Despite being in a worse position after $278B commitment (failed counter-offensive, no air defense left, shortages in equipment and personnel on the front lines, and destroyed power generation capacity), by cutting support by almost half from what it was in 2022, that will now somehow be "sufficient amount to implement the strategy I think the US wants implemented"? Did i understand your point correctly?


I agree with this, only for some reason despite everything that is happening you appear to think that Ukraine can somehow outlast this? Or did i misunderstood you and you now feel that Ukraine is just collateral damage in the game to demilitarizing Russia a bit more, thus why we support but not sending F16s position?

And you theory on US not having any downside and only being a benefactor, conveniently completely ignores China, and that having printer go Brrrr causes inflation, which causes internal issues.

So let me get this straight, Global aid to Ukraine has reached a staggering 253 billion euros committed as of Jan. 15 [2024], or about $278 billion (that's from Feb 2022, so about $139B/yr) and we all see the results of that, no air defense left, collapsing front lines, and destroyed power grid with power outages. But you're saying that the next commitment of $60 billion (just 21% from what was committed before) will somehow totally change everything? You realize how ridiculous that sounds right, do you really expect anyone to believe this?

Edit: Congress Approved $113 Billion of Aid to Ukraine in 2022 but just about a half of that, $60B in 2024 "is time to start rethinking if this was such a great idea in the first place" riiiiiiiiiiight

Surely you must agree that if US really wanted Ukraine to either stop Russia or recover some ground then stopping the aid for 4 months, and not sending tech until it's too late (M777, HIMARS, PATRIOT, ATACMS, F16 etc etc etc...) just sounds like a cruel joke and wouldn't make any sense at all. Now the last point (highlighted) is totally logical. Prolonging the conflict just to annoy Russia a bit longer, little downside for US except some $$. Unfortunately the downside for Ukraine on the other hand, might be unrecoverable, but no one is counting or really seems to care about that now, lets just wave some flags to keep them in the fight a bit longer. Yes, yes, orcs on golfcarts probably without weapons too, just with some slingshots, and Ukraine will totally join NATO any day now, just need to keep the Ukrainian population hanging in there a bit longer...

Do you think the aid is to help Ukraine get back to 1991 borders, or just enough to try and keep it from a complete collapse, to keep it fighting for few more months? The timing and the sudden change of heart of the speaker after he got the intel surely must sound suspect, no? Like all the previous deliveries, that is, not to win but barely enough to keep it in the fight just a bit longer. Or of course it's all just a coincidence...

Which part is irrelevant exactly? Fee is a fee. Not sure why you're picking extremes in volatility in other funds to further your point? In fact to flip this around, if you time it right you might add 2% profit on other funds by exploiting inefficiencies of their market makers (APs), come in when it trades at a discount and exit at a premium

1,3% savings on fees, is about 1,3% relevant regardless how much underlying is moving.

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Hahaha ohh you got me there, yes i'm sure GBTC really cares about keeping their customers happy, you funny, i like you  

Edit: On the bright side we might see a stop on GBTC outflows until mini is listed, meaning price... 

Lol going from 1,5% fee to 0,15% on a mini


and

Ummm GBTC currently holds about BTC304k so 63.204 would represent 20% of existing assets. Thus for GBTC holders 80% @ 1,5%fee, and 20% @ 0,15%fee would still put them at 1,23% fee overall

Edit: Or to look at it from another angle, they would still have BTC241k (BTC304k - BTC63k) waiting to be liquidated...

My opinion is that the decentralized system is operating as intended. There's are fundamental trade offs between decentralization/security and scarcity. Nothing is fundamentally broken just short term spam, for smaller transactions move to L2. Expecting your coffee purchase to be replicated around the world and take up resources on tens of thousands of computers is like going after a fly with a bazooka. That's why L2 was created for smaller transactions, you sacrifice some security for more availability.

With ~5.000 transaction per block, it'll take theoretical maximum of just 5BTC/block to completely keep your 0,001 UTXO unviable, in practice with multiplication effect, and other users on the network it takes much much less to spam bitcoin blockchain.

I was wondering about the fees, this explains it. Interesting how they need to run it as a lottery for the multiplication attack to work. i.e. bunch of idiots waste a ton of their money for a chance where a few might benefit, but PR of some idiot "winning the lottery" might be enough to draw more idiots in. High fees should take care of this problem soon enough, when enough idiots loose their BTC and the rest realize how economically unviable this is.

He claimed that they submitted to do a spin-off with lower fees, but I'll believe it when i see it. He might go down in history as ETF that lost the most from all of the ETFs ever! But the BTC300k AUM they still have is no joke, with upcoming mining supply going down to BTC450/day they can match that with their sell offs for 666 days.

Edit: Also, the inflows to all ETFs except for GBTC are dropping faster than outflows from GBTC. Meaning last weeks we had net outflow from all of the ETFs and looks like this week will be the same.

Congratulations, according to my maths we have survived over 50% unwinding of GBTC. On Jan 10 GBTC held BTC619.187 and today they hold about BTC308.606 which is 49,8% from before the ETF was approved! They still proved supply pressure for few more months, but we're over the hump!

Then we all know which one gets fucked

If it ever comes alive i fully expect the following with its creator

ETFs inflow (besides GBTC) is $125MM in one day or about BTC1.900 in a single day, how is that close to zero!?   must i remind you that in less than a month it'd take over 4 days for global hashpower to mine that much?

There are two options, either someone is now moving from GBTC into real BTC, or we have new player outside of ETFs scooping up the corn, either way, this will too shall pass

https://twitter.com/ryan_x_charles/status/1770121773788393858

Huh, for some reason i always envisioned this moment to be more enjoyable than it is. Oh well, guess we grew out of that silliness and now have bigger targets. Honeybadger...

So another day of -1%, leaving them with ~58% from what they started with on 11Jan. Speculators will speculate on how low they'll go, and how fast they'll get there, but it won't be too long before they fade into history.

Yep they started with BTC619k, already lost over BTC250k (~40%), so as of yesterday they're down to BTC369k. I don't think people realize just how much corn that is. We're about to enter an epoch where only BTC164k will be mined in a year, and only BTC656k will be mined in the next epoch (4yrs).

Now of course they could've just kept their fees in line with everyone else, be a hero in the community and create a legacy, becoming the oldest largest and still growing ETF which even Blackrock couldn't touch, but no, those fuckers decided to kill the golden goose, and fuck everyone with 1,5% for another few years while everyone runs to Blackrock. I guess the math is simple, 0,2% from BTC619k is only BTC1.238yr in fees. So with 1,50% fees while they manage to hold on above BTC82.533 they're better off, after that...
I guess they saw how much they fucked up and now trying to do some damage control

We hit current price (~$68k) back on March 4th. Since then, in those 10 days while price didn't change ETFs scooped up BTC66k while only BTC9k were mined, meaning BTC57k were cashed out and sodled to ETFs, which i'm sure they're thankful for. As long as ETFs are taking in more than ~BTC400/day there's only one way this can go.

They were going to be exchanged the next day with their names on the list, i don't expect them to qualify as a high risk for escape. If they're loaded and unloaded with more guards, and shackled during the flight why would you need more? How many agent escort prisoners inside the plane in the west? Cars might get ambushed but planes?

You seem to misunderstand the targeted audience here. I'm pretty sure we're already beyond a point where Russia wants, needs or even can prove anything to Ukraine. The standard operations in such cases is first to deny, and then claim of false flag operation.

I believe all other attacks inside Russia were with "Ukrainian" missiles, old soviet stuff that they had in stock before the 2022. All new weapons are provided on a condition that they won't be used inside Russia. If you know of a patriot missiles used inside of Russia (outside of Crimea which west doesn't consider Russian) post it here i'd love to read about it. You can think that it's defense all you want, but the reality is Ukraine is restricted because it was never meant to win, thought this was already clear to everyone, did you really not know this?

This is back from May 25, 2023 when to get PR boost, Ukraine used Humvees to cross into Russia, it was a big deal, as you can see no one tried to claim defense then and they covered it up by claiming it wasn't Ukrainians there at all. And we haven't heard of any Humvees on Russian soil since then.


And this is exactly why Russia is doing what it's doing, to undermine the support, and killed POWs will brings extra publicity, i fully expect them to post most graphic images, pictures of shrapnel, flight path etc... during UN hearings to try to get on the front pages of the news, all in due time. I'm sure Ukrainians don't care, but the rest of the world would rather not see Russia provide anti-ship missiles to anti-western groups and then be able to use ignorance as defense, luckily so far that's just not how export of advanced weapons works. (and hopefully this won't set yet another terrible new precedent) As far as which exact NATO country the delivery happened through, it's as important as whether Russian anti-ship missiles would be exported directly or through Belarus i.e. no one cares at all.

Edit: if "It does nothing to delivery times" then what's your genius theory on why haven't they been delivered already? And when will they if ever?

UAVs and UWVs (water?) are definitely changing the landscape of the battlefields. Guessing their profile is low enough to hide between waves from the radar, and small arms doesn't work well vs a swarm. Country doesn't have to have a navy/air force to use drones, Iran is not much of an aerial power but we all know how devastating their drones are. As far as drumming up Ukraine abilities, with the full intel of US and NATO, all of their satellites and aircraft constantly patrolling the black sea, and the provided drones with full comms, these sea drones have as much to do with Ukraine as military pilots flying for Vietnam had to do with Vietnam.

Your attempt to poke holes and question Il-76 tragedy is just silly. What is the typical ratio of enforcement agents to prisoners on the transport planes? Russians are just timing this to present a full investigation and reveal evidence to courts/UN at maximum publicity when the timing suits them the best. Why on earth would Russia reveal their cards now so Ukraine can prepare defense and come up with new version of the events? Having tangible proof that American supplied military hardware was used on Russian territory removes US's plausible deniability defense, and forces them to make a choice. Either hard stop on using missiles on Russian territory or de jure US becomes part of the conflict, neither is a good options, of course US can continues to ignore this, but that would set an even worst precedent where now Iran/Russia/others would be able to directly provide missiles to proxies for attack on US/EU assets. Total diplomacy fail, on one hand holding Iran responsible for their drones used by others, while on another attempting to distance itself and claim US is not responsible that their weapons are used inside Russia  

Edit: In fact it almost seems too perfect of a case for Russia. American missiles take down a plane full of Ukrainian POWs inside Russia, this will be for the books. What do you think this does for F16 and Taurus delivery timelines?

+$38MM yesterday is about BTC900 inflow, which is down from about BTC4,5k inflow the day before, but still currently sucking up all of the newly minted BTC worldwide, even if inflows will further fall 50% it'll still be eating up all of the new BTC in 2,5months with nothing left for the rest of the world ...