No one has a crystal ball price could do anything up or down.
monkey does. he wants it down for another week. Would poking him with a pointy stick make him change his mind? Or monkey hookers and cocaine? EDIT: Gold has a rocket up its arse and the dow is back on course with its plummet, should be a push up but I'm not about to doubt the monkeys wisdom. Gold has been bouncing off the $1200 mark for past year and a half or so.... last time it went this low (it hit $1208.xx) was in July 2010, support seems strong enough at $1200 for a bounce off here ($1221 a moment ago) if it continues this will be its third bounce off of $1200, remains to be seen if it manages to break $1400 this time around... It seems like its caught by the balls but I've a feeling something big is happening at the mo. The ESF isn't the only one pushing markets around, there's an economic war being fought on them and I think the drop after the US found an excuse to drop bombs on Syria may have been an escalation. In that regard Bitcoin is a bomb ready to go off any time, its another chink in the dollars world reserve armour. Indeed, Gold is overdue a big move to the upside and it will come eventually, and is being pushed around at the moment and as you say not just the ESF, but it has got to give eventually, been a lot of accumulating going on past few years at a state level, looks like some players are considering a return to a partial gold standard and a basket of currencies taking the place of the dollar as world reserve. I think you are right, BTC could play a role in this as the currency wars continue to pan out, gold already is already fully in play, as is the printing press of course. If the perfect storm occurs the next proper move to the upside, when the time is right will surely take gold up past $1800 and on towards $3000+. What if the state level accumulation was primarily short covering? |
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Up to 70% trade happens in China...Bitcoin is not going anywhere anytime unless it's favorable to them.
This figure is based on volume from Chinese exchanges with no trading fees. There is no cost to have two accounts and fake volume. |
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Shorts on BFX are closing their positions. Smart move.
Total Sum Active BTC Swaps = 9273
Change Total Sum BTC Swaps (24h) = -1634
The more shorts closed at this price level, the more likely the most recent push was just a short squeeze. A real reversal would see organic buying pressure up to major resistance, and then a flurry of closing shorts providing the rest of the volume we need to get up over it. Shorts closing now is important to the market because it cannot generate "free money". If too many people are poised to profit from a move, then it tends not to happen at all. So, neither bullish nor bearish, really. None of the shorts closed during the run up. They actually increased slightly during that time. Well after we peaked is when a few thousand BTC worth closed out. |
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Ripple is the US banking system's attempt to avoid being destroyed by Bitcoin. They think that if they make USD transactions easier then they'll be able to avoid losing the USD as a unit of account. Note that Ripple's consensus system is a closed, invite-only network. Exactly what you'd want if you were trying to preserve a banking cartel's position in the world. Even if you do NOT agree with Ripple's goals and objectives, would it NOT be a good investment, based on the rationale that you lay out, above. Let's say that various status quo banking, financial and government systems buy-into Ripple to attempt to preserve whatever status quo situation that they enjoy, then wouldn't we want to jump on board and profit from that, even if we do NOT agree ideologically and even if the bandaid solution of Ripple may NOT be long term ... but profit, while we can from such in investing into Ripple for the next 2-4 years or something like that? I am NOT talking any book because at the moment, I own NO ripple at all.... and actually I am disinclined to invest anything into ripple because it seems to be too much of a potential scam.. Ripple is not a good investment because a single private entity owns vastly more XRP than are in circulation and can squash the price at their discretion. so can satoshi and a handful of others You're talking more coins than are in circulation vs. 10% of what is in circulation. Big difference. |
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Ripple is the US banking system's attempt to avoid being destroyed by Bitcoin. They think that if they make USD transactions easier then they'll be able to avoid losing the USD as a unit of account. Note that Ripple's consensus system is a closed, invite-only network. Exactly what you'd want if you were trying to preserve a banking cartel's position in the world. Even if you do NOT agree with Ripple's goals and objectives, would it NOT be a good investment, based on the rationale that you lay out, above. Let's say that various status quo banking, financial and government systems buy-into Ripple to attempt to preserve whatever status quo situation that they enjoy, then wouldn't we want to jump on board and profit from that, even if we do NOT agree ideologically and even if the bandaid solution of Ripple may NOT be long term ... but profit, while we can from such in investing into Ripple for the next 2-4 years or something like that? I am NOT talking any book because at the moment, I own NO ripple at all.... and actually I am disinclined to invest anything into ripple because it seems to be too much of a potential scam.. Ripple is not a good investment because a single private entity owns vastly more XRP than are in circulation and can squash the price at their discretion. |
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One Little Weird Trick To Get Rich Quick  Yeah sounds like a thing for dumbasses for sure but I recognise the voice, it's Chris Dunn ( https://www.youtube.com/user/chrisdunntv) and what he said is true (check his bitcoin videos, check the dates). He predicted all the major moves of BTC since $1200 (yes, all the shorting too) and the fall of MtGox before they happened (yes I followed him since the beginning). No kidding. Check his old videos and their dates in his account for yourself. Regardless, I'm not sure the bear market is over just yet like adam suggests. if everyone listens to what he says and follows suit, its going to work. its kind of like a self fulfilling prophecy. plus he's got skills and knows to buy in a panic and stuff, so ya... not a bad person to follow for trades i guess. But wait, the youtube account that posted the video, is actually him? I don't wanna click malaware links. Have you joined yet? good question... doesn't he have his own youtube channel seems fishy... And you can't pay with btc, fuck giving this guy a CC. |
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And it is still dropping like a cherry. Don't forget on upswings people are leveraging this thing to the max. Wait until people start to leverage their shorts to the max. $100-200 incoming. Definitely more and more confident of this statement. I've been saying this for the last 6-7 months.
The problem with being a Bitcoin bear is what when you are right, it is so rare and you are so used to criticism that you gain hubris and gloat. This exposes your soft underbelly to the world. Don't forget that bulls have horns. How's that soft underbelly feeling today? |
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i love short squeezes  The squeeze hasn't even started yet, 11,227.90 BTC still lent out on bitfinex. Shorts increasing, now at 11,325.44 BTC. This is going to be fun  . A few bears got the memo: 10,444.71 BTC Still a lot of pain left to doll out, new highs on bitfinex as we speak. |
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you know what this is, right?  The answer is some kind of dinosaur, right? That's what I was thinking. |
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lol, wtf. the shorts on finex are still there in their full 11k beauty...?!? wouldn't have thought.
bears have gained hubris, time to slaughter |
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F*ck Bfx.
I just lost 2k USD to their circuit breaker system. It took 5 minutes for my market buy, 10 minutes for my market sell.
You should know the rules (if not, do your due diligence). Don't be an idiot and try to trade with market orders on a platform with a known circuit breaker. |
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i love short squeezes The squeeze hasn't even started yet, 11,227.90 BTC still lent out on bitfinex. Shorts increasing, now at 11,325.44 BTC. This is going to be fun . |
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i love short squeezes The squeeze hasn't even started yet, 11,227.90 BTC still lent out on bitfinex. |
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Nowhere near 20% huh? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-Pesa#Cost.2C_transaction_charges.2C_statisticsThe transaction charges range is from 66% down to 0.16% depending who is involved and the amount of money:
up to 66% for a transfer to an unregistered user
up to 30% for a transfer to a registered user
the lowest transfer rate is 0.16% to a registered user for KSH 70'000 (800 USD, 580 EUR)
the cost for withdrawing money from an M-Pesa agent reach from 20% max to min 0.47%
Look at the lower rates (0.16%) - between registered users. That is what most people pay. Pretty cheap compared to the volatility risk of BTC + exchange commisions. Right... because the average transaction is $800  . The lowest rates are only available to those sending large sums. |
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Unless you live in a US/Europe-centric bubble, the average Joe doesn't even have a credit/debit card. The average Joe however does have a cell phone, and many people even have smart phones. Other phone based payment systems in developing economies charge fees near 20%. Bitcoin will blow them out of the water, while also opening up new markets to existing online merchants. It will also reduce the barriers to entry for new online merchants that wish to serve these markets.
Many developing countries have relatively cheap domestic payment systems like Mpesa in East Africa or Alipay in China. I don't see bitcoin forming a threat to those systems. Fees are nowhere near 20% and you don't have to worry about the insane bitcoin volatility. Nowhere near 20% huh? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-Pesa#Cost.2C_transaction_charges.2C_statisticsThe transaction charges range is from 66% down to 0.16% depending who is involved and the amount of money:
up to 66% for a transfer to an unregistered user
up to 30% for a transfer to a registered user
the lowest transfer rate is 0.16% to a registered user for KSH 70'000 (800 USD, 580 EUR)
the cost for withdrawing money from an M-Pesa agent reach from 20% max to min 0.47%
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You need to ask yourself: What does the average joe need BTC for? How could he benefit from it in this point in time, beyond requiring a huge bet in the price skyrocketing in the next decades?
Unless you live in a US/Europe-centric bubble, the average Joe doesn't even have a credit/debit card. The average Joe however does have a cell phone, and many people even have smart phones. Other phone based payment systems in developing economies charge fees near 20%. Bitcoin will blow them out of the water, while also opening up new markets to existing online merchants. It will also reduce the barriers to entry for new online merchants that wish to serve these markets. |
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And it is still dropping like a cherry. Don't forget on upswings people are leveraging this thing to the max. Wait until people start to leverage their shorts to the max. $100-200 incoming. Definitely more and more confident of this statement. I've been saying this for the last 6-7 months.
The problem with being a Bitcoin bear is what when you are right, it is so rare and you are so used to criticism that you gain hubris and gloat. This exposes your soft underbelly to the world. Don't forget that bulls have horns. |
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c) They believe that transaction fees will have to go up, to be more expensive than current transaction costs in the bank system. This should be the result of miners overinvesting, this point of view is an instance of the labour theory of value, which is bogous.
Nice summary, thanks! I'd just like to point out that the real difference here is the lack of a captive market. If the banks overinvest in infrastructure, they can raise rates on their target audience. If miners overinvest, all they can do is drop out and take their losses. |
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Also one of the benefits of nxt is the that the code is so simple to read and update, while the community is very anarchic and believers in choice and freedom that just about any person could have easily made that modification and released a fork. We didn't need JL to offer it. This is a true benefit of nxt, not something that should destroy the basis for the entire project as your suggesting.
As I understand it, JL is a core dev right? He's probably also a major stakeholder. He's a leader and has special code writing privileges I'd reckon. He should have been more responsible. How? He could start by removing himself as the person responsible for releases through a system of deterministic builds and necessitating a form of developer consensus for official releases. Even if you trust him, he could be put under duress. He has enabled independent developers to fork snapshots of the code, but you need live repositories to have time to vet the code before release as well as to enable others to contribute their improvements back more easily. Yes, there are some extremist opinions flying around here, but there are some very large holes in the security model of the development process that would be addressed by a responsible leader of a crypto currency platform. Edit: stumbling around http://wiki.nxtcrypto.org/wiki/Nxt_Wiki I see this referring to PoS: The Proof-of-Stake algorithm is efficient enough to run on smartphones and small devices like the Raspberry Pi platform. In addition, this method effectively removes a large security risk inherent in most other coins: the issue of a 51% attack and many of the other vulnerabilities inherent to Proof-of-Work coins are gone.
51% attack isn't gone, it just moves from requiring scarce natural resources to requiring scarce tokens. Neither is easy to come by. My real problem with PoS though is that transaction fees are awarded to those who already have high stake rather than those who are providing hardware. Also, if they think a Raspberry Pi will be able to handle the throughput needed to scale to be bigger than bitcoin, they are crazy. Otherwise, they are simply dishonest. Granted, the wiki is probably not JL's responsibility, but it is indicative of the level of quality and attention to detail in the community as a whole, which is more damning than the failure of any one person. |
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Cue the integrated asic mining chip in personal computers as some premium feature. @hunyadi arf my bad but i guess my point is still valid, not going to argue for 2nm ^^ The development & running cost for sub20 nm is unlikely to ever ROI. Could be beautiful but not very scalable. Maybe in 10 years when intel releases their 7nm chip and the technology had matured enough?! Yes, I think 20nm will be the best chip in bitcoin mining for many years to come. Also, there wasn't even very big improvement in the performance compared to 28nm. once the chip set size becomes standardized, at least for a while, the prices for miners should come down. Exactly. Once they stop pushing to newer processes, they quit spending huge development effort on each run and just start rolling out the proven design. Marginal cost on just the chip should be around $5, but with the first few generations, they had to pay for development costs in one run. |
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