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5401  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Historical Difficulty Increase last 90 days. 248% on: July 23, 2013, 07:02:40 PM
Death&Taxes, what are your thoughts on ASICMiner having 25% of the network ATM and there are sure to be plenty of other Multi-million dollar companies looking to see what they can suck out of the now "Hip" Bitcoin and overload the Network w/ 100's TH/s each?  There won't be the 20K-30K of individual miners making up a diverse network in that atmosphere.  Would cost too much money to mine.

Maybe I'm just feeling discouraged by all this but I sure don't think it looks good for Bitcoin over the next couple of years....very long time for Bitcoin.  Again, these thoughts are Just my Opinions and Concerns...

I never got this "it costs to much to mine" concept.  It reeks of those bad at math.  Take BFL lineup a Jalapeno is almost as efficient.  If it "cost to much to mine" with a Jalapeno then it "costs to much to mine with a private 100TH/s company as well.  If by "costs to much to mine" you mean "I can't spend $1K in hardware and making $100K a year in profit forever" well your right but those that believed that were just dumb.

ASICMiner only has 25% of marketshare because BFL and Avalon have failed to delivery in volume.  If even half of BFL pre-orders had shipped then ASCIMiner's share would be more like 10% to 15%.
5402  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Which altcoins aim for GPU resistivity? on: July 23, 2013, 06:58:47 PM
GPU resistance as in Botnet friendly?


What happens when botnets use GPUs?
5403  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Question on theory ... on: July 23, 2013, 06:56:49 PM
Im pretty dumb but it seems to me if I buy with USD 20 usb asics to start with that alone will recoup costs within 300ish days at current difficulty.

Well the number of units is irrelivent. If 20 will return their purchase price in mined coins in 300 days then so will 20,000 or 2 or 1.

Still assumming current difficulty for 300 days is silly.  Take a look at a year long difficulty chart and pretend a year ago you had assumed that buying a bunch of FGPAs.  Oops difficulty increased 500%.

Say it is 300 mining days to break even at current difficulty and imagine you mined for 30 days and then difficulty doubles.  Ok so you mined 30 days and have 270 days days to break even except now it doubled so it is 540 days to break even.  Well that is longer but no problem.  You are able to mine 60 days before difficulty doubles again.  So 530 days - 90 = 440 *2 = 800 days to break even.  You mine another 90 days and difficulty doubles again ...

Starting to get the picture.
5404  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Historical Difficulty Increase last 90 days. 248% on: July 23, 2013, 06:50:47 PM
"Any average person can just look at the Pre-order numbers from all the companies as well as the Chips buys...add in the ASICMiners and it equals wayyyy more Network Diff then we can make any profit with."

Then don't buy or wait and buy them for pennies on the dollar from discouraged miners who are really bad at math.  I mean people kept buying even knowning that tens (hundreds) of TH/s were ordered ahead of them.  People kept pre-ordering even when the companies fell further and further behind.

In the long run the market will reach equilibrium.  The reality is many who bought ASICs foolishly are never going to make back the cost of their hardware.   The have already lost 30% to 60% of their purchase price they just don't know it yet.
5405  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Butterfly Labs shipping 300 units a day on: July 23, 2013, 06:31:29 PM
Lets say BFL can ship 300 units per day. For the sake of argument, lets say those units are little singles.
300 x 30GH/s = 9000 GH/s per day shipped.
That means in the last 10 working days, BFL claims to have shipped 90 TH/s.
I see Avalon's batch 2 arriving and the ASICMiner increase in hash rate. I don't see the extra 90TH/s BFL claims to have shipped.

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Fuck that! What about 300 units a day for the past month and they are all Jellys?

300 X 30 = 9,000 X 4.5 = 40,500

That equates to 405 TH/s shipped.

And we know Goddamn well that they ordered units themselves to be hosted at the Josh's and Joe's data centers under the guise of foreign miners not wanting to pay the shipping fees or the hassle, both of which is a mute issue since these people don't really exist.

Fuck, they probably placed names in the queue for those mega-miners for the purpose of not only mining with them, but to sell them on the open market, i.e. eBay.


Math. 

This is why I love Bitcoin.  The provability of the blockchain.  If BFL shipped 90TH/s or 400TH/s we would see it in difficulty.  Actually if anyone was mining with that gear (BFL or owner) we would see it in the difficulty.

So the bad news is that even if BFL is self-mining they are doing so with such a small amount of hashing power as to not be meaningful in context of the amount of orders they have promised.
5406  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-07-23 BI: SEC Charges Texas Man With Running Bitcoin Ponzi Scheme on: July 23, 2013, 06:23:50 PM
If people want to invest with an unregulated market with some guy only known by pirate something-or-other then why should regulators step in?   Do people want regulators involved or not?   Or only when it is convenient?

Regulators are ALREADY involved and they honestly don't care your (or mine or anyone's) opinion on if they should be.
5407  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-07-23 BI: SEC Charges Texas Man With Running Bitcoin Ponzi Scheme on: July 23, 2013, 06:22:46 PM
sec only does civil from what i understand. he needs to be charged criminally as well.

Yes but the SEC (or FinCEN or other federal agency) tend to work hand in hand with the Justice dept.  So while SEC can't file criminal charges they have already done the legwork.  All it requires is a phone call and turning over all docs to Justice dept and you can have an arrest warrant as fast as you can wake a judge up.  Note since sometimes people skim comments and reach their own conclusions I am not saying that he WILL be charged but just that if the Justice Dept wants to well it is trivial at this point.

The bad news is it is unlikely victims will get much if anything back other than the satisfaction that Pirate (still can't believe people gave a guy named "Pirate" hundreds of thousands of BTC) is in trouble.
5408  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: FinCEN on: July 23, 2013, 06:19:35 PM
Here's an interesting question: A miner set up a VPS in another country and mines with a pool here, the pool sends all of the bitcoins to a wallet located on the VPS in another country; then the miner exchanges those mined units on an exchange located outside of the country. Since the bitcoins were never located in a state that licenses "money transmitters", would this be possible and not violate the guidance?

On that fact pattern, nobody is actually located in the US or doing business with US citizens?  I don't believe US regulators would have any jurisdiction over the miner.

If the miner is a US citizen residing in the US, then it's a closer call.

Using the same scenario: What if the miner was a US Citizen and the mining rig was located in the US, but just like in the scenario, the pool sent the bitcoins rewarded to the VPS that was located outside of the country and those mined units were exchanged on a foreign exchange?

Generally speaking if it involves a US entity then our over reaching federal govt is going to claim jurisdiction.  Take online poker as an example.  US players, playing on foreign servers run by foreign companies and with banks in foreign countries.  The Justice department seized the servers, bank accounts, and filed charges against the foreign companies.

5409  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Miner's Official Coin LAUNCH - NUGGETS (NUGs) on: July 23, 2013, 07:17:47 AM
Can't you understand just the basic math has to be different for these coins as one is a function if a lottery while the other 2 are preset time functions which are predetermined which makes it way easier to do.

None use predetermined times.  Every superblock clone uses a "lottery" random function.  The code in your coin is an EXACT copy of the code from luckycoin. It even uses the same variable names, whitespace, and structure.  It is immediately obvious to anyone that it was just copied and pasted from luckycoin's source code. I showed you copies of both Nugget and LuckyCoin codebase with the exact same code in it.  They are exactly the same except yours has a mistake in the ordering of the functions which results in no blocks ever being bonus/super/golden. Yours doesn't work because the developer made a mistake.  Nobody has fixed it because nobody cares.
5410  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Miner's Official Coin LAUNCH - NUGGETS (NUGs) on: July 23, 2013, 07:10:24 AM
please lock it in my Repo files so these scammers don't steal everything. Let them think of a new feature for their own coins. I mean, my copied, stolen coins.

For fuck sake you would think in 73 pages you would have learned something.

Open source is OPEN.  There is no such thing as "lock it in your repo file".  It is a repository, that means a place for storing code, history of changes, bugfixes, etc.  It doesn't lock/hide the code.  If it did nobody would use it because it would be closed source.  

Here is the bitcoin repository
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin

Notice you can view all the files, you can view all the changes too, and you can view who made the changes, you can also view all the projects which are forks of the original project, all the pull (changes not yet incorporated into the mainline project) as well as all the debate on various bugs, fixes, and patches.

None of it is hidden or locked.  It is OPEN TO THE PUBLIC.
5411  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Miner's Official Coin LAUNCH - NUGGETS (NUGs) on: July 23, 2013, 07:04:46 AM
Yeah that is EXACTLY like LuckyCoin and the other dozen or so copycat scamcoins which came out before NUG.  By EXACTLY I mean just that.  There is absolutely nothing novel or innovative about NUG well unless you consider the fact that it didn't launch and has to set a record for most incompetent promoter.  Notice I said promoter not developer because that would require that you actually develop something.
5412  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin's Big Problem... on: July 23, 2013, 01:44:47 AM
Yes paper currency will be around for 20+ years, probably more. However the US government DOES want a decline of the dollar, though not a death. Its enormous debts are denominated in dollars so it is in the interests of the US government to see a decline in the dollar because this means a decline of the real value of its debts. The pound lost 25% of its value in 2008 and this was praised by many in "The City". Paper currencies are in a "race to the bottom".

Ahh this makes sense... I guess the question is what will big Government turn to after they devalue the dollar? How will they collect taxes, and in what form will the average man be paid? I don't like the idea of the government collecting taxes from my bitcoins, but I also recognize the need for a tax paying society in order to function.

Devalued simply means worth less not worthless.   They will pay people and collect taxes just like they do now.  It just might be that minimum wage is $48 an hour a Combo meal at burger king costs $60.00 and a college education (state college 4 years) is $1.2 million.
5413  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: BIG difficulty jump coming on: July 23, 2013, 01:41:03 AM
My Coinbits app says dif is dropping next to 27 mil.  How is that?

Most tools for estimating difficulty looking only at blocks since last difficulty change.  So right after difficulty change they are mostly useful and you really are looking at just the "luck" of the network.  In 3 or 4 days if it says the same thing then it might mean something.  Difficulty can go down.  It means more hashing power was turned off then hashing power was turned on.
5414  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [VMC] Official Virtual Mining Corporation - EXPOSED on: July 23, 2013, 01:37:40 AM
Your complaints seem to me to be based off eASIC's 45nm offering, but ActiveMining (VMC) is reportedly contracting them to design a 28nm chip. Perhaps their 28nm process is still behind-the-scenes as it isn't described on eASIC's website from what I could find, so I doubt you have any idea that their 28nm process is capable of.

Well not saying it is or isn't a possible but a die shrink at most means 2x the transistors for the same die space and in theory double the efficiency (MH/W and MH/$).  As a pratical matter nobody gets full theretical boost.  A 50%-70% improvement would be more realistic.
5415  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Miner's Official Coin LAUNCH - NUGGETS (NUGs) on: July 22, 2013, 11:45:52 PM
That's definitely one last mistake I'll never make ever again.

Probably a good idea but I doubt it.  That would require you to actually learn something.  You have been incredibly successful at not learning anything in this process so far. 
5416  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Miner's Official Coin LAUNCH - NUGGETS (NUGs) on: July 22, 2013, 11:38:04 PM
Next time it will be closed source and SHA256, and a 5% premine, half for the founder and half for bounties..  No negotiations.  You don't like it, don't mine it and attack it.

LOLZ.  Closed source crypto-coin.  That is beyond hilarious.  Please, please I beg you to make it.  I will create, premine, and give you 10,000 LOLZCoins if you do.

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I said if my coin is a clone of super or lucky coins and they're working just fine snd all that was done was a copy and paste then why can't anyone get my coin to do the golden blocks?

Maybe nobody wants to work with you.  BTW Spots is a clone of Nuggets except it works.  It is still a worthless scamcoin but at least it works.

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With that kind of money and PhD talent there's no way to fail as long as the ideas are good.

That is the problem you never had any good ideas.  $10M, an entire development team, and professional branding, it wouldn't matter.  You can try to shine a turd all you want but it is still a turd.
5417  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [NUG] - Nugget Bounty Thread on: July 22, 2013, 11:21:48 PM
Oh yeah it was the first proposal to use only the merkleroot, but just after I said it would be better to use the hash of the current block instead.

Oops missed that. That probably is not exploitable. Still I think variable rewards are really just a useless gimmick.   Today if you want a small chance of a massive reward you can solo mine Bitcoin ... except nobody does it because it is lower risk to accept a high chance of a smaller reward in a pool.
5418  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [NUG] - Nugget Bounty Thread on: July 22, 2013, 11:19:55 PM
Either you're forgetting that changing the merkletree changes the block hash, or I'm really tired and can't understand what you're saying.
I'll come back and read it again after a good night. Not like Vlad, I swear!

Maybe I misunderstood what you were saying but if the super block is based on the merkle root hash that will be KNOWN before you attempt to solve a block.

i.e.
solve coinbases until you find a super merkle root hash AND THEN
only using "super merkle root hashes" mine normally.

The time to solve a block will be normal and you will always have a super block.

Now I see what you're saying.

There's still no guarantee that the transactions you have available can be assigned into a "super merkle" root though.


Of course it can.  The coinbase has an extra nonce field, simply increment that and check if the it produces a super merkle root.  If the odds of a super block are say 1 in 200 it will take on average 200 attempts and you would have a "super merkle".  Now just that super merkle exclusively using nonces and timestamps to produce a hash.  If/when you find a block it will ALWAYS be a super block.

Given that "exploit" nobody would mine any other way. 
5419  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [NUG] - Nugget Bounty Thread on: July 22, 2013, 11:06:43 PM
Either you're forgetting that changing the merkletree changes the block hash, or I'm really tired and can't understand what you're saying.
I'll come back and read it again after a good night. Not like Vlad, I swear!

Maybe I misunderstood what you were saying but if the super block is based on the merkle root hash that will be KNOWN before you attempt to solve a block.

i.e.
solve coinbases until you find a super merkle root hash AND THEN
only using "super merkle root hashes" mine normally.

The time to solve a block will be normal and you will always have a super block.
5420  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: BIG difficulty jump coming on: July 22, 2013, 11:01:51 PM
And if no one do not buy new hardware, nobody wants bitcoins and bitcoins price reduce. Now everyone usually buy bitcoins for new hardware. More hardware you have more difficulty you increase and you have buy more and more hardware. But if everyone stop buy new hardware where to put bitcoins? bitcoin price will 0 $ ;/

Um no.  Bitcoin is more than mining. 

Lets be honest here, no its not.  Not really. Probably 95% of people who back bitcoin and scream viva la revolution do so as they mine, in hopes of getting rich.  I mean dont get me wrong the whole concept is pretty neat and all, but its not likely to ever get too big, because if it does you can bet uncle sam will lay the smack down.

Well then why are you here?  There is no barrier to entry on mining so on a long enough timeline the margin on mining is going to zero.
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