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3941  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 02:27:15 PM
(snip)

(EDIT - about "softness". The initial conditions could be 100% ASIC-based, 0% others, as it is now. Then in times of mempool storms, or fork FUD, or whatever, the "others" might be gently pushed up until the situation gets back to normal.)

There can not be soft fork PoW change, it's the hardest of all hard forks.
But but... initial 0%? It's as soft as can be. As long as it doesn't budge from 0%, it's still good ol'bitcoin.

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Keep in mind that no one would more encourage such a change than Jihan Wu. If such thing happen, he will have a ground to a claim BCash is the real Bitcoin, and he knows that claim is false in current situation. I'm afraid he may even really attack Bitcoin just to make some more incentive for PoW change.
I haven't considered this. It seems a bit far fetched, but not totally out of this world.

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IMHO the only thing that can justify PoW change is Quantum computing attack on SHA2, and Cuckoo Cycle is Quantum resistant btw. Doing it now is jumping in the abyss just for the sake of change.
Yes, a quantum computing breakout (unlikely for several years to come) would destroy Bitcoin as we know it. Having the necessary machinery for PoW in place could be a safety exit. Just insert Cuckoo Cycle into an "other hashing algos" slot.
3942  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 02:20:35 PM
I'd posted my reply about PoW change before reading the posts by Icygreen, flipperish, flynn and others.

I, too, would like the full nodes to have a say in the relative distribution of hash functions, but full nodes are too easy to sybyl attack. PoS vote is also dangerous, because established miners have huge availability they could employ to crush GPU- or CPU- friendly functions. That's why we will eventually need to figure out more game theory to have a stable solution.
Could you elaborate on the bold part?

PoS - Those who can prove ownership of coin get more votes.

Short: An established miner has (or can quickly have) lots of coin lying around, so he can steer the voting result more easily than a few hodlers with the same total stake (read: stash).

Longer: Giving each satoshi the same voting weight is a hard problem, possibly unsolvable. What is needed is a hypothetical system of incentives that makes GPU- and CPU- miner owned satoshis as heavy as ASIC-miner owned ones. Is such a system practical to implement? Does it ever exist? I doubt it. That's why PoS is dangerous.

Proof of Stake has coin age to consider, any participant has to first be fully upto date and part of a network for some time in order to then be part of the staking process which even then is randomised not on demand.    Theres only some average rate at which a large holder will stake not that they can force participation.   POS is dangerous if the majority of a crypto currency is liquid on an exchange perhaps, its unlikely to be especially cheap to undermine in this way
That's a good point that I haven't considered fully. Guess I need to read up a bit more.

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I do imagine Proof of stake is going to be part of Ethereum this year as they move to make their transactions cheaper, faster and more efficient.   Vitalik Buterin seems quite focused on avoiding the problems bitcoin transactions had with mining fees and POS is the most viable route ?
Buterin would do better to first make sure transactions are irreversible.
3943  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 02:16:55 PM
People who can't compete always want to change the rules of the game.
Especially if the game is about keeping open competition.

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I don't care if there is only one shovel maker. Good for them for being successful at what they do.
I do care, if they can charge whatever they want for their shovels, to the point of suppressing shoveling when they don't want it to happen.

Monopoly is never good, except for the monopolist. Don't jbreher yourself into a corner.
3944  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 01:39:35 PM
I've been considering running a mining rig simply for the education it would offer but I'm on the fence knowing that it may not be profitable and also realizing it will likely change drastically in the short term future. I also don't want to buy from jihan with bcash some overpriced, outdated box.
I mean, I seed my torrents properly and I'd prefer to contribute to BTC pools but where to start today?
We're in the same position. Mining has become a hardcore game for big players. It's financially risky and you are subjected to the whims and abuses of people like Jihan. Not to mention the policies of governments. They can't stop bitcoin, but they can stop miners fairly easily, giving the minimum mining farm size of today.

That's another reason why I would love some real decentralization by soft PoW modulation.
3945  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 01:30:57 PM
I, too, would like the full nodes to have a say in the relative distribution of hash functions

I would like an option for semi-full nodes, where they can store fractions of the blockchain bittorrent-like, and above all incentives for them and the full nodes, like a small fraction of the fees.
A kind of distributed checkpointing? That would be nice, I agree.

However, Bittorrent as a protocol has a lot of back-and-forth chatter, more so if it's trackerless and decentralized (DHT). That's why it just won't play nice with mesh networks like TOR. I don't know anything about the technicals of checkpointing, though. There might be some alternative solutions, but their efficiency needs to be accurately evaluated.
3946  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 01:22:49 PM
I'd posted my reply about PoW change before reading the posts by Icygreen, flipperish, flynn and others.

I, too, would like the full nodes to have a say in the relative distribution of hash functions, but full nodes are too easy to sybyl attack. PoS vote is also dangerous, because established miners have huge availability they could employ to crush GPU- or CPU- friendly functions. That's why we will eventually need to figure out more game theory to have a stable solution.
Could you elaborate on the bold part?

PoS - Those who can prove ownership of coin get more votes.

Short: An established miner has (or can quickly have) lots of coin lying around, so he can steer the voting result more easily than a few hodlers with the same total stake (read: stash).

Longer: Giving each satoshi the same voting weight is a hard problem, possibly unsolvable. What is needed is a hypothetical system of incentives that makes GPU- and CPU- miner owned satoshis as heavy as ASIC-miner owned ones. Is such a system practical to implement? Does it ever exist? I doubt it. That's why PoS is dangerous.
3947  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 01:11:26 PM
Also, if I'm allowed to dream wildly on future Bitcoin technology development, I would love some kind of blockchain checkpointing to be implemented. This allows ultra-light nodes to have no trust (or very little) when first syncing.
3948  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 01:05:20 PM
I'd posted my reply about PoW change before reading the posts by Icygreen, flipperish, flynn and others.

I, too, would like the full nodes to have a say in the relative distribution of hash functions, but full nodes are too easy to sybyl attack. PoS vote is also dangerous, because established miners have huge availability they could employ to crush GPU- or CPU- friendly functions. That's why we will eventually need to figure out more game theory to have a stable solution.
3949  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 12:56:29 PM
This is why GPU/CPU mining is a lot better than ASICs i think.

GPU companies have to build&sell GPUs no matter what because gamers need to game. CPU manufacturers have to build&sell CPUs no matter what because there will be a demand whether people mine crypto or not. Nvidia/AMD/Intel will be making hardware no matter what. They can't be deceived by evil crypto criminals.

But ASICs? This is cancer.

There is no way Nvidia/Intel build HW and mine Bitcoin without getting noticed but Bitmain can. Because that's their only job. Nvidia and the others can't run a 2 businesses at once. They are making GPU/CPU's and we are exploiting their business. Good for us.

Maybe Cobra is right. Better late than ever.
My opinion is that preparing for a soft PoW change would be a good thing. Keywords: preparing and soft.

A monopoly on mining is an evil thing. It keeps decentralization from really taking place. However, changing PoW drastically without a grace period would only alienate the "good" miners - probably ruin them, and piss them off enough to turn them (rightfully) bad.

One way could be to have a PoW that alternates between a few different hash functions - some of which hard to implement on ASICs, probably because of insane RAM requirements although there are alternatives. The alternance should be based on past history; the percentage of SHA-256 blocks could be dynamic, so "good" miners are incentivized to keep their percentage high by maintaining good demeanor. Or there could be a multiple PoW in each block, so that both a SHA-256 proof and some other proof(s) are necessary for validation. Each PoW function should maintain a different difficulty scale, and the difficulties could be combined into some overall metric. Such a system would be highly tweakable, and adapt dynamically.

(EDIT - about "softness". The initial conditions could be 100% ASIC-based, 0% others, as it is now. Then in times of mempool storms, or fork FUD, or whatever, the "others" might be gently pushed up until the situation gets back to normal.)

Any working solution should be designed with game theory in mind, not only the obvious complexity theory. A long check on testnet would be necessary, to figure out at least the complexity part, if not the game theory part.

(Inb4 - Bitcoin is a scam designed to centralize because no digital money can ever blah blah the Joos blah blah gold and silver.)
3950  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 24, 2018, 04:38:33 PM
I quite agree with your idea of things, bitserve.

As a suggestion, try to partner with a woman that has his own fully paid home and almost as much money than you. Don't let her ever sell that home (she can rent it though), specially not if you are planning to have children (with her). Everything will be easier if when things get messed up.

P.S.: Oh, as a side note... you will soon discover that many of those woman are not that much (desperately) interested into having children either. Wonder why.

... and, as someone also said, from a statistical point of view, such a woman wouldn't be too interested into having a relationship with someone with about as much money as her. Hypergamy and things.
3951  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 24, 2018, 04:27:43 PM
I really don't appreciate this additional gag gift the bear whales are serving up today. Gee whiz, my 50th hasn't even arrived in my part of the world, yet. Come on BTC markets, you have a little less than 12 hours to turn this around.  Angry Friday is going to be hard enough for me.  Cry
Whine and you shall receive!  Cheesy

Hope this trend holds. Waking up to $10,000+ BTC was a nice birthday surprise. Please BTC, don't make my 50th harder than it already is.
Sorry I've been away and couldn't congratulate you. Smile, my friend, smile! They say 50 is the new 40, so life is just about to begin again! Smiley

And bitcoin will rise, as she always does.
3952  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2018, 05:55:15 PM
I'm not sure what your deal is, yo, but my chocolate starfish could use a good tongue-banging.
The number and variety of ways you have to express this single concept is mind-boggling (and quite entertaining). One more reason to stick to this thread for me  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
3953  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2018, 04:48:52 PM
Bitcoin ate my hamster!

Bitcorn is eating my balls since it dropped below $12k Sad

Sad retiredfag is sad.
A humble suggestion from a serene, non-sad, not-yet-retired straightie.

Just live on your scrawny, meager, pathetic already-cashed-out stash for a year or so. A couple maybe, if it is not that paltry. Try not to think of that ball-munching drunken badger too much (ok, admittedly not that easy if you keep on hanging out here with us spooks).

After a year of pitiful poverty, I bet you'll see things in a different light. Who knows, the smelly critter might sober up, even. Of course, you still have to suffer being temporarily poor   Wink

And mind your balls, get them out of the corn and into more deserving ginger places. Or wherever you like, as long as you keep them safe from erosion.
3954  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2018, 02:17:36 PM
Back from a 7 day ban!! Wohoooooooooooo YES We're going to 9k like it or not. Than back to test defending resistance, I call a breakout next run

How the fuck did you get yourself banned in a place that lets fascist roaches roam unchecked?
Must have been a different thread with stricter rules.

There are different threads?  Shocked Huh
I'd assumed the temp ban was from the whole bitcointalk.org site. I was guessing, might be wrong.
3955  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2018, 02:14:30 PM
Back from a 7 day ban!! Wohoooooooooooo YES We're going to 9k like it or not. Than back to test defending resistance, I call a breakout next run

How the fuck did you get yourself banned in a place that lets fascist roaches roam unchecked?
Must have been a different thread with stricter rules.
3956  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2018, 02:12:20 PM
(snip)
The NUMBERS, JayJuanGee, the NUMBERS! Don't you know we all read your posts just for the juicy probabilities with 4 significant digits after the decimal point??  Angry
Don't remind me.  I am declining in my segregating amalgamated skill-set package (as jbreher might refer to it) and I cannot even keep up.
(snip)
2) buying more BTC, just in case (perhaps 34.8% odds... o.k... im slipping, im slipping), prices go below $6,666.
Not a slip, but a step back into the right direction. But still only 1 digit. Keep working at it!  Smiley
3957  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2018, 01:38:30 PM
Also once again.

Notice

How

Everything

Is Pegged

To

Bitcoin

I remember a time when it was the complete opposite.
Any explanations on this development?

The whales control more than you think. They control the floats of all the major altcoins, and peg their trading bots to the Bitcoin price so that small traders "have nowhere to run." That is, they will only pump the coins they want to pump as an out to falling prices elsewhere.

I have to agree with this reading of things. Torque might be a master of paranoid thinking and a conspiracy nut, but more often than not subsequent events agree with his (broad stroked, not numerically pinpointed) predictions.
3958  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2018, 01:33:37 PM
Also once again.

Notice

How

Everything

Is Pegged

To

Bitcoin

I remember a time when it was the complete opposite.
Any explanations on this development?

I like your theory:

Bitcoin

To

Is Pegged

Everything

How
Why
U
Yoda
Like
Talk?
3959  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2018, 01:31:15 PM
I know offtopic posts are frowned upon here, and some topics are more off than other, but I'll risk it.

Have you heard about cryptocurrencies? Well there's this nifty thing called bitcoin, it's my favorite.
It's holding 10.5 k-ish.


What is that supposed to mean?  You are bullish and hoping, or what?
I was expressing sarcastic discontent with all the racial/save the earth/left/right irrelevant talk, just trying to steer discussion into honey badger related territory.   Tongue

Nice to see you're (still, always) on it! Grin

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Let me ask you a semi-personal question which is a kind of after-the-fact assessment regarding how you faired through our dip down to $6k?  Are you of the opinion that you largely ran out of money to buy BTC between $6k and $8k, even though you were able to buy some BTC in those price ranges?  Were you able to adjust some of your strategy in order to possibly better prepare in the future, or are you largely hoping that we are out of this downward price pickle?
I almost ran out. I kept placing buy orders hoping/thinking "it can't possibly go much lower than this". So I accumulated quite a bit (well, everything is relative) barely shy of selling grandma to buy moar.

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Let me report my own personal scenario from the mid-September 2017 40% correction down from $4,980 to $2,970 - which was that after going through that situation, I had to readjust a considerable amount of my preparations, which actually caused me to oversell a bit from our BTC rebounding back up from $2,970, and really I did not feel that I completely recuperated until we started to break upwards back into new ATHs.. and then the icing on the cake restructuring came for me around 2x higher in the $10k arena and further more when we passed $15k which allowed a fuckload of restructuring and even added cockiness....
Good for you. I wasn't as forward-looking (or well funded?) as you, but I managed to do fairly well.

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So, I am anticipating that even though you are making recovery plans from the unexpected over correction of 70% down to $5,920 that you are going to be in a much better position to really restructure your plan as BTC gets back up and maybe even becoming more solid in your approach as we assume the ATH again (assuming that we accomplish such either this year or a worse bull case scenario would be that it takes longer than a year to get above ATH again).... yeah, yeah, yeah, Beara readers, I understand also that there are also bear scenarios that could cause worse outcomes, even though I believe that a lot of us in this thread, including yours truly put a bit more weight on the probability of bull scenarios in the coming year rather than bear scenarios..

The NUMBERS, JayJuanGee, the NUMBERS! Don't you know we all read your posts just for the juicy probabilities with 4 significant digits after the decimal point??  Angry

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and that is part of the reason that we are in bitcoin and part of the reason why we get so freaking excited about bitcoin.
If only that reckless badger would stop drinking and driving... eh Hairy guy?
3960  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2018, 01:04:27 PM
Some time ago we had a discussion here about a possible issue with the Lightning Network. Some big blocker was suggesting that the Lightning Network is doomed to fail because routing and because problems.

The potential problem is similar to a double spend attempt. Briefly and roughly: Alice has a channel with Bob, Alice sends funds to Bob and while Bob is offline she broadcasts the channel state as it was before she spent the funds, thus undoing the spend. However, if anyone broadcasts the correct (later) channel state, Alice is done: the whole channel balance goes to Bob. Serves her right for trying to cheat.

The problem is, if Bob's offline he knows nothing about Alice's wrongdoings, so there must be someone watching the channel for him. This someone could be rewarded by Bob with part of the funds if cheating is discovered (and therefore funds are gained by Bob). I speculated that a bounty market could come into existence. It seems there are already some bounty hunters in the present, clunky version of the LN. They are doing it for free at the moment, since the cost of watching a few channels is negligible.

It's in the comments. The video itself is technical. Mention of the bounty hunters was the topic that spurred the most attention in the discussion.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7xrq5g/lightning_network_and_discreet_log_contracts/

I'm guessing that I may be the aforementioned big blocker. What with our continued conversations over my skepticism and all.
Yes jbreher, that's you. I didn't mention your name explicitly to avoid a tide of ad-hominem noise, but it seems you don't care that much.

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Thanks for posting. I'll read.

There's a lot of layers here. As just one example: 'how much channel state is exposed to outsiders to allow such to police random actors?' But I'll reserve detailed discussion until after I land.
I'll read more carefully, too. I just gave a glance to the top posts. But more importantly, I'd like to listen to the talk on video. It seems rich with technical details, but I really can't stand lengthy videos. I much prefer the organized written form for complex content.
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