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Dear BitCoinNutJob
We are sorry to hear that you did not profit enough from the bitcoin bull bear forecast.
Please let us know what specifically you have in mind why you did not achieve what you wanted in bitcoin trading.
Dear All
It is normal that not everyone is happy with analyses and forecasts. It also depends on individual trading skills and also money management.
And again the last updates were spot on. Prices turned at exactly the forecasted levels .
We also know that loyal , satisfied subscribers don't usually go to forums like this and "defend" anything.
And this is why we continuously monitor the feedback and our survey from 2 weeks shows that we have 89.6% satisfied subscribers.
We always try to improve and will continue
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Although I haven't got funds @mtgox anymore, I'll supply you with some information in order to support anybody who wants to sue mtgox because I'm very interested in seeing Mark Karpeles at court for his actions. lost quiet a bit during the last days when leaving mtgox. throughout the last week immediately after the first press release of mtgox regarding halted btc withdrawals, you could observe huge rhythmic btc dumps @mtgox every 2-5 minutes following always the same pattern ("the whale of mtgox"). the sum of these dumps up to now is approx 140000 btc at an average price of around us$270. ie a us$38 mio sell-off. there were a few stuck levels eg at us$261.24 yesterday and us$148.15 the day before yesterday. these were manipulated levels by the whale serving all asks above these levels every 2-5 minutes. this is very difficult to do through the api of mtgox. but very easy if you're in charge of the order book itself. Therefore, you'll have to deal with either a very risky investor who is going to sue mtgox as well for his us$38+ mio funds @mtgox pretty soon. if you take into account that most of the trading fees at mtgox were paid in btc throughout the last years (default setting), it is more likely that the whale rushing all the btc on the market is mtgox resp Mark Karpeles himself. This would be an easy way to transfer the customers fiat collected throughout the last years to his own account reducing his liability in € and us$. if you further take into account, that maybe a good portion of btc stored at mtgox got stolen, mtgox might blame the bitcoin protocol ("transaction malleability") as a cause for the loss. the result: Mark Karpeles got the customers fiat, the customers got stolen btc. the customers could file a charge against an unknown person for stealing their btc. what does this mean? --> all data on the servers of mtgox must be assured immediately in order to investigate the fraud. ressources: http://bitcoincharts.com/http://bitcoinwisdom.com/http://coinsight.org/mtgox.htmlExactely my observations and thoughts. I posted the following on reddit: I posted the following post four days ago. Unfortunately the post was downvoted (I guess by people who wanted to weaken posts that may foster sells at the Mt Gox market). Taking into account the new price level, there is - IMHO -now some real need for the truth, so that I want to post my post again and add something to this afterwards. 16 Feb 2014: "I observed the Mt Gox live market for hours yesterday and I have seen that the price decline is caused just by one trader who is kind of always selling off large amount of coins after price is just slightly increasing. Yesterday there was a phase in which somebody sold approx. 250 BTC every few minutes for hours. The same started this morning again. You have seen and you can see that indeed everybody on the market is willing to pay more, but the high sells of this one trader are causing the low price around 330 to 360$ yesterday and below 300$ today. If you have been aware of this, you could made a lot of (book value) profit from it. (...) [What is the reason, why one trader is selling automatically so many coins?] My theory is: MtGox themselves are doing this. They want to drop the price so low, because they want that after it becomes obvious that they are not having the coins, they hope that people will panic sell their book value coins and that they have little money to give then, because of the little fiat balances then." Another thing that happend at this time was the following: I started to make short trades, so I sold my coins and placed a new order afterwards. Normally I placed every new buy order in front of a big buy order. But then I placed by mistake one "at the top of an existing other big buy order". A new sell was coming in (one of the big ones as aforementioned). The weird thing was, that all coins have been bought from the buy order "under" mine up to exactely my Satoshi (I hope you all get what I mean, I am not a native speaker). This was not coincidence, the numbers have been completely random. For me, this is one more argument that Mt Gox (with market transparency) made these big sells. The plan of Mt Gox could be the following. (They can do this, even if they do not have the coins.) 1. Sell so many coins, that the market is completely crashed and that there is no more Fiat money in the system, that can make buys. 2. Wait until people get used to the new price level at Gox. Avoid people putting too much new fiat money into the system, by fostering speculations about insolvency. 3. At some point there are enough coins to buy to make a big profit. And of course both is possible, Mt Gox may have lost some coins by theft and are doing this strategy to get equal balances again, or they are just megalomaniac and want to own a bigger piece of the bitcoin cake. If only a tiny part if this is true, MtGox should be raided by the police immediately and shut down |
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Gibts eigentlich irgend ene vornehmen "wir stützen der Gox-Kurs"-Aktion? Das Orderbuch ist nach unten ja gut gefüllt um dem Dumper-Bot (wenn er dann mal läuft) ordentlich die Stirn zu bieten. Trotzdem wagt keiner den eigentlich recht kostengünstigen Ausbruch nach oben  Die Charttechnik dominiert... es bring leider wenig auf Ausbrüche zu hoffen, oder zu glauben dass einzelne Markteilnehmer den Kurs massgeblich in eine Richtung bringen können. Bitcoin ist mittlerweile zu gross dazu und einzig und allein die Massenpsychologie bestimmt den Kurs. |
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Let's make it clear - nobody has no bloody idea where the heck it is heading right now, lol
Nothing that special , most of the times we are clueless about where the hell bitcoin is heading and why. Just enjoy the spooky ride  )) There is technical analysis creating bitcoin forecasts that work well |
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It's still a wild west situation with bitcoins..:
here another example:
MtGox still claims on the main home page that they are the world's largest exchange. Normally, competitors would be challenging this within days after this is not true any more.. but they dont even bother..
wild west, indeed.
"Trade with confidence on the world's largest Bitcoin exchange!
MtGox is the world's most established Bitcoin exchange. You can quickly and securely trade bitcoins with other people around the world with your local currency!"
they could also add... "Anything that goes wrong with your money on our exchange, it's not our fault, feel free to find problems and we can easily and casually blame it on something else. Our accounting is 100% secure and tested, we tackle issues before they become issues." that would surely help ? love it |
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It's still a wild west situation with bitcoins..:
here another example:
MtGox still claims on the main home page that they are the world's largest exchange. Normally, competitors would be challenging this within days after this is not true any more.. but they dont even bother..
wild west, indeed.
"Trade with confidence on the world's largest Bitcoin exchange!
MtGox is the world's most established Bitcoin exchange. You can quickly and securely trade bitcoins with other people around the world with your local currency!"
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New short term update just sent to subscribers, also including more details about our MtGox decision.
??. but I didnt receive any. are an active subscriber? yes, the last I received is "Weekly Report (2/12/2014)" did I miss any?
Please check your spam folder in case you dont have it in your normal inbox, depending on your spam settings.
But it is all correct on our end. Vphen just confirmed it to me |
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New short term update just sent to subscribers, also including more details about our MtGox decision.
??. but I didnt receive any. are an active subscriber? yes, the last I received is "Weekly Report (2/12/2014)" did I miss any? send me a PM with your email address you used to subscribe and we can check |
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New short term update just sent to subscribers, also including more details about our MtGox decision.
??. but I didnt receive any. are you an active subscriber? |
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New short term update just sent to subscribers, also including more details about our MtGox decision.
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Now even 615 $ .. falling further.. very nice
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Can I ask you a question, please?
For how long have you been trading any financial market regularly?
As said, we have a 90%+ satisfaction rate from our subscribers, over already 3 years. And bitcoinbullbear.com has been outperforming the buy and hold strategy massively throughout this time.
I do not want to put you on the spot too much, but can it be that you are not so experienced in trading and money management? Let us know if you need some help on that. We did that before with subscribers and they were very happy about it.
And finally, here is yet another example of the accuracy of our forecast from yesterday:
Lead forecast:
1. "Short term trend: DOWN"
2. "Very short term trend DOWN"
3. "Put all of this together and we continue to think the market could press lower to test the 550 to 620 $ range" This was when BTCUSD was at 652.85 $. As of this minute, BTCUSD is at 621 $. This means, you could have made 31 $ per bitcoins sold or shorted. Not bad for 24 hours...
It can be that simple
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As mentioned before, there are many types of different investors and traders.
Our most recent subscriber survey tells us that 90% of subscribers are satisfied with our current service.
There will always be a few individuals who want something else.
That said, we are very happy about your feedback and will continue to improve and innovate.
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Also, a new weekly bitcoin forecast has just been issued to subscribers.
Trial subscriptions for 20% discount are still available here: http://bitcoinbullbear.com/
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The poll is reset for your voting again.
Up?
Down?
Same?
for the next 4 weeks
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Team - you are right: There are times when it is warranted to provide tighter trading ideas and ranges, and there are times when it is best to protect people from getting caught in random bitcoin price swings.
That said, for example, the latest report from February 5 was again dead on with a forecast for bitcoin price declines: "there appears to be little support to the downside.. 60/40 probability down". This was when BTCUSD was at 835$ at MtGox, and now it is at 674$.
There are always some people who complain about things, but the overwhelmingly positive feedback from 90+% of our subscribers tell us that we are on track.
That said, we will soon offer new feedback and service opportunities for subscribers - as we always strive to innovate and improve services.
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Seems that bitcoin has found a stable price level. I believe it will continue for some time. That could be a good thing for businesses using bitcoin.
Indeed, and due to this it might seem that sevices like this one are irrelevant / not accurate. Their reports seem accurate & extensive; but if the market is not moving / stable (which might actually be a good thing) there are also no trading opportunities.
It is best to think about it in the metaphor of waves:
There are certain times where there is no wind and there only tiny waves. This makes trading largely unprofitable due to the spread and slippage and false signals.
And there are a lot of periods with strong moves where trading can be a stormy paradise.
Good analysis and forecasts follow this principle: Stay neutral in the no-wind times and give clear directions in stormy times.
And: The stable period will soon be over, and subscribers of www.digitalcurrencyresearch.com will be the first to know when we think it's going to happen, and in which direction. |
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The track record of third parties holding other people's bitcoins is pretty appaling making trading quite risky business. Edit: my point is that trading most likely requires you to have funds on exchanges which require you to trust them and to paraphrase a shared sentiment I believe we need more professional exchanges. Recently having read this for example https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=406908.msg4430052#msg4430052It's not very encouraging and should be taken into account when deciding to trade. Otherwise, this Price forecast service is probably one of the few long lasting bitcoin businesses out there which has lived up to their promise and delivered timely alerts for many years now in the most volatile financial product I know of. And that deserves being emphasized. |
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But nevertheless, some shifting from gold into BTC could boost the price.
This has most likely already happened to some extent. A lot of the goldbugs "woke up" to Bitcoin last year. Not sure how many of them actually had the balls to put in so much that it required them to sell metal, though, but it's quite possible it was a few of them considering the metal markets hadn't been as much fun as they used to. Selling some gold to buy Bitcoin... *raises his hand* I have the feeling that Bitcoin is NOW, while it may take a bit more time for gold and silver. The main reason for that is the heavy manipulation of the PMs, which is (hopefully) not the case for BTC, and of course the small market saturation/market cap of BTC is just an enormous opportunity. The PMs time will come big time once the manipulation can no longer be held up. JPM is the biggest culprit and alreadt getting sued left and right they are getting out of pms last I heard.. ofcourse after the damage is already done. I suspect both gold and btc to rise together to some extent after stock market peaks. |
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