Is MtGox working like a stock exchange? imho no. Because, unlike a stock exchange, MtGox has only one instrument to trade. Bitcoin.

Whereas a stock exchange does not really care whether Apple goes up and IBM goes down - and vice versa - MtGox has a vested interest in Bitcoin to go up. Because that's all they have. If Bitcoin is dead MtGox is dead. If Bitcoin is at 3$ they get 1.5cent fees. If Bitcoin is at 300$ they get 1.5$ fees.

Which makes me think: Does MtGox do some kind of, lets call it, price management. To keep the price up ...

erk: Date Registered: April 14, 2013, 11:37:45 PM
Henchman24: Date Registered: February 16, 2013, 07:04:35 AM

 

Do you have any proof for this?

That's so 1990's ... boring.

Yes, that too.

I mean big companies, like Intel, spend a lot of time for stability- and long-term tests. BFL barely managed to get a prototype running. And now they started to ship those prototypes.

Them über-cocky BFL Cowboys ...

That's what Josh said -> Fiction.

Reality:

So in August we will have many of those:

Nice "Butterfly Labs" logo on the boxes. It will make it easy for thieves to pick out the money machines.

Josh said they would ship in "neutral" brown boxes with no logos. Oh well, another one of Josh's bogus messages ...

I'm looking forward to the next couple of months for the forum to be full of messages like this: "help!!!!!!!!!! my BFL shipment got lost!!!!!!!!!!!".

I read this:


So it seems they manage to ship 10-20 units a day. Not exactly the 400 per day that Josh predicted, but hey, it's Bunch of Failing Losers. What could you expect?  

I hope those guys that ordered in 2013 bring a lot of patience, because it might be 2014 when they finally hold their Jalapenos in hands.

It seems payouts for TRC are not working. I'm well over 5 TRC and no payouts.

This is such a joke! According to Josh PCB redesign is no big deal. Should be done in 2 days.

Now, 3 weeks later, we still have to wait one more week for PCBs.

2 days became 4 weeks. (1 BFL day = 14 Earth days).

Two Jalapenos a day won't have that much influence on difficulty

Don't worry. You'll be fine.

As long as you didn't order a Mini Rig.
Or a Single SC.
Or a Little Single SC.
Or a Jalapeno after July 2012.

Difficulty will double tomorrow. So it should be more like 35LTC FOR 1000FC

Any news from Helveticoin?

Yes it will be interesting to see how many Earth days a Josh day will have (Josh said they'll ship 400 units a day). I assume that's like 20 Earth days  

1, 2, 3 ... 400! Yep, I count 400 per day as Josh said 

Hope they change the packing to something more "neutral" - otherwise those money machines will "get lost" in post offices like crazy.

wtf  

http://allchains.info/

So in August we will have many of those:

I would like to discuss the probability of Butterfly Labs running out of money.

This would have serious implications:
- no more refunds
- no ASIC products
- no support for FGPA products

I don't know when their Venture Capital partners put an end to it (they surely won't wait forever to see a return on invest), so this discussion will be solely about pre order money.

While watching Butterfly Labs Company Video I was thinking: What are those employes actually doing? Besides looking busy on the soldering stations for the video and moving (empty?) boxes around with forklifters ...

6 months have passed since BFLs estimated ASIC shipping date (October 2012) and they have not shipped as single ASIC product to one of their customers. What did BFL workers do all day long in the last 6 month?
Labor costs must be a huge cash burner for BFL.

Yesterday BFL has finally managed to ship something that's supposed to be a Jalapeno to a technical reviewer: BFL Jalapeno Unboxing and Demo. Although it's not passively cooled any more and needs way more than the 5 Watt it was originally designed for.

It seems BFL simply took a Single SC casing, heatsink and fan for this Jalapeno2.0 thingy. While watching this video I noticed how incredibly loud the fan was. It seems to be running at maximum speed. Which means it's barely able to handle the 30 Watt of this device.

A few calculations: 5.5GHs at 30 Watt means:
- Jalapeno: 5.5GH/s at 30 Watt
- Little Single SC: 30GH/s at 163 Watt
- Single SC: 60GH/s at 327 Watt
- Mini Rig SC: 1500GH/s at 8181 Watt (!!!)

If the fan/heatsink is barely able to handle 30 Watt, how is it supposed to handle 163 or 327 Watt? No way in hell can it do that!

Which means, besides the Mini Rig Casings, BFL can also throw away all their Single and Little Single casings, PCBs, fans and heatsinks. Or maybe reuse a few of them for the "new" Jalapeno2.0.

Which means: More (of our pre order) money down the drain ...

My best guess is that BFL starts shipping what they have: Jalapenos. And only Jalapenos. Which will leave lots of angry Single, Little Single and Mini Rig customers behind.

I highly doubt they can manage to ship 400 units a day (Josh brought that number up) - I fear it will be more like 40 per day. Or 4 ;-)

Summarized:
- lots of angry Single, Little Single and Mini Rig customers want a refund: negative cashflow
- existing Jalapeno customers get their products: negative cashflow (because BFL already has the pre order money, but has to pay labor costs)
- a few new Jalapeno customers: positive cashflow

But will that be enough for BFL to survive?
What do you think?

Disclaimer: All this is of course speculation, based on the little facts that are available from BFL.