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Is China leading this move? Huobi is at 411.39 and Bitstamp at 425.
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The charts were made by simulating 50k paths on the log returns based on the historical distribution of log returns. The shaded areas represent percentiles (dark blue for 25-75 and light blue for 10-90), the lines represent the mean and the median.
Very interesting. I suppose that when you say the historical distribution of log returns, you mean without regard to phase of the bubble cycle. Right? If that is what you did, then perhaps by analyzing each of the previous bubbles you could obtain 10 deciles by partitioning each bubble. Then you could run ten times your existing simulation on each of the 10 decile's distribution. My own projection of future bitcoin price possibilities heavily depends upon guessing where we are in the bubble cycle. Because I think we are near a bottom, I expect much higher prices this summer as a result. I can think of a complication or two fitting the deciles, so if that is something that you have no interest in doing, then I have the data to perform a stochastic monte carlo simulation myself. |
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Not trying to flame gweedo but what would we gain from using PGP over say self signed SSL cert? SSL doesn't need to mean that CA are used.
Well first SSL cert are one-way. You only validate them for the company you are connecting to. With PGP we could validate two way, that the company is talking to the right user and user could be talking to the right company. Also PKI are expensive so we can't really have any community involvement this yet. Where is we used a key server that was decentralized like using a DHT, we can then not have to worry about hacks on CA's or it being expensive to start your own. We also could use each full node be a key server and then you query everyone of them for the public key for the company you want to validate from. With majority rule on what is the correct public key. I use client side certificates in my peer to peer research. I set up my own X.509 certificate server that creates certificates for one-time download to the client. I like SSL/TLS, but use it what I believe is a more secure fashion than just having a certificate on the server. Futhermore, SSL/TLS allows negotiation of the encryption protocol, which can be quite strong. |
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I supposed I'm going to be slandered when I add my 23 gridseeds at .005 per day with a 10% rehire bonus. Might have to rethink that plan.
This is concrete evidence that Scrypt-ASICs will soon force GPU miners over to Scrypt-N, X11, or some other ASIC-resistant algorithm. Imagine how low miaviator could price his ASIC rigs and still cover his power cost. |
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Bitcoin is never a buy. Whoever wanted bitcoin, has it. Speculators now think 450 is expensive. They say today 350 is cheap. But at 350 they'll wait for 200.
Nobody cares about BTC, but about fiat. And even the long term bulls want more BTC because they have more leverage in terms of fiat.
But every now and then we get MyBitcoin and MtGox incidents that level off things. So, don't worry, even if you profit today by buying low, you have all the chances of the exchange being hacked, run off, your wallet stolen somehow etc.
Wobber, what happened in the four years that you have been a member of this forum that made you so bitter? According to your posting history, in 2010 you were in a position to buy 50 thousand bitcoin - and if in fact you did so and held on to them until today, the coins would be worth a total of 22 million USD !Hi. I want to buy more than 50.000 BTC but at the lowest price.
I'd like to buy them in a bulk, but if you can offer a good prices for bulks of 10.000, 5000 or even 1000 I will consider buying.
I am waiting for the best offer. Thank you and Merry Xmas!
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Out in the real world many people think "Bitcoin went bankrupt."
MtGox did more damage to BTC than all the alt coins combined.
This is so true. Gox killed the big bubble back in 2011. Gox had DDoS issues in the collapse of the April 2013 bubble, and then went insolvent in the collapse of the November 2013 bubble. Now that Gox is gone, there will be other factors to explain future bubble collapses. |
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djeZo, thanks for creating LeaseRig - where I am a provider approaching 1000 hours leased.
Please convince me how it would be better for me to follow you over to NiceHash.
In particular, my tactic on LeaseRig is to be continuously leased. I set a price at or just above the best offer and only allow 72 hour rentals. If no one rents my rig in 30 minutes or so, then I take the highest offer for 72 hours.
This tactic works, because the best offer has always been better than what I could otherwise obtain at Wafflepool, TradeMyBit, or Clevermining, which have been my back up pools.
Another issue is the mining algorithm. I have 3 GPU rigs, and for well known reasons best argued elsewhere, I will not buy ASIC rigs. Therefore I will be compelled to migrate to Script-N or some other ASIC-resistant mining algorithm. There are no Scrypt-N offers posted at LeaseRig yet, but there is sufficient activity on Betarigs for Script-N that I believe the Scrypt-N coin universe is growing - led by Vertcoin.
Comments?
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. . . I see queues on the Bitcoin ATM's soon, in the middle of a next bubble. Somehow I just know I'm right about this.
I believe that you are right about queues at the Bitcoin ATM. We have three in Austin and when I make my almost daily purchase of some fractional coin - there is no one else there. Initial enrollment the Robocoin ATM system took me 5 minutes, and that process will create the queues for new users who have no idea how to use one. Routine purchases I have timed and they take 70-90 seconds - which includes stuffing in a few bills. By time I arrive back home, the coin has been confirmed into my hot wallet. |
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And one question to us, providers, Why we are going so much down with the price  Keep it above 0.006 or 0.0065. People will rent it anyway  Well, we providers are not a cartel taking turns with renters. My tactic is to keep three rigs continuously rented and build a long term relationship with my renter, who does all the work of finding coins to mine. I know that I will have to migrate my GPU rigs over to Scrypt-N because of Scrypt-ASICs now and coming. I await the presence of offers, i.e. bids, on the Scrypt-N side. |
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Hopefully $10k is many years away. I say this as I'm interested in the long term health and viability of bitcoin. If we continue to act like thousands of percent of growth in a year is normal we just look like massive pump and dump merchants looking for a sucker.
If bitcoin continues to appreciate in value like mad, why would you, or anyone else, ever spend one? As soon as you get your hands on a bitcoin you're going to hold on to it for dear life as it's going to buy ten times more goods in a year's time. This is not normal or healthy.
Your point about pump and dump is correct - yet there is not much that we can do about it. If the Bitcoin Economy follows the classical S-Curve model of technology adoption, the sort of exponential grow we have seen in the past four years will continue at the same sort of exponential growth until the half-way point of adoption. After that point, exponential growth will rapidly decline. But how many more years will it take to reach the halfway point of adoption? I believe that we are three or four years away at least. There is plenty of time left for more bitcoin price bubbles. |
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ok did you guys forget bitcoin was suppose to be a currency not an investment, stop treating it like that and think of it as a way to pay for things.
I am new around here. That the general consensus of bitcoin being an investment first, and currency a distant second, is something that has really surprised, shocked me. It seems as if bitcoin used as a currency is a very minor part of bitcoin. Well, one of the novel features of the Bitcoin Economy is that it is a deflating store of value. Everyone here knows that a maximum of 21 million bitcoins will ever be mined. That changes how one goes about spending bitcoin. Should I replace my old car now with a new car for 60 bitcoins, or should a postpone the purchase two years and buy the same sort of new car for 0.6 bitcoins? Easy decision - to postpone the purchase and become a bitcoin hoarder in the meantime. Deflation in the Bitcoin Economy is virtuous in that it encourages spending on what one really, really needs. No easy credit is available in the Bitcoin Economy. Why should someone loan me bitcoin for any long term, knowing that it is difficult to pay back the same amount of coin. As many have pointed out, and what I do myself as a bitcoin investor, is to spend coin daily on essentials and replenish those working funds from fiat - leaving my bitcoin hoard alone except for periodic sales at bubble peaks. A Metcalfe Law relationship has been discovered that links the quantity of bitcoin transactions with the bitcoin price. Therefore, it is advantageous for a bitcoin hoarder to create meaningful spending and receipt transactions that move the Bitcoin Economy forward. Bitcoin is both an efficient means of payment, and a deflating store of value. |
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Risto, and others offering an opinion:
I am confident that I can execute a spread of sell orders near the next bubble peak. My tactic is to judge the duration of the price doubling time, and if in my estimation the price is on track to double within the next week then that is a good time to sell. We may get a sort of double peak as in November 2013, and I would sell early accordingly. The buy back, again a spread, would take place some months later, or if there is a 50% retracement from my average sell order. Comments on this tactic would be welcome.
Mainly I am interested in (1) what percentage of my holdings should be traded? (2) I do not trust Coinbase to execute the sale in a timely manner, so I am opening an account at Bitstamp - which I have plenty of time to completely verify. Would it be good practice to leave fiat at Bitstamp between the sell and buy-back? Otherwise I would open a new temporary US banking account to receive the large international wire transfer from Bitstamp. I am afraid that my bank would close my existing personal account upon receiving such a transfer.
I am asking this forum for tactical advice because I do not trust myself in the mania phase of the bubble, and would risk too much. I can afford to lose everything, yet at $5000 or more per bitcoin expected at the next bubble peak - everything in my case would be a large sum.
- The final ascent is indeed 100%/week as you can determine from the previous bubbles. - I sold early in Nov-13 because I judged the final ascent from China prices that had diverged then - Buyback better judged from exponential trendline. My personal calculation from Dec-13 was that I would be able to buy at 410 before the end of Mar-14. I panic bought a portion way too early. Forum pressure was immense. - I think 1/3 is the prudent trading amount, perhaps 40% if you include SSS permanently sold coins - Bitstamp has worked well for me because they know me from the forum and I am open to all KYC, essentially a public person - They also sent 7-figure amount and my bank did not close the acct, only asked AML - Keeping fiat/BTC in any exchange for 3 months is risky, I would repatriate some instantly and then wire back when needed, but this depends on many things. I will examine the fiat withdrawal limits at Bitstamp. |
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Risto, and others offering an opinion:
I am confident that I can execute a spread of sell orders near the next bubble peak. My tactic is to judge the duration of the price doubling time, and if in my estimation the price is on track to double within the next week then that is a good time to sell. We may get a sort of double peak as in November 2013, and I would sell early accordingly. The buy back, again a spread, would take place some months later, or if there is a 50% retracement from my average sell order. Comments on this tactic would be welcome.
Mainly I am interested in (1) what percentage of my holdings should be traded? (2) I do not trust Coinbase to execute the sale in a timely manner, so I am opening an account at Bitstamp - which I have plenty of time to completely verify. Would it be good practice to leave fiat at Bitstamp between the sell and buy-back? Otherwise I would open a new temporary US banking account to receive the large international wire transfer from Bitstamp. I am afraid that my bank would close my existing personal account upon receiving such a transfer.
I am asking this forum for tactical advice because I do not trust myself in the mania phase of the bubble, and would risk too much. I can afford to lose everything, yet at $5000 or more per bitcoin expected at the next bubble peak - everything in my case would be a large sum.
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Despite the many large investors still hedging on Bitcoin taking over the world, and the spin they push through various media outlets and sites like Coindesk, the truth is that the general Bitcoin community is growing tired. Tired of falling prices. Tired of scandals like Mt. Gox. Tired of rigs they invested in not paying off like they hoped. Tired of maintaining those rigs. Summer on its way. AC bills will rise. Price now trading flat, or in my opinion barely holding on to current levels. Scam after scam with companies that promise mining equipment but instead use your money to develop and build the technology only to use it for months and months, earning the BTC for themselves and skyrocketing the difficulty. Crap coin after crap coin which honestly just makes the whole industry look like a joke. Potcoin. Dogecoin. It makes the technology look like a circus for morons yet more coins come out every day and are backed by exchanges that represent the industry. Could you imagine if the NASDAQ was filled with goofy company names like that?
Posts are slowing on the boards. Hashrate is spread so thin across so many coins. And most coins are so thinly traded, even with the bigger ones you'd have a damn hard time liquidating a large value of currency if you had it, the prices are held up by thin buys, and not enough buyers to really dump huge amounts.
I hope I'm wrong.
Disenchantment.Yet another sentiment data point indicating that bitcoin is near the bottom. |
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Translation: Vlad was right and Bitcoin is very poorly distributed with the large majority of wealth in the hands of a few, thus making Bitcoin very much centralized and eerily similar to a Fiat 2.0.
That's just my guess of course and the true, freedom loving libertarians on this thread will surely delete this message.
Enjoy.
A guess how many people have more than 100 BTC? Not sure, I'd guess a few thousand. Max, 5,000 people. But as a %, the handful of people at the top who easily own at least 25%, has gone up exponentially given the fraction of supposed accounts on Gox. Look, I don't have a personal problem with it, you would expect that to be the case given bitcoin was so easy to mine for some 2 years but not many knew or believed in it. That very nature of the matter created the current distribution. With time it's possible that will change but right now the super rich are accumulating so that will further centralize the power of bitcoin in the hands of a few. I'm not sure it can ever be different [in the end] with any popular currency. I would think that the top % should sell some of their holdings each time we reach an ATH which changes the distribution of course. If those coins were still on Gox then they won't have as many now either will they? I guess Gox might return some of them. I believe that many folks will spend or exchange their holdings when they grow enough. I will, according Risto's savings plan. |
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The logistic adoption trend line provided by my model of bitcoin adoption passes through $10000 on February 25, 2015. If the next bubble happens this summer as some observers project from simple assumptions, then I expect a peak at $6000, falling to $3000 in the bubble collapse during this fall. Therefore, I believe that the bitcoin price will exceed $10000 two bubbles from now, and that this year is the last one in which bitcoin may be easily purchased for less than $1000. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c |
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ASICs is not very good in long term, try to get gpu rig and mine early launched coins, then sellthem when they hit the exchanges.
Mining with GPU's is even more dead. Once Alpha-T Viper and KNC Titan Asic Scrypt Miners hit the market, it's over for those AMD R9 rigs. The advantage with GPUs is you can always sell (or use) them later. My home system just got a free R9 290 upgrade since I've shutdown a small scrypt farm. The issue is dedicated H/W. For example I have a single BFL FPGA single sitting around waiting to go in the trash. There is nothing else to do with it. ASIC H/W that is power efficient will at least last several years where you can run it at around break even. However ASIC H/W that is not power efficient only has a short lifetime since better H/W makes it unprofitable to even turn on. This is why buying early ASICs was always a losing option, you are buying something that is guaranteed to have a short lifetime and long ROI... You won't be able to sell those GPU's when the market will be flooded with R9 290x's after all Scrypt miners shut their rigs down due to the massive network hash jump. A few pennies a day isn't worth it running a 5 or 6 card GPU rig, especially with the electrical costs. With Asic's you always have the good people of EBay.  Those GPUs are already flooding eBay and the prices are depressed but holding up because the GPU market is larger than the scrypt mining market. I just sold one for a ~33% loss over December pricing, disappointing but still profitable with mining factored in. If those were unprofitable ASICs that had to be scraped, then I would have lost money. Additionally, a portion the GPU mining community is excited about ASIC-resistant algorithms such as Scrypt-N and X11. The point of such altcoins is to change the algorithm should an ASIC be developed that threatens GPU miners. Litecoin became the biggest altcoin because of the many GPU miners who wanted an ASIC-resistant algorithm, which Scrypt was at the time. With the expected domination of Litecoin mining by ASICs, the Litecoin devs are not going to change their algorithm, leaving a great opportunity for a more ASIC-resistant altcoin to supplant them. At least that is what I gather from the enthusiastic Vertcoin community on this forum. I have three GPU rigs that I lease in return for bitcoin payments. I will lease to what ever altcoin returns the best profit, and as long as my electric cost does not exceed earned bitcoin revenue. I believe that there is an indefinite future for GPU mining as long as the rig operator is flexible with regard to mining algorithm. As has been pointed out many times, ASICs eventually become junk, but GPUs keep going and can be resold to gamers instead of junked. |
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Did OP change the title of the topic? Wtf has it to do with banking anyway?
I believe that the revised title would be less embarrassing should bitcoin indeed go to the moon on the next bubble, that many expect to occur this summer. At least half of the title would be somewhat true if Second Market opens a Wall Street style exchange for bitcoin.. |
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Tell you what, every time bitcoin's value goes up by $1000, I'll bump this thread once to remind you how much coins you lost, so that you don't lose them again!
My favorite thread to bump during a bubble mania is the classic . . . I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen.There is simply no pleasure in reminding folks of their bad decisions. |
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I have two problems with the volume chart that you might address . . . 1. How current is the data? I first saw this chart back some weeks. 2. I question the volume data reported for Bitcoin. I believe the data aggregators, e.g. Bitcoin Charts, have under reported Chinese exchanges - there are more than 10 of them I think. the data is refreshed every 5-15 minutes, taken from these exchanges http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/markets/info (huobi is not listed yet) you can check the data daily if you want here http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/coins/graphicalComparisonGreat. I agree with your point that Litecoin trading volume is surprisingly high. Interesting that by far the largest bubble on the current chart shows the LTC/CNY pair from OKCoin, but there is no data reported for the BTC/CNY pair. In contrast, BTC China shows over twice as much volume for the BTC/CNY pair than for the LTC/CNY pair. |
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