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I predict it's going to crash.
Here is why:
1) Mass hysteria over the IPO. This is rarely a good sign for an IPO. The IPO was overbooked by almost 3 times.
2) Everyone who wasn't able to buy in the IPO wasn't able to because of glitches with the BTCT.CO website. These people are pissed off and not likely to invest now.
3) The mining space is increasing competitive. KNCMiner and Bitfury are about to release their chips and miners and are going to completely overwhelm anyone sill using first generation mining ASICs. Labcoin is behind and won't be able to keep up.
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And NOW my money shows up!! Minutes after it closes.
Looks like a scam to me. Maybe I should be happy I wasn't able to get involved!
At least yours has showed up. I deposited well within time and confirmed within time. However, my coins have not shown up. Although there is a record and i am certain i will get them given to me eventually. Try what I did: Go to WITHDRAW the BTC, and put in some amount of BTC even if it says 0 max available. After that is done your BTC might magically show up like mine did. Confirmed - this works. Damn, wish I had figured that out 9 minutes earlier!! Hot damn it actually works. weird. Still sucks we didn't figure this out before cut off.. DAMN! This sucks. If you wish to donate to me for discovering this trick  ... 181noAUSrzCGSYFaFZwzj2UjDfJ6ATv1Jc I missed out on the IPO, I need all the help I can get now! |
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Just to make matters worse, this IPO caused a ridiculous crash of ASICMiner.
So not only did I miss out on a great opportunity, I lost a ton of money too.
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And NOW my money shows up!! Minutes after it closes.
Looks like a scam to me. Maybe I should be happy I wasn't able to get involved!
At least yours has showed up. I deposited well within time and confirmed within time. However, my coins have not shown up. Although there is a record and i am certain i will get them given to me eventually. Try what I did: Go to WITHDRAW the BTC, and put in some amount of BTC even if it says 0 max available. After that is done your BTC might magically show up like mine did. Confirmed - this works. Damn, wish I had figured that out 9 minutes earlier!! |
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And NOW my money shows up!! Minutes after it closes.
Looks like a scam to me. Maybe I should be happy I wasn't able to get involved!
or at least you are calming yourself with this. No it seems like it was too much of a coincidence. BTCT seems like a shady site and I imagine someone behind the scenes is manipulating this IPO. We'll see what happens when trading goes live in a few hours. |
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And NOW my money shows up!! Minutes after it closes.
Looks like a scam to me. Maybe I should be happy I wasn't able to get involved!
At least yours has showed up. I deposited well within time and confirmed within time. However, my coins have not shown up. Although there is a record and i am certain i will get them given to me eventually. Try what I did: Go to WITHDRAW the BTC, and put in some amount of BTC even if it says 0 max available. After that is done your BTC might magically show up like mine did. |
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And NOW my money shows up!! Minutes after it closes.
Looks like a scam to me. Maybe I should be happy I wasn't able to get involved!
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Great, now how do I get my coins off this POS website?
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What a clusterfuck. I didn't realize BTCT was such a piece of shit. I'm going to back to using bitfunder now. See you all later.
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+1 EXTEND IPO
-1 DO NOT EXTEND IPO We've been waiting here on the edge of our seats long enough. We want our shares!  Technical glitches are going to make this worse than the Facebook IPO. It's only fair to extend it so that it actually goes as planned and no one gets screwed over due to technical problems beyond their control. |
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The IPO should be extended due to these glitches.
I too have way more than 6 confirmations yet no money showing up in my wallet.
Its no longer true that everyone will get a piece. All the people how have 0 in their wallet due to this glitch won't be able to participate at all.
There is no harm in adding another 4 hours on to the trade deadline in the meantime until this glitch is worked out and it will make a lot of people happy.
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I'm already to get in on this IPO. I have coins in my account but...
It says my email is not verified but BTCT has not yet sent me a verification email so I can't trade!
(Yes, I've checked my spam folder).
What can I do!?
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How long to get a verification email?
I signed up a couple hours ago and I haven't received one yet. Why is it taking so long? I've already deposited BTC and I want to trade but it won't let me!
And yes, I've checked my spam folder.
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Prices of all shares of everything tanking. The IPO hurricane is sucking everything in.
I am wondering if it is more profitable to dig into the IPO whirlpool or to buy shares for the cheap of other securities................ hmmmmm Seems ridiculous that ASICMiner is tanking. The dividend is still roughly what's been predicted and it's still a great return for the share price. I think now is the time to buy up things for cheap. People aren't selling because they've lost faith in everything else. They are selling because they are desperate for coins to invest in new things. The price should rebound as more money flows into the market. |
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1) Parables aren't meant to be taken literally. I think the point of that story is that you shouldn't take the gifts that God gave you for granted. It's not really about money at all. There are certainly people who buy and hold silver these days, and for some it has been a good investment. If you believe in bitcoin, the best way to support it is to buy bitcoins. If everyone mined and no one bought bitcoin, the bitcoin economy would crash.
2) Sorry I didn't mean to insult you. Here is the scenario we currently face:
A. You could have bought a Jalapeno last year for the equivalent of 15 BTC (when they were $150 and bitcoins were $10). You'll probably make 15 BTC from your Jalapeno if you ordered early enough, but you won't make much more than that. It's not a bad investment, but not a big win. Also you probably waited almost a year before you even received your Jalapeno.
B. You are buying a second-hand Jalapeno now for 20+ BTC ($2k+). You'll probably never make 20 BTC back, but you might get lucky
C. You are placing a preorder for a Jalapeno now for about 3 BTC ($300). If you got the Jalapeno today, yes, you'd do pretty well. The issue is you aren't likely to receive that Jalapeno until spring of next year, if you ever receive it all (there is a significant chance BFL will go under before then). At that point there will be 500k+ Avalon discrete chips out there, Avalon batch 3, KNCMiners, Bitfury Miners, 60,000+ BFL orders, plus whatever ASICMiner adds. Difficulty will be easily in the hundreds of millions. Maybe 300-500 million. Some estimates place it at about a billion. Remember that KNCMiner and Bitfury are selling 400GH/s miners of which they've had thousands of preorders so far. At 500,000,000 difficulty your Jalapeno will make only 0.0070 BTC per day. And that number will only continue to go down. At that rate it will take over a year and a half to make back your 3 BTC. And since difficult will only continue to rise it is very likely you will never make your 3 BTC back. Even at 250 million difficulty, your ROI time is still longer than six months. And again, that is assuming difficulty stays stagnant. Your Jalapeno has no chance of paying for itself and would be a horrible investment.
3) Mining isn't about the long haul really anymore. It was when we have GPU miners since there weren't major GPU upgrades that changed the mining environment. What we are seeing now is companies coming out with faster and cheaper and more power efficient ASICs. The early ASICs won't look too attractive in a few months as KNCMiner and Bitfury begin to ship. Avalon, which was arguably the first available ASIC is 82Gh/s for 750w. Bitfury is claiming 400Gh/s for 400w and costs less than an Avalon does now. The actually cost of an ASIC is very cheap once you've paid off the NRE. ASIC prices will continue to drop as the market is flooded with them and difficulty rises. Eventually everyone will be able to buy miners in the 100's of GH/s for just hundreds of dollars. Running your Jalapeno which cost $300 and takes 35w for 7Gh/s won't make sense anymore. It will pay for it's own electricity for a while but it will have more and more trouble making back that $300. Most ASIC miners will make the vast majority of their money in the first 3 months after they are purchased. After that diminishing returns will make them more and more irrelevant until they are simply shut off. My BFL FPGA used to make me $20 a day earlier this year. Now it makes me just $1.25. The electricity still only costs pennies to run it so I leave it on, but I don't care so much if it gets shut off now.
Ok unlike your first post, you actually made some valid points there. However, I will still maintain that you're wrong on C). Long haul is what's important, and a lot of people don't realize it. Even you've been talking about it, but you didn't realize you were. Sure a Jalapeno can't remain competitive when the difficulty hits 2Billion, but a BitFury can. It remains profitable all the way up to almost 15Billion! We keep talking about BFL, but not all manufacturers are BFL. Avalon's will become not-profitable long before BFL equipment does, but KNC and BitFury will remain profitable long after both of them. Check out my thread Here. It compares the long term costs of running hardware. Difficulty AND price are both irrelevant, as the numbers all assume the same hashrate for all vendors. Basically it's to show that not all hardware and hardware companies are equal. We keep using Jalapenos as an example, but in my numbers of buying you could save $30,000 is hardware and operational costs by buying a BitFury or KNC. Who knows when they will ship, but it can't be as bad as 12 months. There are two different things people talk about when they talk about mining profitability. First, is whether the machine will ever make enough coins to cover the cost in purchasing it and running it. The second is whether it is currently making enough coins to cover the cost of electricity to contiune run it. I think we are mixing the two. Most ASICs will be profitable using the second definition for quite a long time because they are very power efficient. But it is the first kind of profitability that really matters. Avalons and BFLs bought at inflated prices today may never make back their initial investment even though they will be efficient enough to run for a long time. There is no such thing as a free lunch. If there were an infinite number of BitFury and KNC miners available and they all shipped immediately, then enough will be sold that mining is just barely profitable for people who have cheap or free electricity. Difficulty would suddenly rise and quickly find an equilibrium where mining is just barely profitable for those who can afford to invest. The only thing that makes mining profitable for the common miner is to get there FIRST. In other words, to have an early pre-order or take a risk by ordering from a company that promises something that others aren't delivering. Everyone who is late to the game will lose money. It can be argued that people who order BitFury or KNC later will lose out because the orders before them will cause the difficulty to rise too much. This is definitely true for Avalon and BFL. For BitFury and KNC we can't say because we don't know how many orders there have been and we have no idea when they are going to actually ship. FYI, I have early orders with both BitFury and KNC, I bought an Avalon Batch 2 second-hand (which may make ROI, hopefully), and October orders for multiple Jalapenos and Singles (I've only received the Jalapenos so far, of course). I also own ASICMiner shares (which have already quadrupled my initial investment!). |
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If you "truly believe in Bitcoins" the best investment is to simply buy bitcoins. I don't know why you don't believe that is a valid long term option. Especially if you believe in bitcoins.
And you need to do the math on how difficulty increases and mining works. If your Jalapeno is not profitable now it definitely will not be over a period of 5 years. If your Jalapeno is going to make a profit, it will do so in the first few months of owning it. A year from now, a Jalapeno will be making pennies a month and that will only continue to go down. 4 more years of making pennies is not going to make a dent in the Jalapenos value.
The truth is you probably missed out on making money by mining. To make money you needed to be in Avalon batch 1 or 2 or a very early BFL purchaser. You may make money from KNC or Bitfury but you are taking a big risk. It might even be too late for them either. And even if you do make money, it's not going to be the money Avalon batch 1 customers made.
1) I don't mean to get religion involved a whole lot with my dealings here on the forums, but my best argument against buying and sitting actually comes from a story in the Bible. Matthew 25:18. I don't think sticking coins in a wallet and waiting for 5 years to see what he price ends up at is the most profitable course of action. Remember, this is long-term. The longer you let coins sit in a wallet, the amount doesn't increase. The longer you mine, the more coins you get. If you go from 5 years to 10 years, mining becomes even that much more profitable. 2) Yes, I do have a quite solid grasp on the relationships between mining, difficulty, network growth, price estimates, and ROI. I find it insulting that you think I don't, especially when you think a Jalapeno isn't even profitable. Really? Assuming the price stays what it's at today, the difficulty would have to be at least 1.5Billion before Jalapenos stop being profitable. And by then, you will have mined more than your 3BTC back. 3) I do have several BFL pre-orders, some of which have been delivered, some haven't. However, I never looked at them as a get-rich-quick scheme. Mining can be SOOO much more than just the first 1-3 months. The goal is to make mining profitable in the long-haul. If you can't do that, then you prolly won't last long. Then it seems to me that its very unlikely we won't be at least over $100 a bitcoin by next year so why aren't more people investing it bitcoin. It seems like the only for sure thing of making some profit. It could still take you well over a year to receive a bfl product and there is no proof otherwise. What if all these preorder companies take a similar amount of time or don't produce anything. Are you forgetting that BFL said they would deliver in august of 2012, honest abe said so. History says you can't take any of these companies word for it, especially when they aren't willing to put up their own money and need to piggyback on your investment to make it happen. I was hoping for something more of a reason to sending random people an irreversible currency than they have the cheapest product. When it doesn't exist, its more like gambling on the hopes of making it rich. Now that to me seems stupid
I'm all for people buying BTC and driving the price up. If you're looking to sell in 1-6 months, then buying BTC might work better. If you're looking at 1 or more years, then I think Mining would be better. I realize BFL has had their delays, but lets apply that same 12 month delay to everyone (which I think is unlikely. Avalon and ASICMiner followed their time tables pretty close). You order BitFury's 400GH/s miner, wait 12 months to get it. You think it couldn't mine the 85BTC it cost to buy over the next 4 years? So exactly 5 years from today, you would come out ahead? I know the difficulty would be tons higher than it is today, but it's lower power consumption would keep it profitable for longer that some of the other Miners. *Cough*Avalon*Cough*. 1) Parables aren't meant to be taken literally. I think the point of that story is that you shouldn't take the gifts that God gave you for granted. It's not really about money at all. There are certainly people who buy and hold silver these days, and for some it has been a good investment. If you believe in bitcoin, the best way to support it is to buy bitcoins. If everyone mined and no one bought bitcoin, the bitcoin economy would crash. 2) Sorry I didn't mean to insult you. Here is the scenario we currently face: A. You could have bought a Jalapeno last year for the equivalent of 15 BTC (when they were $150 and bitcoins were $10). You'll probably make 15 BTC from your Jalapeno if you ordered early enough, but you won't make much more than that. It's not a bad investment, but not a big win. Also you probably waited almost a year before you even received your Jalapeno. B. You are buying a second-hand Jalapeno now for 20+ BTC ($2k+). You'll probably never make 20 BTC back, but you might get lucky C. You are placing a preorder for a Jalapeno now for about 3 BTC ($300). If you got the Jalapeno today, yes, you'd do pretty well. The issue is you aren't likely to receive that Jalapeno until spring of next year, if you ever receive it all (there is a significant chance BFL will go under before then). At that point there will be 500k+ Avalon discrete chips out there, Avalon batch 3, KNCMiners, Bitfury Miners, 60,000+ BFL orders, plus whatever ASICMiner adds. Difficulty will be easily in the hundreds of millions. Maybe 300-500 million. Some estimates place it at about a billion. Remember that KNCMiner and Bitfury are selling 400GH/s miners of which they've had thousands of preorders so far. At 500,000,000 difficulty your Jalapeno will make only 0.0070 BTC per day. And that number will only continue to go down. At that rate it will take over a year and a half to make back your 3 BTC. And since difficult will only continue to rise it is very likely you will never make your 3 BTC back. Even at 250 million difficulty, your ROI time is still longer than six months. And again, that is assuming difficulty stays stagnant. Your Jalapeno has no chance of paying for itself and would be a horrible investment. 3) Mining isn't about the long haul really anymore. It was when we have GPU miners since there weren't major GPU upgrades that changed the mining environment. What we are seeing now is companies coming out with faster and cheaper and more power efficient ASICs. The early ASICs won't look too attractive in a few months as KNCMiner and Bitfury begin to ship. Avalon, which was arguably the first available ASIC is 82Gh/s for 750w. Bitfury is claiming 400Gh/s for 400w and costs less than an Avalon does now. The actually cost of an ASIC is very cheap once you've paid off the NRE. ASIC prices will continue to drop as the market is flooded with them and difficulty rises. Eventually everyone will be able to buy miners in the 100's of GH/s for just hundreds of dollars. Running your Jalapeno which cost $300 and takes 35w for 7Gh/s won't make sense anymore. It will pay for it's own electricity for a while but it will have more and more trouble making back that $300. Most ASIC miners will make the vast majority of their money in the first 3 months after they are purchased. After that diminishing returns will make them more and more irrelevant until they are simply shut off. My BFL FPGA used to make me $20 a day earlier this year. Now it makes me just $1.25. The electricity still only costs pennies to run it so I leave it on, but I don't care so much if it gets shut off now. |
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Who's dumb enough to pay $250 for 300-400M hash when you can get a USB Eruptor for alot less, save power and have more per computer.
Who's dumb to buy a USB Eruptor that will never even pay for itself. |
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I'm pretty green to Bitcoins and mining but I think we had a window of opportunity that is now closed for mining for profit. Or better said, mining for profit much over the break even cost of the hardware.
For example, I don't believe there will ever be a day you will be able to buy from BFL (or any other vendor) a machine such as the Jalapeno for $249, that will generate $400 in BTC in a month. That's a 61% rate of return on your investment in 1 month! When banks at paying 1% on a CD, that makes zero sense. It would be same as Amazon selling $20 bills for $10 with free shipping. Basic supply and demand principle would kick in and drive up the price of the hardware to the point where you would have to pay an amount that would result in you only being able to make something close to a normal rate of return on your money. You are going to have a shortage, as in more people ordering than the company can ever supply, and a few lucky people reselling the products at a price so high that your rate of return will much lower and closer to what other traditional investments pay.
So none of this is making any sense at all to me. It makes zero sense that someone like BFL would sell any of their products at all. Anyone with capacity to build powerful miners should be mining with them, not selling them. Something fishy is going on.
I basically turned $100 into $3,000 over 10 months mining but it was pure luck. My used GPU that cost $100 mined 8 coins. Ordered a Jalapeno last year that cost me $249. It arrived and I sold it for over $2K. Now I can't find anything in stock that can be purchased that has even a remote chance to pay itself off, much less make a profit. I'd like to mine again but everything I explore seems like a loser to buy now.
No, mining will never be guaranteed money anymore. Too many people are in the game now. People still buy from BFL because it's a gold rush. They think if they can get in now they can still make money. It's far too late. BFL sells instead of mines because they can make far more money selling hardware to miners than they can actually mining. If BFL actually suddenly shipped all 60,000+ pre-orders tomorrow the difficulty would skyrocket so high than none of those machines would ever make thier cost. I hate to say this but you didn't make as much as you thought you did (if any at all) from your Jalapeno. I bought 2 Jalapenos at $150 last October. At the time, BTC was worth $10. That means those Jalapense cost me 15 BTC each. I don't expect those Jalapenos will ever mine 15 BTC in their lives. I would have been far better off just buying BTC with my $300. I would have 30 BTC now worth about $3k. You were smart to sell your Jalapenos for 20+ BTC. You would never have mined that much. But you still might have been better off buying BTC instead of a Jalapeno (depends on what the exchange rate was at the time). I always look at mining costs in terms of BTC, because spending dollars on a miner is an opportunity cost of me not spending that money on buying BTC directly. You need to use the exchange rate at the time you pay for the miner and then think purely in BTC from then on. If you look at it that way, pretty much every customer of BFL is LOSING money. |
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Jalapenos aren't 25BTC anymore. They're more like 3. And those Block Erupters really are a terrible investment. They are WAY too overpriced. Anyone recommending them is usually either A) stupid, or B) counting on mining on them for a small period of time and then reselling, which is hard to do just right.
For me, it's a simple question: what other alternatives are there? If I truly believe in Bitcoins, and want to mine and keep mining for several years, what's the best way to accumulate the currency?
Switching to LTC does nothing to help BTC, so I avoid LTC as a matter of principle. Buy BTC and hold? That only works if the price is guaranteed to increase, and isn't a good long-term option. It might take a year for a Jalapeno to mine back those BTC, but what if I mine that Jalapeno for 5 years? I come out ahead. You could buy ASICMiner shares, but I dont consider them good for all of BTC. WAY too centralized. If you want to mine BTC, ASICs are the only real, viable option for the long-term.
Now I'm talking about mining here, and there are always other options to invest BTC to make BTC. You could give out small loans and make money on the interest. You could invest in a small startup that sells good for BTC. There are probably hundreds of ways to make BTC that aren't mining.
If you "truly believe in Bitcoins" the best investment is to simply buy bitcoins. I don't know why you don't believe that is a valid long term option. Especially if you believe in bitcoins. And you need to do the math on how difficulty increases and mining works. If your Jalapeno is not profitable now it definitely will not be over a period of 5 years. If your Jalapeno is going to make a profit, it will do so in the first few months of owning it. A year from now, a Jalapeno will be making pennies a month and that will only continue to go down. 4 more years of making pennies is not going to make a dent in the Jalapenos value. The truth is you probably missed out on making money by mining. To make money you needed to be in Avalon batch 1 or 2 or a very early BFL purchaser. You may make money from KNC or Bitfury but you are taking a big risk. It might even be too late for them either. And even if you do make money, it's not going to be the money Avalon batch 1 customers made. |
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OK, the problem actually had nothing to do with the Avalon at all.
For those of you who are curious, here is what happened.
Apparently, the people I sublet from had installed a new cable modem today. When they reset everything to set it up, they somehow deleted the wireless configuration on their wireless router.
Not a big deal, they simply set it up again with the same network name and password.
But for some reason, every device I used asked for the password again even though it had it stored. I hardly noticed.
Now the problem was my Avalon was plugged into a wireless bridge which was set up to automatically connect to that wireless network. It wasn't able to and had to be set up again. Now the only other things on that network was a backup drive and a PS3, neither that I noticed wasn't working.
So the good news is the avalon is working again. The bad news is I now have a spare power supply.
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