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761  Economy / Economics / Re: fiat vs commodity on: November 24, 2023, 11:59:57 PM
The reason commodities outrank and outperform FIAT is the supply and demand is self defined and they have been the backing for currencies in the past due to this long term strong commodity market.   The present backing we have for paper currency is politics, they control people who pay taxes and they are spending and borrowing as much as possibly the supply of more money is way too lax and doesn't seem likely to end without a crash.     Most commodities are far more reliable though subject to industrial economic progress hence politics oversees that too to some extent and can interfere in all markets.  I still trust commodity value far more then cash however its frequently less liquid which is a problem for many as we live in a world and economy powered by debt.
762  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Dangerous chasing losses on: November 24, 2023, 11:44:31 PM
A legend whose won alot needs to develop a broader more positive attitude.  If you lose on any particular day, you call it charity after all you are the winner long term hence your legendary luck and skills to profit overall long term.  Getting triggered and reacting without thought should be a phenomena that occurs less and less as you gain experience and become calmer under stress and games which refuse to ever go your way.   Just seems right to me that time paid, prior games all count for something win or loss.
763  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Illiquid Supply Hits An All-Time High on: November 24, 2023, 11:31:36 PM
We're seen exchanges crash and burn before, allocations that should have been held securely and 100% were not.  So whats the news 2022, more of the same idiot attitude apparently so I figure to some it was always a possible maybe this big exchange could fall apart.  Prior lessons are that BTC isnt standing ontop of the infrastructure and centralization of a privately owned company, thats not how it works.  Some recognize and trade on that and obviously there is a factor of fear that can propagate regardless to every part of the market but yea many know it was a chance to buy on the unpopularity and weakness.   This entire year has been a slow grind,  2017 did also start off dull as heck I try not to forget the pattern even if we never repeat 1:1 moves.
764  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you gamble because you don't have sufficient money? on: November 23, 2023, 11:54:52 PM
Gambling because you are poor might be one of lifes greatest ironys but its quite realistic I suppose.  I thinking of it was from the perspective of cheap entertainment, even going to see a movie nowadays can be a wallet busting activity and the copyright movies are closely held by tradational industry so that its in the hands of big business.   However anyone at all in life can gamble using just a simple set of cards or similar, nobody can stop you having a quick game and ideally its friendly local and not too expensive in the risk vs fun factor.     It could be a real positive activity if you somehow like playing cards, gambling and dont lose anything big its cheaper then drinking etc.   Many gambling as a negative but imo its not most of the time when in moderation.
765  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Sentiment Poll for November on: November 23, 2023, 11:39:35 PM
Binance is fixed news in that it does not appear to be a negative which spreads in an unknown way.  Its announced and resolved quite quickly and the idea of disclosure and anti laundering was already a known factor to exchanges.  Maybe thats why, the main reason BTC does not pull back is the Dollar index I think.   So far I see BTC standing on support about 36k, also a prior ceiling to movement roughly.  If it lost that and also DXY started to trend up I would expect a  fall.  I thought maybe November could see this fall but seems there is no imperative to especially sell or move a large amount at present in either direction.
766  Economy / Economics / Re: fiat vs commodity on: November 23, 2023, 11:07:04 PM
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My question is whether the price of bitcoin is rising or is fiat experiencing a decline?
Both of these things are occurring, its a bit of a treadmill.  Nominally all workers and even skilled trades people are better off by pure numbers but in value terms people realize they have suffered greatly from the inflation occurring over decades and a family with employed householders may struggle to pay the bills despite having good jobs.   This points to a problem which may cause economic upset, where money is no longer valid in its purpose to propagate value through prices in an economy.  So its both and its a confusing effect.

BTC prices isnt the final consideration, factors behind the price are more important really and represent value growth better.  However price is the most simple to appreciate guide especially short term to gains or losses.
767  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Minimum Age to gamble on: November 23, 2023, 10:13:13 PM
The most widespread gambling is not poker or casinos, its within ordinary arcade games themselves as the modern computer game contains a gambling element with cash in and value items won on what is essentially some form of gambling.  Even if that amounts to a lottery ticket, its gambling and yet the legal case to define it as such has not occurred especially.  Some governments have noticed and implemented legislation but thats not widespread; its worked slightly to block those citizens from gambling within the game but since its a global game with a global audience its restricted in a minor way only at present.
768  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2024 Oscar Awards bets and discussions on: November 23, 2023, 05:27:14 AM
Oppenheimer odds are too short to want to bet at this early stage.  Is it impossible now for a film to be released in the last weeks of the year and qualify, I wasnt aware it would end this early or did I misread that schedule that way.
My outsider bet would be Barbie at 17x     It would be a surprise for sure but at 17x odds you have to a take a long chance it might be the film that some thought was most qualified.  Im not decided on this idea but alot of people said it had a bigger frame to it and that sounds like it could be an oscar deal.  I dont know, Im just mentioning I will think about it.
769  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Dangerous chasing losses on: November 22, 2023, 11:29:26 PM
Boredom is definitely a danger, people do stupid things when bored as its the opposite of patience.  I would agree its best to change course when unable to think of any valid tactic to proceed with just throwing it all on a random number and hope is a loss that might take down the gains of a whole evening, easy to end up taking stupid risks.  This is true in general not just gambling so good life lesson perhaps.
770  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: November 22, 2023, 10:06:43 PM
Not that long ago the spins reward was fairly near to the max, thats why I used them up because I figured that was fairly good going and BTC was due to recover upwards.   Now I think theres enough reasons for a pullback but I dont suppose it will occur to my personal wants or timing, by end of this month for the bet.   I dont think its occurring but the odds are too nice not to put some small side bet on the chance we get blindsided by a move down.  We all know BTC can move sharply so its definitely possible, anything down to 30k is fair game now. 1 day left before lock.
771  Economy / Speculation / Re: guilty plea on: November 22, 2023, 07:53:35 AM
CZ resigned from Binance has some dump potential.   News article says he is facing a year plus sentence and had to post a bail amount in the 9 figures size.   I dont know thats true but the disruption of a major crypto company could be enough to pause any buying and trigger a swing to selling.   The ETF refusal or delay is another reason, against that is the backdrop of the dollar index in some decline still which doesnt support a generally negative view unless it also switches its behavior hence I think any sell is smaller rather then larger.  

https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1727063503125766367?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1727063503125766367%7Ctwgr%5Ef3f54008a8152da96a1682487fee26e7b25e958d%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fxstreet.com%2Fcryptocurrencies%2Fnews%2Fbreaking-cz-confirms-resignation-as-ceo-takes-responsibility-for-wrongdoing-and-says-binance-is-not-a-baby-202311212042


Justice department and partners announce cryptocurrency enforcement actions  - $4.3bn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XEVCOhtLac
772  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Not keeping records makes me a bad gambler? on: November 21, 2023, 11:45:12 PM
Not everyone is into statistics, I would say keep it simple.  It is a game or leisure activity after all.  Some might find a benefit from tracking all they are doing exactly, sports bettors Ive heard of tracking exact outcomes vs odds offered and % available profit vs actual placed bets.    However so long as you keep to a set budget and dont exceed that, I think it more then likely is going to stay purely fun and many keep track in their head which is fine imo.   Dont think I ever had a perfect records kept outside of the website itself allowing me to go back years to look at match results vs bets etc.
773  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Would You Crowdfund for a Gambler Who Has Gambled Irresponsibly? on: November 21, 2023, 07:05:03 PM
Really bad idea as it teaches nothing to reform the bad attitude and self management that caused the problem.   I would say food, basic clothing and anything else basic required by a person has to be provided as an item not cash.
   It would almost be the opposite of help to encourage a person into not feeling the full responsibility, things can certainly get worse for all the possible avenues of easy cash I dont want to see anyone go down that road.  At best they end up in prison maybe for years after being offered a way to get cash fast, some people dont know better to refuse a bad offer.
774  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Dangerous chasing losses on: November 20, 2023, 05:53:30 PM
Gambling  emotionally is the danger that alters your otherwise normal gaming behavior and puts the gambler into the moment where they can lose all.  Stick to a premade plan and you have the method to avoid the problem, its simple advice but its also the best advice imo.   Many people shouldn't drink and gamble as it compromises judgement way too much.    A pre made budget, dont take any way to get more money too easily as that will be the downfall to your plans.   Crypto I always argue allows a person to isolate their budgets.
  The best gambles imo are the ones you put on days before a sports match after reading an article or some other realization of the game dynamics, active gambles in a card game or whatever live game is far harder to do.
775  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: November 20, 2023, 11:27:11 AM
I've got the bigger prizes from just single spins but I did used to do alot of them also.  Ive been lucky on the free email also but generally it will take hundreds of spins to get the nicer results come back.
  The single Wheel spin is now working for me btw if anyone was waiting.   Iam not waiting to use wheel spins especially as I have the expectation of a pullback in price.  I was purely looking at the graphs etc. and guessing as of course I dont know but recently I heard the reasoning why price might pull back which is the whole ETF deal, expectation and those who would bought in with expectation of approval.
   The idea being that not outright refusal but no immediate clearance for a BTC ETF would be enough to make speculators quit the game and close out trades, this alone is enough to have BTC come back to prior pricing.  I dont think a large pullback, just a retest of prices is so normal its in my view to occur personally.
   3 days left, the odds say a reversal would be a surprise enough to pay off I should have bet earlier then this tbh.
776  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Is Better Than Digital Gold on: November 20, 2023, 10:41:55 AM
The idea of profiting from gold is slightly off, its purely just a metal a commodity and does nothing at all just sitting there as a metal.  The correct growth allocation or expectation for gold is just plain flat zero.

However to do nothing or be inert under pressure is useful, the world has many risks and obviously as FIAT grows weaker the gold appears to be rising in price even if its value is flat.   That is a use, if there is a growth in people requiring that use thats where I guess the idea of profit from gold occurs.  Long term we have to say its still a flat growth product, it never alters.

Holding BTC again I think it should be used actively in order for an expectation of gains, BTC by itself if not used imo is far less valuable then put into its best use remotely securely and enabling trade mostly of digital products is how I see its best purpose and so highest value.
   Purely holding BTC I would then be a commodity speculator, especially those who borrow funds in any way to hold BTC then they are forced into being speculators or traders with the costs of trading that should be expected.  Its a hard game to win and people blame BTC for that, the prices flies all over the place but thats the dollar price as the BTC itself didnt alter.  So the two assets do have this kind of dynamic in common.

Anyway I wanted to post this chart, its stocks [Dow Jones Index] but its over a century of history.   Gold is super long term and somehow BTC appears to have long term dynamics in its movements.  I dont often look at monthly bars on a chart but I do with BTC so its pretty long term in its moves imo.   This is an interesting chart with epic change in prices over so long etc.  much of this price change is a reflection of Dollar altering so substantially.
  If we discuss Dollar it was by the gold standard for a long time and the chart history is relevant to projections forward for any long term asset or commodity we want to discuss a Dollar price for imo.
 Tone Vays had it in a video
777  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections? on: November 20, 2023, 08:21:35 AM
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the last few years of the US power.

Im very bearish on the status quo continuing because I think it will not benefit people for that to continue to be true.   We presumably do not choose to accept loss and inefficiency when there are choices alternative to that negative path; the endless debt and poor management of that money spent would appear to become more obvious over time so we change path imo.   However the governance, the debt & history of that failure would be in the past and the remaining truth is USA has many positives currently being lost and not used properly, the people and the land itself is a giant resource and so I dont see that going away.  A reset is not an end or sum total
  Presuming Yellowstone doesnt blow up or something equally dramatic I see failure giving way but the strength within every country is something I hope improves despite the negatives and the debt defaulting or however the failure might occur on paper. 
  Whats lacking here is the substance I expect in candidates to reflect that better path forward, its not easy with so many unknowns and great opposition to recognizing many possible negatives that have to be deconstructed but I'm looking for the most positive candidate in that respect.  Ideally there has to be someone looking to something greater then themselves, I only state all this as I believe they would gain so much support if they did appear.  Some people in majority young people think that could be RFK Jr.  Im interested if that support spread but currently I dont presume it will.
778  Economy / Economics / Re: ~85% of money doesn't exist on: November 20, 2023, 07:03:44 AM
Dont think it matters if its physical or not, the main deal about a linkage or exchangeability to anything physical or real was a bigger break of the standard to money.  Actually printing out notes wasnt that important but not allowing exchange on a set standard does ruin the principle of the money being reliable.
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money in existence isn't destined for usage by real flesh and bone humans.
The money is being used, my house debt is unfortunately a real value I owe even if the only sign of it is a balance sheet print off.   Also real is the wages despite appearing purely as a computer print out at best and within days consumed by bills asking for settlement.  I would qualify all of that as real even if not physical exchange.
779  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The most important thing in a betting site on: November 19, 2023, 11:58:55 PM
Withdrawal would be correct but Im going to be completely skin deep in my answer and say the aesthetics probably is a large part of my impression for a new site in terms of remembering and liking my first experiences playing there.   Hopefully the entrance is entirely simple, some small faucet for newly signed up people, then plain simple stuff like the color setting for the buttons, the arrangement, the background picture, the background music perhaps and the sounds and general clickiness and responsiveness to the site.
   Yes fundamental points but if the site times out makes me wait even 30 seconds to load with blank screens, I will close it and never go back probably.
780  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you guys believe in other people luck and try to copy them? on: November 19, 2023, 11:50:04 PM
People naturally learn by copying to some extent but it can also be dangerous to undertake actions especially risky without knowing all the risks, skill and judgement that went with those actions.
   Its definitely something people do, for example Im pretty sure casinos pay some people to play the games as demonstration and also encouragement for genuine people on the sideline to step in and try their luck.  All you need is people to shout about their winnings and be less vocal about the losses and you have a positive effect.  This isnt just gambling this is done across the entire range of advertising imo people will always copy and follow others.
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