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61  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 07, 2024, 06:08:50 PM
does anybody know something about OKX bidding up transaction fees rn?


edit:
found this
https://crypto.news/okx-admits-testing-collection-program-as-bitcoin-fees-skyrocket/

Dumping ~BTC200 in fees on a test? Sounds totally plausible

62  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: June 07, 2024, 03:22:09 PM
[...]
...
Putin also said that the ratio of "irretrievable losses" between Russia and Ukraine was one to five in favor of Moscow.

Those numbers would be catastrophic even before we consider Russia's 3:1 advantage in population. History will not judge Zelenskyy kindly if real numbers are anything close to this, once revealed. Lowering age of mobilized Ukrainian conscripts only provides hints of the horrifying dynamics

They "would"... you know.... Can you picture any situation in which Putin would go and say that Ruzzian losses are actually 5 to 1 Ukrainian? It is just ridiculous that you even try to pass that information as credible or remotely accurate.
[...]

Can you picture any situation in which Zelenskyy would go and say that Ukrainian losses are actually 3 to 1 Russian? It is just ridiculous that you even try to pass that information as credible or remotely accurate.  Roll Eyes

Zelensky nor I did not make the claim. You did on behalf of your handlers at the farm. It is just silly to post Putin speaking about losses ratio (he is probably being lied to anyway), but I did not. You did.

Are you now saying that Zelenskyy doesn't represent UA military or he's not in control of his defense forces? Or are you saying you can picture situation in which UA military (sans Zelenskyy) would go and say that Ukrainian losses are actually higher than Russian? You got to pick one here

No, I have said what is written (a) Putin made a claim about the losses ratio and you gave it credibility when is never going to be a real assessment and (b) You, as usual, wondered about claiming that "Zelensky would not give accurate information either" which may or may not be true, but I did not make any claim about it.

just read it, it is right there. But this follows the same pattern of giving credibility to "opinions" or biased data, so no surprise here.

...

You literally posted about Ukraine's military making claims on Russian losses and gave it credibility when it's never going to be a real assessment. I provided claims by Russian commander on Ukrainian losses. You doubted it saying It is just ridiculous that you even try to pass that information as credible or remotely accurate. and attempted to justify that logic by asking Can you picture any situation in which Putin would go and say that Ruzzian losses are actually 5 to 1 Ukrainian? i countered that and pointed out your double standards just by mirroring your question and asked if you could picture any situation in which UA forces (Zelenskyy) would go and say that Ukrainian losses are actually higher than Russian.

What exactly you cannot follow in that?

You realize how ridiculous you sound by constantly posting outlandish claims, but when presented with claims from the other side you just start yelling that it's opinion but not facts? It's especially hilarious when you talk about "opinions" only in the same day to post stuff like "It has been mentioned that ATACAMS have been approved to be used up to 200 miles (roughly 300 km) across the whole front.".



Edited for clarity.
63  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: June 07, 2024, 02:22:47 PM
[...]
...
Putin also said that the ratio of "irretrievable losses" between Russia and Ukraine was one to five in favor of Moscow.

Those numbers would be catastrophic even before we consider Russia's 3:1 advantage in population. History will not judge Zelenskyy kindly if real numbers are anything close to this, once revealed. Lowering age of mobilized Ukrainian conscripts only provides hints of the horrifying dynamics

They "would"... you know.... Can you picture any situation in which Putin would go and say that Ruzzian losses are actually 5 to 1 Ukrainian? It is just ridiculous that you even try to pass that information as credible or remotely accurate.

So back to the real world:

https://www.politico.eu/article/france-fighter-jets-military-aviation-ukraine-emmanuel-macron-kyiv-direct-support-russia-war/

Quote
President Emmanuel Macron announced Thursday that France would send Mirage 2000 fighter jets to Ukraine, in what would appear to be a significant increase in his country's direct military support to Kyiv.

"Tomorrow we will launch a new cooperation and announce the transfer of Mirage 2000 [jets], which help Ukraine protect its skies," Macron said during an interview with broadcaster TF1 in the northern city of Caen, coinciding with the start of an official visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The French president also said Ukrainians would receive training in France for five to six months as early as this summer, with a target of training 4,500 service personnel.

If you think of this, it makes perfect sense. Once you got that many people trained in this plane, France will likely be a long term supplier. f16's are pretty much confirmed and there are thousands around the world. The right aircraft for Ukraine would be the Gripen, but unfortunately seems more difficult to obtain.

What Putin has achieved is fantastic - sorry, he would give a speech on this - Europe an the US are not just supporting Ukraine, they are actually racing to be preferred supplier.

It has been mentioned that ATACAMS have been approved to be used up to 200 miles (roughly 300 km) across the whole front. Get used to be "in range".

More refining capacity was put in the "pending repairs list" - repairs that will never come - by drones in Rostov on don. Pictures will be available later.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/06/ukraine-war-briefing-power-cuts-ordered-as-russian-attacks-create-catastrophic-shortages

Rostov in range:
https://youtu.be/UHJBA0Az_HY

Edited to add: It seems that also a few millions in ground-to-air munitions from the US. There is this old missile called "hawk" that is quite old and possibly quite a few of them about to expire like a yogurt, but depending on the model, they are perfect for Cruise missiles and perhaps to Saheds if needed. Quite portable and easy to relocate it is.

Can you picture any situation in which Zelenskyy would go and say that Ukrainian losses are actually 3 to 1 Russian? It is just ridiculous that you even try to pass that information as credible or remotely accurate.  Roll Eyes

Zelensky nor I did not make the claim. You did on behalf of your handlers at the farm. It is just silly to post Putin speaking about losses ratio (he is probably being lied to anyway), but I did not. You did.

Are you now saying that Zelenskyy doesn't represent UA military or he's not in control of his defense forces? Or are you saying you can picture situation in which UA military (sans Zelenskyy) would go and say that Ukrainian losses are actually higher than Russian? You got to pick one here
64  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: June 07, 2024, 01:45:50 PM
[...]
...
Putin also said that the ratio of "irretrievable losses" between Russia and Ukraine was one to five in favor of Moscow.

Those numbers would be catastrophic even before we consider Russia's 3:1 advantage in population. History will not judge Zelenskyy kindly if real numbers are anything close to this, once revealed. Lowering age of mobilized Ukrainian conscripts only provides hints of the horrifying dynamics

They "would"... you know.... Can you picture any situation in which Putin would go and say that Ruzzian losses are actually 5 to 1 Ukrainian? It is just ridiculous that you even try to pass that information as credible or remotely accurate.

So back to the real world:

https://www.politico.eu/article/france-fighter-jets-military-aviation-ukraine-emmanuel-macron-kyiv-direct-support-russia-war/

Quote
President Emmanuel Macron announced Thursday that France would send Mirage 2000 fighter jets to Ukraine, in what would appear to be a significant increase in his country's direct military support to Kyiv.

"Tomorrow we will launch a new cooperation and announce the transfer of Mirage 2000 [jets], which help Ukraine protect its skies," Macron said during an interview with broadcaster TF1 in the northern city of Caen, coinciding with the start of an official visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The French president also said Ukrainians would receive training in France for five to six months as early as this summer, with a target of training 4,500 service personnel.

If you think of this, it makes perfect sense. Once you got that many people trained in this plane, France will likely be a long term supplier. f16's are pretty much confirmed and there are thousands around the world. The right aircraft for Ukraine would be the Gripen, but unfortunately seems more difficult to obtain.

What Putin has achieved is fantastic - sorry, he would give a speech on this - Europe an the US are not just supporting Ukraine, they are actually racing to be preferred supplier.

It has been mentioned that ATACAMS have been approved to be used up to 200 miles (roughly 300 km) across the whole front. Get used to be "in range".

More refining capacity was put in the "pending repairs list" - repairs that will never come - by drones in Rostov on don. Pictures will be available later.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/06/ukraine-war-briefing-power-cuts-ordered-as-russian-attacks-create-catastrophic-shortages

Rostov in range:
https://youtu.be/UHJBA0Az_HY

Edited to add: It seems that also a few millions in ground-to-air munitions from the US. There is this old missile called "hawk" that is quite old and possibly quite a few of them about to expire like a yogurt, but depending on the model, they are perfect for Cruise missiles and perhaps to Saheds if needed. Quite portable and easy to relocate it is.

Can you picture any situation in which Zelenskyy would go and say that Ukrainian losses are actually 3 to 1 Russian? It is just ridiculous that you even try to pass that information as credible or remotely accurate.  Roll Eyes
65  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: June 07, 2024, 01:48:45 AM
^^^^^How can you tell that this is propaganda and where it comes from? Just notice it says "The Ukrainian Crisis". There is no "Ukrainian Crisis", there is an "Invasion of Ukraine by Ruzzia".

The rest is as good as the tittle. But it is irrelevant for the discourse of the war.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-casualties-tanks-apvs-vehicles-lost-artillery-systems-ukraine-1907814

Quote
Russian forces lost nearly 1,300 fighters, more than 100 vehicles of various types and 65 artillery systems in the past day, according to Ukraine, shortly after Kyiv reported the highest number of monthly Russian casualties and artillery losses in the war-torn country.

And this is not a one-off, it is has been like this since Ruzzia started the invasion of Karkhiv Oblast. Or like you would be like it to call it "the Crisis in Karkhiv" or the "special military operation".

This is what means "to be in range" and there is going to be much more equipment "in range".

Initial source "published by Ukraine's military" https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1797857800309411907 so propaganda wrapped into newsweek.com wrapper to provide more legitimacy? But since we're citing direct side of the conflict on losses, to get a full-er picture would it not be beneficial to cite both sides?

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday gave a rare update on casualty and prisoner-of-war figures from Moscow's ongoing war in Ukraine, saying to international journalists that Kyiv's losses were several times that of Moscow's
...
president told the heads of international news agencies at a meeting in St. Petersburg that there are 1,348 Russian soldiers and officers in captivity in Ukraine, versus 6,465 Ukrainians in Russian detention.
...
Putin also said that the ratio of "irretrievable losses" between Russia and Ukraine was one to five in favor of Moscow.

Those numbers would be catastrophic even before we consider Russia's 3:1 advantage in population. History will not judge Zelenskyy kindly if real numbers are anything close to this, once revealed. Lowering age of mobilized Ukrainian conscripts only provides hints of the horrifying dynamics
66  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: June 03, 2024, 02:18:30 PM
Dismissing all sources from reputable news agencies as false opinions only to post about your own visions  Roll Eyes do tell what else do you see in your dreams, so we can completely switch to just shitposts.

Funny how you briefly mentioned R37 It is designed to shoot down tankers, AWACS and other C4ISTAR aircraft[1] while keeping the launch platform out of range of any fighters that might be protecting the target. According to Janes there are two variants, the R-37 and the R-37M; the latter conceived as having a jettisonable rocket booster that increases the range to "300–400 km" (160–220 nm). and make sure to totally ignore the range of S-400 with some missiles going to 400km and don't think about what already happened to most of UA air force planes, and try to evade the fact that Russia can hit any target in UA while planes need active runways to land at. Other than that, your dreams of few old planes being yet another game-changing weapons system which this time will surely tip the balance, makes a good morale booster for unsophisticated reader.

Yet the people who are providing the F-16s and the AWACS know of the R-37 and the s400 (claimed) capabilities. does this tell you anything? do you think they are simply making a mistake? I would encourage you to understand how planes have to fight in an unsafe / contested airspace, what are the requirements for an R-37 to reach the claimed range and why the Meteor does not have that limitation.

In any case, Ukraine form having a few legacy non-updated Mig-29, who were not good enough even two decades ago, is now going to have a proper Airforce, to a size that is enough to cause many many problems for Ruzzia.

It would be quite helpful too to have a load of Iris-T or Sidewinders for the Cruise missiles... it is cheaper than Patriot.

Hmm deja vu, oh right, you mean just like those previous deliveries of Leopards and Abrams that they were pushing for? How did that turn out? But guess at this point anything just to keep morale from a total collapse, so this could be dragged out for a bit longer.

67  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: June 03, 2024, 12:27:41 PM
Jedna lasta ne čini proljeće

It just doesn't work:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8IBwse5sgQ&t=3201s

Western systems are just worthless:

https://x.com/simpatico771/status/1783247000059728064

Worthless Abrams's stuck in mud:

https://odysee.com/@SENIORENSICHT:a/ukraine-blamage-f%C3%BCr-bejubelte:6

Again, you have provided opinion, but no fact, no substance, just narrative. Apart from a tank stuck in the mud (Seriously? A tank stuck? you are not even trying are you?)

I am sure the Ruzzian soldiers in the front could tell a different story. If there were alive after the attacks with all those weapons that "do not work".

I do give credit to the fact that Ruzzia has a good degree of EW, but what I have seen is that it makes it more difficult that's all. One of the obvious problems is that the number of systems is limited.

On the AWACS, I can clearly see how Ukraine is going to develop a proper air force, while quite small, with right defence capabilities. On one side, air defences that are adequate - albeit more would be helpful, then AWACS picking up the Su and Mig that are bombing or being used to launch some missiles and then F16s that will be unlikely to be able to attack freely, but will be there with european Meteor missiles (200 km range) and HARM missiles ready to be shot to anything detected.

I can see a new year in which the air space of Ukraine is going to be full of risks to the Ruzzian "Aerospatial" forces. It is extremely difficult to scape a Meteor - ramjet engine, agile, difficult to pick up...

Dismissing all sources from reputable news agencies as false opinions only to post about your own visions  Roll Eyes do tell what else do you see in your dreams, so we can completely switch to just shitposts.

Funny how you briefly mentioned R37 It is designed to shoot down tankers, AWACS and other C4ISTAR aircraft[1] while keeping the launch platform out of range of any fighters that might be protecting the target. According to Janes there are two variants, the R-37 and the R-37M; the latter conceived as having a jettisonable rocket booster that increases the range to "300–400 km" (160–220 nm). and make sure to totally ignore the range of S-400 with some missiles going to 400km and don't think about what already happened to most of UA air force planes, and try to evade the fact that Russia can hit any target in UA while planes need active runways to land at. Other than that, your dreams of few old planes being yet another game-changing weapons system which this time will surely tip the balance, makes a good morale booster for unsophisticated reader.
68  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 01, 2024, 04:37:27 PM
Including Friday that's 14 consecutive days of inflows. Not just net inflows but net flows that absorb 5x the emission!
Emission since May 13 (14*450=BTC6.300), US ETF net inflows BTC~32k

Something has got to give soon surely.

It doesn’t make any sense that we’re not going up unless big players are relentlessly shorting. The lessened supply is getting eaten up, if we don’t pump soon I’m going to start being suspicious.

already suspicious

Admittedly the date range is chosen to display maximum inflows, we had outflow prior to May 13th. Also, we don't know what's happening to the rest of the market, are Gox/FTX etc... dumping? Someone could also be dumping real corn for these ETF coupons for different reasons (if they don't want/can't self custody, or they want to take out margin loan against their corn etc...). But the beauty of limited supply is that we know it can't go on forever, so with everyday these ETFs suck up more BTC than were mined, the higher the probability of the price adjusting up. tl;dr just wait Cool
69  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 01, 2024, 02:35:35 PM
Just been reading

ETF inflows 13 consecutive days of inflows
Max amounts taken of kraken….

Price will follow



Including Friday that's 14 consecutive days of inflows. Not just net inflows but net flows that absorb 5x the emission!
Emission since May 13 (14*450=BTC6.300), US ETF net inflows BTC~32k
70  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: June 01, 2024, 12:35:48 PM
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/30/politics/biden-ukraine-limited-strikes-russia/index.html

Quote
Biden gives Ukraine permission to carry out limited strikes within Russia using US weapons
[...]
“The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use US supplied-weapons for counterfire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,” one of the officials said.

Nothing secret here.  Cool

My guess is that we are quickly going to find what are those limits. My guess is that the first ones to find out will be the Ruzzia Air and Air defence forces - they are always preparing to hit.

Air defence is one of the highest priority targets in all conflicts and all sides, you're just stating an obvious thing. But it's a change in paradigm, US is trying to redefine what it means to be a party to a conflict, we're setting the precedent that country X can buy soldiers in country Y (by paying their salaries, retirement, healthcare etc...) and then send them their weapons, so soldiers paid by country X can attack country Z with X's weapons without X being a part of the conflict? Another terrible precedent being set onto the world.



[...]

Right, only people on the border with Russia/China should be considered as being able to have a free will, but everyone should ignore those Cubans which totally should not have a right to self-determination

[...]

Cuba is an independent country with their own dictatorial regime since more than 50 years ago. But this is whattabout and unrelated to Ukraine.

"independent country" which is not allowed to join military alliance or place weapons on it's own land. You're attempting to use whattaboutism to justify double standards For my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law. First set precedent then claim whataboutism. Pretty much removing all laws and standards upholding global stability, total mystery why there are so many wars around the world, must be all Putin  Huh



Just so people realize the scale of the issue in case anyone here still thinks that this is just local Ukraine vs. Russia conflict

Nobody does. There are winners in this war, but the Ruzzia people, the Ukrainian people and the EU are not.


Finally! Now if you start thinking of this as one superpower trying to expand it's sphere of influence (through financial means onto another aka financial expansionism), let's think of possible outcomes. Either they're successful and Russia collapses (and after it China) or things go back to status quo of 2013, or as stakes continue to rise "west" might collapse. There's just no free lunch in this world.


The Russian Drone Plant That Could Shape the War in Ukraine
[...]

Shaheds are not intercepted with Patriots nor with expensive missiles - do some research.


Shaheds were and still are intercepted by the expensive missiles. It's obviously preferential to use other less expansive means but expensive missiles are still used as a last line of defense against the few drones that are not defeated by other cheaper means and are going for high value targets.



That's only one new factory.
[...]

Of the many that can be destroyed, of the many Ruzzia claims is producing XYZ thousand of this and that... Wonderwaffen is limitless.


"At the end of April, the factory was ahead of its production schedule, having already supplied 4,500 of the promised Shaheds, according to the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington, D.C.-based defense-focused think tank."
I'm assuming Russia would claim a much higher number. your denial seems to cloud your reading comprehension   Roll Eyes



Nato has just 5% of air defences needed to protect eastern flank
[...]

Ruzzia has less than 0.00001% of the defences they need if they whish to fight NATO. I guess the WSJ is not influenced by Raytheon? Or .. could it be???

...


I just love when you make up numbers without any citations.



Russia’s war against Ukraine has underscored the importance of air defence, as Kyiv begs the west for additional systemsand rockets to protect its cities, troops and energy grid against daily bombing raids.

If one reads the word "begs" instead of "asks" or "requests" one must suspect an intention.


It's indeed interesting choice of words by Financial Times. Could either shows intent or the reality and the gravity of the current situation. Next article by Bloomberg should hint at which one it is.

Ukraine Is Running Short of People
...
Drain on manpower emerging as main concern among businesses
Conscription, exodus shrink work force by more than a quarter

Ukraine’s manpower shortage is beginning to bite.

The same drain on personnel that’s weakened Ukrainian forces staving off Russia’s onslaught on the battlefield is also sapping the productivity of the war-battered nation’s factory floors, construction sites, mines and restaurants.

It’s a conundrum for President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who is desperate to replenish his forces while ensuring that the shortage doesn’t damage an economy he needs to keep afloat.
“We are now in a war of attrition,” Ukrainian Deputy Central Bank Governor Sergiy Nikolaychuk said in an interview in Kyiv. “It is very difficult to choose between butter and guns.”

The problem will only intensify as the Russian invasion drags well into its third year and Kyiv is forced to fill a gap left by millions who have either fled the country, joined the army or fallen in battle. As Ukraine’s military struggles to hold the line against a fresh Russian offensive, its economy — which has lost a quarter of its output since the invasion began — risks being further weakened by the shrinking workforce.

Nikolaychuk said a collapse in economic output compared with 2021 was linked with a contraction of about 27% in the available labor force from pre-war levels.
...
It’s a policy challenge that can’t be fixed with help from allies, who are dispatching ammunition and air-defense equipment. Manpower is a finite issue — one that gives Russia and its vast resources an advantage.
...
Petruk said. Some 15% of Metinvest [which employs almost 60,000 people] workers have been conscripted, she said.
...
Kyiv’s metro system said it’ll soon run fewer trains because migration and conscription caused a “significant deficit” of workers that’s expected to worsen as more employees join the army. Mykolaiv, a southern city near the front line, reduced bus services because of the mobilization of drivers, Mayor Oleksandr Sienkevych told Suspilne, a public broadcaster.
...
Many are also hiring women for jobs once predominantly held by men, such as in mining, bringing in students or hiring foreign staff, including migrants from Turkey, she said.

15% of all 60,000 workers. How many of all of the workers were women, men under 25 over 60, and otherwise ineligible for conscription? Then we can guesstimate what percentage of able-bodied men have already been sent to the front lines and how many still left.

Looks like they're starting to bring in people from Turkey to fill in the population gap, just like in Germany
71  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 31, 2024, 11:23:13 PM
Why do you mix together countries with different politics and ambitions? For instance Belarus doesn't want to be a NATO member, contrary to Georgia and Armenia, but they aren't being asked by NATO to join. It's not NATO that is coming to them, but they're trying to get into NATO. Why is that? What are they so afraid? Maybe they don't want to become a part of the Soviet Union again?

Not true...USA tried to topple Lukashenko in a coup, too. Same as in all former USSR republics, can you
name single one where USA didn't try to "bring democracy" by replacing legal government with
"USA friendly" one? And why would they do that if Russia is not a final goal?

I told you coolcoinz, this people here will not deviate from the narrative. Any opposition to Ruzzia is NATO acting in the background. People are not free, they are "bought by cookies" or "under the CIA direction"... it is simply not in their mindset to think that they may see a different future for their children and may want to fight for it.

does it take money and help to get there? Yes, it may be impossible otherwise, Moscow's tentacles are multiple (fortunately, not infinite).



Right, only people on the border with Russia/China should be considered as being able to have a free will, but everyone should ignore those Cubans which totally should not have a right to self-determination  Undecided we all believe that right  Huh Hypocrisy at it's best? all people are equal but some people are more equal than others & For my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law

Just so people realize the scale of the issue in case anyone here still thinks that this is just local Ukraine vs. Russia conflict

The Russian Drone Plant That Could Shape the War in Ukraine
...
The attack highlighted an important new aspect of the war in Ukraine, military experts say: the speed with which Russia can scale up production of Iranian-designed surveillance and attack drones, drawing on Chinese components, an African workforce and logistics networks that Iran honed during its own yearslong standoff with the West.
...
Their low cost compared with the expensive missiles Ukraine uses means air-defense units have sometimes resorted to machine guns to shoot them down.
...
In 2020, a United Nations report identified the company as a possible source of engines in Shahed drones found in attacks by Yemen’s Houthis and Iran on Saudi oil facilities the previous year. The engine has a rotary configuration, making it more efficient than piston engines and ideally suited to long-range drones. They can cost tens of thousands of dollars when constructed with high-grade materials, but the price can be cut to a few thousand if cheaper materials are used and longevity isn’t an issue, as would be the case in a suicide drone, experts say. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment.
...
The plan is for the Alabuga facility to churn out 6,000 Shahed attack drones a year, in addition to surveillance drones, according to a contract between the plant’s Russian managers and their Iranian partners leaked by the Prana Network and that was independently corroborated by two advisers to the British government. At the end of April, the factory was ahead of its production schedule, having already supplied 4,500 of the promised Shaheds, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based defense-focused think tank.
...
After another Russian drone barrage on April 11, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Ukraine would soon run out of air-defense missiles if the intensity of the Russian strikes continued.
That's only one new factory

Nato has just 5% of air defences needed to protect eastern flank
...
Russia’s war against Ukraine has underscored the importance of air defence, as Kyiv begs the west for additional systems and rockets to protect its cities, troops and energy grid against daily bombing raids.

Now people will act surprised to learn what is easier to build, thousands of drones and sea/land/air cruise missiles as well as ballistics and supersonic missiles, or enough missiles that are able to intercept all those different kinds of missiles and drones.
72  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 30, 2024, 10:29:15 PM
According to my maths IBIT now has more corn than GBTC, 288k vs 287k. Appears that GBTC has removed "The world's largest Bitcoin ETF" claim from their site too.

Edit: see that it's been already covered

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is the fastest to reach 20 Billion$ in asset size, only 137 days. Before that JEPI ETF was the only ETF to reach 20 Billion$ in asset size under 1000 days, JEPI took 985 days to reach that mark.

https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/2024-05-29-ibit-etf-nears-20-billion-asset-size-in-record-time-8755056985154  
https://x.com/RadarHits/status/1796126038864314467

Meh to be fair most of it are transfers from GBTC. Net for all ETFs is what's important
73  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 30, 2024, 07:46:48 PM
I don't take you for anything, I'm just saying that viewing this conflict in isolation, as if this conflict is about a land grab (because Russia needs more land  Huh) while admittedly is very beneficial for propaganda, couldn't be more erroneous.

So, they don't want natural resources, one of the biggest deposits of iron ore and a decent amount of uranium, to name a few. Russia also doesn't want easy access to the Black Sea and the largest power plant in Europe, not to mention the second largest Black Sea port in Odessa. Nobody cares about petty things like that.

Quote
Expanding military alliances that attacks other countries without UN approval,

You know damn well that UN votes are a joke since permanent members can veto any UN resolution and guess who is one of the 5 permanent members Tongue

Quote
The root cause seems to be the brainwashed thinking that status quo should be changed and NATO should spread to Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Taiwan etc...

Why do you mix together countries with different politics and ambitions? For instance Belarus doesn't want to be a NATO member, contrary to Georgia and Armenia, but they aren't being asked by NATO to join. It's not NATO that is coming to them, but they're trying to get into NATO. Why is that? What are they so afraid? Maybe they don't want to become a part of the Soviet Union again?

Nah that is clearly not about natural resources, Russia already had easy access to the Black Sea, and has plethora of electrical power generation. Plus Ukraine was aligned with Russia prior to cookies arriving.

UN is the best thing we could come up with. If we destroy that, we're back to the strongest doing whatever he wants, and with China set to bypass US is that really what you want? Also, I'll gladly listen to your alternatives to UN

Because we've already been through this, the precedent was set and continues to be up kept. It doesn't matter how much Cuba wants to be in military alliance with Russia, or how much beneficial Russia/China can make it for Cuban population, they can make Cuba the most prosperous place on earth, but non of this matters because US just won't allow it. And it's for the better, you don't want super powers buying their way closer to another super power's border, it's called spheres of influence and that's what kept our species from removing ourselves off this planet. But now one power decided to break that delicate balance, and change the status quo by bringing cookies, with expected results from other powers.
74  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 30, 2024, 02:15:46 PM
There are news of strong explosions on the Kerch Bridge between Crimea and "mainland" Ruzzia. For the moment there is no evidence of a successful strike in the area but there are some videos that may be just an active air defence or maybe an strike with a degree of success... or maybe failed. What is clear is that there is intention to strike and the previous weeks strikes may be opening the way for a future Ukrainian success here.

Quote
At the same time, Suspilne Krym quoted a local resident.

Quote: "It is very loud in the city now. We heard six or seven explosions of approximately the same force. The windows in the house were shaking a little bit."

Update: At 02:51, Kryuchkov reported that two ferries were damaged – a car ferry and a railway ferry.

Quote from Kryuchkov: "During the repelling of the enemy attack on the transport infrastructure of Kerch, two ferries – a car and a railway ferry – were damaged by the fragments of downed missiles, and the glazing of the extension buildings was damaged. There were no casualties."


Nah, almost but not yet, too soon. They need to wait for the railway to be completed over the land bridge first, which will make the Kerch Bridge redundant. It's already in the final stages with the train already been spotted on some track That way you might finally get some pictures to post here and gloat about, but once again it'll be too late to make a difference, just as usual. You get to gloat claiming yet another miracle balance shifting attack, while in reality Ukraine will continue to loose more people and land, it'll be a win-win, you should know the process by now.

The aggressor state of russia is preparing to launch a railway branch that should connect the temporarily occupied Donetsk and Mariupol of the Donetsk Region.

This is stated in the Frontelligence Insight report.

According to analysts, russia needs a new railway line in case the Kerch bridge collapses. With the help of such a combination, the occupiers will be able to establish an uninterrupted supply of ammunition and manpower to the south of Ukraine and Crimea.

Some satellite images showed the train moving.
75  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 30, 2024, 11:58:04 AM

That's a big problem, you should always consider direct and indirect consequences of your actions. Geopolitics it a lot more nuanced than cartoonish good/bad guys. Expecting Russia to behave differently with Ukraine than US did with Cuba, is the definition of hypocrisy and double standards, so both must be either bad or good. I consider buying into, either NATO spreads to Ukraine or Russia is bad, ultimatum as being brainwashed. Guess that's exactly the reason why in this case no one wants you to exercise your critical thinking skills and look at this conflict holistically, just concentrate on this specific action in a complete void  Undecided

You take me for a US supporter, which I'm not. The US did a a lot of bad things, especially in Vietnam and Iraq, but it doesn't change the fact that Russia is doing these things as we speak.
I wouldn't compare the stance of NATO to what Russia is doing. It's clearly on a different level.

@coolcoinz - By now you probably figured out you are dealing here with people who are most likely paid or otherwise Kremlin trolls. There arguments are always the same, regardless of the situation (Ukraine is a possession of Ruzzia, the West is evil, if Ruzzia does something bad the West is doing something worse, "we need peace... but with an Ukrainian surrender", "the western weapons do not work", "the western weapons do not make a difference", ...)

Facts are questioned, while alternative (but proof-less) reality is put forward. denial is constant.

It is very predictable. When they call for "brotherhood" they are calling for your surrender and their dominance (they will be the "Big Brother" in all senses. Ukrainians will not have peace, they will be sent to the next conflict fighting for Moscow.

Briefly, it works like this:

@Branko - Russia can do no wrong. If they obviously do, NATO is worse, and everything is "the same". If he saw a picture of Moscow burning he would post one of a fire in a dumpster in Los Angeles to prove the above point.
@daRude - May be two people or more.  (a) Everything is always bad for Ukraine (collecting all the news that support that, while ignoring any oher). If Ukraine has an obviously positive news, then question, doubt, alternative reality,...(b) He wans peace - meaning an Ukrainian surrender, nothing else.
@BA - He is absolutely confused about nearly anything in life or... he works for China.
@be.open - I am not sure if a paid troll, but the user or users are  the victims of watching the Ruzzian TV for many years.

I come here from time to time, usually after a few weeks break from posting in this thread to check if anything has changed. In fact one of my posts is on the very first page of this thread because I feel sympathy for Ukrainians since my parents lived in a country "liberated" by the Soviet Union and I know how people wanted to finally kick these liberators out of their country.

Russians were like neighbor's cows that wander into your field and lay there eating grass and screaming and cursing will not get them to move. You either have to get some dogs to scare them away, or use a whip. They were sitting there for decades drinking vodka, taking natural resources and giving nothing in return until the collapse of the Soviet union and protests of the local population made them run back to Mother Russia.

I'd never wish for any country to become a part of Russia, especially when that process is accompanied by what we saw in Bucha, or earlier in Katyn.

That said, you're really stubborn and dedicated, I give you that. Some Ukrainian officials should send you a medal for years of service.
On the other hand, the attitude presented by some Russians here reminds me of Lavrov. When they see you with a hand in the cookie jar, say it's not your hand. When they see you eating the cookie, say that someone stuffed it into your mouth by force.

I don't take you for anything, I'm just saying that viewing this conflict in isolation, as if this conflict is about a land grab (because Russia needs more land  Huh) while admittedly is very beneficial for propaganda, couldn't be more erroneous. Expanding military alliances that attacks other countries without UN approval, to your competitors borders while proclaiming to want peace, and then acting dumbfound why other countries view it as existential threat is really just trying to take the rest of the world for idiots. If you remember USSR so well, you should realize striking similarities between this and the pinnacle of the previous nuclear conflict where the roles were reversed. US viewing USSR expanding to a country close to it's borders as an existential threat, and prevented it, disregarding all international laws and that third country's rights to self-govern. History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.

The root cause seems to be the brainwashed thinking that status quo should be changed and NATO should spread to Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Taiwan etc... for those countries to be "liberated" and be "protected", should sound very familiar to you. Georgia's government seems to have made a decision regarding use of their people in a proxy war.

Unfortunately with politicians when they corner themselves into a position their only choice becomes to keep doubling down until replaced, as we're observing in Israel.
76  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 29, 2024, 11:57:06 AM
According to my maths IBIT now has more corn than GBTC, 288k vs 287k. Appears that GBTC has removed "The world's largest Bitcoin ETF" claim from their site too.

Edit: see that it's been already covered
77  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 28, 2024, 08:07:37 PM
[...]


Seriously paxmao, you're now happy about attacks on ballistic missile early warning system?  Are things already that bad that you're cheering for a global nuclear annihilation?

I am not happy about anything related to this war. I am point out something that does change the balance. Are you happy about Ruzzia hitting the power stations required to keep the Ukrainians warm in winter?

[...]

Those radars are insignificant for current war, which is another sign that attacks are directed by UK/USA and probably preparation for nuclear assault on Russia
They serve as early warning  against intercontinental ballistic missiles
Now, imagine if attack on such objects get falsely flagged as nuclear attack and Russia responds nuking England, how would you like it?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-strike-russian-nuclear-radar-163845828.html

“Not a wise decision on the part of Ukraine,” said Hans Kristensen, a nuclear arsenal expert at the Federation of American Scientists. “Bombers and military sites in general are different because they’re used to attack Ukraine.”

Thord Are Iversen, a Norwegian military analyst, said striking a part of Russia’s nuclear-warning system was “not a particularly good idea… especially in times of tension.”

“It’s in everyone’s best interest that Russia’s ballistic missile warning system works well,” he said.

1. Everyone seems an expert on how Ukraine should fight. I am sure you can find someone saying the oposite. But saying is saying and does not bring the radars up.
2. I am not sure what types of "experts" are these that do not know that ATCAMS are ballistic missiles, so those radars are relevant to the war clearly. Unfortunately, they are also relevant for other things.

I almost agree with the last sentence though - well, not to everyone's interest. Ukraine does not have nukes, so nothing will be coming from them.

As said, if Ruzzia cannot afford to lose this and other infrastructure they can leave Ukraine and start figuring out how to pay reparations.

Edited to note: The radars destroyed point to the south. I leave to you why did Ukraine hit those and not the northern ones.

All wars are tragedies for people. As far as power grid, world allowed NATO to set the unfortunate precedent on this, thus i believe it'd be appropriate to use NATO justification with slight adjustment for current events

"We realize the inconvenience that may be caused to the Yugoslav Ukrainian people, but it up to Milosevic Zelenskyy to decide how he wants to use his remaining energy resources: on his tanks or on his people," Shea [NATO spokesman] said.

But how does this changes the balance exactly? Pretty sure an attack on the early warning system is one of the justifications to launching a nuclear strike first. Thinking that you can take out Russian nuclear early warning system (with attempted justification to launch few ATACMS at ex Ukrainian controlled territory) is not just gambling with your own population but gambling with the whole world. If some 3rd state (that Russia sends weapons to) took out US's nuclear early warning system, I'm sure we'd all be glowing green now, Russia so far has been showing great constraint in all of this. Ukraine is attempting to force this war on to the rest of the world which should not be allowed to happen.




Everyone understood that you were Eastern European without you explicitly saying it  Grin
That logic is flawed on the surface, but are you seriously not even thinking through to the second step? Even if we don't care about Ukrainian lives/statehood, don't you think that policy of punishing Russia by flooding China with cheap resources will backfire and result in far worse consequences? Or we're just so blinded by "Russia=bad" brainwashing that we don't care about anything else?

I focus on what's close and the way I see it, the conflict is local. It's not the US vs China, but Ukraine vs Russia that we're talking about. What's happening here and now is Russians and Ukrainians killing each other with the help of weapons sent to them by other countries. China is playing it's own game trying to take over Taiwan and I'm of course against that.
It's interesting that you feel like we have to be "brainwashed" to think that Russia is bad. Have you ever considered that Russia might actually be bad, or are you blinded by propaganda coming straight from Kremlin?


That's a big problem, you should always consider direct and indirect consequences of your actions. Geopolitics it a lot more nuanced than cartoonish good/bad guys. Expecting Russia to behave differently with Ukraine than US did with Cuba, is the definition of hypocrisy and double standards, so both must be either bad or good. I consider buying into, either NATO spreads to Ukraine or Russia is bad, ultimatum as being brainwashed. Guess that's exactly the reason why in this case no one wants you to exercise your critical thinking skills and look at this conflict holistically, just concentrate on this specific action in a complete void  Undecided
78  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 28, 2024, 06:53:52 PM


You were arguing that what I post is propaganda. I just wanted to show you what can be classed as such (despite not being necessarily a lie) and how easy is to find it so you may notice the difference. I can see you are starting to get the difference between "war porn", "cheering", "propaganda" and information that is relevant. One more example to see if you can find the seven differences:

This is a very real cost of keeping the war ongoing. In the years before, all the cost and all the infrastructure destruction was on Ukraine. Missiles flying only East to West. Now missiles (& drones) are also flying West to East. This is factual information, with a high degree of credibility and it is of strategic importance for the war:

This is the network of radars that Ruzzia uses to detect incoming ballistic threats. All short of threats (I am going to leave to you to figure out what "detection", "ballistic" and "incoming threats" mean).

Over a single week, Ukraine has damaged two of these (along with a few airframes). These are not just simple anti-air radars. They are building size and they will take a long time to repair or replace.


Why does this matter?

a) direct effect in "strategic blindness".

b) An economic effect in the war calculus: from we hurt Ukraine and it is "free" to, hey they can and will hit in stuff that hurts (that started with the Moscova BTW).

See, this is not propaganda, no tweets, no same thing...




Those radars are insignificant for current war, which is another sign that attacks are directed by UK/USA and probably preparation for nuclear assault on Russia
They serve as early warning  against intercontinental ballistic missiles
Now, imagine if attack on such objects get falsely flagged as nuclear attack and Russia responds nuking England, how would you like it?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-strike-russian-nuclear-radar-163845828.html

“Not a wise decision on the part of Ukraine,” said Hans Kristensen, a nuclear arsenal expert at the Federation of American Scientists. “Bombers and military sites in general are different because they’re used to attack Ukraine.”

Thord Are Iversen, a Norwegian military analyst, said striking a part of Russia’s nuclear-warning system was “not a particularly good idea… especially in times of tension.”

“It’s in everyone’s best interest that Russia’s ballistic missile warning system works well,” he said.

Seriously paxmao, you're now happy about attacks on ballistic missile early warning system?  Are things already that bad that you're cheering for a global nuclear annihilation?
79  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 28, 2024, 10:58:19 AM
You should look at this war as geopolitical game, not through child eyes as fight between good and evil

UK and USA cheer every dead Ukrainian as well as dead Russian...both are gain for them

WW2 was same

Are you really comparing WW2 to this? Sure I'll follow your logic.
Do you know why the West cheered every dead Russian? Because Russians were the aggressors along with Germans, they just happen to have a disagreement somewhere allowing the way.

In WW2 Germans and Russians were like 2 wolves sharing one prey, be it a deer, and one thought he's the stronger one and can have all the meat, so he jumped the other one while it was eating and you're surprised that the other animals came to watch and give themselves high fives while the wolves bled?

I'm an Eastern European and from my perspective the bigger the Russian losses the better. I won't shed a tear for your soldiers. They go to war for money and it's their choice to kill Ukrainians. The more of these murderers and invaders die out there, the less we'll have to deal with when the time comes.

Everyone understood that you were Eastern European without you explicitly saying it  Grin
That logic is flawed on the surface, but are you seriously not even thinking through to the second step? Even if we don't care about Ukrainian lives/statehood, don't you think that policy of punishing Russia by flooding China with cheap resources will backfire and result in far worse consequences? Or we're just so blinded by "Russia=bad" brainwashing that we don't care about anything else?



80  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 26, 2024, 10:47:12 PM
You mean NATO attacked Serbia? What was Serbia doing at that time? Was it not attacking Croatia, Bosnia,... Again, who is the aggressor and who is acting in defence? did NATO attack Serbia before they started a (genocidal) war with the ex-republics and started the ethnical cleanse of Albanians or after?

The point you are making about dragging the war, I have been making it since more than a year ago. It was not a good idea to start the war and the actor that is getting the worst of a prolonged war is Ruzzia (not the only one) because is using up resources that cannot be re-built.

It is time for Putin to consider a peace plan by returning the Ukrainian territory and paying reparations, returning the kidnapped children,...  Unless he does not want out.

But that will not happen. You need to keep boiling the frong until it is no longer a threat to anyone. US strategy will not change at least for a year.

Haha were Croatia, Bosnia part of NATO when NATO decided to attack Yugoslavia, against all international laws and UN charter? Oops. In fact even NATO didn't attempt to justify this as self defense, their claim was that sure it's illegal for each individual country to attack another country, but NATO itself is not a member of UN so as an alliance and under the alliance flag, they're not bound by UN charter and can do whatever, keep trying to confuse uneducated.

Ahh i see, so you still pretending that Ukraine is better off than Russia now. Russia keeps taking more territory while Ukraine keeps loosing more and more of its population, but you continue to spin that as a positive, and rooting for it to go on for much longer? Good job comrade, who's side are you on again  Huh

No they were not part of NATO, but. NATO stopped a war that was ongoing, not started an invasion and thanks for noting that there was an UN mandate involved. Unless you want to re-write history (again)?

I am not pretending anything,  I am just wondering if Ruzzia can keep loosing critical infrastructure, jets that cannot be replaced, oil refineries and other targets. Some of this are expensive, some others are simply the last ones as they cannot be produced again.

It is time for Ruzzia to figure out how the future looks if things become "half". Half the Black sea fleet underwater, half of the air defence systems destroyed, half of their refining capacity gone, half of the generals in prison, half of the positions in factories not covered, half of the business gone and half of the income from foreign assets confiscated.

But if you say that is ok, then it is ok. It takes a while for the frog to boil.

Ahh so NATO can attack anyone in the world as long as they're in a conflict, without any UN security council approval, and that's what makes them a defense alliance  Huh  World police, judge, jury, and the executioner, which majority of the world didn't vote for? While totally ignoring other conflicts like actual war crimes in Gaza? Why those crazy Russian's wouldn't want that on their borders is a total mystery! When Cuba can't even receive advanced medical equipment without it being somehow considered an existential threat to US  Roll Eyes we all believe that right?

It's actually quiet ironic that Ukrainian leaders decided to volunteer their population in order to attempt to push that ideology through, but of course once China showed which side it's on, everyone realized that it's destined to fail.
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