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Let's be honest Here those fat cats got wealth by just inheritance...
Or Went in private schools on their young age just coz they from nobility and up class family...
What make them so Special or smarter? Non!
Its just they play together against others.
And Bitcoin belong to them so no point about crypto anymore If I invest in btc im depend on those wealthy fat rich guys who never worked in their lifes and never need to proof themselfes coz they all ready from higher class.
Yes the life is easy and wealthy for them but their personal development is zero.
They Can stay Only Behind their private vip schools diplomas but are they really better?
I doubt that they not even smarter.
Now they own Bitcoin so we might just admit Right to way we are slaves of them with no options at all
What we Can do? Nothing even You try to do Something the the tax and government Will stop You down.
So What's the point to continue to play game named as success If the game is rigged and scam anyways?
If we all Know that someone got just More privileges then we should stop being critical about Our lifes even we try 10000000 times hard we end up just fully exhausted and empty of energy.
Its better to give up in life and stop trying so hard to be financially Independent and Succesful.
The game is not fair so its Impossible for Acerage person to reach anywhere in life.
I give up no point!
Ok, thanks for informing all of us. As a side note, just remember that unfortunately giving up is not really an option, as by default you're placed into the fiat system (so the choice has already been made for you) where you're guaranteed to loose. BTC is an option to exit that system and at least gives you a fighting chance, there are no guarantees but the more you educate yourself the better your chances become. But to each his own, now back to discussion on grayscale |
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<...> Also from your other graph % of locked shares is currently at 36,5% which is at the same level as it was in Sept 2020 when BTC price was around $10k. Still high, but will keep going down everyday the primary is closed/fund is trading at discount. At this rate we should be under 25% of locked shares by May 10th, and under 20% by May 24th, so might see discount till May after that things should come back to normal  Very true. The selling pressure is going to be real. I am just curious how Grayscale is going to handle this new situation for them, as they have been riding the positive premium for years! I say keep it inside their walled garden and let retirement funds enjoy the discount at the cost of arbitrageurs i.e. don't offer redemption and let it trade at discount until all absorbed on the secondary. Allowing redemption will just bring in a ton of market makers forcing the fund to sell real BTC on the market, which might cause further price decrease causing more people sell their shares raising the discount again etc etc at least until US ETF comes online Are You part of grayscale? Why Else You promote grayscale Here then?
And Why we should be grateful the Bitcoin is low Not even 100k 200k Price range.
If the Wall street are in at least they should send the Bitcoin Price Up Why else we need them in Bitcoin?
Let the grayscale do Something useful for us
Yeah pretty much what JJG said, math is under no obligation to you or anyone, honey badger don't care about entitlements or your feelings. Grayscale is just one tool to own BTC indirectly, and it's the easiest way to get exposure to BTC in a US retirement account. Just as a hammer can't do anything useful to you, but if you know how to use it you can build great things with it. fillippone has done a great job collecting the knowledge, tracking performance of this fund and sharing it with everyone so people can better understand it and make more informed decisions. As far as "wall street" they're just a primitive "animal" they only have one function, if there's profit to be made, they'll come (for better or worse)  |
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Negative premium is becoming a thing in GBTC: yesterday it hit -11%.  That makes the shares in the secondary market quite a bargain! But I am a little bit worried by now: where this selling pressure is going to? Flowing to another "ETF"? outright selling? Also, from the spreadsheet: what is going o happen when those massive quantities of locked shares become freely tradable?  Also from your other graph % of locked shares is currently at 36,5% which is at the same level as it was in Sept 2020 when BTC price was around $10k. Still high, but will keep going down everyday the primary is closed/fund is trading at discount. At this rate we should be under 25% of locked shares by May 10th, and under 20% by May 24th, so might see discount till May after that things should come back to normal |
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I'm with the other guy who thinks we should be grounded in reality for now. Space elevators are fun and all, but we could still cover a lot of surface area on the planet, maybe even in the oceans, for plenty of solar panels / arrays to power the world (or a bitcoin miner.) I found this before: https://landartgenerator.org/blagi/archives/127 So it's not updated, but you can line up a whole bunch of solar panels near the equator and not much is needed to power the world (not including bitcoin miners) ... That article also discusses wind power and hydroelectric power. Edit: here is another one just for bitcoin. https://landartgenerator.org/blagi/archives/5697 Well I have been in similar discussion with friends who still didn’t accept Bitcoin yet. So one time we discussed that it’s a fact tha a SME (coronal mass ejection) is a serious threat to humanity. And if it happens it will be a complete blackout for days, months or may be years. In such a mass disaster what will happen to Bitcoin?? when this whole Bitcoin echo system needs so much energy and constant internet connection how Bitcoin will survive? Whereas paper money or gold can still be valued and used in such scenarios like nothing happened. Well lets see, assuming mass CME lasting 24hrs to cover all of earth, power grid is fried, nuclear power plants shutting down some blowing up cause their redundant safety mechanisms are fried, some nuclear weapons/ships/submarines/planes might go boom, satellites supposed to have some protection but chances are won't hold up to such massive CME so GPS and SAT communications are done, planes falling out of the sky, mass hysteria, supply chains disrupted shortages of food widespread, armies are reduced to few guys running around with guns, ATMs are used for target practice etc, etc, etc... and you think i'll accept your monopoly coupons or shiny metal for this chicken that i'm trying to sell because i need more ammo? If such major disaster happens BTC would be the last of your worries. On a bright side surviving society's priority would be restoring the internet, once that's back up BTC would be the first one to come back online before any bank or ATM will start working. |
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Can't you just point it there, fire a thruster, and let it go it's course? (I mean, calculate where it should end up, but yeah, basically go towards the sun.)
Nope. I think Larry Niven covered this too, prolific guy. You either speed it up, which takes it to a higher orbit or slow it down which takes it to a lower orbit. To take it to an orbit low enough to burn up in the sun, you need to slow it down the whole amount that the earth is orbiting the sun (about 67000 mph). There's a little bit of fudge in this due to eliptical orbits and drag from the sun's atmosphere but that's the basic principle. Essentially anything you fire into the sun is going to get there on a spiral path. Correct. I really recommend reading up on the Messenger probe that went to Mercury, it needed an insane amount of fuel and a number of earth and venus flybys to slow down enough to even get to mercury. In space speeding up takes energy, slowing down takes energy, everything takes energy :-) So, that last part, spend a little energy to throw something to the sun, then let it be.. It's going to spiral and never really get there and just be some space debris / comet? I'd imagine if we have like a bunch of stuff (remember very old superman movie with nuclear bomb rockets in a large bundle that he just threw to the sun), but then that whole thing must be very heavy. I always thought that the challenge was to calculate perfect orbits without it getting pulled in and crashing. Now getting into an orbit around the sun is the easy part? |
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As of March 4th Canada's BTCC (TSX) ETF is holding BTC11.352 https://www.purposeinvest.com/funds/purpose-bitcoin-etfCanada's EBIT (TSX) ETF has AUM of $50.680MM or at $46.500 thats BTC1089 https://evolveetfs.com/product/ebit/they only started to trade like 2 weeks ago Just those two Canadian ETFs are eating up all of the newly mined BTC900/day supply. Grayscale GBTC offers no redemption so their BTC655.732 are not for sale. Distribution is a beautiful thing, expecting lambo traffic jams soon  |
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Here's a interesting comment on seekingalpha about the current GBTC discount: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3669426-mulling-bitcoin-and-100k-is-grayscales-discount-a-buy-signal"Three reasons Grayscale (GBTC) is trading at a whopping big discount to the bitcoin it owns: (1) New ETF products that don't charge a hefty 2% annual fee for holding your bitcoin may soon appear. (2) GBTC is not redeemable. If the GBTC discount becomes excessive, Grayscale still owns the bitcoin, but existing shareholders get nothing and can't get the bitcoin out. So far as I know, there is no mechanism to bring the share price into line with the bitcoin price, which is why Im not buying any more GBTC. (3) ARKK is likely being forced to liquidate its holdings due to redemptions. As ARKK holds its bitcoin in GBTC, forced sales into a declining market could be pushing down GBTC to a huge discount."I had not considered the sale pressure from a possible ARK liquidation. I double checked ARK ETF's that have GBTC, and it is not ARKK. It is in ARKW (ARK NEXT GENERATION INTERNET ETF), where GBTC is the 3rd largest position (after Tesla and Square), at 8,309,914 shares with market value of $344,030,439.60 for 4.77% weight of the fund. GBTC has Shares Outstanding 692.3M, so ARKW holds 1.200% (8.309914M/692.3M). I'm not sure if ARKW selling a bit of their a little over 1% would cause such a large drop in GBTC premium. But in any case, I think it might be a good time to add some GBTC! I'm not sure why everyone leaves this out, but don't forget that you're comparing the spot price of the secondary market (closing price of BTC Trust shares at 4PM ET on OTCQX®) to the BTC's volume weighted average price for the last 24hr (based on a 24 hour VWAP of TradeBlock’s XBX Index) which is really not an ideal comparison. When markets go down during the day your spot at 4pm will almost always be lower than the average, same is true for the opposite, market sharply going up means your spot at the end of the day is likely higher then the avg for the last 24hrs (weighted by volume). Looks like spot TradeBlock’s XBX on March 4th 4pm was around $48.192 ( https://tradeblock.com/markets/index conveniently they're also showing GDAXs discount at -8,01% today) with Bitcoin per Share at 0,00094685 that would put BTC's spot NAV at $45,63 vs $46.83 (March 4th 4pm ET, based on a 24 hour VWAP of TradeBlock’s XBX Index). There's still a discount but it narrows the gap. As far as speculating on the reasons, GBTC fees are 2% while Canada's ETF BTCC (TSX) appear to be 1% and EBIT (TSX) is at 0,75%, naturally once you have an option people would gravitate towards lower fee structures. I might be mistaken, but i don't think Canada's market are an option for US retirement accounts  so until US ETF comes around GBTC (or similar fund) is your only option. GBTC is now closed and doesn't issue new shares, so inflows from retirement accounts into GBTC must absorb temporary outflows from regular accounts leaving for Canada. But there's a lag of people who bought at the primary and are currently locked in for 6month, so as long as there's net demand from pensions for exposure to BTC, discount might continue for the maximum of 6month (baring US ETF). tl;dr without US ETF discount should be temporary for the max of 6m. With the fiat printer going full Brrrr i'd be surprised to see US approve ETF, I'd expect them to hold out for as long as possible. |
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Good Morning WOvians ... So we had a huge dump from our friend the fuck2pool again this night to get the price down under 50k ... luckly we closed yesterday over 50k. We had a nice breakout to the upper side of the bull-flag ... and it seems to be goingupwarts until a bigger dump cam up. My suggestion is again a couple of thousands corns were dumped from fuck2pool ...
Where do you get the data for f2pool? Also, don't be too worried, the market will eat up all their coins. In addition, I think they are a chinese pool right? this means if they say they have a million coins they actually have no more than 100k. The chinese are so full of shit, they big note themselves at every moment. It's for 'face' everything is about face for these tossers. CryptosRus makes several videos about this. They aree the only once how has and bitcoin outflow since december. And maybe it'S because they have mining farms in regions, where they forbidd mining in the future. Nobody knows, why they doing it, but they doing it. Nevertheless the number of coins they are moving ... Add several thousend to the market and the price is suffering. The same, add fiat money to the market and the price will go up. Cryptoquant is one source. You can see the daily outflow for free. The hourly outflow you have to pay for it. https://cryptoquant.com/overview/full/227?window=dayTo be clear. We can trade millions of coins between us, there is not much price movement. You have to put in fresh (fiat) money, than the price goes up or you put "fresh" coins to the market and the price is going down. In the long run they will loose and their coins will be eaten up. But they can cause movement around some key points and invalid outbreak on patterns for example or put us under a psychological barrier ... So don'T underestmated the force of 8400 addtional coins on the market... Yesterday, for example. You are right, if we have a massive buyer market, then they coins will be eaten up very fast! Thanks for the link. Yeah, long term is the way. I'm not going to deny that the short term movements from these sort of things don't suck, but long term its upward with f2pool sliding into irrelevancy. Btw. 8400 Coins sems small when you see the movment on the market. But these are 420.000.000$ .. these are 42% of what michael put in fiat on the market. So 400 M$ has an impact in both ends. In fiat also in coins ... willy woo says that glassnode data that checks the pool sales on exchanges does not at all hint any big f2pool sell. So if they're tracing the outflows of f2pool, why can't they show remaining balance? This is bitcoin we're talking here right? Plus i doubt that it's them, shouldn't Gox be liquidating their coins to pay out the claims that decided to be settled in cash soon? |
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Money printer is going Brrrr and they're out there cheer leading, trying to convince everyone how somehow that should not cause inflation. Frankly they'd be shooting themselves in the foot (even more so) if they allowed ETF right now. Can you imagine the front page headlines Brrrr printer printed gazillion dollars, on separate and totally unrelated news, BTC ETF is the best performing ETF and saw a gazillion dollar inflow in the same time period  2+2=?? |
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Are we finally seeing the beginning of the end for Grayscale's dominance of the way institutional buyers get exposure to Bitcoin??
Premium has collapsed due to lack of buyers in their primary market. So they've closed the fund, no doubt hoping to build up buy momentum by not allowing buys for a bit. Pretty bad when you are the market leader in the hottest investment in the world but you have to artificially try to inflate your premium/profits by closing the fund.
With other trusts and hedge funds opening up the past couple months, plus the Canadian ETFs just starting recently, I can see the high premium / high fee model of Grayscale starting to seem highly outdated to investors. Premiums and fees should in general shrink close to zero in a world in which there are more and more ways to get into Bitcoin. Not too surprising to see Grayscale market drying up as Wall St gets more and cheaper and more direct options to get into Bitcoin.
Only thing that sucks is that for the past few months we could get a good judgement of institutional buying just from looking at Grayscale, which is obviously not the case anymore.
Negative, premium has collapsed due to lack of buyers in their secondary market. Primary market buys at NAV so directly tied to bitcoin price. As far as it being the end for them, only when better alternatives like ETF come online, until then that's the only game in town for pension funds and people who want to hold paper BTC. Ah perhaps you're right about the secondary as opposed to the primary market. But the main point is both the primary and secondary market have collapsed for Grayscale. This is because there are better alternatives already. Several competing trusts and funds that are cheaper have come out the past couple months, plus there are two Canadian ETFs now that I believe US investors should have full access to (though I'm sure a US ETF will gain a lot more traction than Canadian ones). Both Grayscale markets are collapsing because investors have better cheaper options now that Grayscale isn't the only game in town. It only dominated before because it was the only game in town for people who either legally couldn't or didn't want to directly buy Bitcoin. Grayscale need to drop their fees quite a bit if they want to have any chance of competing against the alternatives. Primary market just tracks BTC price and cannot collapse especially without redemption. Redemption would provide a floor for the secondary market. Not sure which better alternatives you're talking about, I'm not sure if US retirement accounts are allowed to invest in Canada's ETF on TSX as far as other OTC funds, as long as inflow funds are restricted from trading for 6m-1yr there should always be a premium on secondary market. GBTC has first mover advantage and that means volume, sure other OTC funds can offer lower management fees say 50bps, but with everything else being equal all that would mean that GBTC would be trading just 1.5% lower vs the other fund. I can't see how 2% management fees can cause premiums to go from 40% to a -2% discount. All the premium discount means is that there are more sellers on secondary market than buyers. It might be simply because of the correction, or rumors of US ETF spooked the market or/and someone is front running the news. With shares trading at discount there's no reason to pay more at the primary and be locked in for 6m when you can pay less for exactly same shares and don't have any restrictions. All the "true" cash that was coming in the primary should theoretically now just come in on secondary, of cours without the in-kind trades and cash that was coming in simply to arb the premium. |
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Are we finally seeing the beginning of the end for Grayscale's dominance of the way institutional buyers get exposure to Bitcoin??
Premium has collapsed due to lack of buyers in their primary market. So they've closed the fund, no doubt hoping to build up buy momentum by not allowing buys for a bit. Pretty bad when you are the market leader in the hottest investment in the world but you have to artificially try to inflate your premium/profits by closing the fund.
With other trusts and hedge funds opening up the past couple months, plus the Canadian ETFs just starting recently, I can see the high premium / high fee model of Grayscale starting to seem highly outdated to investors. Premiums and fees should in general shrink close to zero in a world in which there are more and more ways to get into Bitcoin. Not too surprising to see Grayscale market drying up as Wall St gets more and cheaper and more direct options to get into Bitcoin.
Only thing that sucks is that for the past few months we could get a good judgement of institutional buying just from looking at Grayscale, which is obviously not the case anymore.
Negative, premium has collapsed due to lack of buyers in their secondary market. Primary market buys at NAV so directly tied to bitcoin price. As far as it being the end for them, only when better alternatives like ETF come online, until then that's the only game in town for pension funds and people who want to hold paper BTC. |
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bid order book is paper thin, feels like one entity just buying it up
Yeah, but it was also one entity yesterday who dumped it down to 47k ... so ... hope for the best... and today was constantly selling into bulls. Just shows how early we are where one whale can swing the market around like that |
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bid order book is paper thin, feels like one entity just buying it up
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Man... this is not a support group here!!! THis is Not f^cking AA for BTCiTcoin!!!!!!   When? s/he has been on my ignore list since i don't know when, quiet annoying when everyone is quoting him/her |
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Nice BTC150 ask wall in coinbase, someone has been regularly cashing out hundreds of coins there, lets see how many more they got
Edit: and eaten, next bump $50k
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...
Of course, this means you could go and buy a GBTC share and own roughly 0.09 BTC at discount.
This is clearly unbearable for Grayscale who is the first benefiter, together with the primary market buyer, of a high NAV premium.
So Grayscale reacted by closing the primary market for GBTC.
...
Why is this unbearable for Grayscale? Sure no one would buy at discount on primary market so they might as well close that (as they did) but they still continue to collect their daily managing fee on all outstanding shares. And without a way to decrease outstanding shares (no redemption) i doubt they're complaining much. |
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As we were discussing for the necessity of a correction, I am noticing that Net Realised PnL of the market has just turned negative:  https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=Market%20Indicators&m=indicators.NetRealizedProfitLossWhat is this? Net Realized Profit/Loss is the net profit or loss of all moved coins, and is defined by the difference of Realized Profit - Realized Loss
So we are basically looking at the difference between Realized Profit denotes the total profit (USD value) of all moved coins whose price at their last movement was lower than the price at the current movement.
And of course: Realized Loss denotes the total loss (USD value) of all moved coins whose price at their last movement was higher than the price at the current movement.
This means market is coooling off, a lot of traders are now in the red, and the trades making money are now less than those losing money. This balanced situation in the past was a prerequisite for the subsequent ramp up in the market. I think this time won’t be different. A month ago when we crossed this price for the first time we were at ATH. This means that overwhelming majority of transactions are spending UTXOs from within this month. New money just slushing around bloating the blocks, BTC float must be tinier than i thought Edit: can also just be the outflow from exchanges of BTC bought this month e.g. Elon moving his stash to cold wallet |
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Was curious how they'd handle discount And now we know, no new shares, can't imagine anyone would want to pay more for primary shares just to have them locked for 6 months. "The Grayscale® Bitcoin Trust private placement is offered on a periodic basis throughout the year and is currently closed." https://grayscale.co/bitcoin-trust/ |
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Ayre shorts, faketoshi drops bomb on suing devs/jesus/planet/whateves rinse, repeat
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