rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[BitChick]

I wouldn't say "lack of college fund".  It's just that they would have to go to a state school instead of private.  And maybe have smaller weddings instead of bigger.  No big deal, really.

And if Bitcoin goes to zero, BitchicksHusband would have to continue to browse the web and post on message boards at the office instead of at home. 

[Kramerc]

Would it also be life-changing for you if we don´t get a new bubble and instead fall down to <100$ ?

Many others share the belief that the Bitcoin Economy has a binary distribution with regard to probability of success. Either Bitcoin entirely replaces the existing legacy, pre-internet financial infrastructure, or it entirely fails to do so. Fortunately, if bitcoin prices go to zero, it would not be a life changing event for me. Rather I would simply commit all my freed up time to my research.

For me Bitcoin is not the end, but the best means to an end.

This is exactly where I stand too. Bitcoin is the best means which could enable me to follow my dream. If it can't, I'll just have to find a different solution.

[EFS]

I'm also excited about this year and next years run. I share you with same beliefs. I wish I can buy more coins, I'm (fiat) broke.

[2017orso]

To further this last point a bit, even if conversion does fall and is bound for whatever reason (which won't happen, not sure how it's even a question anymore 5 years in given the level of progress), many including myself re-formulated their desired ends.  Becoming engulfed by bitcoin leads to learning about many topics at the fringes of their respective developments.  If concerned, simply factor in some element of failure potential, such that your newly aligned interests and future goals can develop towards whichever cryptocurrency related paradigm inspires you, and progress regardless.  

[fr33d0miz3r]

- Bid/ask strengh at market: slippage to sell 5k: $35, slippage to buy: $60, conclusion: potential for quick upside move

I would say more:
Slippage to sell 15k: $50, slippage to buy 15k: $280

[Biodom]

Would it also be life-changing for you if we don´t get a new bubble and instead fall down to <100$ ?

Many others share the belief that the Bitcoin Economy has a binary distribution with regard to probability of success. Either Bitcoin entirely replaces the existing legacy, pre-internet financial infrastructure, or it entirely fails to do so. Fortunately, if bitcoin prices go to zero, it would not be a life changing event for me. Rather I would simply commit all my freed up time to my research.

For me Bitcoin is not the end, but the best means to an end.

I hope that bitcoin's prospects will not be undermined by people like Circle which is selling out way too early.
http://gigaom.com/2014/04/07/bitcoin-will-be-part-of-the-global-banking-order-says-circle-ceo/

"In his view, the choice between bitcoin and conventional fiat currencies doesn’t represent an “either/or” proposition. Instead, he predicted the two systems will one day become intertwined through commercial banks and ATM networks. More remarkably, Allaire also suggested that national governments could one day establish treaties to regulate bitcoin mining cartels, and act as market makers for bitcoin through their central banks."

[AnonyMint]

What we have now is the adjustment to the reality that the adoption curve is really log-logistic as I have shown, thus rpietila's claim from his linear adoption projection chart that the price should be $900+ is likely incorrect.

My best way to convince you this is so, is to note that there is no way the universe would remove all competition to make it so easy for lazy investors to become so insanely rich. To become very wealthy requires active knowledge in developing and managing. The universe doesn't hand great sustained wealth to people who make one lucky decision. Rather (even the greatest of all time such as Jesse Livermore) speculators always end up back at 0 eventually.

Bitcoin is not going to $0 and it is going higher eventually. But the rate of price appreciation will not be "to the moon" although another speculative frenzy might make you believe that one more time (to your great demise because next time it will really crash hard because adoption will have drastically slowed and there will be other vastly superior competitors taking over the ecosystem).

Btw, I have looked into the eye of the future of crypto-currency and I have seen that Bitcoin is going to be wiped out. I have seen some new designs in the past few days that blew my mind.

You are going to be hit with an onslaught of very serious altcoins and not just my designs.

[master-P]

Prior to the November rally last year, BTC price was floating around $100, which is around 38% of the $266 ATH. Right now the price is about $450, which is 37.5% of the current $1200 ATH. It seems like $450 is the price we're gonna settle at till the next upwards push. If the Chinese do dump most of their coins, we could see a flash crash followed by a quick recovery back to the $400s.

[foody]

What we have now is the adjustment to the reality that the adoption curve is really log-logistic as I have shown, thus rpietila's claim from his linear adoption projection chart that the price should be $900+ is likely incorrect.

My best way to convince you this is so, is to note that there is no way the universe would remove all competition to make it so easy for lazy investors to become so insanely rich. To become very wealthy requires active knowledge in developing and managing. The universe doesn't hand great sustained wealth to people who make one lucky decision. Rather (even the greatest of all time such as Jesse Livermore) speculators always end up back at 0 eventually.

Bitcoin is not going to $0 and it is going higher eventually. But the rate of price appreciation will not be "to the moon" although another speculative frenzy might make you believe that one more time (to your great demise because next time it will really crash hard because adoption will have drastically slowed and there will be other vastly superior competitors taking over the ecosystem).

Btw, I have looked into the eye of the future of crypto-currency and I have seen that Bitcoin is going to be wiped out. I have seen some new designs in the past few days that blew my mind.

You are going to be hit with an onslaught of very serious altcoins and not just my designs.

What are the designs?

[fr33d0miz3r]

Prior to the November rally last year, BTC price was floating around $100, which is around 38% of the $266 ATH. Right now the price is about $450, which is 37.5% of the current $1200 ATH. It seems like $450 is the price we're gonna settle at till the next upwards push. If the Chinese do dump most of their coins, we could see a flash crash followed by a quick recovery back to the $400s.

Agreed

[AnonyMint]

What are the designs?

Zerocash (the improvement on Zerocoin) for one where even the payer, payee, and amount of every transaction is blinded on the block chain (the entire block chain is a fog) which is to be announced with great fanfare at Oakland crypto conference May 18. My guess is the open source code is likely not be production ready then.

However, I don't like Zerocash for these reasons:

Zerocash has other weaknesses which I think are unacceptable, e.g. if the setup was hacked you have no way to know if the coin suppy is being increased more than allowed and thus the money supply is always unknown and the 9ms (111 transactions per second) verification speed per i7 core means it might not scale well for micro payments. One thousand i7 cpu cores would be required to process 100,000 transactions per second, not including denial-of-service attacks transaction spam. That would probably force centralization of mining.

I've seen another design which has similar anonymity on the block chain which doesn't have the above weaknesses. It might even already be implemented (studying the code as we speak).

I am not encouraging anyone to think the BTC price is going much lower. That is not my point.

For me the sign that something was out-of-whack on the expectations was when I saw Goats making plans to run the world. I realized reality had been transformed into fantasy. I don't say that to ridicule anyone, but really I don't believe radical change can come from a small group of masterminds who don't actually program daily. The future is really high tech driven. The future is not just about ideas, but also and perhaps mostly importantly about many minute technical details and implementation.

[billyjoeallen]

Suggestion for those tempted to short BTC in order to gain more coins:  Instead, take a moderately short position on the Russell 2000 for the next week or two.  Less risk, more upside.  Roll gains into BTC.

It's people covering shorts that will save us if the $400 wall is breached. Profitably shorting bitcoin helps reduce volatility.

[billyjoeallen]

This feels like a good selling spot ~459 for a quickish trade.  I will buy back at ~421 or so within 72hrs.

This is unbelievable recklessness. There is a chance that we have just now passed the bottom and that 421 will never be visited again. Even if it is, the gain is not too big, too many uncertainties, and the volume is not there - I couldn't even make such a trade due to low volume.

Quick TA update:
- 6H candle color/volume: not much volume lately hard to say anything, conclusion: can go either way
- Bid/ask strengh at market: slippage to sell 5k: $35, slippage to buy: $60, conclusion: potential for quick upside move
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.322 log units. The trendline is at $966 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (of all of the time between the 4/2013 and 11/2013 peaks, only 2% (5 days) was spent this low)
- Sentiment: I was out for 4 days, so cannot evaluate the sentiment now
- Prognosis: 400 is the critical level, if it holds, upside is sure - if it falls, there may be a flash crash to lower levels. Holding above it has in my opinion strengthened my bullish view, although the critics say it is just a preparation for an assault to 400. I don't believe the masses who sell at 400 even exist, and the trendline strongly indicated that this is a bottom.

If $400 falls, it becomes a ceiling instead of a floor. I sold almost everything I have to defend that wall and it may not hold. If it breeches, we may not see another ATH this year. The good news is we'll have weeks if not longer to pick up $300 coins. Plenty of time to have a garage sale and move back in with Mom and Dad.

[aminorex]

Suggestion for those tempted to short BTC in order to gain more coins:  Instead, take a moderately short position on the Russell 2000 for the next week or two.  Less risk, more upside.  Roll gains into BTC.

It's people covering shorts that will save us if the $400 wall is breached. Profitably shorting bitcoin helps reduce volatility.

I am not objecting to taking short positions generally.  I caution people against taking what I see as the riskier side. If your goal is to trade into a larger position because you think btc is undervalued it makes more sense to short something which is patently overvalued.

[BTCtrader71]

Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose.

You know, buying and HODL'ing good is good enough for me,
good enough for me and my Bobby McGee.

[billyjoeallen]

Suggestion for those tempted to short BTC in order to gain more coins:  Instead, take a moderately short position on the Russell 2000 for the next week or two.  Less risk, more upside.  Roll gains into BTC.

It's people covering shorts that will save us if the $400 wall is breached. Profitably shorting bitcoin helps reduce volatility.

I am not objecting to taking short positions generally.  I caution people against taking what I see as the riskier side. If your goal is to trade into a larger position because you think btc is undervalued it makes more sense to short something which is patently overvalued.

I agree that btc is undervalued in the long term, but short term (until April 15) I think it is overvalued. My analysis is subject to change of course if conditions change.

[SlipperySlope]

If $400 falls, it becomes a ceiling instead of a floor. I sold almost everything I have to defend that wall and it may not hold. If it breeches, we may not see another ATH this year. The good news is we'll have weeks if not longer to pick up $300 coins. Plenty of time to have a garage sale and move back in with Mom and Dad.

I understand that when you said "I sold almost everything I have to defend that wall" you mean that you sold ordinary belongings for fiat and used that cash to buy bitcoin. Right?

If so, then I have done something similar by selling an old gold bracelet for cash, then putting that cash into my local Robocoin ATM to buy bitcoin. I have been looking around the house for stuff I do not need anymore, but given my household's frugal lifestyle, there is not much left to sell. By agreement with my still skeptical wife, my bitcoin cold wallet and hot wallet are separate from our substantial retirement savings and real estate portfolio - so can't touch the latter.

[podyx]

If $400 falls, it becomes a ceiling instead of a floor. I sold almost everything I have to defend that wall and it may not hold. If it breeches, we may not see another ATH this year. The good news is we'll have weeks if not longer to pick up $300 coins. Plenty of time to have a garage sale and move back in with Mom and Dad.

I understand that when you said "I sold almost everything I have to defend that wall" you mean that you sold ordinary belongings for fiat and used that cash to buy bitcoin. Right?

If so, then I have done something similar by selling an old gold bracelet for cash, then putting that cash into my local Robocoin ATM to buy bitcoin. I have been looking around the house for stuff I do not need anymore, but given my household's frugal lifestyle, there is not much left to sell. By agreement with my wife, my bitcoin portfolio is separate from our substantial retirement savings and real estate portfolio - so can't touch that.

Wow. You are actually selling shit to acquire more bitcoin?

[MahaRamana]

What we have now is the adjustment to the reality that the adoption curve is really log-logistic as I have shown, thus rpietila's claim from his linear adoption projection chart that the price should be $900+ is likely incorrect.

My best way to convince you this is so, is to note that there is no way the universe would remove all competition to make it so easy for lazy investors to become so insanely rich. To become very wealthy requires active knowledge in developing and managing. The universe doesn't hand great sustained wealth to people who make one lucky decision. Rather (even the greatest of all time such as Jesse Livermore) speculators always end up back at 0 eventually.

Bitcoin is not going to $0 and it is going higher eventually. But the rate of price appreciation will not be "to the moon" although another speculative frenzy might make you believe that one more time (to your great demise because next time it will really crash hard because adoption will have drastically slowed and there will be other vastly superior competitors taking over the ecosystem).

Btw, I have looked into the eye of the future of crypto-currency and I have seen that Bitcoin is going to be wiped out. I have seen some new designs in the past few days that blew my mind.

You are going to be hit with an onslaught of very serious altcoins and not just my designs.

I agree with the fact that we are probably not going to continue following the exponential trendline that Risto is using as a basis for his TA. The question is : how long will we have to remain under the trendline for the recognition that, although is was a good model for the first phase of bitcoin rise, it is not for the next phase that is starting.

Anyway one has to recognise that the past exponential trend line MUST be broken sooner or later. The questions is only if it is broken this year (which I believe), the year after that, or the next. What would be the price of BTC in April 2017 if we would stay on the trend line ?  

[SlipperySlope]

If $400 falls, it becomes a ceiling instead of a floor. I sold almost everything I have to defend that wall and it may not hold. If it breeches, we may not see another ATH this year. The good news is we'll have weeks if not longer to pick up $300 coins. Plenty of time to have a garage sale and move back in with Mom and Dad.

I understand that when you said "I sold almost everything I have to defend that wall" you mean that you sold ordinary belongings for fiat and used that cash to buy bitcoin. Right?

If so, then I have done something similar by selling an old gold bracelet for cash, then putting that cash into my local Robocoin ATM to buy bitcoin. I have been looking around the house for stuff I do not need anymore, but given my household's frugal lifestyle, there is not much left to sell. By agreement with my wife, my bitcoin portfolio is separate from our substantial retirement savings and real estate portfolio - so can't touch that.

Wow. You are actually selling shit to acquire more bitcoin?

Well yes. The stuff I sold I do not need. I strongly believe that 2014 is the last year in which one may easily buy bitcoin for under $1000. Additionally, because I think bitcoin goes to 1 million USD in 2018, I simply add three zeros onto the coins' purchase price and imagine what that would buy only four years from now, e.g. a car in 2018 for a $40 today. Ha.