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661  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 30, 2014, 03:56:34 PM

Don't worry  Wink  Cool



Sure, but percent change from 1 year prior is still well below historical norms.


If you want to look at the data in other ways, you can play with the view here: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDO

Debt growth has slowed and remains slow.  Everything will look exponential if you look at it in nominal terms because the dollar has devalued exponentially.
662  Economy / Speculation / Re: Presenting the 670-day Bitcoin price cycle on: July 30, 2014, 03:44:13 PM
Either everybody buys before the next bubble in anticipation of one -> bubble starts too early
Either everybody waits until the bubble begins in anticipation of one -> bubble starts too late

Either way it won't happen when it's expected and you should have bought before it actually happens.

Or maybe, just maybe, the hundreds of thousands of individual actors with different priorities, beliefs, and understanding will somehow manage to behave differently from each other and the two camps cancel each other out, starting the bubble right on time.
663  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is wobber wrong? on: July 18, 2014, 08:58:01 PM
Any idea what the "minimum charge" for credit card companies are? I know its fixed amount plus % ... what's the fixed amount? For small txns bitcoin could potentially make a big difference.

Large companies do authorizations (which are free) and then submit the actual transactions as batches, so they spread the fixed amount across many transactions.  That fixed amount is up to 30 cents, but can be less when you have the volume to negotiate.
664  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why? I just don't understand why! on: July 18, 2014, 01:21:41 PM
Can you give an example of a feature that has been proven by an altcoin that has not been included in Bitcoin?
665  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 18, 2014, 01:02:14 PM
Whats the call for today boys and girls. We looking green or red on the day??? Who's up for some day trading.

Just based on my gut reaction to the charts on several timeframes, I would say 40% up, 50% sideways (within 0.5 or maybe 1% of current), 10% down.
666  Economy / Speculation / Re: The day that could make us all millionaires! on: July 18, 2014, 12:58:02 PM
"dogecoin goes for 1 dollar,"

Someone drank the special special koolaid today.

But damn do I hope he's right.  I still have 14k from a few days of GPU mining back when it first came out.
667  Economy / Speculation / Re: How was this not mentioned.. on: July 18, 2014, 12:52:13 PM
When bitcoin first rolled out it was 4 decimal places.  Back in 2011 they decided that 8 were needed and it came out as part of a core update. 

Just to set the record straight, this never happened.  The first commit, tagged 4405b and dated 2009-08-29 has this on line 18 of main.h:
Code:
static const int64 COIN = 100000000;

COIN is the divisor for converting satoshis to BTC.

Bitcoin has always had 8 decimal places.
668  Economy / Speculation / Re: Could Bitcoin's market cap stall at $8 billion forever? on: July 18, 2014, 12:32:42 PM
Bitcoin's market cap is often compared to that of companies like Facebook and Apple. Pushing this company analogy further, isn't it true that many companies have had relatively stable market caps for years to decades? Microsoft's market cap barely changed between 2000 and now. Sony's market cap has been going sideways since 2002. Would it be possible for Bitcoin's market cap to stop growing and stay at the present level forever?

Bitcoin would still continue to exist as an alternative currency for the Internet, of course. And with a stable value, it would be a positive thing in terms of its use as a currency and a store of value.

they're market caps stagnated because of a competitive force taking market share. in 2000 apple made its triumphant comeback with the iPod and then the iPhone. microsoft had nothing to compete. bitcoin has no real competition(no alt coins are not competitive with bitcoin)


Good point.  Could Bitcoin's market cap stall?  Absolutely.  Will it?  Doubtful.
669  Economy / Speculation / Re: How was this not mentioned.. on: July 18, 2014, 03:33:17 AM

Bitcoin is only divisible to 8 decimal places without a hard fork.  Hard forks are very difficult to orchestrate, so although extending the number of decimal places is technical feasible, it will be difficult in practice and will never happen before it is agreed to be an absolute necessity.

When bitcoin first rolled out it was 4 decimal places.  Back in 2011 they decided that 8 were needed and it came out as part of a core update.  Similar thing with the view on "dust" last year.  Those sorts of updates are pretty minimal and don't require a big change.  Changing the hashing algorithm or moving to PoS or something would be a big deal.  So if more than 8 decimal places are required, I think it will happen without causing any issues.  

If required, yes.  But if you try to do it before there is consensus that it is necessary you will end up with two blockchains each claiming to be Bitcoin.  Such is the case any time you try to change the rules in a way that is incompatible with older versions of the software.  The "dust" changes were merely parameter adjustments.  Dust is still valid and is included by some miners, but most choose to filter it.  So not really that similar.  Also, you're full of shit because I was 0.5% of the hashpower in 2010 and at that time we had 8 decimal places.  It might have been 4 in a very early version, but certainly not in 2011.

True, there's always a chance that not all people will choose to play by the new rules causing a fork - I'm just suggesting that adding a few more decimal places should the need arise is not something that I can see many (any?) people rebelling against, so I am going to guess it would not be hard to roll out.

I might very well be wrong about the date of the change - I first learned of Bitcoin back in 2011, and I remember the change to 8 places, so I assumed it was then, however if this is wrong, then my bad.

Well, just off the top of my head, how about the fact that increasing the number of decimal places means that you have to change the value field on every txout to something larger than the current 8 bytes.  This increases transaction size, which means that without also increasing block size, you are decreasing transaction throughput of the network.  Why would a miner want to increase storage costs, decrease throughput, all while taking in less fees (because of less transactions)?  I assume if we are at the point where 8 decimals isn't enough, we are also pushing the limits on throughput, but blocksize is an entirely different can of worms.
670  Economy / Speculation / Re: google trends is showing increased interest on: July 17, 2014, 07:11:25 PM
Google trends is a shitty short term indicator for bitcoin. In the bearish month April there were a lot more searches for bitcoin than in the bullish period of late May & early June.

It is a lagging indicator for sure, although the similarity between May/June/July of 2013, marked at point 'C' to May/June/July(partial) of 2014 is interesting:



Again this is almost entirely driven by price, but this chart does reflect the same feeling I had last year at this time that BTC is being oddly quiet.  The difference is this year it's been quiet with almost entirely good news, consistently.

This year has been filled with good news, but not huge news that arrive to the general public. It seems like a lot of news for us who read them everyday, but the average joe who reads the newspaper may not have read the word bitcoin this year (except maybe with the negative mtGox news).


This is a great point, and absolutely true - this is exactly the kind of news that represents a strengthening of the underlying infrastructure that would likely also lend support to a higher value as well once some significant impetus comes along to start a significant breakout upwards.


Traditionally, that impetus has been an overaction to bad news that triggers a big sell off that is then completely erased by steady buying pressure.  If the rocket tries to take off now, everybody will jump right in because of the excessively positive sentiment.  If there is some negative news that brings doubt, the rocket ignition engineers will be able to get all the coins they want at a reasonable price before the herd catches on.
671  Economy / Speculation / Re: A big crash is coming on: July 17, 2014, 05:54:16 PM
You are clearly new here.  This forum has always had a large population of retards.  By the way, filt isn't a word.  You are looking for filled.
I digged this forum deep enough to tell you that this forum hasn't had a large population of retards, you shoud know with youre 900+ posts... you sound like a newbie and acting like Falllling only a bit smarter.



Roll Eyes

BTW, I have 7265 posts, before this one.  Activity != post count.  And this is my second account.  Complaining about trolls is just as unproductive as trolling.  In fact, it is reactions like yours that motivate them to keep going.  But keep up the whining and ad hominems, it really makes you look like a valuable member of the community.

Also, learn to quote properly.
672  Economy / Speculation / Re: A big crash is coming on: July 17, 2014, 04:44:19 PM
A stock market crash may be coming. It will be very interesting to see how bitcoin does during a stock market crash.

Coming when?


Things look good for today's downdraft to follow through next week.  The only wrench in the works is that interest rates are falling along with stocks, which gives the Fed more ammo to prop things up.
673  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 17, 2014, 04:39:07 PM
...
I'm not really sure how it's a pyramid or inverted/reverse pyramid scheme, either.  Could you please explain?
...

There's more important stuff going on at the mo but whatever. In a pyramid lots of people lose out and a small number gain so in a reverse pyramid a small number lose out to the gain of many.

Why not just call it a wealth distribution mechanism?
674  Economy / Economics / Re: The light bulb conspiracy. Planned obsolescence. on: July 17, 2014, 04:36:32 PM
[...]

if the leasing model spreads more, and recycling tech as mentioned becomes more sophisticated, competition will drive the fees down.

Unless intellectual property laws are used to restrict supply by only allowing one vendor.
675  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: July 17, 2014, 04:25:38 PM
> but I don't see anyone who is close enough yet.

BRICS + Iran and Iraq  possibly France and others in Europe may fall in line

I agree these are the countries that are getting there.... but China is still too dependent on the US markets.  And of the BRICS, China is the cornerstone.
676  Economy / Speculation / Re: A big crash is coming on: July 17, 2014, 04:03:52 PM
To Fallling;

Get lost you nab, i asked to remove you from this forum, you keep talking BS over and over, GTFO of this forum you idiot.

You seem to be a bit nervous, in almost the same manner as so many ultra-uber-it-will-rise-at-any-moment bulls. Or why can't you bear a plain troll?

Calm down and let him post. You like some Benzodiazepine?

chuck some more gas on the fire... Poor guy is having a heart attack.

In the past months more idiots like you join this forum, for what? to flame and to have a nice troll time.

I thought this is a pro site for Bitcoiners but its getting filt with retards.

You are clearly new here.  This forum has always had a large population of retards.  By the way, filt isn't a word.  You are looking for filled.
677  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: July 17, 2014, 04:01:47 PM
Third world continue filling up their coffers with dollars:

"Reserves Break $3 Trillion Mark in Emerging Markets"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-17/reserves-break-3-trillion-mark-in-emerging-markets.html
I wouldn't call SK 3rd world..

But it's the cost of doing business in the current $USD centered world. Wait until they have other options...chickens($) come home to roost.

it's always amazed me that foreigners would plow so much back into UST's for such an indebted nation as the US.  i understand it at one level since we are the world's largest economy with the largest consumer base and military, but come on.  when does it all end?  i guess it makes sense to debt enslave America.  altho, i'm sure we'll default.  how they don't get this is beyond me. 

imo, the end game is if and when the UST market cracks.  that's the big kahuna for the US. 

If they let interest rates rise, then the Fed will have a harder time propping up everything else.  Until they withdrawal from stocks they have to support bonds so the Fed can act as a force multiplier.
678  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: July 17, 2014, 03:56:06 PM
Third world continue filling up their coffers with dollars:

"Reserves Break $3 Trillion Mark in Emerging Markets"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-17/reserves-break-3-trillion-mark-in-emerging-markets.html
I wouldn't call SK 3rd world..

But it's the cost of doing business in the current $USD centered world. Wait until they have other options...chickens($) come home to roost.

Exactly, we still have to wait because nobody wants to bankrupt half their export business.  Demand needs better global distribution before the transition can be made.  Yes there are great costs to continuing to do business this way, but the costs are less than the costs of a transition at the moment.  Of course, once one big player makes the move the cost of continuing the game will go up for everyone else and the dominoes will start to fall.  They are all moving in that direction, but I don't see anyone who is close enough yet.
679  Economy / Speculation / Re: NY BITCOIN LICENSE REGULATIONS ARE HERE on: July 17, 2014, 03:40:39 PM
You can't show us a little of what your link is? I don't click on random pdf files.

It's a .gov site.

Right, because we should trust every government employee that can upload to a webserver Roll Eyes.

Do you have any idea how many government workers there are out there who know nothing about computer security?  Even without a malicious actor, the PDF could become infected if the producer's PC was infected.  As someone who did tech support for many government entities back in the day, I can assure you that government workers frequently manage to infect their computers.  Trusting it just because it is from a .gov site is foolish.
680  Bitcoin / Press / Re: MMA Fighter Phil Baroni to Promote Bitcoin on Spike TV on: July 17, 2014, 12:54:29 PM
Is Spike TV a big deal in the US?

I thought it was pretty cool when I was 17.  I haven't watched it in 10 years.
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