This Shitcoin Cash experiment teaches that Bitcoin should have a difficulty adjustment enhacement. It might prove usefull in the future.
It might be dangerous, too. It would make it quicker, then easier to orchestrate a 51% attack by swinging the difficulty wildly, progressively retiring miners from BTC and then coming back on full force at attack time. This could be prepared and deployed when the hashrate is dropping for other reasons (some other problem on the BTC network). |
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The controlled max supply claim to fame is now obliterated. There are more than 21,000,000 tokens.
The whole premise of Bitcoin is being undermined and people are A-Okay with it, fools that they are.
The premise is max 21M tokens per chain (per coin). This is a new chain, or a new coin if you like. No violation. Value doesn't spread out magically from one chain to the next. When half of BTC holders will have exchanged their BTC for BCH, then it will be a 50/50 split. Until then, you need fresh money to add value to the new chain. I think this is quite intuitive from a macroscopic, detached point of view. |
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If we get enough miners involved we can do a Bitcoin Wall Observer (BWO) fork next month.
If we do, we should at least call it bitcoin clone. Cause that's what it is. BWOC? WOBC? An honest name is a good start. It would be good 4 letter stuff, honestly. |
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Bet CLOSED! Let the game begins... Thank you all for supporting this game and I wish you all good luck. Let's make contact when ATH touched. Final list: ... 31/07 Infofront  01/08 Vin 02/08 Steelboy 03/08 D_eddie 04/08 Bitserve 05/08 Bikerleszno 06/08 Last of the v8s ... My mental movie is unfolding neatly. I think Bitserve or Bikerleszno are in for the prize. Possibly myself if things get hurried up!  |
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Ok let's get to the point here......is bitcoin going to drop below 2000 tomorrow or can I get on with my work without checking the ticker app on my phone every 5 seconds after 1pm GMT.
Who am I to make predictions? Well, I'll give it a shot anyway. Happen what may, as long as someone's just holding, why would they care? My bet is little will happen because of the BCH fork. Should anything actually happen, it will be a temporary disruption. BTC will probably move along just fine - some disruption happens twice a year on average. |
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(snip)
Wouldn't it be 12:20 PM UTC?
That's the time of the BCC hardfork if I'm not mistaken Oops, that's the hardfork indeed. I mixed up. |
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Cool. Thanks  Wouldn't it be 12:20 PM UTC? |
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Bitcoin, like any so-called crypto currency, is the old like world scheme of Ponzi. Only in the new high-tech pack.
Want an example? You are welcome:
1. Assume that all people in the world convert half of their savings from ordinary national currencies to crypto-currencies. What does it mean? This means that the producers of crypto-currency, received half of the world's volume of national currencies - half of the total world currency bascet.
Right, the producers. You go to the factory and buy freshly produced bitcoins. The used ones are worth much less (around 50%, depending on how used up they are). 2. After a while, the fictitious value of investments in crypto-currencies increased 4-fold (as we see in the case of Bitcoin and the mass of other crypto-currencies). What does it mean? This means that now, every person in the world, reasonably expects to receive in exchange for his crypto currency (as a return on his genius) in 4 times more volume of the national currency.
3. Let's assume that all these people, at the same time, decide to fixed their investment profit-to exchange their crypto-currencies that went up four times, (if they take profit in the form ordinary national currencies).
All of them expect to receive now 4 times more national currency than they used to, they spent on buying crypto-currencies.
QUESTION: Where does this whole currency come from? From producers or producers of crypto-currency? But they simply do not have such volumes of ordinary currency, and never were. Because, previously selling the Crypto currency, in exchange for the usual currency, the organizers and the receivers only received the initial value of the crypto currency in the usual currency. Which was at the time of the transaction only - 1/4 of the amount of currency, which is now payable to all owners of the crypto currency.
The national currency comes from national producers. It's a different factory. You go to this national factory if you want national currency. CONCLUSION: Bitcoin, like any so-called crypto currency, is the old world scheme of Ponzi. Where each participant can receive a gain of the investments only one way - due to those new participants who have entered this pyramid later.   Actually, it's only that those who get to the bitcoin factory first, get to choose the best pieces. Later customers are treated worse by the producers at the bitcoin factory - they get the irregularly minted, lopsided, defective coins. However, this problem will be fixed: BIP200 already promises to deal with quality control at the factory, so no need to worry. /s TL;DR It's the holders, not the producers. Early adopters do have an advantage. If float (measured in USD) gets 4x, by definition it means that every holder will get 4x fiat when bartering btc against USD. Hm, as long as all holders don't want to barter on the same day: the producers of USD need a little extra time to print more if necessary. |
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I don't think I'm winning micro's ATH game.
I told you... 4 AUG. There's no way the ATH is broken before 1 AUG has passed away. Also we needed some little correction after the recent surge from the lows of $1900-. After Aug 1st, right. But they will hurry up to Aug 3rd  |
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Relax guys, even ViaBTC is now saying that they intend to adhere to the Segwit2x agreement: https://www.bitcoin.com/public-service-announcementAs suspected, it was just a game theory move (a ridiculous one though) to exercise some pressure to "guarantee" the second part of the agreement (2x blocksize). I don't even think the drop has been due to this... it's just a minor correction before propeling to new highs early August. Are you kidding? They propped this BCC altcoin up for one purpose. As the 2X date approaches, they are going to have loads of fun switching their hashrate back and forth from Bitcoin to BCC blockchain, in an attempt to strong arm the core developers/community and FUD the shit out of the market and cause massive amounts of hysteria, fear and price volatility. Mark my words. Roger and Jihan will be cackling with glee the whole time. Not kidding, yet you are probabilistically right. That's why I am NOW (after Segwit passed with flying colors) in favor of the FIXED 2MB blocksize increase. It won't do any harm if done right and it will remove any standing argument for their FUD attempts. Win-Win. Reasonable thoughts, but I am wary of any on-chain scaling solution that makes it harder to run a full node. My position is: with segwit working, comes the Lightning Network. With the LN, many more people will want to run a full node, if only to have a LN node up. LN routes on Tor, so the more we are, the merrier. Besides, several small channels can help decentralize the LN, should any bank or similar wish to stake serious collateral to open lots of channels. Additionally, on the LN there's a chance to collect small fees: for channel operation (they will probably be low or zero, at least at the beginning), or for LN watching, ready to issue a penalty transaction if someone tries to cheat. Stifling growth of the number of nodes at this stage seems unwise to me. |
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ANALYSIS: WHY AUGUST 3rd?
(micgoossens's prediction game)
(SNIP)
TL;DR.
Fear of Aug 1st dissipates slowly while the wounded lick their wounds. New week, new life starting on Friday Thursday.
Sounds Good Let see to 3th of August Glad you like it  |
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As opposed to the other useful idiots who hype blockchains where every transaction is traced and monitored - the ultimate Orwellian police state dream - while also helping in the banker's goal to eradicate cash from society so they can then control the remaining digital infrastructure and turn everyone into a slave instead of people just using gold and silver to defeat them? Did you mean those other useful idiots?
Have no idea what you're babbling about brother ... bitcoin's a level playing field A level playing field if you first purchase an ASIC from Jihan Wu, which allows Jihan Wu to build 10 ASIC of his own for each ASIC you buy from him? This is fake news.  Amidst tons of doubtful bearsh*t, here's a grain of truth from our c*ckroach. I wouldn't use the phrase "fake news" for that anyway, since it's not news but fact/opinion. |
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It means a few different options: 1) The bankers talk about how they introduce volatility into the metals market to try and scare the general public out of them, so it might just be wild pump and dump city for craptocurrency 2) The R3 bankers own most of the Ethereum scamtokens and likely a lesser amount of bitcoin, so they might try to weaken bitcoin while pumping the Eth scam 3) They might just naked short everything into the ground like they do in metals to try and keep people in the dollar 4) If there's a danger of a run on the Comex from too much fractional reserve, they might try to pump craptocurrency in order to try and trick people from buying gold and silver and redirect them back into digital scam markets instead In other words, it's generally bad from every angle for everyone on the planet to give govt the power to control markets. Delete #3 to begin with. No naked shorts. The CFTC said in a statement Monday LedgerX will be authorized to provide clearing services for fully-collateralized digital currency swaps.
(My emphasis.) |
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ANALYSIS: WHY AUGUST 3rd?
(micgoossens's prediction game)
Preliminaries. (Remarks, confessions.)
Any attempts at analysis for dates so far in the future can't be based on TA in the sense of shoulders, cups and double inverted Batmans. Even if it were a full Cow-and-Shepherd (one of the longest TA patterns), it wouldn't start before July 31st. We know the thing with crypto timings: a stock market's week is worth around a crypto halfday. So the analysis must be based on purely qualitative reasoning, no graphs or stuff.
Honestly, I would have preferred to choose Aug 4th: the time frame I am picturing in my mind is one day longer than what I bet on. Well, I'll work with what I have.
The Analysis.
August 1st will be inconsequential. Y2K, if you see what I mean. However, a few weak hands could and probably will be shaken. What this means is that later, as the price starts to run up - gingerly at first - those who panic sold or missed out the discounts will queue up for more - at a, ehm, slightly higher price of course. I'm not sure about the timing after August 1st, but I liked the 4th because it's Friday. Saturday and Sunday is bull-uga party (dolphins are whales too, as we all know). However, Aug 4th was taken, so I had to settle on the 3rd. I guess the cetacea will have to drink their champagne before the weekend breaks. The timing wasn't that crystal clear in my mind anyway.
TL;DR.
Fear of Aug 1st dissipates slowly while the wounded lick their wounds. New week, new life starting on Friday Thursday.
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I'm not sure why changing the POW algo to an Asic resistant GPU friendly algo would really stop a centralization trend. GPUs use electricity, correct? Part of the problem with the "Chinese mining cartel" is that they can get cheaper electricity. Correct? What's to prevent them from just establishing huge GPU mining farms and shutting out the little guys again? Not to mention that the bigger guys will be able to get a deal on the GPUS since they would be able to buy in huge bulk.
I gather you've been (are still?) a miner, so your opinion has weight for me. Please help me understand. The cheap (subsidized) electricity argument... yeah, that is probably a show-stopper However, wouldn't an assortment of algos make life harder to monopolists/producer firms by forcing some kind of specialization? Besides, they might have GPU farms (I believe they do), but in that case they would still be competing with homespun rigs set up by people who fire their computers anyway, mining or no mining. At the moment, given the monopolist market, few independent actors have modern mining equipments able to compete. Do you think the number and power of "independent" GPU's is too small to be significant? |
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Malicious mining cartel isn't good for anybody. We need Luke to threaten another POW change. That always helps.
It is my opinion that a PoW change should be devised, engineered, tested and put in the code ready to activate. Activation should not involve any kind of miner support, of course. It should on the contrary assume miners will fight back. The new PoW should have suitable tweakable parameters. Certain choices for parameter values would basically leave the PoW as it is, and other choices would be more disruptive. There should be signaling to get a feel for the available hashpower with different PoW's/parameter choices. If the machinery works well enough, this could become the weapon that will never have to be used. A POW change needs to be kept secret until released, this prevents pre-prepared attacks from malicious miners, and an ASIC head start. Not necessarily. The parameters might be coefficients in a linear combination of probability/frequency distribution for several algos. Good luck designing an ASIC that can do all of them. Besides, a RAM-hungry algo makes ASICs economically nonviable. It could be one of the several algos, just to enforce mining by non-specialized hardware with a specified frequency. By the way, wouldn't a sudden unannounced PoW change freeze BTC for days? LukeJr has already completed a POW change, where the hashing algorithm can be changed at the last minute. But POW change has got to be a last resort, it opens the network up to all kinds of abuse, many of the enemies have very deep pockets.
It seems to me that the mere threat of a PoW change ready to trigger might be as effective, without being so disruptive - as long as it's only crouching. I guess it would drive an ASIC designer nuts to assess the production and stocking of several board types which would possibly lie unsold until forever. |
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Malicious mining cartel isn't good for anybody. We need Luke to threaten another POW change. That always helps.
It is my opinion that a PoW change should be devised, engineered, tested and put in the code ready to activate. Activation should not involve any kind of miner support, of course. It should on the contrary assume miners will fight back. The new PoW should have suitable tweakable parameters. Certain choices for parameter values would basically leave the PoW as it is, and other choices would be more disruptive. There should be signaling to get a feel for the available hashpower with different PoW's/parameter choices. If the machinery works well enough, this could become the weapon that will never have to be used. |
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The fact that the ESF has not yet attempted to destroy bitcoin means one of two [three] things: 1) either bitcoin is a govt sanctioned scam, or 2) they just haven't gotten around to destroying it yet:
;or 3) Nobody will accept a naked short bitcoin, as it not only is a naked short, but it is no easier to obtain, hold, and secure than a real Bitcoin. Paper gold, OTOH, is much easier to obtain, hold, and secure than real gold - which is why (some foolish) people accept it. Due to the technical nature of bitcoin and the fact that most people don't even know how to work a VCR, it's a given the vast majority of the population will be using "bitcoin banks" like Coinbase or other entities and not taking delivery of their coins. It will be even easier to short bitcoin into the ground than metals. Vast majority? I disagree. It's not like you need a vault to store your bitcoins. You understand they have no volume or weight, do you? Like I said, you don't even need naked shorts. All you need to do is short the price below cost of production Without naked shorts and without buying a lot of btc? Could you ELI5 how for me please? A few details wouldn't hurt. and force miners to turn off, which in turn further reduces the synthetic price floor through a feedback loop since cost of production is recursive based on it's own demand. Right: cost of production depends on difficulty, which depends on mining power (cost of production), which ultimately can be traced back to demand. So some miners will shut down. We could be back to GPUs, and the network could become less secure. That is, assuming the price can be driven down without raising a massive spike before (again: ELI5 how, please). Would this make the bitcoin network easier to take over? Sure. Would it make such an attempt practical? I doubt it. A takeover attempt would still require substantial hashpower (uneconomical with a significantly depreciated bitcoin). If a well-engineered change of PoW is enacted, such an attempt can be made even harder. |
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So does all of Jihan's/Antpool's hash power go BitcoinCash after Aug 1st?
Jihan's words about this were noncommittal, along the lines of "we will use some of our hash power on our new coin..." If the parasites (Jihan, Ver, ViaBTC) all move their hash away from bitcoin... I hate to admit it but that makes BTC less secure overall but it's also nice to get rid of these clowns.
I don't think we'll get rid of them anytime soon. What's stopping Jihan, ViaBTC, and Ver to market dump their thousands of BTC after Aug 1 to plummet the price and freeze sales of BCC to artificially pump the price... making it appear as if BCC is the winning chain.
Greed. It would cost them an arm and a leg. |
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If everyone pulls their coins off the exchanges Aug 1st, I wonder if it will reveal that some of the exchanges are running a fractional reserve, because of reported or unreported hacks.
I was thinking of the same. Perhaps people are already pulling their coins off exchanges, and that's why the market float is getting thinner. This. Volumes nearly halved since yesterday and the day before. It can't be just a weekend thing can it? |
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