Welp, looks like I was wrong about how low we'd get.  I certainly didn't expect it to bubble up again this soon.

It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out.

So you want a bullish wavecount?

I present the most bullish count i find plausable:



What has always bothered me is that the rise from 0.x -> 32 was so much more profound than the rise from 32 to 266. I don't think they are on the same degree. In log space the 266 peak doesn't even reach up to the long term trend line extended from the 32 peak. That is not normal.

So i created a wave count which makes the 266 peak a subdivision on the road to 3.

This means we are on the 3rd gear (like masterluc suggests), but on a lower degree.

If this is actually the case, the upside and rise from here will be _enormous_.

Is there any evidence to back this up?

This is the orderbook for mt gox at the moment:


There are 20 million dollars in bids. There are ~8000 coins for sale. Wow. Never in the history of bitcoin have there been so many dollars chasing so few coins. Never before have there been such a huge discrepancy between buyers and sellers. The price went from 32 to 266 when there was a comparable amount of dollars chasing 150.000-200.000 coins. The current situation is much more profound. This is the case for all other traded currencies as well. There are extremely few coins for sale at these prices.

Dividing the bids on the asks (20.000.000 / 8000) would give an average price of 2500 per coin. That is more in the correct range comparable to the 0.x -> 32 rise. (I know this is a simplification, but it is just a thought exercise)

Does this fit with the current mood / sentiment?
Its always difficult to gauge but to me it "feels" like everybody is just waiting for the bubble to pop. The media is in frenzy that its a bubble, its almost given that this will end badly very shorty. Every analyst i see in MSM say its a bubble. (remember, this is just my impression, i might be wrong). When everybody say its a bubble, its not. The point you should be very afraid of is when nobody say its a bubble - that is the point where it is actually a bubble. Also (again this is my personal impression) bitcoiners are worried that it is a bubble right now. There is a polite avoidance of the subject, because its a uncomfortable subject to say the least. Talks about bubble is met with aggression. Prices rise on a wall of worry. To sum up i don't see the all engulfing euphoria you would expect at a peak yet, the mood is much more reserved and calm.

Little bit tipsy here from my cough medicine, but i would say this looks very positive for bitcoin in the short term. Would be surprised to see a "devestating" pullback now (lets hope i didn't just jinx it

When you trade, on any exchange, you trade virtual fiat and virtual coins.
With virtual fiat you can buy the lows, and then sell on highs, with virtual coins you can't.

I was expecting a price fall immediately after the news, instead its still going up even after the news. Is this because Chinese are too smart to use online wallets ?

me too, I settled on 4-6 years back then

made a poll "when parity" early this year. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=137014.0

$325.11. Sweet.

So, are there any bears left? When the last bear turns bull - that's the time to run, am I wrong? LOL

Although that said, I'm a long term bull... even short term I am pretty bullish. This "bubble" feels a bit different IMO.

And I sold a lot at $40.

~.~

I will never forgive myself.

was bitcoinica peer to peer lending?

Don't worry, BTCs will come in, miners have to pay their bills after all.

So, probably a stupid question to ask to all the bulls, but do you think there's a chance we see 300 today? Should I rebuy back at a loss?

I'm starting to freak out a little bit... Take a look at the asks in all markets, a few K's until 300, then NOTHING.
This means that if we break 300 and NO new BIG whales appear there is no support at the top, we could repeat what happened in april, more than doubling in one day (from 300) and then...

If you're anything like me, you read the article, read core dev's response, read the coding community's response, read the non-coding community's response to the coding community's response, looked at the market's response, determined that the authors of the paper were pretty much full of shit, and went on about your merry business.

Finally!

This means the market perception of Gox's failure likelihood has now reduced from 5-10% down to 0%, right? 

Forum has always been full of turbobulls.

They just got quiet for a while.

Hrm.

Their business practices kind of suck, but... well, they're the only way some people have to receive cash long-distance. I have art friends who get their grocery money from commissions, and they get paid by PayPal because it's easy for them to turn into cash in a shop. My brother doesn't have a bank account, so when he needs some dough fast to meet the rent, Western Union's really the only shop in town. These are not technical people. Sure, I could browbeat them to download Bitcoin and send them some sweet BTCs, but how are they going to quickly and painlessly turn that around into money they can use in their day-to-day purchases? That's still the missing bit. And it's because PayPal and WU have built an answer that they can get away with all the other balderdash.

I'm seriously looking forward to the day that you can walk into any given check-casher and get the local national currency for your bitcoins. It'll be a whole new world.

You seem to of missed this one sucks because for some reason I traded off what you were saying this time instead of my plan. Amateur mistake cost big.