hopefully the shorts get squeezed soon...not even enough in the orderbook on bfx to close them all...
if we go up it could get really quick
I don´t think this is going to happen as there are even more longs open. With USD 19 mln open this translates at current prices to more than 40.000 BTC (Not taking long positions in LTC into consideration). Bid side is only 26.000 coins to EUR 50.... Some will equal each other out, but then there will be still more longs to bring us rather down... Keep in mind, many of those longs are the bids at 452 and below; compare the order books at Stamp and Bfx. Even in this thread, people are talking about reserving 30 day swaps because the rate is so low. That shows up as long swaps, even if no coins have been purchased. I really, really, can't imagine anyone opening a new short when they could be squeezed so easily with nowhere to dump their position. If a squeeze starts, they will be competing with me and everyone else here to buy. 9400 coins to $4800, 10,200 10,314 shorts open....let that sink in. And then think about the whale that dumped 7k coins last month to squeeze the longs. So this is clear: I hope no one changes their short position. This could be unbelievably fun. +1 The price might fall to 430-450$ before and the shorts might even increase to 12-15000 BTC, but the next big move will definitely be a short squeeze. It´s written all over the place. It does look like shorts are overextending themselves. They're starting to behave like the maniac margin bulls did. |
|
|
|
I wonder if support at 440$ will hold for now, or the dumpers will cut through it like a hot knife through butter.  My guesstimated bottom for this round of drops is about 360$, but it will take some time to get there. 440$ held back then, but now the asks on Bitstamp are a bit higher than in April, when price dropped to 340$. People don't understand the ramifications of this. |
|
|
|
... going to continue to put upward BTC price pressures because they are going to want to get their money back and they are going to want to make a hefty profit, too.
The miners want the most they could get for their coin, regardless of how badly they need the money or what they paid for their gear. The buyers want to pay the least for their coin, again regardless of all that stuff. Absolutely no more pressure if the miners are mining at a loss. A pawn shop won't pay you more for your wedding ring just because you *really* need the money. It's likely to pay you less. I think his point was that any miner who pays more for the kit than will allow for a positive ROI is obviously not under pressure to sell. They are happy to pay above market for future bitcoin. They are clearly not requiring a positive return, so they must be finding utility in other factors. They are clearly very interested in acquiring bitcoin, and there is no reason to think they will sell them, unless perhaps to introduce others to their hobby. Your assumption is that their costs are higher than BTC cost. Why do you think so? I'd think the ones who are adding this enormous hashrate actually have a way of making profits, perhaps they have insanely cheap and efficient hardware. |
|
|
|
Anyhow, your last sentence seems to be referring to absolutes and blacks and whites and seem to be referring to a prediction of a future that has NOT yet occurred and your description of such future seems a little crazy from my perspective at the moment.
It's not a prediction, it's a mental attitude. All my high risks investments are totally worthless. Until I come to the point where I start recalculating the value, most times... ...to make it worthless for another round. So you seem to be suggesting that you are employing a psychological tool to NOT invest more into BTC than you can afford to lose.. and then to NOT overly focus on whether your BTC portfolio is in the black or red.. something like that? He's suggesting not to be too much of an optimist so that you can stand a storm psychologically. You know, the 10k by July kind that was bound to disappoint. High expectations, high disappointment. |
|
|
|
OK bears, you did it. Whats next?
Now they will try to take the price down. And then they try to take the price down. Preferably till Bitcoin has become completely worthless and then they will move to the next thing they can destroy out of greed. So you're not greedy, whining because the price doesn't move up and make you money?  |
|
|
|
|
Let us take it for granted that there is a concerted manipulation effort to drive the price lower.
What knowledge do you draw from this fact? How does it help your trading?
If the manipulator is able to achieve his desires with a minimum of resources, and there is no opposition to him, be it from opposed manipulation or natural buying, then what does it tell you about the state of this market?
|
|
|
|
So Coinbase is the manipulator?  |
|
|
|
How disappointing. Turns out the constant "cheap coins" yellers have no money after all with which to buy a bounce.  |
|
|
|
|
Für mich klingt das so, als wüssten die gar nix außer dass Willy wahrscheinlich was mit dem Diebstahl zu tun hat. Die wissen ja nicht, wo das Geld hin ist, höchstens, wie es verschwunden ist.
|
|
|
|
We are Bulllish --> Says the Bear Club Exactly. Permabears are bullish since yesterday while permabulls are bearish. So the turn (short-term) was obvious. |
|
|
|
Hogs gettin' hoggy. Seriously, we had two flash crashes on separate exchanges inside the same week. It's probably going to hit 490, but we aren't breaking 500 tonight and we'll probably swing down a few more times.
how low do you think we'll go? We may have hit the actual low, but it's crazy to think we won't retest it. Who knows, maybe I'm wrong and am missing out on an opportunity. My thought is this -- too much damage done this week to Bitcoin's brand... too much happened. At the same time, the damage wasn't so catastrophic -- like a drop to the 200s or 300s -- where you'd say this is clearly it. So, with that fact pattern... can't imagine we wouldn't be testing the lows today. Seems like a giant bull trap. Stop doing drugs, buy BTC , sleep. It's just typical bear trolls trying to talk the price down. Should have listened to fonzie. |
|
|
|
Daily candle closed. Daily RSI positive divergence confirmed. Should help the bounce. I don't think we will see sub-400 again.
 |
|
|
|
btc-e.... what are you doing!?!?
just like when it fell from $1000 look whos right there manipulating the books!!!  $250 bets? hmmmm They are pretty steady calling bull---- on the rest of the market. Anyhow, one of two things will happen... either Bitfinex will flash crash and we'll see new lows OR... we'll stop short around $445 and then get a bounce back. We can't get a true bounce, though, until we confirm a bottom. Right now, the matter is borderline untradeable. I am temporarily taking my ball and going home. I got whipsawed enough over the past couple of days. I'll buy back in when I am not so much out of my depth (and I realize that this is a surefire sign of capitulation which means I should do the opposite... except I thought the same thing several times this week). Good luck. oh no, not you too... Don't worry, me and fonzie are still here. |
|
|
|
Choo Choo you beartards!
To the Sun! |
|
|
|
Huobi srsly? Dump a few thousand, after that 0.1 orders for 10+minutes?
If the Chinaman doesn't lead, eventually he will be led. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
