Although I accept the arguments made against the altcoin industry, I am a participant in it by way of leasing 3 GPU mining rigs that are currently configured for the Litecoin-compatible Scrypt algorithm. The term of each lease is 72 hours and I get paid in bitcoin. I set the lease prices low enough to keep the rigs continually leased, and they remain slightly more profitable than using a multipool that automatically mines the most profitable altcoin and automatically sells the proceeds on an altcoin exchange for payment to me in bitcoin.
 

I would like an annual pass to Bitcoin ETPLand.

In the collapse of the April 2013 bubble I felt strongly that the retracement would be deeper than it turned out to be, based upon the notion that the April 2013 bubble would be similar in shape to the great 2011 bubble. I felt very bad having fiat in my trading account when prices went up and I had to buy back higher. I resolved to never make that mistake again. Which made me pull all coin out of MtGox well in advance of their subsequent troubles.

Better to be in bitcoin and watch prices go down, than to be in cash and watch prices go up - my experience.

I have a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that suggests an expected price of $840,503 on July 1, 2017, if we stay on that trend line. Close enough?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c

Well yes. The stuff I sold I do not need. I strongly believe that 2014 is the last year in which one may easily buy bitcoin for under $1000. Additionally, because I think bitcoin goes to 1 million USD in 2018, I simply add three zeros onto the coins' purchase price and imagine what that would buy only four years from now, e.g. a car in 2018 for a $40 today. Ha.

I understand that when you said "I sold almost everything I have to defend that wall" you mean that you sold ordinary belongings for fiat and used that cash to buy bitcoin. Right?

If so, then I have done something similar by selling an old gold bracelet for cash, then putting that cash into my local Robocoin ATM to buy bitcoin. I have been looking around the house for stuff I do not need anymore, but given my household's frugal lifestyle, there is not much left to sell. By agreement with my still skeptical wife, my bitcoin cold wallet and hot wallet are separate from our substantial retirement savings and real estate portfolio - so can't touch the latter.

Interesting.

My initial projection of the next bitcoin bubble peaks July-August and collapses by the fall. If indeed there is a summer bubble then no Wall Street ETF will fuel it.

Does anyone have an idea when the BIT EFT will launch for the public?

Is it true that Luke-jr killed at least one altcoin with a 51% attack? His SHA256 Eligius pool is ranked #4 in SHA256 hashpower. And he knows how to wreck a blockchain. Or is Luke Jr on board with you?

That's exactly right.

Zero fee trading is a good thing. Slippage on an exchange occurs when a big order cannot be filled at the market price because of a lack of liquidity. Zero fee trading permits human market makers, and computer algorithm software, to supply bids and asks very near to the current market price. Zero fee trading means less slippage and a better experience for the informed traders, according to the theory of market microstructure.

Many others share the belief that the Bitcoin Economy has a binary distribution with regard to probability of success. Either Bitcoin entirely replaces the existing legacy, pre-internet financial infrastructure, or it entirely fails to do so. Fortunately, if bitcoin prices go to zero, it would not be a life changing event for me. Rather I would simply commit all my freed up time to my research.

For me Bitcoin is not the end, but the best means to an end.

That is exactly how I feel - not worried at all and feeling more excited than anything!

This next bubble will not be life-changing for me, as a lifetime of frugality, a good marriage, and compound interest have given me freedom for some years. But the bubble in 2015 will allow me to self-angel-fund my startup, and the bubble in 2016 will self-cover what would otherwise be VC round A.

Exciting indeed.

This particular store also has a Robocoin Bitcoin ATM in the lobby. There is always plenty of free parking outside. It is my favorite bitcoin ATM in Austin - where we have two others downtown where parking is not often convenient.

I am not a gun enthusiast, but I love this store. I will be going there in the morning to buy more coin.

Cultures have reified, i.e. named certain sized groups when that made sense to make conversation more concise. For example when I say a herd of cattle or a flock of birds, or a school of fish, you have a commonsense shared notion of how many individuals are in the group. Likewise, when I say a stack of dollars or a ton of gold, these group noun phrases suggest a certain quantity.

Given that the value of bitcoin is not yet stable, I think that it is premature to look for the sort of collective crypto noun phrases you mention. However, I would like to have a phrase that encompasses what is vulgarly called Fuck You Money - which is the quantity of money that allows one the freedom to live without working for a boss.

"shitload of coin"
"lot of coin"
"enough coin"
"frozen cold wallet of coin"
"Satoshi's lost stash of coin"
... etc.

If and when my power costs exceed my GPU rig leasing profits, then I will power off and buy coins with the the new found fiat that I would have otherwise spent on power.

Bitcoin is stuff-like, like gold, in that any piece of bitcoin may be subdivided and the portions are still bitcoin. This argues for the collective noun of Bitcoin to be Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin is also a currency unit, such as the Euro or Dollar or Peso, and unlike gold. In the context of currency units, the collective noun of bitcoin is bitcoins.

I go either way depending upon context. When I say I am going to buy some coin, I mean some under-specified amount of bitcoin that likely is a fraction of a BTC.

Satoshi Nakamoto reasoned that miners would self-regulate in that when rewards were likely miners would add capacity, and when rewards were unlikely compared to costs, then miners would subtract capacity. I shut my GPU rigs off in 2011 in the face of ASICs and climbing difficulty and turned them back with additional capacity in December 2013. I may have to turn off my rigs again if profits continue to diminish - while waiting for the next bitcoin bubble.

Here is my first projection of the next bubble . . .

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.msg6027236#msg6027236



The crucial, falsifiable, assumption is that the next bubble will be similar in shape to the previous two bubbles. My initial hand-projection of the previous two bubbles aligns the pre-peak bottoms. I assume that we are currently at the bottom of the November 2013 bubble collapse.

If indeed the next bubble peaks in November, then I project the peak price to be $12000 or so.

My favorite from 2011 . . .

BCX, because I strongly believe that the next bitcoin bubble will occur this summer, I have postponed adding capacity to my GPU mining rigs - even though used equipment that meets my needs is now available for half the my cost two months ago. Rather, I have been buying coins at my local Robocoin ATM when I have the fiat cash, and also retaining the bitcoin profit that I get from leasing out my rigs. My plan is to spend coin when prices are some multiple of where they are now. Even if all the great deals vanish on Ebay, Craigslist, Amazon, etc., I still come out way ahead buying hardware during the bubble than at other times.

Your thoughts?

Anger.

Negative sentiment prevails.

Bottoms are characterized by a lack of buyers. I cannot imagine a situation that would induce you to buy more bitcoins. Yet that, I believe, is the wisest course of action.

In the morning, when the store hosting my neighborhood Robocoin ATM opens, I will buy some more coin.

Despair.

Yet another sentiment data point indicating that we are near the bottom of this bubble collapse.