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161  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: August 05, 2023, 04:18:43 AM
Edit:
And are you seriously calling for mass targeted killing of civilians at a huge scale towards the end there?
Don't waste your time on this character, this is a walking collection of propaganda clichés. A typical Ukrainian neo-Nazi, with every statement he makes an aggressive anti-advertisement to the Zelensky regime. The only benefit of his statements is that it becomes clear why Ukraine needs denazification.

You enjoying the new drones that I predicted to hit Moscow just one day ago and today it was the truth.Russia how funny they are,one of their generals said some time before that hardly any sky is shielded more than that of Moscow yet drones are hitting the financial district,Russia is incapable of protecting their own citizens and the so called elite which work in that institution that was hit.Ukraine never forget any war crimes Russia has made and will make them pay as Zelensky says it is only a natural process that the war will be felt inside Russia,inside Moscow.I am waiting for more strikes and devastation against a country which started a war out of nowhere and this is the end of malevolent countries.
I'm trying to find any military reason for these drone attacks on the business center, but unfortunately I can't. And a repeated strike on the same building in Moscow City refutes the version of the Russian Defense Ministry that the first drone was suppressed by electronic warfare, these were targeted Ukrainian attacks on a skyscraper in Moscow, in which there are no military facilities. Simply put, this is pure terrorist attack.

I understand why Ukraine resorts to terrorist tactics - because its counter-offensive is failing. I understand, but I don't condone it. It is impossible to defend democratic values by terrorist methods. Soon even its most zealous supporters in the West will turn their backs on Ukraine, because support for Ukraine already smells very shitty.

No.It is because Russia continuously strikes civilian targets not later than yesterday killing an 10 year old girl.This is a response to Russian terror and it is only natural that Russia feels the same what Ukrainians are feeling because of Russian barbarism.The Russians claim they hit no civilian targets yet today they hit a dormitory in Kharkiv,luckily without dead persons.Russian have killed children,have made mass graves and systematically hit civilian targets in Ukrainian cities so it is only a natural response and what I find the most funny is terrorists (Russia are the true ones starting a war out of nowhere and killing civilians as a sign of desperation in the battlefield,stalled invasion) are calling the victim who tries to defend a terrorist  Grin.

@Branko , the US clearly has ask for forgiveness although it is not worthy after the damage they have done yet they have spend billions in help rebuilding Iraq after then,not justifying them,it was a mistake and they ask for forgiveness.
:

You keep moronically tip-toeing around a serious topic. Simple question, do you condemn attacks on civilians in RF without military justification (hint: response to what they did is NOT military justification)?
162  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: July 31, 2023, 04:31:43 PM
Meanwhile, the second phase of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, announced yesterday, began with a crushing defeat on the Zaporizhia front near Rabotino. Ukraine threw its strategic reserves into organizing a breakthrough, and dozens of armored vehicles remained on fire on the battlefield.

How it is going with North Korea and Africa poor countries,the only nations which are still doing business with Russia,I hope well as even some delegations from Africa did not attend the Russia-Africa summit,from 43 just 17 delegations and they even call on Putin to revive the grain deal as soon as possible.

No matter how long it takes it has started and it will continue for as long as the zones are liberated meanwhile how are my fellow Moscow people enjoying the drones,yet there has not been casualties but very soon there will be and at a huge scale,just wait,that is what will make Russia people think that this war has also got to do with us and will remove their opinion so far that this war does not belong to us.

What's next from you, that you heard that Putin eats babies for breakfast? I can't imagine how such outlandish claims, completely devoid of even slimmer of truth, can achieve anything besides people seeing you for a fool/propagandist. Educate yourself

India's oil imports from Russia hit new high in June but growth slows
Intelligence report accuses China of acting as sanctions backdoor for Russia

GDP growth may exceed 2% this year and consumer price inflation may not rise above 5% in annual terms, Mishustin told Putin at a meeting at the Kremlin. The International Monetary Fund expects the Russian economy to grow 0.7% this year.

After all of crackdowns, risks of social unrest in Russia were at a minimum but Prigozhin's march on Moscow proved that social unrest can come from somewhere where nobody expected, from ultra-right hawks. With UA military counteroffensive loosing all steam, and with just around 4 weeks left until September rains, it appears that efforts are being applied at social unrest from ultra-rights. Ironically it attempts to stir a reaction from hawks that call for massive bombardments and general mobilization, in response to some drone strikes at empty buildings.  Huh

Edit:
And are you seriously calling for mass targeted killing of civilians at a huge scale towards the end there?
163  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: July 30, 2023, 04:38:47 PM
<wall of text...>

Inflation is linked to interest rates. Ruzzia keeps inflation low by having nearly double interest rates. Now, stuff more graphs there, but try to understand the basics of economy first.

Let's get this clear: do you consider the attack on grain storages in Ukraine a terrorist act? A simple yes or no will suffice. I offer you a similar direct answer to any (non personal) similar question in exchange.

RE scalations, most of your assertions are false. ATACAMS have more range, more payload and are more difficult to intercept. The stormshadows are very obviously hitting high value targets, and I mean nearly every day,... You should try to read something that is not the official propaganda. The F-35 with some of the longer range rockets do not even need to get near to the front...

RE grain production in the US... well, your graph basically proves my point. US is a grain exporter and will benefit from higher prices. It is irrelevant if Ruzzia exports more or less, the price is the price. Look, seriously, just read ANY book on economy. You need them all.

Now, it seems that you are trying to deny any and all the capabilities built during decades by US and other... it just does not fly (note the pun), those weapons are effective like hell. The US has the potential to support Ukraine up by a factor of 10. They just do not want to - for now. Putin is nearly out of escalations other than nuclear, which he would loose (not that anyone wins in that case).

Latest thing, he is now promoting conflicts in Niger and Congo. But worry not, those will be dealt with in due time, first things first.

Anyway, while you theorise, reality is making a check on all that. Ukraine is moving at a faster pace and liberating some interesting bits of territory in the Zapo front. A trust towards Tohmak has become veeeeery posible. There are also some unconfirmed data on the lack of effectiveness of the "Surovikin line" of defence - there are not enough troops to actually defend it.

Oh, BTW, you are still thinking that somehow Europe has heating problems? Have you not read anything in the last year? Europe simply buys the gas from US an Norway, the countries affected are those that cannot pay the price.

I lost your point, so interest rate in US is now 5,5% and in Russia 3% higher at 8,5% (RUB) (was 20% at one point). What's your point, that Russian economy will collapse any second now?  China has become an "even more critical" economic partner for Russia, providing it with military equipment and helping the regime evade sanctions tied to the invasion of Ukraine, U.S. intelligence officials said in a report published Thursday. Totally unexpected, right? And look at Turkey, they're at 17,5% (TRY) going on few years at these high rates and they're not even at war.

Let's get this clear: do you consider the attack on grain storages in Ukraine a terrorist act?
This feels like a friend/foe, are you with/against us groupthink litmus test i.e. completely useless and devoid of reasoning. But nevertheless since you've asked nicely i'll comply. For whom Ukraine? NO.
Long answer: to objectify this, i'd frame this as country A attacking commodity for export in country B with no loss of life. Technically, strictly by definition, I guess that should be considered terrorism, but an attack on power/heating/water infrastructure is not (because that is always claimed to have military use). That's counterproductive and takes away from the real acts of terrorism. To me, terrorism is intentional, direct, or directly linked, loss or serious injury to civilian population without military justification. e.g. bomb in a subway, airliner targeted into a building, destroying food to cause hunger... But admittedly it's a spectrum, if anything I'd argue that inverse should be true, taking out a power grid in a city is more damaging to civilians than attacking some export storage.
...

So my question for you is at what point soldiers' lives should be considered and this carnage should stop being encouraged? Or are you in the "till the last Ukrainian until Crimea" camp?

Obviously the question is not if is terrorism from Ukraine, but from the RF. It is obvious that you are judging with a double scale (and assuming that there is no loss of life when attacking a silo... a long shot).  It seem that the attack on the Ministry of defence is not terrorism at all by your (veeery peculiar definition).

Anyway, the Ruzzians are well past the border of terrorism since the beginning of the war, but you are going to deny and throw dirt on any proof, so I will just let the official institutions do their research  and then let you deny.

You have change your view on the effectiveness of weapons... not useless after all... good, good, ... now you just to get familiarised with the differences between and we then can talk again. A million possible escalations are possible from the Ukrainian side, simply because the aid is very limited in all aspects. Just read the Ukrainian requests to US and see how they are fine with using more and better weapons that do exist.

To your question, which I have answered in many posts - the fight has to continue until a result that guarantees a future stable peace is reached. It is no use to surrender "to save lives" if the conditions for the next invasion are setup. As of now, if Putin gets his way to a significant degree, there will be another war soon and then another...

But hey, I also have a peace plan, just like you! Until when should the RF army hold the occupied territories? Just leave and save all those lives you care so much about.



Ministry of Defense of opposing country is not a military target in your book?


US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE LAW OF WAR MANUAL https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/DoD%20Law%20of%20War%20Manual%20-%20June%202015%20Updated%20Dec%202016.pdf
Read all of Chapter "V – The Conduct of Hostilities" has enough loopholes and exceptions to fly a fleet of aircraft through

About attacking merchant ships and prohibiting neutral vessels from entering the area

Quote
13.5.1.1 Captured Enemy Merchant Vessels – Notes on Terminology. A captured neutral or enemy merchant vessel is called a prize.
...
13.5.1.3 Destruction of Captured Enemy Merchant Vessels. When military circumstances preclude sending or taking in such vessel or aircraft for adjudication as an enemy prize, it may be destroyed after all possible measures are taken to provide for the safety of passengers and crew. 86 Documents and papers relating to the prize should be safeguarded and, if practicable, the personal effects of passengers should be saved. Every case of destruction of a captured enemy prize should be reported promptly to higher command. The destruction of neutral prizes involves similar procedures, but a more serious responsibility.
13.5.2 Attack of Enemy Merchant Vessels. Enemy merchant vessels may be made the object of attack, outside neutral territory, if they constitute a military objective. In particular, enemy merchant vessels may be attacked and destroyed by warships, either with or without prior warning, in any of the following circumstances:
persistently refusing to stop upon being duly summoned to do so;
...
13.8.1 Belligerent Right to Establish Special Restrictions in the Immediate Area of Naval Operations. Within the immediate area or vicinity of naval operations, to ensure proper battle space management and self-defense objectives, a belligerent State may establish special restrictions upon the activities of neutral vessels and aircraft, and may prohibit altogether such vessels and aircraft from entering the area.

On attacking dams
Quote
5.13 ATTACKS ON FACILITIES , WORKS , OR INSTALLATIONS CONTAINING DANGEROUS FORCES
Certain facilities containing dangerous forces, such as dams, nuclear power plants, or facilities producing weapons of mass destruction, may constitute military objectives. There may be a number of reasons for their attack, such as denial of electric power to military sources, use of a dangerous facility (e.g., by causing release from a dam) to damage or destroy other military objectives, or to pre-empt enemy release of the dangerous forces to hamper the movement or advance of U.S. or allied forces. Attack of facilities, works, or installations containing dangerous forces, such as dams, nuclear power plants, or facilities producing weapons of mass destruction, is permissible so long as it is conducted in accordance with other applicable rules, including the rules of discrimination and proportionality.

According to US pretty much everything is a fair target. That's the problem with setting a precedent, pretty much all that RF is doing has already been done in some form by US. Although i don't believe RF has attacked a marked and protected medical facility for half an hour killing 42 and then 11 days later rolled in that hospital with tanks, yet.

You seem to have concluded that 522 days into the conflict US/NATO are intentionally holding back the delivery of weapons preventing UA from achieving their victory, can you expand on why you believe that is done? But you still seem to hold hope that this will change at some future point in time, so much so that UA will be able to take over Crimea. Following that logic, can you opine what conclusion could be formed if those changes never materialize and the conflict is frozen roughly along the current lines?

But hey, I also have a peace plan, just like you! Until when should the RF army hold the occupied territories? Just leave and save all those lives you care so much about.
If 522 days into the conflict, after RF has declared general mobilization, and the opponent did not, who also happens to outnumber RF population by 100MM, and i have doubts about intentions/sincerity of the main allies that keep RF afloat, i'd say it'd be time to fold and save the troops.

Also could you opine what probability you allocate to Biden winning US presidential elections in 2024? And how should EU leaders hedge the risk of that not happening? Regardless of the outcome in a year, the election show is about to kick off. Could this be the reason for timing restrictions on UA? And historically speaking how much US prioritized outside conflicts over internal?

Trump calls for halt in military support for Ukraine

Former president Donald Trump wants Congress to withhold military aid for Ukraine until the Biden administration cooperates with congressional investigations into the business dealings of Biden's son, Hunter. Trump, speaking at a rally Saturday in Erie, Pennsylvania, said no additional weapon shipments should be authorized until the FBI, Justice Department and Internal Revenue Service provide "every scrap of evidence" they have of possible misbehavior by Biden family members. Trump threatened Republican lawmakers who didn’t join the effort with primary challenges...
“Congress should refuse to authorize a single additional shipment of our depleted weapons stockpiles … to Ukraine until the FBI, DOJ and IRS hand over every scrap of evidence they have on the Biden crime family’s corrupt business dealings,” Trump said at the rally.
164  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: July 28, 2023, 04:49:46 AM
<wall of text...>

Inflation is linked to interest rates. Ruzzia keeps inflation low by having nearly double interest rates. Now, stuff more graphs there, but try to understand the basics of economy first.

Let's get this clear: do you consider the attack on grain storages in Ukraine a terrorist act? A simple yes or no will suffice. I offer you a similar direct answer to any (non personal) similar question in exchange.

RE scalations, most of your assertions are false. ATACAMS have more range, more payload and are more difficult to intercept. The stormshadows are very obviously hitting high value targets, and I mean nearly every day,... You should try to read something that is not the official propaganda. The F-35 with some of the longer range rockets do not even need to get near to the front...

RE grain production in the US... well, your graph basically proves my point. US is a grain exporter and will benefit from higher prices. It is irrelevant if Ruzzia exports more or less, the price is the price. Look, seriously, just read ANY book on economy. You need them all.

Now, it seems that you are trying to deny any and all the capabilities built during decades by US and other... it just does not fly (note the pun), those weapons are effective like hell. The US has the potential to support Ukraine up by a factor of 10. They just do not want to - for now. Putin is nearly out of escalations other than nuclear, which he would loose (not that anyone wins in that case).

Latest thing, he is now promoting conflicts in Niger and Congo. But worry not, those will be dealt with in due time, first things first.

Anyway, while you theorise, reality is making a check on all that. Ukraine is moving at a faster pace and liberating some interesting bits of territory in the Zapo front. A trust towards Tohmak has become veeeeery posible. There are also some unconfirmed data on the lack of effectiveness of the "Surovikin line" of defence - there are not enough troops to actually defend it.

Oh, BTW, you are still thinking that somehow Europe has heating problems? Have you not read anything in the last year? Europe simply buys the gas from US an Norway, the countries affected are those that cannot pay the price.

I lost your point, so interest rate in US is now 5,5% and in Russia 3% higher at 8,5% (RUB) (was 20% at one point). What's your point, that Russian economy will collapse any second now?  China has become an "even more critical" economic partner for Russia, providing it with military equipment and helping the regime evade sanctions tied to the invasion of Ukraine, U.S. intelligence officials said in a report published Thursday. Totally unexpected, right? And look at Turkey, they're at 17,5% (TRY) going on few years at these high rates and they're not even at war.

Let's get this clear: do you consider the attack on grain storages in Ukraine a terrorist act?
This feels like a friend/foe, are you with/against us groupthink litmus test i.e. completely useless and devoid of reasoning. But nevertheless since you've asked nicely i'll comply. For whom Ukraine? NO.
Long answer: to objectify this, i'd frame this as country A attacking commodity for export in country B with no loss of life. Technically, strictly by definition, I guess that should be considered terrorism, but an attack on power/heating/water infrastructure is not (because that is always claimed to have military use). That's counterproductive and takes away from the real acts of terrorism. To me, terrorism is intentional, direct, or directly linked, loss or serious injury to civilian population without military justification. e.g. bomb in a subway, airliner targeted into a building, destroying food to cause hunger... But admittedly it's a spectrum, if anything I'd argue that inverse should be true, taking out a power grid in a city is more damaging to civilians than attacking some export storage.

Exactly, UA already uses British storm shadow and France's SCALP that are already doing the exact same thing ATACMS would for anything that GMLRS might not be able to reach. But foreseeing that for PR purposes we will continue seeing this trend for every type of F16 missiles. And what longer range rockets are used on F-35 that cannot be used on F-16?

I don't understand how you can continue cheer for this stupid advance and keep raising expectations when they haven't even breached the first line of defense. Soldiers are literally being pushing onto mines, and are being forced to attack without any air defense, don't you think this is borderline suicidal? Do you really believe with all of the intel from US/NATO the "oh first we didn't expect them to have so many mines and now we forgot that RF has air force" is a valid justification? Time is already reporting straight up that Ukraine has too few soldiers left.

Ukraine's Counteroffensive Needs a Plan B
America’s “Plan A” in Ukraine is on life support.
...
They posited that even if Ukraine ultimately proved incapable of driving Russian forces off all of Ukraine’s territory, the counteroffensive would give Kyiv significant leverage at the diplomatic table.
...
Some six weeks into the Ukrainian counteroffensive, things are not going as planned. Although damage estimates vary, Ukraine has lost significant numbers of men and weapons, while making negligible progress against formidable Russian defenses.  

Despite vigorous recruiting and conscription efforts, Ukraine has too few soldiers to muster the three-to-one manpower advantage generally considered necessary for a successful offensive. Its supplies of artillery shells and anti-aircraft missiles, vital to battlefield success, are dwindling. As a result, Russia’s air force—which was sparingly used last year in the face of effective Ukrainian air defenses—is now operating more actively near the front lines, devastating Ukraine’s attacking forces.  

Finger-pointing for this failure is already underway. Increasingly, Ukrainian officials openly blame the West for not providing enough armor, aircraft, artillery, missiles, and ammunition. Anonymous American officials blame the Ukrainians for not conducting Western-style combined arms operations to outmaneuver and outpace their plodding Russian opponents.
...
But even such an extensive transformation would still not resolve Ukraine’s critical gap in this war: air power. According to the Congressional Research Service, Ukraine’s air force has 132 aircrafts, compared to 1,391 in Russia’s.  Providing Ukraine with a couple of dozen F-16 fighters, whose complex maintenance requirements make the aircraft ill-suited for conditions in Ukraine, will hardly bridge that gap.  As Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, told Politico in May, “There are no magic weapons in war, F-16s are not, and neither is anything else.”
...
if coupled with a diplomatic approach that incentivizes Russia to end the fighting rather than prolong it to keep Ukraine out of NATO, it could well prompt Russia to aim to secure its still quite limited gains through a negotiated end to the war. It is time to try.


So my question for you is at what point soldiers' lives should be considered and this carnage should stop being encouraged? Or are you in the "till the last Ukrainian until Crimea" camp?
165  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: July 27, 2023, 06:28:21 PM
...
You are wrong in all your statements. See, you do not have to look for anything.

My own statement does not justify attacking non-critical infrastructure nor acts of terrorism (which would be veeeery easy to carry out by Ukraine if they wanted). While it might even be a false flag, the fact is that the Ruzzian Mod is 300 meters from there. My statement signifies that an attack on a legitimate target in Moscow may open the eyes of many to the sad reality: their government cannot even defend itself and this war is not something happening at 1000 clicks away.

If you deflect a drone it will land in another place. If you are in Moscow that "other place" is likely to be inhabited by humans. If the Ruzzians use a system that protects the Ministry by making drones fall in the vicinity means that they would rather protect the Ministry than other inhabited buildings in the surroundings.

And now that you understand why you are wrong and I am right, shall we talk about throwing missiles to grain silos as terror?

As an alternative I suggest talking about inflation in Ruzzia. Another interesting topic.

Grin with such low effort arguments you've done a great job at discrediting yourself, at which point this just feels like a great waste of time on my part, so i guess you got me, good job on that front.

Your statements do not merit anything else.


...
Grain silos:
Objective facts - excess grain for export, China was to be the main consumer. Part of the larger end of the grain deal
Results - Financial and political pressure on the "west". Event removes revenue stream from UA, opens up markets for RF grain, excess UA grain would flood Poland & Romania undercutting local farmers and further raising social tensions there. Poland and Hungary threaten to cut Ukraine’s export route to the West
UA coverage - RF is starting new holodomor for...whole world? and only UA grain can save the children. Try to get as much coverage to stay in news headlines, bring attention to yearly child deaths in Cuba as a consequence of blockade starving children elsewhere in the world.
RF coverage - target was used as military infrastructure to create and launch sea drones that attacked bridge in Crimea


Facts - You argue that a drone hitting a commercial building near the Ministry is terror, but the attack on food storages is ok. Why would I need to make an effort to rebate that, you are doing great on your own.

The complaints of eastern European farmers were already there even during the grain deal, so is not a result of breaking it. The solution is simple: Ukrainian grain would only be for export, not for local markets. It is a mere regulatory issue.

Ruzzia is already a grain exporter. But let me ask you: If the grain from Ukraine to China is replaced with grain from Ruzzia... what happens to the price of grain inside Ruzzia? If you ask me, the RF citizens are going to pay extra and is not a luxury product, it is the most basic food. I hope they feel glorious about it.

A deal has two sides. It is not that Ruzzia is creating hunger, is that by not reaching an agreement grain prices will be higher. Everywhere, including those places in which the price will not be affordable. Casually, many of those countries are friendly to the Ruzzian cause... for now.

As for the economic effect in US, it will be positive, they produce grain like crazy and now they can sell it more expensive.

Regarding Europe, the cost of food is not really a concern. Production and demand are quite controlled.




RF inflation:
Objective facts - USD=90RUB Russia notched a victory in the fight for influence over global oil markets in recent days when the price of the country’s most coveted crude traded above a Western price cap imposed to starve Moscow of funds for the war in Ukraine.
Result - Financial pressure on RF.
UA coverage - RF will financially collapse any second now, keep raising support for war effort. Cost of RF imports will skyrocket
RF coverage - RF oil/gas exports are priced in USD but expenses state budget and military salaries are paid in RUB. So high exchange rate actually helps budget surplus. Food is local grown and denominated in RUB so no inflation, but iPhone imports will cost more.

Now what's more worrying to me is all the recent ruckus going on around Poland. Seems the "west" has exhausted current list of available escalations, so a potential next step appears to be Poland making a bilateral defense pact with Ukraine and sending in their troops to UA (entering the conflict on their own "outside" of NATO framework). This would compensate all of the lost manpower in UA, yet supposedly keep NATO out of direct confrontation. Seems like RF is prepping Belarus, nukes, and general mobilization as a hedge against such development.

Inflation:
Are you clueless about what inflation is? You just throw there some economic non-facts and then say I am not doing enough effort to rebate? Gee dude... you need to try to have some self-criticism.

This is not about coverage, this is about the interest rates (currently 8.5%, previously at 20%) that the RF has to keep so that they do not spiral into hyperinflation. The only person with a brain in the whole Ruzzian government is Nabiullina, but she can only do what she can. You know what is paying a mortgage nowadays at nearly 10%, that is more than double than 2 just two years ago?

That is inflation.


Escalations:

Oh my friend, the "available escalations" are endless... ATACMS, F-35s, more F-16s, more Abrahms, ... The only reason this is not happening is because the US is absolutely fine with Ruzzia fighting this war and self-demilitarising the Soviet arsenals without any US soldier killed. The game of proxies is so old.

I have said it over and over, there is a winner to this, but is not Ruzzia, is not Germany, is not Poland and is not Ukraine (may be in the future, not as of now).

 And China too -  cheap oil right when they are in a crisis.

I see, so it appears that reading comprehension is at issue here. Show me where i claim that "hitting a commercial building near the Ministry is terror, but the attack on food storages is ok"  Huh (hint: you won't find it!)

"The solution is simple: Ukrainian grain would only be for export, not for local markets. It is a mere regulatory issue"
Well, technically that's for EU to decide. With 5 weeks left till September, limits on heating and temperature inside the house, with pictures of elderly and lower class going to McDonald's to warm up, and food inflation at 16,41% do you trust bureaucrats not to touch all this almost free grain and just let it rot? The degree can be argued but it's clear to raise political tension, and easy points for any opposition.

 
"If the grain from Ukraine to China is replaced with grain from Ruzzia... what happens to the price of grain inside Ruzzia? If you ask me, the RF citizens are going to pay extra and is not a luxury product, it is the most basic food. I hope they feel glorious about it."
Russia is having a good harvest year so much that they're giving tens of thousands of tons of free grain away, sure there's nothing free and they're using soft power to get political influence but that's besides the point. There are price limits on basic foodstuff in Russia, so prices on vegemite will go up, but locally produced products will stay the same for population. There's only an opportunity cost, loss of potential additional income.


As for the economic effect in US, it will be positive, they produce grain like crazy and now they can sell it more expensive.
Can you at least put a bit more effort in your arguments outside of typical BS targeted at the uneducated masses?
Both sides need to feed their spheres of influence. Look at the scale/population of US and RF spheres and populations they need to at least feed so they don't flip sides. This is obviously not about US generating income from LatAm/Africa/Asia, US can always print more money, but they cant print food, and without cheap UA exports things will get more difficult. Straight from USDA Russian wheat exports are forecast to hit a record 45.0 million tons in 2022/23, up 36 percent from the prior year and 3.5 million tons above its previous record in 2017/18.
Check out jump in RF exports just in one year and compare it with total UA export

Are you clueless about what inflation is?
You, funny  Grin. Interest rates are not inflation. US average mortgage rates are at 7,34% even if RF is at 10% have they ever been at par with US and is the spread really that dramatic you make it out to be? You seem to be confusing inflation with currency devaluation/manipulation. Or rather, something tells me that you're well aware of this and just trying to mislead the masses, so instead let's try to educate them shall we?
Currency manipulation - by China or any other other country - is seen to flout global trading rules by conferring unfair competitive advantages. A country does so by artificially inflating or deflating its exchange rate. It may be designed to make exports more competitive, to avoid inflation or reduce capital inflows. as far as inflation yeah it's high Russian inflation above 4% target for first time since March, economy ministry says


Oh my friend, the "available escalations" are endless... ATACMS, F-35s, more F-16s, more Abrahms
ATACMS are mostly useless, UA is already using HIMARS with pods of 6 GMLRS missiles at a cost of $168k/each and range of 84km. That already puts Mariupol and almost everything to the sea of Azov as well as around 90% of all areas under RF control (outside Crimea) in rage. How much more will a single ~$1,5MM ATACMS missile in a pod get you? Only to harass Crimea, striking fear in RF population that completely forgot about the war and bathing with their kids on the beaches of Crimea during summer season, oh and perhaps a moral booster for UA propaganda looks we can ruin their summer vacations. Not even close to anything ground breaking.
Anyone who has followed this conflict at all, knows that the front lines are so over-saturated with mines, ATGMs and drones, that tanks are not real force multipliers anymore. Or have you already forgot about the "free the leopard" campaign? Diversion and reconnaissance groups having problems sneaking through, Abrahms with their jet engines could probably be spotted from space in IR.
Airspace is also saturated with SAMs from both sides, so much so that rockets get intercepted. Thinking that anyone will be able to dominate airspace and needs the extra functionality of F35s for some areal dogfights is delusional. F16s could be used to lob misses just like RF does now and that's about it. All previous major force multiplies have been neutralized from both sides, and that's not going to change, that why we see all of the trench warfare going on. Only thing that has a remote possibility of becoming a game changer are drones in huge capacities, scaled to a point of 1 drone per soldier. Such as Iran helping Russia build drone stockpile that is expected to be ‘orders of magnitude larger’ than previous arsenal, US says...US intelligence officials have warned that Russia is building a drone-manufacturing facility in country with Iran’s help that could have a significant impact on the war in Ukraine once it is completed. perhaps west is also working on this at such capacities undercover, or a jammer for each soldier? After all, we humans always find improved ways of killing each other.

Bottom line, winter is coming and we're in war of attrition. From the social, economical, political, and military fronts the weakest link on RF side looks to be economy which (with China) still appears resilient. From the west it's military, not the equipment but simpe manpower, which surprises absolutely no one. All other events are black swans/long shots.
166  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: July 25, 2023, 03:39:14 PM
...
You are wrong in all your statements. See, you do not have to look for anything.

My own statement does not justify attacking non-critical infrastructure nor acts of terrorism (which would be veeeery easy to carry out by Ukraine if they wanted). While it might even be a false flag, the fact is that the Ruzzian Mod is 300 meters from there. My statement signifies that an attack on a legitimate target in Moscow may open the eyes of many to the sad reality: their government cannot even defend itself and this war is not something happening at 1000 clicks away.

If you deflect a drone it will land in another place. If you are in Moscow that "other place" is likely to be inhabited by humans. If the Ruzzians use a system that protects the Ministry by making drones fall in the vicinity means that they would rather protect the Ministry than other inhabited buildings in the surroundings.

And now that you understand why you are wrong and I am right, shall we talk about throwing missiles to grain silos as terror?

As an alternative I suggest talking about inflation in Ruzzia. Another interesting topic.


 Grin with such low effort arguments you've done a great job at discrediting yourself, at which point this just feels like a great waste of time on my part, so i guess you got me, good job on that front.

You do realize that UA deflected/jammed exponentially many more drones in Kyiv, right? where did all of those land at? Oops. And not even going into SAMs hit rates, misfires, blue on blue attacks, and UA attacking Poland.

Quote from: Socrates
Strong minds discuss ideas, average minds discuss events, weak minds discuss people.

You've totally discredited yourself with your low effort silly arguments, and proved total lack of objectivity and critical thinking (or were you always like this and for some reason i mistakenly held you in high regard?) so i'll let others engage you in never ending shit slinging propaganda. But to summarize.

Grain silos:
Objective facts - excess grain for export, China was to be the main consumer. Part of the larger end of the grain deal
Results - Financial and political pressure on the "west". Event removes revenue stream from UA, opens up markets for RF grain, excess UA grain would flood Poland & Romania undercutting local farmers and further raising social tensions there. Poland and Hungary threaten to cut Ukraine’s export route to the West
UA coverage - RF is starting new holodomor for...whole world? and only UA grain can save the children. Try to get as much coverage to stay in news headlines, bring attention to yearly child deaths in Cuba as a consequence of blockade starving children elsewhere in the world.
RF coverage - target was used as military infrastructure to create and launch sea drones that attacked bridge in Crimea

RF inflation:
Objective facts - USD=90RUB Russia notched a victory in the fight for influence over global oil markets in recent days when the price of the country’s most coveted crude traded above a Western price cap imposed to starve Moscow of funds for the war in Ukraine.
Result - Financial pressure on RF.
UA coverage - RF will financially collapse any second now, keep raising support for war effort. Cost of RF imports will skyrocket
RF coverage - RF oil/gas exports are priced in USD but expenses state budget and military salaries are paid in RUB. So high exchange rate actually helps budget surplus. Food is local grown and denominated in RUB so no inflation, but iPhone imports will cost more.

Now what's more worrying to me is all the recent ruckus going on around Poland. Seems the "west" has exhausted current list of available escalations, so a potential next step appears to be Poland making a bilateral defense pact with Ukraine and sending in their troops to UA (entering the conflict on their own "outside" of NATO framework). This would compensate all of the lost manpower in UA, yet supposedly keep NATO out of direct confrontation. Seems like RF is prepping Belarus, nukes, and general mobilization as a hedge against such development.
167  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 25, 2023, 03:04:46 AM
It seems a little strange to me that Bitcoin is slowly falling in price while the traditional markets are rallying so hard. Making things a little stranger, prominent investors have been selling off shares of Coinbase leading me to wonder if perhaps they know something that we don’t. Perhaps they’ve already been given a heads up about widespread ETF rejections?

... or the gox coins distribution


Shhh those are not suppose to hit the market till September/October
168  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: July 25, 2023, 02:19:50 AM
So how does it feel for Russians to see two drones striking some buildings in the center of Moscow?I am sure they like it and Ukrainian counter offensive is going slowly but gradually having liberated another 16.4 km square in the south front last week.I don't understand the press statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia that name the attack as a terrorist attack by the Kyiv regime when in fact Russia is applying terror against Ukraine more than 1.5 year now,this is just plain Ukrainian response to terror and they should gain momentum and hit even further so Russian start thinking if the war is worth continuing or not as they are not getting anything.

You do realize that you made no attempt to argue that it wasn't terrorism from UA side, but instead just justified it as a response to another terrorism. Or do you not realize that terrorism is not mutually exclusive? My ministry of propaganda told me that the enemy blew up "our" kindergarten, so i was activated to blow up "their" kindergarten in response thus i'm not a terrorist logic?  Huh

And if you didn't consider your audience to be complete imbeciles, when stating how many square kms were "liberated", for a full picture and objectivity wouldn't you also include how many square kilometers were also "lost" on other fronts?

It is not terrorism when you defend yourself and Ukraine has never mass killed civilians like Russian barbarians have done in Bucha,Irpin and Kharkiv.The Ukrainian army has never hit a maternity hospital killing innocent people,they have never bombed theater where it was clearly written "CHILDREN" in Russian language so what can justify these actions from Russian aggression and lately they even hit a Unesco heritage site in Ukraine,they commit a horrendous war crime every day.

As for the square kilometers,Ukraine has reclaimed more than 50% of territories that they lost in the early stages of invasion,they will liberate every single inch of territory until Ukraine wins.

Again, by definition terrorism is not dependent on whether you're defending yourself or not, or any further justifications. You really believe that an attempt to redefine terms helps your cause? Yes yes we all know, almost about to take Crimea back, right...i'll let you be.

You are wrong, as usual. The drone attacks in Moscow were heading to the Ministry of defence. The MOd is a legitimate target as it is considered a key infrastructure that directly support the war effort of the RF. The systems that the RF uses to prevent this deflects and redirects the drones by interfering with them so they crash somewhere else nearby (at 300 meters to be precise), so you are accusing the RF of terrorism against the RF. Now that I think of it, you are right.

Seriously speaking, there is little incentive for Ukraine to just hit some random building in Moscow. It just does not make sense - even if it was actually Ukraine (I have not seen official confirmation).

Also as usual, no comment on the attacks at Odessa, which actually were not directed to any military or war related infrastructure, so ... yeah, speaking of redefining terms.

And yet another gaffe - yes terrorism actually does depend if you are defending yourself: Example: The RF is not at war with the UK, but they send two guys to kill someone living in the UK. That is terrorism. If you are at war and that person is a military, is not - it is a legitimate target.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/23/europe/ukraine-russia-drone-attacks-hit-moscow-intl-hnk/index.html

Quote
One of the buildings seen damaged in footage geolocated by CNN houses the ministry’s military orchestra. It was not immediately clear if that had been caused by the drones.

The area also houses the Russian Foreign Military Intelligence, known as GRU, 26165 unit, which carries out cyber activities, according to multiple Western sources. It’s also in the vicinity of the Ministry of Defense’s National Defense Management Center.

Later Monday morning, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists that Russian air defenses had worked successfully.

If you ask me, Russians have to understand that war is not that stuff that happens in the TV, but something that can actually go kaboom in you door. This may help.

WOW so much to unpack there that I don't even know where to start, are you being sarcastic here?, it's hard to believe that this is all just a coincidence.

First of all reread what i wrote and indicate which exact statement I am wrong about.

What you're doing here is bringing up an arguments that the actual mark was a valid military target but due to some reason it happened to land in some unintended location. OK that's the default justification for every side in every modern conflict (rarely someone admits to terrorism). Then you hilariously do a flip and attempt to claim, that because RF deflected a missile on to themselves they are terrorists? Following such logic all SAM missiles UA launched as well as all intersected incoming RF missiles (which all must land somewhere right?) were also terrorist attacks from Ukraine onto Ukraine? Going even further Ukraine sending a missle to Poland and killing two Poles was a Ukrainian terrorist attack on NATO too?

Then you appeal to logic making an argument that there is no incentive to hit random buildings, and how it doesn't make sense. (Sure, an argument that's also widely used by both sides).

And then you turn around, contradict yourself and pretty much give a clear example of an incentive and why such a terrorist attack makes perfect sense and may help your political objective "Russians have to understand that war is not that stuff that happens in the TV, but something that can actually go kaboom in you door. This may help."

Quote from: Encyclopedia Britannica https://www.britannica.com/topic/terrorism
terrorism, the calculated use of violence to create a general climate of fear in a population and thereby to bring about a particular political objective.

Bravo, honestly I don't think i could've come up with a better example and a more typical justification for terrorism if i tried. And then somewhere in between you keep arguing with Encyclopedia Britannica to the definition of terrorism and how it should depend on defending yourself.  Roll Eyes
169  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: July 24, 2023, 09:44:40 PM
So how does it feel for Russians to see two drones striking some buildings in the center of Moscow?I am sure they like it and Ukrainian counter offensive is going slowly but gradually having liberated another 16.4 km square in the south front last week.I don't understand the press statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia that name the attack as a terrorist attack by the Kyiv regime when in fact Russia is applying terror against Ukraine more than 1.5 year now,this is just plain Ukrainian response to terror and they should gain momentum and hit even further so Russian start thinking if the war is worth continuing or not as they are not getting anything.

You do realize that you made no attempt to argue that it wasn't terrorism from UA side, but instead just justified it as a response to another terrorism. Or do you not realize that terrorism is not mutually exclusive? My ministry of propaganda told me that the enemy blew up "our" kindergarten, so i was activated to blow up "their" kindergarten in response thus i'm not a terrorist logic?  Huh

And if you didn't consider your audience to be complete imbeciles, when stating how many square kms were "liberated", for a full picture and objectivity wouldn't you also include how many square kilometers were also "lost" on other fronts?

It is not terrorism when you defend yourself and Ukraine has never mass killed civilians like Russian barbarians have done in Bucha,Irpin and Kharkiv.The Ukrainian army has never hit a maternity hospital killing innocent people,they have never bombed theater where it was clearly written "CHILDREN" in Russian language so what can justify these actions from Russian aggression and lately they even hit a Unesco heritage site in Ukraine,they commit a horrendous war crime every day.

As for the square kilometers,Ukraine has reclaimed more than 50% of territories that they lost in the early stages of invasion,they will liberate every single inch of territory until Ukraine wins.

Again, by definition terrorism is not dependent on whether you're defending yourself or not, or any further justifications. You really believe that an attempt to redefine terms helps your cause? Yes yes we all know, almost about to take Crimea back, right...i'll let you be.
170  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: July 24, 2023, 06:03:24 PM
It seems like every morning I wake up and read more terrible news about this war. Today it’s Ukraine’s ports being bombed. There are videos surfacing of captured Ukrainian troops saying they were threatened with jail if they didn’t fight. I don’t know how much longer we’re expected to pay for this horrible proxy war, but I for one don’t think Ukrainians should be forced to fight in it or face jail.

I think you should stop comsuming so much Russia propaganda if you're going to keep falling for it.

@OgNasty, if you do not like "paying for this war" (I wonder if you have noticed that many "pay" with their lives)... if you do not like paying this I say, just figure out how much would you need to pay if going back to the Cold War. That is expensive, and much more since you have a much bigger China.

US, Europe an Russia have had the dividend of peace, but you should not take that for granted if RF "wins" or looks to "win".

Quote
What Is a Peace Dividend?
A peace dividend is an economic boost a country will get from a peace that follows a war. In theory, at that time the government can afford to reduce defense spending and reallocate the money to domestic policy priorities.

This assumes that the money recouped from defense spending is generally used for the good of society and human or sustainable development; projects that involve new housing, education, and healthcare, for example.




Like you I'm all for suppressing Chinese commie regime, but i have questions on the strategy. We're talking about #2 (possibly soon to become #1) economy in the world, in your cost/benefit analysis how many Ukrainians should be thrown against Russians that outnumber them by 100.000.000 in the world’s most mined country without any air support, with the strategy of just hoping Ukrainian courage and resourcefulness would carry the day? Until Nuland's freedom cookies in 2014 Russia wasn't aligned with China at all, who do we hold accountable for such epic failure if while trying to get Ukraine under "west's sphere of influence" we still end up going into cold war with China, only now having pushed Russia on their side? And this whole strategy of defeating Russians in Ukraine first and then coming after Chinese relies on China being idiots and not seeing this coming right? How will all of this look in the history books 50yrs from now?

171  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: July 24, 2023, 05:18:02 PM
So how does it feel for Russians to see two drones striking some buildings in the center of Moscow?I am sure they like it and Ukrainian counter offensive is going slowly but gradually having liberated another 16.4 km square in the south front last week.I don't understand the press statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia that name the attack as a terrorist attack by the Kyiv regime when in fact Russia is applying terror against Ukraine more than 1.5 year now,this is just plain Ukrainian response to terror and they should gain momentum and hit even further so Russian start thinking if the war is worth continuing or not as they are not getting anything.

You do realize that you made no attempt to argue that it wasn't terrorism from UA side, but instead just justified it as a response to another terrorism. Or do you not realize that terrorism is not mutually exclusive? My ministry of propaganda told me that the enemy blew up "our" kindergarten, so i was activated to blow up "their" kindergarten in response thus i'm not a terrorist logic?  Huh

And if you didn't consider your audience to be complete imbeciles, when stating how many square kms were "liberated", for a full picture and objectivity wouldn't you also include how many square kilometers were also "lost" on other fronts?
172  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: July 20, 2023, 12:23:41 PM
Meanwhile, Ukraine seems to have lost access to the Black Sea. Physically, it is, but it is impossible or extremely difficult to use it. The naval blockade of Ukraine begins at 00:00 Moscow time on July 20, while nothing is known about the timing of the end of the blockade.

Oh, I see. So if an US ship and a Turquiyan ship decide to go to Odessa, the RF fleet in the Black Sea will go there and stop them / sink them? And then nothing will happen and no retaliation will take place because "the RF has decided to blockade". Is that what you mean? Is that how this plays out in your mind? So no more "smoking in the wrong place" accidents as a result?

Anyway, this is more a marketing campaign more than anything else, possibly to distract from the situation in Bakhmut.

Montreux Convention, Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits have been closed off to warships for a while now. Lets attempt to limit the spread of propaganda. Not to mention that the area would be heavily mined, and no insurance company would cover any vessel, just the logistics of that would heavily outweigh the profit from the grain. If by some insanity a NATO country decided to enter a declared war-zone/mined area, article 5 would not apply to them and they'd be left on their own i.e. so no, Poland cannot send a boat there to be blown up and then expect NATO to get involved in WW3
173  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: July 20, 2023, 12:14:50 PM
Only a lowlife scumbag wouldn't feel sorry for the death of an innocent child hit by cowards while they cross a bridge in their car with their parents Cool
After everything what Russia already did in Ukraine I should be sorry about death of Russians. Hmmmm, no. But unlike some lowlife Russian scumbags I don't celebrate death of people when they hit apartment buildings, hospital or shop.

Another dope here justifying the death of an innocent child folks ^^^ Luckily the evil russians are only staying down in a small part of ukraine and not rolling tanks all over it in response.Ukraine wouldn't last 1 day if the russians decided to go all out on it. Ukraine is literally bankrupting us in the west and trying to get us all killed in a nuclear war with russia. Let politican scumbags send their own children over to fight. How come the ukrainian capital is still standing if the russians are so evil? Even the dopiest animal with a debased IQ knows the russians could level ukraine without setting foot in it. Why do they stay down in the east part only if they are so intent in destroying ukraine. Fucking liars think we are all stupid in the west and tell us Ukraine is fighting for its existence looking for more money and weapons while they eat ice cream in its capital and kidnap men off the streets to send them out to be slaughtered in the east of it to get back those mineral deposits for the vulture funds.
Oh really, Russia didn't even started seriously and they haven't took Kyiv in 3 days just because they don't want.


Empathy and compassion, is what makes us human, lack of empathy is a hallmark trait of sociopaths and psychopaths (or perhaps in this case just propagandists stirring up hatred?). This is just a silly attempt at False dilemma, vast majority are fully capable of feeling sorry for innocent lives lost on both sides. Not even mentioning victim blaming (irrespective of how poor their choices appear to you)
174  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: July 17, 2023, 04:02:14 PM
If I were a Russian living in Crimea or other occupied territories I would start packing NOW.

Crimean Bridge is out of service, AGAIN. LOL.

Instead, crazy Russians seem pissed and volunteer for frontline in even bigger numbers

Story about wounded girl that lost mother and father in attack is as good as FSB could
ask for

Of course Branko, everyone is useful for the mission right?

I don't think the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end easily. Russia maintains war with Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia wants to take some parts of Ukraine for which they are continuing this war. Because if Russia can occupy some part of Ukraine then it is their own gain.

It has become a long term conflict, or at least it seems to becoming one, sadly.
The only thing about it which I would call positive is the fact that Russia alone cannot hold a long term battle against Ukraine alone, for now the Klemlin depends on the support of their biggest ally: The popular Republic of China.

If someone USA convinced or pressured Chine to stop their military and economical aid to Putin, then Russia would have it very difficult to continue their attacks, they already are getting in trouble economically being their cheap offer of energy a sample of it, in my opinion.

Id wish this non-sense stopped right now, if possible...

This caught my eye, think you have fundamental misunderstanding of the conflict, which puts you in a constant state of bewilderment as to why something is (or is not) happening. Your curios mind led you here for answers, but all the local clown "experts" (propagandists) can do, is to overwhelm you with irrelevant micro level information to sway you their way. Any macro questions are discouraged and just covered by "crazy orcs" or nazis, to dissuade any further questions.

Look at US/NATO military bases around China, looks where major military build up is happening outside of Ukraine theater, look at blockade of Cuba that's still going on for 30yrs+ any if anyone really cares for the right of sovereign nations or its people, and current justifications for it. Then ask yourself how long would the commie regime last after the fall of Russia and the sudden onset of democracy cookies (soft power) onto Kazakhstan. Then the question whether the nation that coined such phrases as "death by a thousand cuts" and "If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by" can be convinced or pressured into stopping aid to Russia, should becomes irrelevant. As well as shed some light on why this counteroffensive was so drummed up, how it's really going, what will happen in about 8 weeks, mid September, once weather changes and any maneuvering becomes impossible and we revert back to positional arty scorched earth advances. Might also look into who historically benefits from the winter season.

https://www.reuters.com/world/nato-open-japan-office-enable-indo-pacific-consultation-report-2023-05-03

Nah, CCP government has no more resilience than the USSR did - do you remember or were you busy when it collapsed?

China as any nation has interests and can be pressured and convinced (I think more convinced than pressured) if it is in their interest. China does not have any more attachment to the RF that it would to any other instrument, party, country or organisation.

What I think is that China needs a strong Russia, to balance the US, and a balanced Russia that does threat with Nukes as a system of living (e.g. North Korea). Russia is not helping at all in any of these.

China is relatively organised and is using the opportunity to look like a mediator and a country of peace.

Glad we both agree that China needs a strong Russia, but I never claimed that China has some special attachment to the RF, but instead saying that they're behaving strictly in the interest of their own self-preservation, which is logical. Just not sure how you then do a 180 flip and try to argue that China can be convinced against that?

How many cookies do you think it'd take to turn Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan against China if Russia falls? A half or they'll do it for free that same day? Willing to speculate how long you think Chinese commie regime would last after Russia falls, and it would be left with North Korea as their only ally?

A party that operates on 30yr+ horizons disregards human life and easily willing to sacrifice decades/generations for some ideology/long term goal, I mean sure, i guess with quantum uncertainty and multiverse technically anything is possible, just good luck convincing people that it's probable.

And you also contradicted yourself by bringing up North Korea, or do you really not know who's backing and allowing them to develop and threaten other with nukes?? But they wouldn't back Russia because of that  Huh umm ok guess it is a position to take

Edit:
"...as any nation has interests and can be pressured and convinced..." you are correct here. So lets try it with other nations.

ChinaUSA as any nation has interests and can be pressured and convinced (I think more convinced than pressured) if it is in their interest. ChinaUSA does not have any more attachment to the RFUkraine that it would to any other instrument, party, country or organisation.

Now the million dollar question is what do you think is more likely to happen, Russia (and inevitable China) collapse thus leaving us with a one world government, or things reverting to their status quo circa 2013? And the biggest question is which would you really prefer.
175  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: July 17, 2023, 01:54:22 PM
I don't think the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end easily. Russia maintains war with Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia wants to take some parts of Ukraine for which they are continuing this war. Because if Russia can occupy some part of Ukraine then it is their own gain.

It has become a long term conflict, or at least it seems to becoming one, sadly.
The only thing about it which I would call positive is the fact that Russia alone cannot hold a long term battle against Ukraine alone, for now the Klemlin depends on the support of their biggest ally: The popular Republic of China.

If someone USA convinced or pressured Chine to stop their military and economical aid to Putin, then Russia would have it very difficult to continue their attacks, they already are getting in trouble economically being their cheap offer of energy a sample of it, in my opinion.

Id wish this non-sense stopped right now, if possible...

This caught my eye, think you have fundamental misunderstanding of the conflict, which puts you in a constant state of bewilderment as to why something is (or is not) happening. Your curios mind led you here for answers, but all the local clown "experts" (propagandists) can do, is to overwhelm you with irrelevant micro level information to sway you their way. Any macro questions are discouraged and just covered by "crazy orcs" or nazis, to dissuade any further questions.

Look at US/NATO military bases around China, look where major military build up is happening outside of Ukraine theater, look at blockade of Cuba that's still going on for 30yrs+ and if anyone really cares for the right of sovereign nations or its people, and current justifications for it. Then ask yourself how long would the commie regime last after the fall of Russia and the sudden onset of democracy cookies (soft power) taken from the "irrelevant" countries/regions of the world and strategically given out say in Kazakhstan? Then the question whether the nation that coined such phrases as "death by a thousand cuts" and "If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by" can be convinced or pressured into stopping aid to Russia, should becomes irrelevant. As well as shed some light on why this counteroffensive was so drummed up, how it's really going, what will happen in about 8 weeks, mid September, once weather changes and any maneuvering becomes impossible and we revert back to positional arty scorched earth advances. Think which side is more affected by the build up of social/financial/political pressures/trends going into the winter and look into who historically benefits from this season

https://www.reuters.com/world/nato-open-japan-office-enable-indo-pacific-consultation-report-2023-05-03
176  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: February 09, 2023, 03:54:23 AM
...

All Russian soldiers, their supporters, and collaborators in Ukraine will be eliminated. It is a given.

Putin can keep sending them, and they will die soon after they arrive.

This is an unwinnable war for Russia.

You really are an unusually good representative of what seems to be the mentality of the standard Ukroid pawn.  Small wonder Ukraine is losing 10 or 15 to one KIA to the Russians.  It's getting more and more difficult to maintain some level of empathy for your class of cretin with every visit this board.

I have to remind myself that it is in the interest of a lot of the small-hats to have the world sympathize not-at-all with the Ukroid slavs who they've decorated up with swastikas and who are the real targets of this genocide, and that there is every possibility that people who act like you are pretending to be something they are not.

People who support Russia are genocidal, imperialist psychopaths.

Russia is the aggressor. Always has been. Ask any of its neighbours.


Yup.  Another classic illustration of the cretinism which characterizes the Ukrainian Nazis under control of the Zelenzkij/Kolomoyski regime (which is itself a tool lovingly cultivated by the OSS/CIA/U.S State Dept for decades.)

Well done, but the question remains as to whether you are 'for real' or LARPing as a mouth-breathing Nazi?  And if the latter, for political, philosophical, or financial reasons or some combination.  There are more than a few desperate 'work-from-home' wanna-be influencer people kicking around who will say and do anything which is spec'd out in a tasking.

---

As for 'Russian aggression', looks to me more like since the fall of the Soviet Union Russia has been quite inward looking.  Even when the Donbass people begged to join Russia they declined and instead went the ultimately futile way of trying negotiating a treaty (Minsk.)  It wasn't their fault that the counter-party (Ukraine and the West) were just trying to buy time to build up for this war and never had any intention of making good on the deal.

Seems that when Russia is reluctantly stirred into action, they take care of business then leave ASAP.  Georgia comes to mind.  In other examples (e.g., Syria) it seems like they do stick around if asked by the client and basically do what is necessary...as long as it doesn't involve crossing their master with the 'Little Horn'.



Ukrainians fought the real Nazis while the Russians were watching from the back. The soldier raising the Soviet flag over the Reichstag was from Sumi. Keep on repeating the official propaganda, that only makes it even more clear that there is no legitimate reason for this aggression. You just say Nazi this or Nazi that... no argument, no credible information, ... you are the definition of a troll, a not very particularly effective one.

The level of propaganda is getting off the charts here. There's whitewashing, rewriting history and then there's this! Surely there's a ton of other shit you can accuse Russians of but this Roll Eyes is this an attempt to polarize and radicalizing your core at the cost of alienating all objective people? Or the quality of propaganda is just a function of desperation?
177  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: October 29, 2022, 08:59:37 AM
RE ghost of Kiev, the first time I hear about it was from an Ukrainian living elsewhere. My answer was "every nation needs their hope".
True or not matters nothing, RF warplanes are a rarity in Ukraine as of now.

RE, blowing of the dam, the news I have (and I do not give much credit either) is that the RF has been considering blowing it up, as it would create a barrier to the Ukrainian current advance in the form of a wasteland of mud. If that happens, it would be when Ukrainian troops get closer and would be fake-informed as an Ukrainian doing.

For Ukraine, there is no strategic, tactical, economical, logistical or even retaliatory value in blowing up Kakhovka dam. There are however excellent reasons to take it intact - including the 357 MW electric generation capability. In terms of getting "even", well, I think Ukraine is trying to avoid that type of answer (I think that their "uncles in the West" are doing a good work at keeping their minds cold).

...

EDIT: Paul Sonne
@PaulSonne

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Putin: The only country in the world that has used nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state is the United States of America

Technically, Polonium-210 is a radioactive substance, and Adolf Putin used it in the UK in 2006, when killing Litvinenko.

Quote
A prominent critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, he advised British intelligence and coined the term "mafia state".[5]

In November 1998, Litvinenko and several other FSB officers publicly accused their superiors of ordering the assassination of the Russian oligarch Boris Berezovsky. Litvinenko was arrested the following March on charges of exceeding the authority of his position. He was acquitted in November 1999 but re-arrested before the charges were again dismissed in 2000. He fled with his family to London and was granted asylum in the United Kingdom...

...

On 1 November 2006, Litvinenko suddenly fell ill and was hospitalised after poisoning by polonium-210; he died from the poisoning on 23 November
...

A public inquiry began on 27 January 2015,[10] and concluded in January 2016 that Litvinenko's murder was carried out by the two suspects and that they were "probably" acting under the direction of the FSB and with the approval of president Vladimir Putin and then FSB director Nikolai Patrushev.


Sadly, the death of  Litvinenko confirms his own assertion of Putin's RF being a Mafia State.

Not that the British  do not like a good mass-murder to make sure "the lesson is not forgotten" (they used to learnt it that way at school at school too). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Dresden_in_World_War_II

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The bombing of Dresden was a joint British and American aerial bombing attack on the city of Dresden, the capital of the German state of Saxony, during World War II. In four raids between 13 and 15 February 1945, 772 heavy bombers of the Royal Air Force (RAF) and 527 of the United States Army Air Forces (USAAF) dropped more than 3,900 tons of high-explosive bombs and incendiary devices on the city.[1] The bombing and the resulting firestorm destroyed more than 1,600 acres (6.5 km2) of the city centre.[2] An estimated 22,700[3] to 25,000[4] people were killed.[a]

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Critics of the bombing have asserted that Dresden was a cultural landmark with little strategic significance, and that the attacks were indiscriminate area bombing and were not proportionate to the military gains.
...


To note, some less reliable sources set the toll at 200,000 killed. I wonder if they though "What is the need for a nuke, when you have phosphor?"

EDIT: I wonder if we should consider the radiation cloud from Chernobyl that was enjoyed by the children on northern and central Europe could be considered as a nuclear attack from the USSR to Europe. They certainly did not tell anyone what was happening - it was Sweden that detected it.

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The initial evidence that a release of radioactive material had occurred came not from Soviet sources, but from Sweden, where on 28 April[17] (two days after the disaster itself) workers at the Forsmark Nuclear Power Plant (approximately 1100 km from the Chernobyl site) were found to have radioactive particles on their clothing.
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Belarus received about 60%
...




Voulez vous vôtre baguette avec un petit peu d´Uranium?




Problem with that line of thinking is that any propaganda can be justified as "hope". How you'll be judged depends on the outcome of the conflict, if your side wins you're praised for lifting the moral and for encouraging fighters towards a quicker victory, if your side loses then you were spreading propaganda were enabler and responsible for more senseless deaths of the naive that actually believed you. Of course propagandists always retort that with "at least it saved the earth/galaxy/universe which would otherwise surely be destroyed next", which of course is unverifiable and just a slippery slope argument.

If radioactive substance == nuclear weapons then

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Karen Gay Silkwood (February 19, 1946 – November 13, 1974) was an American chemical technician and labor union activist known for raising concerns about corporate practices related to health and safety in a nuclear facility.
She worked at the Kerr-McGee Cimarron Fuel Fabrication Site in Oklahoma, making plutonium pellets, and became the first woman on the union's negotiating team. After testifying to the Atomic Energy Commission about her concerns, she was found to have plutonium contamination on her person and in her home. While driving to meet with a New York Times journalist and an official of her union's national office, she died in a car crash under unclear circumstances....her body contained almost 400 times the legal limit for plutonium contamination...she was found to be dangerously contaminated, even expelling contaminated air from her lungs
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_Silkwood

For firebombing which literally start firestorms look into Operation Meetinghouse. If US/Japan relationship can recover from that to what it is now then...
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More than 90,000 and possibly over 100,000 Japanese people were killed, mostly civilians, and one million were left homeless, making it the most destructive single air attack in human history...Some American airmen also needed to use oxygen masks when the odor of burning flesh entered their aircraft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Tokyo_(10_March_1945)



Would be a great answer if my question was how likely it was for Ukraine to lose, only it wasn't and you're once again hilariously trying to weasel out of the question by forming another straw man, your attempts at deceptions entertain me

"what are some major indicators for you that Ukraine might be loosing? [sic]" is a loaded question. I should know better than trying to answer such questions but still, saying that I don't see such "major indicators" or that losing is unlikely - valid answers no matter how much you dislike them.

For Ukraine, there is no strategic, tactical, economical, logistical or even retaliatory value in blowing up Kakhovka dam. There are however excellent reasons to take it intact - including the 357 MW electric generation capability. In terms of getting "even", well, I think Ukraine is trying to avoid that type of answer (I think that their "uncles in the West" are doing a good work at keeping their minds cold).

Putin bombing the shit out of electric supply infrastructure all over Ukraine and also blaming Ukraine for allegedly planning to blow up their own hydro and nuclear plants, typical Russian propaganda projection. "See Ukrainians have these bad terrorist thoughts but we are the good guys totally non-genocidally-terroristically liberating Ukrainians from heat and electricity during the cold season". There are probably some strategists in Kremlin thinking that this will make Ukrainians line the streets waving Russian flags and welcoming the liberators, exactly like they did in Kyiv back in February.

I like how you conveniently leave out that "their own" hydro and nuclear plants, are actually fully controlled and claimed by Russia to now be totally Russian and don't provide any electricity to Ukraine anymore. But your target audience don't really need to know these inconvenient facts at all right? Why even attempt to be objective when you can just keep on pushing your agenda.

See it's only a loaded question for people spreading propaganda, as by definition they can't even discuss negative outcomes or the precursors to them, where objective people can discuss anything. I for one can and did easily state that if Ukraine in total is still taking land in January, Russia might be loosing, or if Ukraine gets tanks and trillions in new commitment to counter RU mobilization (instead of just warm scarfs, gloves and more ammo) it's another indicator of escalation to which RU's only options are either a tactical nuclear response or a total collapse. See how easy it is when you're not just spreading propaganda?
178  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: October 28, 2022, 04:54:27 AM
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You know you have superiority complex, maybe even fascist inclination, when you only
value western media, one that brought us Ghost of Kiev and other such garbage

The only place I've heard of the Ghost of Kiev was this thread, and I think it was you who posted about it. So I think your understanding of "Western media" and how people use it is severely skewed.


Haha playing dumb yet again? Perhaps you should read up on the news first before commenting, i cannot find a mass media outlet that did NOT cover the Ghost of Kyiv. Playing selective ignorance doesn't suit you well at all. You refusal to admit to even knowing a known fakes are quiet telling, guess you don't remember the other "hero" either, the guy who surrendered and received the hero of Ukraine award "posthumously" while in captivity  Grin

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Quote from: GoogleTranslate
"Ghost of Kyiv": the MiG-29 pilot won 6 aerial victories over the occupier in 30 hours
https://www.5.ua/ukrayina/pryvyd-kyieva-pilot-mih-29-za-30-hodyn-zdobuv-6-povitrianykh-peremoh-nad-okupantom-269346.html

Quote from: GoogleTranslate
One Ukrainian pilot shot down six Russian planes
https://ua.korrespondent.net/ukraine/4451566-odyn-ukrainskyi-lotchyk-zbyv-shist-rosiiskykh-litakiv

Quote from: googletranslate
Ghost of Kyiv: how many enemy planes has already been shot down by the Ukrainian hero
https://24tv.ua/privid-kiyeva-skilki-zbiv-litakiv-rosiyi-statistika_n1889483

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Ukraine posts photo of so-called ‘Ghost of Kyiv’ with death threat for Russian troops
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ghost-of-kyiv-ukraine-russia-photo-b2034475.html

Does anyone know this Poroshenko guy? think he was a previous UA president or something?
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The photo shows a MiG-29 pilot. The same "Ghost of Kyiv".
He causes terror in enemies and pride in Ukrainians 🇺🇦
He has 6 victories over Russian pilots!
With such powerful defenders, Ukraine will definitely win!
https://twitter.com/poroshenko/status/1497293195763408905

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Who is the ‘Ghost of Kyiv’? Story of Ukrainian ace pilot goes viral
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According to one widely circulated post, the Ghost of Kyiv supposedly shot down four Russian fighter jets — two Su-35 Flankers, one Su-27 Flanker and one MiG-29 Fulcrum — as well as two ground-attack aircraft, so-called Su-25 Frogfoots.
https://nypost.com/2022/02/25/who-is-the-ghost-of-kyiv-story-of-ukrainian-ace-pilot-goes-viral/

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Meet Ukraine’s Ghost of Kyiv who is ‘coming for Russia’s soul’
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/meet-the-ghost-of-kyiv-coming-for-russias-soul-0s9gn9t89

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The Ghost of Kyiv, Ukraine's urban legend of a hero ace pilot
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Twitter is going wild with the alleged appearance of an unlikely Ukrainian jet pilot who has already downed a confirmed 6 Russian enemy aircrafts.
https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/world-news/2022/02/25/621851ddca4741a0458b4652.html

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Who is the 'Ghost of Kyiv'? Tale of Ukrainian fighter pilot trends on social media
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KYIV, Ukraine - Social media is buzzing about unconfirmed claims that a single fighter pilot — dubbed the "Ghost of Kyiv" — took down six Russian jets.
https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/ghost-of-kyiv-tale-of-ukrainian-fighter-pilot-trends-social-media

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How Ukraine's 'Ghost of Kyiv' legendary pilot was born
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61285833

Let's see what official Air Force Command of UA Armed Forces says about this
Quote from: GoogleTranslate
❗️ Hero of Ukraine Stepan Tarabalka is NOT the "Ghost of Kyiv" and he did NOT shoot down 40 planes.

On March 13, 2022, Major Stepan Tarabalka died heroically in an aerial battle with the superior forces of the Russian invaders. Here is information about him on our official page: https://www.facebook.com/kpszsu/posts/339462291555059.

The ghost of Kyiv is a superhero-legend, whose figure was created by Ukrainians! It is rather a collective image of the pilots of the 40th brigade of tactical aviation of the Air Force, who protect the sky of the capital. Which suddenly appear where they are not expected!
https://www.facebook.com/kpszsu/posts/363834939117794

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The ‘Ghost of Kyiv’ Is a Myth, Ukraine Acknowledges
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/01/world/europe/ghost-kyiv-ukraine-myth.html



Don't blow up the dam? But Russia is adding reinforcements to Kherson down the dam and without the dam Crimea would loose its fresh water access. And you know how Russia likes to blow up their gas pipes and shell their nuclear plants, not sure if they can just hold back from blowing up the dam that helps them so much?

Compelling arguments but I still think that blowing up the dam is a bad idea.

Losing when it might be losing, you could've just said that it's inconceivable to you.  

Losing is unlikely with the way things stand now. "(In)conceivable" tends to be a weasel word in this context but I can understand why you would use it.

Would be a great answer if my question was how likely it was for Ukraine to lose, only it wasn't and you're once again hilariously trying to weasel out of the question by forming another straw man, your attempts at deceptions entertain me
179  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: October 27, 2022, 09:57:47 PM
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Glad we finally found someone who can speak on behalf of the whole country. Now care to provide an example of a nations that don't want to join NATO (if there are any)? Do Belarusians want to join? Serbs? Taiwanese? Australians? How much resources would it take to "convince" a small nation that they want to join NATO? Is it a stable system, if you have a hegemony and global reserve currency what can possible stop you from endless expansion and consumption of more regions? Congrats you have a solution to perpetual word at war! Possible outcomes of conflict in Ukraine, either things go how they were prior to 2014, or Ukraine enters NATO and it starts all over, world gets dragged into the same thing but now to free people in Belarus because they just want to join NATO so muuch!




I guess if the masses don't question why would Russia shoot at the nuclear power plant that it controls, let people out of Mariupol before taking it over, or blow up their own gas pipeline before it's needed the most, they won't question why would UA's Major General of Defence Intelligence Agency want to take Nova Kakhovka dam under artillery fire control, or how exactly that would accelerate Russian withdrawal? I mean people still believe that Orc's just like to shoot at themselves for fun right?? Roll Eyes Or did CNN started to push RU propaganda?

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The head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Agency, Major Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told CNN on Wednesday, “the Russians are trying to remove and take with them all the remains of their so-called ‘occupation administration’ from Kherson city and surrounding areas.”
...
 Russia, he said, “realizes and understands the whole difficulty of their situation and they don’t want to be totally encircled.”

Budanov said the Russian withdrawal will accelerate when Ukraine “takes the Nova Kakhovka dam under our artillery fire control.”

“That’s why all our fighting units are moving towards both Kherson and Nova Kakhovka,” he added.  
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-26-22#h_8270748d1157f665c09b2df10d90501d


The "gas pipes" were blown up by the RF, international experts have expressed serious concerns about Zapo plant being blown as the RF does not accept a demilitarised zone around it. And, most importantly, the control of the dam is key for Crimea as it may restrict (or allow) the water supply, not something to blow up with artillery (another stupid theory - Ukraine blowing up the key to their hold over Crimea) and that is why it may have been mentioned.

Now, go back to the drawing board of your alternate reality. BTW, curiously and as of now, your link points to this headline:
Quote
20 hr 19 min ago
Ukraine's military intelligence says Russia is reinforcing Kherson with recruits as "cannon fodder"
From CNN's Nic Robertson in Kyiv
Ukraine’s military intelligence says Russia continues to remove its “occupation administration” from the southern Kherson region but is reinforcing the city with recently mobilized recruits and suggests they are being used as “cannon fodder.”

Ah such a concise and clear explanation, so general wants to take the damn under artillery fire because it's a key for Crimea and that's why it'll accelerate Russian withdrawal? Clear as mud, but who cares just need to arrange words in a somewhat readable sentence, targeted audience can't think for themselves anyway.

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"I don't see them [the Russians] running away from Kherson. This is an information attack, I can't disclose everything. This is an attack so that we go there, so that we transfer our troops there from other dangerous directions. It was their [Russian] information operation. They [the Russians] are not ready to leave Kherson. But they know that if we succeed, they won't be able to leave. The Russians are aware of this problem and danger," Zelensky said.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3602356-russians-not-fleeing-from-kherson-besttrained-soldiers-remain-in-place-zelensky.html

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Ukraine Situation Report: Intel Chief Says Russia Is Reinforcing Kherson City
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-situation-report-intel-chief-says-russia-is-reinforcing-kherson-city/ar-AA13kUop

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Blowing the Soviet-era dam, which is controlled by Russia, would unleash a wall of devastating floodwater across much of the Kherson region which Russia last month proclaimed as annexed in the face of a Ukrainian advance.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/is-kakhovka-dam-ukraine-about-be-blown-2022-10-21/

I'm sure by "artillery fire control" what the general really meant was "to secure and provide safety for" and it will accelerate withdrawal because Russians will just piss their pants and run away from such provided safety to the damn! Right? I need this, please lie to me some more!

Ask any friend you have in the military why they want to have a dam they intend to eventually control firstly "in artillery range". Hint 1: When you are not in the enemy's artillery range, the enemy cannot shell your position to dust. Hint 2: if you are under shelling, it is usually a bad idea to stay there. Read carefully: Not the dam, the military positions around the dam. I hope this is correctly understood.

I just said why, but it aaaaalll right... I can say it again: Nearly all the water supply to Crimea comes from the canal on the east bank near the dam. The general is sending a clear message to the world: "The RF is about to loose a critical asset to hold the grip on Crimea".

I rarely say anything categorically, but on this case, it is very clear that it would ridiculously stupid for Ukraine to blow that dam. The sad thing is that, if it ever happens nobody would claim ownership of the f**kup.

Ahhh well now you cleared it up, so when general says when he "takes the Nova Kakhovka dam under our artillery fire control.”  what he's actually talking about is the military positions that just happened to be around the dam, and the dam being in the vicinity of this is just a silly coincidence. Now this is a story i can believe! Why would Ukraine blow up the damn that brings fresh water to Crimea that would be nonsense right?  Undecided



The point is to underline the absurdity of the claims, not sure where you're seeing ura-patriotism!?!

Absurdity of which claims? You're the one throwing a bunch of random stuff out here, mostly Kremlin propaganda in the form of loaded or rhetorical questions. Granted that's quite absurd so mission accomplished I guess.

What is pretty certain that if damn is blown while over 50% of Kherson is under RU control, then Orcs just like to shoot at themselves, if it's blown when UA takes over 50% then RU are terrorists.

Well, that's an easy one to avoid. Don't blow up the dam.
...
does it really matter outside of posturing and these forum bickering? What interests me more are concrete indicators of the conflict turning one way or the other. Let me ask you this, what are some major indicators for you that Ukraine might be loosing? (Or it's just inconceivable for you?)

If it starts losing that would be a major indicator that it might be losing....

Don't blow up the dam? But Russia is adding reinforcements to Kherson down the dam and without the dam Crimea would loose its fresh water access. And you know how Russia likes to blow up their gas pipes and shell their nuclear plants, not sure if they can just hold back from blowing up the dam that helps them so much?

Losing when it might be losing, you could've just said that it's inconceivable to you.  
180  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: October 27, 2022, 06:40:29 PM
I'm sure by "artillery fire control" what the general really meant was "to secure and provide safety for" and it will accelerate withdrawal because Russians will just piss their pants and run away from such provided safety to the damn! Right? I need this, please lie to me some more!

Is there a point you're trying to make or do you just need to vent your ura-patriotism after Putin's speech?

Are Russians not going to run from Kherson?

The point is to underline the absurdity of the claims, not sure where you're seeing ura-patriotism!?! What is pretty certain that if damn is blown while over 50% of Kherson is under RU control, then Orcs just like to shoot at themselves, if it's blown when UA takes over 50% then RU are terrorists. I'm just glad that Russians are at least evacuating civilians! Ukraine's window of opportunity is shrinking, winter is coming it'll take away mobility and cover which Ukraine managed to greatly use to its advantage. Ukraine needs to throw in all it got before that, is it enough to take Kherson? i have no idea (i didn't even think UA could take all that land by Kharkiv), do you consider it or Bakhmut a decisive battle? does it really matter outside of posturing and these forum bickering? What interests me more are concrete indicators of the conflict turning one way or the other. Let me ask you this, what are some major indicators for you that Ukraine might be loosing? (Or it's just inconceivable for you?) Here's what i'm looking at
Elections in US Watch as support for funding Ukraine erodes among Republicans
GBP, EUR, JPY, RUB, USD rates.
Indicators of Belarus joining the conflict opening new front
New committed aid to Ukraine UA believes that it's fighting for EU, will EU provide electricity to Ukraine?
Will new UK prime minister hold out longer than a head of lettuce?
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