Yeah geopolitics. Russia is 'uuuge and has gas, Germany is smaller and needs gas, could they continue to stay competitive in the market if they have to pay 2x the market price for USA's freedom LNG? Shenanigans to continue. Think the most underrated quote from Trump here is "I don't know what you can do about it" |
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Welcome back $40k+  When $100k? Hopefully after Biden announces US stance on BTC. Or could this be the front running of that announcement. |
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why not? plenty of reasons..most obvious is I dont know many foolish enough to sell their coin at a price much lower than currently observed.... most certainly not around here anyway However, I do know the road both ways are much closer than they appear. An all out ground war between Russia and NATO...or something more calamitous occurring could easily drive the price within that range. Even a protracted conflict between Ukraine and Russia will have noticeable effects I think. ------ -idle thoughts that have taken me quite some time to sort thru-How did this come to be I sit and wonder... Warfare changed somewhere...some might say it was August 6th, 1945..some December 2nd, 1942 or maybe it was November 8th, 1895.. Nuclear weapons I mean we have to talk about it right? This fucking madman is sitting over there right now with his finger on the button. How and why have we come to a place where we threaten and hold hostage the entire population of this planet? Yes... ALL OF US. Seriously we need to get a handle on this right fucking now. Someone who Putin trusts needs to step and say dude..walk this back man...just walk it back. What ever you think you need or want from the West can be worked out another way. Or...he needs to be put down..because I dont think the guy will step down. The reality of what is needed. The 3.5% Rule https://carrcenter.hks.harvard.edu/publications/35-rule-how-small-minority-can-change-worldhttps://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-worldIn each case, civil resistance by ordinary members of the public trumped the political elite to achieve radical change. Quite extraordinarily..nonviolent movements prove the most successful. Looking at hundreds of campaigns over the last century, Chenoweth found that nonviolent campaigns are twice as likely to achieve their goals as violent campaigns. And although the exact dynamics will depend on many factors, she has shown it takes around 3.5% of the population actively participating in the protests to ensure serious political change. That would be 5,111,332 people in Russia and 277,556,216 people globally. Can we do this as a species? Can enough people stand up and say enough is enough! Another filter...a keyhole to pass through. Its not just in Russia..its in the United States, the EU, India..China...its global and needs to be brought to heel. The nation states and autocrats who use fear, death and destruction to foster compliance from the general population. These cartels of weapons industry that perpetuate the seeds of war. The last thing Ukraine needs right now is more guns, planes and bombs. It needs the people of Russia to realise they have been duped again by the political elite. It needs Peace. apologise if this is disjointed or filled with half formed thoughts...got a pretty good buzz going too.We figured it out back in the 60s with MAD. Cooler heads prevailed, world realized that big powers need some space around them to feel safe (Cuba and US). Now we decided to test that theory again and see if Russia really needs that cushion. Regional conflict is being escalated into a global one. Now no one can back down without loosing face, we got to come to an edge before powers can sit down, do their dick measuring contest, then deescalate and pencil in some new lines on this globe. The closer we get to the edge the longer everyone shuts up about the new lines, cause you know, we almost just went over the edge. So far, odds seems to be good that it'll happen before someone slips on that red button. Should then repeat again with China and Taiwan, India and Pakistan etc ... someone always wants to push that line so this is the best our species could come up with. |
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Putin's invasion of Ukraine is impossible to predict. The only certainty is that the situation is escalating rapidly and will likely become even messier before it improves. Even if he succeeds in taking over Ukraine, he just set in motion a chain reaction that will strengthen NATO to levels it has never seen before. He can continue to wreak havoc inside Ukraine, but it seems he signed his own "death warrant", and most likely his own regime will try to get rid of him.
But Putin is causing Ukraine a great deal of suffering, which I worry about more than the political or economic impact. My main concern is for the people of Ukraine, because it is likely they will suffer the most from a prolonged war that won't end anytime soon. As I write this, I keep wondering how much longer the people in Ukraine can possibly withstand the pressure the Russian army is putting on them. I pray for the people of Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPxAVzP-O3cRussian soldiers are being killed by a truckload. That is why Putin wants to 'negotiate'. More Russian soldiers were killed so far than in the early days of the war in Afghanistan. https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1497983902614315008This boggles my mind. Ukraine's health ministry said on Sunday that 352 civilians, including 14 children, had been killed since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-invasion-ukraine-kills-352-civilians-including-14-children-2022-02-27So Russia is loosing 10 soldiers and 2 armored vehicles ... for every civilian death? This is either the most humane military "operation" (comparing to Kosovo, Iraq, Syria etc...) or the numbers are way off, fog of war? |
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Do we think China is starting to have any second thoughts about the carpe diem they might have been tempted by?
I gotta admit. I have always been afraid that Hyperbitcoinization would be accompanied by geopolitical upheaval and possibly war.
Chicken? Egg?
It's not turning out really how I had expected, really.
Yeah China bothers me, perhaps they're still waiting for something bigger to make their move? Honestly cannot imagine how hyperbitcoinization can happen without some major geopolitical event. Probably good that its not happening now. Like been said before It would have been nice to get this attention in any other context...
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The people who know Putin the best -- people I know in Russia -- are worried about his recent nuclear statement. The people who know him the least are saying it's cheap talk. Michael McFaul United States Ambassador to Russia from 2012 to 2014 https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1498065915665022983Corn going down is quiet annoying |
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And using a last resort nuclear financial option has a lot to do with reality? Logic being taking someones money and bringing financial collapse is not a declaration of war? Kinda weak if that's the best we're playing with
If it was done out of the blue that wouldn't be nice. But the war was declared by Putin. That's the reality. If you have a way to stop him I'm sure the world is listening. Any side that raises stakes up to nuclear (financial) options and pushes escalations to real nuclear war is fully retarded in my book. |
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Ok so we got the odds, now on to figuring out the prize. Upside is easy, Putin is toppled Russia is a shithole. But downside is...nuclear war? The best our diplomacy can come up with is lets use a nuclear financial option on a 69yr Putin, and hope really hard he doesn't take it as a declaration of war as he said he would?
I wasn't talking about the nuke odds, only about the odds of uniting for or against Putin if the situation in Russia gets really dire. As we've seen recently and not just recently, things Putin says have little to do with reality. He may launch or not launch the nukes for any reason or no reason at all. Trying to appease him, or to guess what he'll do next - doesn't work. And using a last resort nuclear financial option has a lot to do with reality? Logic being taking someones money and bringing financial collapse is not a declaration of war? Kinda weak if that's the best we're playing with |
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Right, nice, so going all in on a hope that their total financial collapse would divide Russians instead of uniting them. Where do you put the odds at?
Quite the contrary, uniting against Putin and his cronies is a better outcome for everyone involved. The odds of that are probably higher than the other way round, because the lies from Kremlin are already outrageous and will have to get even more blatant if they try to keep the lid on it. Of course Soviets were able to sustain the lying for 70 years but they didn't have the intertubes. Ok so we got the odds, now on to figuring out the prize. Upside is easy, Putin is toppled Russia is a shithole. But downside is...nuclear war? The best our diplomacy can come up with is lets use a nuclear financial option on a 69yr Putin, and hope really hard he doesn't take it as a declaration of war as he said he would? |
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To secure their livelihoods we have no choice but to declare war including the use of nuclear weapons on those cities.
I think you mean to commit a suicide... nuking the West won't un-collapse the ruble, it will just turn Russia and most of the world into a radioactive dump. Russians are reasonably smart, they will eventually figure out that the best way to fix this is to get rid of the Kremlin clown, it's just taking them a minute. Right, nice, so going all in on a hope that their total financial collapse would divide Russians instead of uniting them. Where do you put the odds at? |
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This will be a problem for the hotels, not for the guests.
I'm sure the guests will be overly happy to have their (early booking) advance payments lost because they cannot pay (in euro) the rest for their accommodation for the holidays. Pretty sure taking all off Russias reserve's would collapse the ruble. Hotels would be the last of the worries. Now imagine this, Putin comes out addressing his nation of 150mil people saying that US and EU countries that Russian hasn't even touched and are not part of this conflict just used a nuclear financial option on them, they stole everyone's pensions, college savings funds, and all of their savings (which technically would be true, not getting into justifications). Central banks located in the following cities...are holding all of their futures and their children's futures hostage. To secure their livelihoods we have no choice but to declare war including the use of nuclear weapons on those cities. Those cities have 7days to give back what is rightfully ours and was never theirs. Doomsday clock moves to one min to midnight, EU starts a meeting on whether they can hold the funds at the direct risk of a nuclear war at T- 7days. With every passing day price of ammo, guns, gold, bitcoin skyrockets, and all of the currencies collapse. Welcome to Madmax 2022 Madman playing chicken with everyone's lives, seeing who blinks first. Thats where millions years of evolution got us. |
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West to cut some Russian banks off from Swift.The EU, US and their allies have agreed to cut off a number of Russian banks from the main international payment system, Swift.
The assets of Russia's central bank will also be frozen, limiting Russia's ability to access its overseas reserves.
The intention is to "further isolate Russia from the international financial system", a joint statement said.
Russia is heavily reliant on the Swift system for its key oil and gas exports.
The joint sanctions are the harshest measures imposed to date on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
Looks like the stakes are being raised once again with a nuclear financial option. Putin might find out what NYKNYC means. I do recall Putin saying that doing this would be considered a declaration of war. Guy with the following tech from the 1960s being cornered with total collapse, smart move? lets all go all in and see who blinks first, what could possibly go wrong  Tsar Bomba - The flare was visible at a distance of more than 1,000 km.[52] It was observed in Norway, Greenland and Alaska.
- The explosion's nuclear mushroom rose to a height of 67 km.[14] The shape of the "hat" was two-tiered; the diameter of the upper tier was estimated at 95 km (59 mi), the lower tier at 70 km (43 mi). The cloud was observed 800 km (500 mi) from the explosion site.
- The blast wave circled the globe three times,[16] with the first one taking 36 hours and 27 minutes.
- A seismic wave in the earth's crust, generated by the shock wave of the explosion, circled the globe three times.
- The atmospheric pressure wave resulting from the explosion was recorded three times in New Zealand
- Glass shattered in windows 780 km (480 mi) from the explosion in a village on Dikson Island.
- Ionization of the atmosphere caused interference to radio communications even hundreds of kilometers from the test site for about 40 minutes.
Meanwhile China finds out that their $3,2trillion in foreign reserves is an IOU that no one has to pay if they don't want to  Ball might also be in their court, either they accept the precedent that "their" foreign reserves are not really theirs (and forget about Taiwan) or they re-raise and ask for their money... Man humans are really fucking stupid |
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As some others have said already, banning Russia from SWIFT isn't very useful, and may in fact be counterproductive long-term. Banning them from SWIFT is like this: Imagine that most of Russia's exports were sent to the outside world via UPS, and you ban Russia from using UPS. It's very disruptive short-term (for both sides of the trade), but they're just going to switch to Fedex or whatever. Banning Russia from SWIFT is like that: it's short-term very disruptive, but it's not that hard for Russia to find an alternative, and long-term the ban weakens SWIFT. Banning Russia from SWIFT sounds like you're banning sending money to Russia by any means, but it's not. The West could ban sending money to Russia by any means, but Europe is highly dependent on Russian imports, so they're just going to pretend to "completely cut off Russia" by banning them from SWIFT.
The most damaging thing the West could do without putting boots on the ground would probably be to confiscate Russia's central bank reserves like the US did with Afghanistan's central bank.
If you wanted to get rid of Putin ASAP, I think the most effective thing that could be done would be to put a $1 billion bounty on Putin's head, plus a promise of immunity for any past misdeeds. You have to imagine that many of Putin's close associates would rather this nutcase be dead. The West was more-or-less fine with Russia's internal authoritarianism, and Russia's oligarchs had a good thing going, but now Putin has screwed it all up for them. All of these sanctions are clearly designed to eventually make Russians angry enough to get Putin toppled, but a bounty+immunity would be a lot more effective. (I think that issuing this sort of bounty would be considered an act of war, though.)
I was surprised that Kyiv didn't fall last night, and I keep hoping that the Russians are somehow fought off, but it's almost unimaginable that Kyiv isn't going to fall eventually. The force differential is just too large. If Zelenskyy is dedicated to the idea of Ukraine fighting a protracted resistance in the same vein as Afghanistan or Vietnam, he should record a really good speech to broadcast after he is inevitably killed by the Russians, so that he can become an ideal martyr.
  Tsar Bomba the most powerful nuclear weapon ever created and tested ...their instruments indicated a yield of 50 Mt (209 PJ) ...In theory, the bomb would have had a yield in excess of 100 Mt (418 PJ) if it had included the uranium-238[14] fusion tamper which figured in the design but which was omitted in the test to reduce radioactive fallout ...8-kilometre-wide (5.0 mi) fireball reached nearly as high as the altitude of the release plane and was visible at almost 1,000 km (620 mi) away.[49] The mushroom cloud was about 67 km (42 mi) high[50] (over seven times the height of Mount Everest) - The flare was visible at a distance of more than 1,000 km.[52] It was observed in Norway, Greenland and Alaska.
- The explosion's nuclear mushroom rose to a height of 67 km.[14] The shape of the "hat" was two-tiered; the diameter of the upper tier was estimated at 95 km (59 mi), the lower tier at 70 km (43 mi). The cloud was observed 800 km (500 mi) from the explosion site.
- The blast wave circled the globe three times,[16] with the first one taking 36 hours and 27 minutes.
- A seismic wave in the earth's crust, generated by the shock wave of the explosion, circled the globe three times.
- The atmospheric pressure wave resulting from the explosion was recorded three times in New Zealand
- Glass shattered in windows 780 km (480 mi) from the explosion in a village on Dikson Island.
- Ionization of the atmosphere caused interference to radio communications even hundreds of kilometers from the test site for about 40 minutes.
And this was 1960 technology. Lets all read up on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction and then think how much we want to move the doomsday clock forward before we start putting bounties on heads. This blue marble is already just 100min away from midnight  |
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From the latest that i could find, Ukraine reports 160 missile strikes, and 137 casualties. Either Russia is pounding sand, cant hit their targets, or there are a ton of unmanned targets in Ukraine?
Of course they weren't hanging around waiting to be killed. Most missile strikes targeted air force and air defenses, with only a couple hitting civilian targets. But those who died did so in style: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z94QWGO3ILoYeah if the recording is true its truly epic. RIP brave souls. Whats even more chilling, it appears that the Ukrainian forces are speaking Russian between each other. Well, fog Ukraine island defenders who told Russian navy ‘go fuck yourself’ may still be alive
Ukrainian soldiers believed to have died while defending an island after telling a Russian warship to “go fuck yourself”, may still be alive, according to Ukraine’s State Border Guard. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/ukraine-island-defenders-who-told-russian-officer-go-fuck-yourself-may-still-be-alive |
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Seeing scattered early reports that they are going forward with locking Russian banks out of Swift.
Steady as she goes.
goes where? to a bigger war? We should have pushed hard for negotiations, instead, even now, before the severity of this goes to something incomprehensible with very large casualties. Additionally, if you have a large fine, levy or reparations applied to Russia, how are you going to get paid? This will only make them completely belligerent and not prone to any negotiations. Before, they said that it (SWIFT disconnect) would be considered as a declaration of war. Not sure what to make of such statement made in the past, we shall see now how it develops. Shortly after SWIFT removal, i would be watching for the signs of general mobilization there, and if it happens, then SWHTF. Yeah that's the hard part in negotiations. On one side try to corner Putin and not give him an inch (Ukraine in NATO, force him to sell gas to EU through Ukraine no Nordsream2) but if you over do it, hell just take over Ukraine, then it definitely wont be in NATO and he wont care about NordStream2, hell gladly sell gas to EU through Ukraine. It appears negotiations have over did it, and unless sanctions will be enough to topple Putin, think negotiations can be considered as a a loss. Ukraine ready for talks with Russia on neutral status - official...including on neutral status regarding NATO... https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-ready-talks-russia-neutral-100400582.htmlEdit: cleared things up Edi2: Moscow’s security demands include a pause of NATO’s eastward expansion, especially in Ukraine and Georgia, as well as a rollback of NATO troops in Eastern Europe.
The United States has dismissed those demands as nonstarters, demanding Russia pull back its forces from the border with Ukraine and instead offering dialogue with Moscow on issues including military exercises and transparency, as well as the placement of missiles.
...
“As I’ve said repeatedly, whether they choose the path of diplomacy and dialogue, whether they decide to renew aggression against Ukraine, we’re prepared either way,” Blinken told reporters. January 27, 2022 https://www.voanews.com/a/us-responds-to-russia-s-security-demands-renewing-call-for-diplomacy-/6413910.html |
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Sanctions always hurt both sides. Need to be careful not to shoot yourself in the foot. "targeted" SWIFT restrictions sounds like BS talk to appease the masses “At the same time, we are working flat out on how to limit the collateral damage of a disconnection from #SWIFT so that it hits the right people. What we need is a targeted and functional restriction of SWIFT." https://twitter.com/germanyintheeu/status/1497629293937049606?s=20&t=Y6In-oQI9lj9gA1sz5xrKgYeah, likely BS. SWIFT disconnection is the financial equivalent of nukes. China will help Rus, of course, although they will do so half-heartedly, and only so they can test their new digital renminbi thingy and/or gauge how much such disconnection impacts the disconnected. They could be next, if the shit hits Taiwan's fan. Freezing Putin's or Lavrov's assets abroad? That's a joke. Might as well try to freeze his noncustodial btc wallet (which I'm sure is quite fat, incidentally). If they really cut off Russia from SWIFT, it will be the largest testbed for btc to date. And yes, there will be the "bad btc, helps criminals" angle. But the people will see and understand. In Russia, in Canada, everywhere. Interesting times indeed. NEW: Agreement reached on cutting #Russia out of #SWIFT
'Selected Russian banks' will be removed from the system - say EU, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Canada and United States https://twitter.com/MarkerJParker/status/1497696759945957376MORE: Russian banks which have previously been sanctioned will be disconnected from SWIFT; other Russian banks not affected https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1497696270579863559Nothing burger |
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Sanctions always hurt both sides. Need to be careful not to shoot yourself in the foot. "targeted" SWIFT restrictions sounds like BS talk to appease the masses “At the same time, we are working flat out on how to limit the collateral damage of a disconnection from #SWIFT so that it hits the right people. What we need is a targeted and functional restriction of SWIFT." https://twitter.com/germanyintheeu/status/1497629293937049606?s=20&t=Y6In-oQI9lj9gA1sz5xrKgYeah, likely BS. SWIFT disconnection is the financial equivalent of nukes. China will help Rus, China has found itself walking a diplomatic tightrope after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine took many in Beijing by surprise.
It was reported today that several Chinese public banks are limiting financing to purchase raw materials from Russia for fear of Western sanctions should they be seen to be supporting the Kremlin.
About 30 percent of oil and gas produced in Russia now sold to China.
Putin is relying on his ties to China's Xi Jinping to bail him out of the increasingly tough sanctions being put on Moscow by Western nations as the invasion escalates.
Last night, China, India and the UAE abstained from voting on a UN Security Council resolution condemning Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine.
The vote was seen as another sign of the widening of the diplomatic split between the West and the East over Putin's aggression.
However, China's decision not to fully veto the motion - as Russia did - will come as a blow to the Russian dictator, who is growing increasingly isolated. I wouldnt trust China any further than i could throw it China confirms it has lifted wheat import restrictions on Russia
..."You don’t go and give a lifeline to Russia in the middle of a period when they are invading another country," Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Friday in a rebuke of China's move. "That is simply unacceptable." https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/china-confirms-it-has-lifted-wheat-import-restrictions-on-russia |
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Nobody here 'really' knows what is the situation in Ukraine, probably. I watched sky news, looked at the websites and all I can find, basically, is that "the fight continues". Of course, it is all quite terrible. Here is an interesting perspective of where this is probably going, but with HUGE caveats: https://www.newsweek.com/2022/03/11/putin-has-never-lost-war-here-how-hell-win-ukraine-1682878.htmlThe longer it continues, the higher is the probability that it won't stop there. Are we in 1938? A am not sure. So Putin has been bitching about NATO and west expanding forever, west ignored it. Now Putin starts regional conflict in Ukraine. Biden asks for $6,4 billion for Ukraine, everyone speaks of how sanctions will affect everyone...well, almost everyone https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/biden-administration-asks-for-6-4-billion-for-ukraine-allies/3573106/  |
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I cannot verify this source so take it with a grain of salt - https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1497425201969123328Read reports hat Russian troops were planning on capturing Kyiv within last 24 hours, but the source above states no captures of any Ukrainian cities were reported over the previous day. I cannot imagine any circumstances in which Putin is retreating so early, so this only tells me prolonged occupation of Russian troops in or around major Ukrainian cities if Putin decides not to capture to put troops on the ground in Kyiv. This is being celebrated as if the Ukrainians are winning. I would remind those that celebrate such a minor victory that these events can last years. If not Kyiv today, then tomorrow. I don't think the real assault has started yet. Putin just sent special forces, reconnaissance units, and ad-hoc gangs of insurgents with the aim to destabilize the current government. The real bombing has not started yet. It is important Ukrainians destroy all major roads, bridges, airports, etc. to make it harder to carry out a full invasion. Putin hasn't showed his full potential yet, I highly doubt that he's even using 1/4 of his army capacity. His real motives are still unknown, if he truly wanted to capture Kyiv, wouldn't he be more aggressive? Is he performing a show, till the real attack occurs? It's definitely not over yet, while Putin seems to not care about any financial repercussions, he's certain that the NATO and the EU won't interfere militarily. Yeah Blitzkrieg doesn't seem to be the plan. Which is odd as time usually plays again the aggressor, dissent grows proportionally to the length of conflict . See reports of attacks around Odesa and Mariupol' perhaps the plan is to take away Ukraine access to the Black sea, make it a landlocked country, and hand it back to EU for support. |
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