Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

...
The current prices are indicating that only the true believers are going to stay into the game.
...

This is very bearish, because bitcoin price needs new bagholders, with plenty of fiat and willing to buy high.
True believers have millions of bitcoins, and a fair amount of fiat, but way to little fiat to pump the price into another mania.

Very bad logic, and even inaccurate factual renditions.  It is pretty likely that few people or entities hold more than 100k coins.... you may have meant millions of dollars in bitcoins rather than millions of bitcoin.. because I believe the largest holder is satoshi (or at least the coins attributed to him of a little less than 1 million)... there is NOT enuff coins to go around for others to hold millions.

Surely people will hesitate to buy while the price seems to be going down... but once the trend reverses (and it will reverse someday - hopefully soon), then there will be buyers... The only problem is if the price goes (or stays) so low as to undermine confidence in BTC, then that would be another story..  To me, BTC prices and decline in prices seems quite far from the point to irreversibly undermine confidence in BTC....   In the coming months, we will see how these prices and perceived trends evolve, though.

[aminorex]

... going to continue to put upward BTC price pressures because they are going to want to get their money back and they are going to want to make a hefty profit, too.

The miners want the most they could get for their coin, regardless of how badly they need the money or what they paid for their gear.  The buyers want to pay the least for their coin, again regardless of all that stuff.  Absolutely no more pressure if the miners are mining at a loss.
A pawn shop won't pay you more for your wedding ring just because you *really* need the money.  It's likely to pay you less.

I think his point was that any miner who pays more for the kit than will allow for a positive ROI is obviously not under pressure to sell.  They are happy to pay above market for future bitcoin. They are clearly not requiring a positive return, so they must be finding utility in other factors.  They are clearly very interested in acquiring bitcoin, and there is no reason to think they will sell them, unless perhaps to introduce others to their hobby.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[N12]

... going to continue to put upward BTC price pressures because they are going to want to get their money back and they are going to want to make a hefty profit, too.

The miners want the most they could get for their coin, regardless of how badly they need the money or what they paid for their gear.  The buyers want to pay the least for their coin, again regardless of all that stuff.  Absolutely no more pressure if the miners are mining at a loss.
A pawn shop won't pay you more for your wedding ring just because you *really* need the money.  It's likely to pay you less.

I think his point was that any miner who pays more for the kit than will allow for a positive ROI is obviously not under pressure to sell.  They are happy to pay above market for future bitcoin. They are clearly not requiring a positive return, so they must be finding utility in other factors.  They are clearly very interested in acquiring bitcoin, and there is no reason to think they will sell them, unless perhaps to introduce others to their hobby.

Your assumption is that their costs are higher than BTC cost. Why do you think so? I'd think the ones who are adding this enormous hashrate actually have a way of making profits, perhaps they have insanely cheap and efficient hardware.

[JorgeStolfi]

2014! Year of bitcoin!

So who's first to admit that they were completely, utterly wrong?

A prudent bear will wait until 2015-01-01 to ask that question. 

[JorgeStolfi]

Unlike Bitcoin hodlers, they plan to *sell* their shares if the market's right.  If they have no plans to sell in your hypothetical, then you have a valid question--what the hell are they doing?

Collectig dividends (although Apple has been notorious for holding back dividends as reinvestment and cash reserves, IIRC).

[BitAddict]

ripple is the future, not bitcoin, you're all fools !!!

Glad to see you're well.
I'll never forget the crash after your last recommendation.
What do you say to the total inflation in ripple (fixed supply untill it's not)

Now trading at $0.005. How much was it trading before total inflation?
Just wanted to know. Thanks

[wachtwoord]

Unlike Bitcoin hodlers, they plan to *sell* their shares if the market's right.  If they have no plans to sell in your hypothetical, then you have a valid question--what the hell are they doing?

Collectig dividends (although Apple has been notorious for holding back dividends as reinvestment and cash reserves, IIRC).

The are paying a dividend now.

[JayJuanGee]

I don't know anyone who owns a single satoshi anymore.  All 5 of my friends have sold and won't be back when they saw they were down $60-120/coin, somewhere around $50k in investors.  The 2 guys who used to talk to me about btc think I am trying to scam them.  My neighbor used btc to get a discount on a new laptop; he bought them literally at the last possible second so that they price would not drop during the time that they were in his address.

There are 3 main classes of btc owners, IMO:
- the majority with less than 5 coins
- the middle with 5-300 coins
- the bigger guys

These drops are not about btc value.  They are not about price discovery.  It has nothing to do with TA.  It is just the big guys taking money from the smaller guys.  I have spent 7 months staring at the charts and watching buy/sells scroll buy.  Every drop is started by 200, 250, 300, 350 coins market sells, followed by more large sells, then the rest with 1-10 coins trying frantically not to lose money (which of course the always do).  The big guys have their buy orders a few percent off the top, buy back in.  Rinse and repeat day after day, as the price drops day after day, so the big guys can make their easy profits.  And then defend the 7k dump on Bitfinex as natural market movement.  And defend the big dump on BTC-e a few days later as a natural market movement.  And complain that people refuse to buy the price up for your next dump.

We are not in a bear market.  We are in a market where the big guys make more money on dumps than price increases.  And dumps are SO much easier.

The smug big guys in this thread like to say we are in accumulation phase.  No, we aren't.  We are in the "take the newbies' money" stage.  They are also the guys who encourage trading, instead of holding.  See, they don't make money from you when you only hold your coins, they need you on an exchange.  Goldman, etc., are replaced by anyone who holds 1 or 2k coins and can initiate dumps or walls.

Some of the big guys here are talking about $300 coins.  Good luck with that, I hope you achieve it.  Everyone except you will have sold and left btc.  Everyone else will have lost half their money and left the technology for good.  You will likely get $50, $25, $10, $1 coins, too.  A Pyrrhic victory.

This short term thinking drives the price down, hinders new adoption, and drives out anyone who has adopted recently.  Remember that when you see the charts that say btc adoption has stagnated: why would the average person hold coins that have dropped over 20% in the last 2 months and 60% in 9 months, for exactly no reason?  Why would a newbie even CONSIDER buying btc when he is guaranteed to lose money?

I am thinking about dropping out of trading myself.  I will keep a percentage of my coins in a cold wallet, sell the rest.  This crap happening in the market is unbearable.  I would rather deal with wallet street than bitcoin markets.

And no, I haven't lost coins trading.  That is only because my trades rarely last over an hour.

Don't be stupid and just hold. This is a necessary test anyway as people who sell now would have lost the wealth at some point anyway. A fool and his money are soon parted (Btw I don't trade. At all)

Yeah, I agree!!!   Sandia seems to have made a lot of stupid assumptions and misdescriptions of the facts and bitcoin dynamics.  It is hardly even worth responding to stupid-ass ideas about selling now and that BTC is doomed... blah blah blah..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[spooderman]

Guys we're gonna see 10k by winter for sure.

(Pages on this thread that is)

[JayJuanGee]

TROLL QUOTE DENIED

However wanted to address his comment...not quite sure how you equate price to being the defining factor of bitcoin's growth

I think it has to do with thinking of Bitcoin primarily as some kind of investment.

That's a trap into which many noobs and ill-informed people fall.

I do NOT see anything wrong with thinking about bitcoin as an investment, so long as the assets of the "investor" are sufficiently diversified and the "investor" maintains some kind of strategy that accounts for the probable ongoing volatility factors.

[aminorex]

I think his point was that any miner who pays more for the kit than will allow for a positive ROI is obviously not under pressure to sell.  They are happy to pay above market for future bitcoin. They are clearly not requiring a positive return, so they must be finding utility in other factors.  They are clearly very interested in acquiring bitcoin, and there is no reason to think they will sell them, unless perhaps to introduce others to their hobby.

Your assumption is that their costs are higher than BTC cost. Why do you think so? I'd think the ones who are adding this enormous hashrate actually have a way of making profits, perhaps they have insanely cheap and efficient hardware.

I was addressing the case of a hypothetical miner who purchases hardware with no expectation of ROI.  What proportion of miners this represents, from 0% to 100%, I did not venture to opine.  Now I will: I know that it is neither 0% nor 100%, but beyond that I have little useful data.  I rather suspect it is a very small percentage, less than 1%, but that's just a guess.

[JayJuanGee]

... going to continue to put upward BTC price pressures because they are going to want to get their money back and they are going to want to make a hefty profit, too.

The miners want the most they could get for their coin, regardless of how badly they need the money or what they paid for their gear.  The buyers want to pay the least for their coin, again regardless of all that stuff.  Absolutely no more pressure if the miners are mining at a loss.
A pawn shop won't pay you more for your wedding ring just because you *really* need the money.  It's likely to pay you less.

I agree with you; however, many miners are going to be engaging in longer term strategizing regarding their decision(s) whether and when to sell.  Surely they may gamble wrong or they may get squeezed into selling - but currently,  a large number of them are betting on exponential BTC growth in the future - and surely, they could be wrong.. but largely that is their current bet  (sure there could be some variance, also, but much of the current investment level and onlining of BTC operations tend to establish that BTC miners are investing toward the future of BTC and may even be willing to wait it out for 2 years).

[JayJuanGee]

Guys we're gonna see 10k by winter for sure.

(Pages on this thread that is)

Seems inevitable, yet I am inclined to wager that there are going to be some waves of post(s) dumping in order to avert such inevitability...  

BTW:  Define "winter."    

[ChancellorOnABrink]

http://tutorials.topstockresearch.com/ChartPatterns/TripleBottom/TripleBottomSampleImage.png

https://www.tradingview.com/x/fVtk9fnv/

[aminorex]

Not nuclear winter I hope.

[thefunkybits]

The sentiment right now seems different than the last time we were on "the edge of a cliff"

1. Most people dont seem to be nervous of a dip (last time i definitely was)

2. I've heard a few large players say they wont be selling, and neither will I (those same players and myself were selling last time)

3. Everyone is expecting a drop now and most dont care if it happens

[JimboToronto]

TROLL QUOTE DENIED

However wanted to address his comment...not quite sure how you equate price to being the defining factor of bitcoin's growth

I think it has to do with thinking of Bitcoin primarily as some kind of investment.

That's a trap into which many noobs and ill-informed people fall.

I do NOT see anything wrong with thinking about bitcoin as an investment, so long as the assets of the "investor" are sufficiently diversified and the "investor" maintains some kind of strategy that accounts for the probable ongoing volatility factors.

The acquisition of any asset is an investment  and carries some risk. Bitcoin is not just an investment vehicle like bonds or shares in companies though. Sometimes people forget that it's a lot more.

[vuduchyld]

The owner of a properly positioned portfolio shouldn't much care where the price goes, especially in the short term. Only the best or luckiest day traders can use this market as a reliable source of income. For most of us, it is a form of investment or savings.  Leverage really takes away from your ability to wait out the fluctuations, so it should be used mostly in those rare circumstances where price have moved very far and rapidly out of the trading range and a partial snap-back is almost inevitable.

If you have an outside source of income and a positive cash flow, then almost anytime is a good time to buy. It's just a question of how much. Everyone wants to maximize our return on investment, but being too greedy or stingy can cause you to miss out on opportunities. This downward momentum we are currently experiencing shouldn't bother long term holders much because it is an opportunity to distribute coins to either more people (which will widen the user base) or smarter people (which will reduce volatility and make bitcoin more useful for transactions). In either case, it's good for the long term growth of the Bitcoin economy.

ding ding ding!  winner!