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1221  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2014, 11:16:22 PM
gmaxwell has done a blockchain analysis and wasn't able to find out, so I expect there is no way to know for anyone but MtGox management. If an attacker has exploited it only in recent weeks, then the upper limit was about 70k BTC (such a loss they could likely stomach with what I believe is a 6 digit BTC reserve of their own though). If it was really exploited for a long time, then who knows, it depends solely on how MtGox has checked cold storage funds against the user balances and how early they noticed a difference.

Another thing to consider is that there is currently still inflow and outflow in fiat money from MtGox. Inflow any currency/deposit method and outflow is limited to SEPA/JPY, severely limited also in value as well as time. It could well be that MtGox is receiving a net inflow of funds and thus, if it operates a fractional reserve, it would serve to lower the percentage of the missing reserve.
1222  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2014, 11:05:53 PM
Am I the only one who noticed that the Gox bottom really does look like an ass?
It does indeed look like a classic double bottom, though I don't dare predict anything about MtGox because I don't understand the reason for the fall's magnitude in the first place (you can look up my thinking two posts ago) and there have been a few promising bottoms that failed. But it's possible that double digit is a psychologically especially strong support here, along with the fact that we've bounced off the long-term lower log support trendline.

My internet connection is fucked for the time being, so I am using the internet with bare minimum, it's a shame I didn't get to see the MtGox ramp on clarkmoody.
1223  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2014, 10:56:21 PM
wind, the rise was on the same air that the fall was on. There are good arguments for why a a goxBTC is worth much more than just 20-25% of a goxUSD at real market USD/BTC rates (of course, this factor could change to the downside as well …). Furthermore, Emptygox can come out of their holes anytime and say or do something unexpected which even if it turns out hot air as well can do a lot.

So, I wouldn't unconditionally recommend what you said, but it is certainly worth thinking about.
1224  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2014, 10:49:42 PM
This has nothing to do with Bitcoin withdrawals, it's only to do with transfering goxBTC ownership which you can do on MtGox, as you can "withdraw" to an internal MtGox deposit address that somebody else holds.
1225  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2014, 10:41:07 PM
Really, smoothie? In the past few days, the following arbitrage opportunity has emerged: Send money to MtGox, buy up goxBTC, sell goxBTC at the going rate, liquidate the realBTC elsewhere => profit. If you can do it in a reasonable timeframe, then it's pretty good.
1226  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2014, 10:37:59 PM
I forgot to mention one thing: MtGox has earned over 6k BTC the past two weeks. Assuming they lost an amount of user deposits, then their liabilities keep shrinking over time as long as people trade maniacally on high volume. Pretty funny.
1227  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2014, 10:27:42 PM
A few observations with regards to goxUSD/goxBTC prices:

1) Even though the price has rallied, they are still nowhere reflective of the rates on bitcoinbuilder times bitstamp prices which should imply a price of currently perhaps 300.

2) emptygoxUSD haven't been able to be withdrawn since May or June 2013. The prospects for bitcoin withdrawals to be reopened, should Emptygox become functional again, should serve to increase the value of goxBTC vs. goxUSD because only they would be able to get out.

3) goxBTC are literally the only asset on MtGox that can be liquidated instantly via bitcoinbuilder even if you have to take a large haircut. This fundamental advantage stems from the fact that only the ownership of goxBTC can be transferred and thus sold, but not so for goxUSD.

All in all, it was probably pretty idiotic to value goxUSD 4-5x higher than mtgoxBTC for the sole reason of having a slightly easier time to sue, regardless of how their solvency stands.

I've said some of this before, but you guys were too busy reading Reddit and selling to me. Cheesy
1228  Economy / Speculation / Re: The End of Bitcoin as a speculative Investment on: February 21, 2014, 06:28:15 AM
Are you kidding me? This has all happened before! It will all happen again!

Look at the damn history.
1229  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 21, 2014, 01:05:45 AM
CCMF
1230  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2014, 11:29:49 AM
Blame it on MtGox! Blame it on MtGox! Blame it on MtGox!  Cheesy
1231  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2014, 07:14:48 AM
I wonder if this is partly due to some sellers not appreciating what time it is in Tokyo -- enough folks here struggle with time zones -- and thinking Thursday has passed with no announcement.  

Sure. Fear. Misinformation. Take your pick.
I'll have the double digits with a frappuccino please.
1232  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2014, 07:07:06 AM
And still Bitstamp is following. Not magnitude, but the direction.
1233  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2014, 06:55:16 AM
Double digits might be reality on trollgox soon. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
1234  Other / Meta / Re: Questions to theymos about the $1,000,000 forum software project on: February 17, 2014, 03:47:39 AM
Where is it apparent that the BTC I donated are explicitely for the purpose of creating a new forum? Theymos is free to make use of the funds as he best sees fit, in my view.

He asked for funds to make a new forum, if you wanted to just give funds to theymos, why not do it directly? Why send it to the new forum fund pile?


Source?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=38071.0
https://bitcointalk.org/donate.html

contain nothing of what you say.
1235  Other / Meta / Re: Questions to theymos about the $1,000,000 forum software project on: February 17, 2014, 02:25:58 AM
Where is it apparent that the BTC I donated are explicitely for the purpose of creating a new forum? Theymos is free to make use of the funds as he best sees fit, in my view.
1236  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2014, 01:50:28 AM
This is exactly what I was talking about in my other thread "the irony of a decentralized currency with a development team" but they don't get it and insist that "open source" keeps everything in check. Well the fact is that open source is irrelevant to the structure of the people who are in control on a minute-to-minute basis. The hard fork being pushed in a matter of hours proves this. There isn't enough time for a big open source community review of the code and nobody has time to do a full audit of the code in an hour. There are people, in control.
Congrats my friend, seriously. I remember that thread. You grasp what the Bitcoin cultists do not.

However, a certain degree of centralization is useful as we have seen, and I don't think it is a fundamental concern except in the very, very long term. Still, it is good to be aware of it.
1237  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who is the dumper on mtgox ? on: February 17, 2014, 01:45:31 AM
efarah, your post is a good contrarian indicator.
Just 2 weeks ago there were over 30 million $ on the bid sum. Now it's below 5 million, but not much has left MtGox.
After the panic subsides, most of that fiat will be back, buying cheap bitcoins.
Indeed. Remember that USD cannot flee the exchange …  Gee, I wonder what will happen should BTC withdrawals come back. Cheesy Cheesy

It can go out as EUR or JPY.
Both are delayed by 4-5 weeks and have extreme constraints in daily output for the whole exchange. For SEPA, it is 100k EUR. For JPY it is 100 million yen, but according to Mark Karpeles, there is an additional bottleneck because JPY have to be converted. Otherwise there likely wouldn't be this JPY delay in the first place.

You will never empty the exchange with the current state of withdrawal methods in less than say a year.
1238  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2014, 01:39:54 AM
How is it that this one douchebag has controlled the entire btc market for years. btc is supposed to be decentralized.
Bitcoin isn't all that decentralized, there's a nice incestuous cabale of developers, mining pool operators and exchange operators. In March 2013, the former two chose one particular hard fork and managed to make it the reality within hours by virtue of mining majority.
1239  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2014, 01:35:03 AM
I cannot believe stamp is just following gox like this. This is pissing me off. I thought this was over.
1240  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2014, 12:58:15 AM
While we wait for the shitstorm, enjoy this oddly satisfying gif

Mesmerizing. Shocked
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