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801  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is permissable in Islam. on: October 02, 2022, 05:16:32 AM
Gambling is haram according to the Quran and Bitcoin could be considered gambling by some interpretations of crypto currency and its instability. I don't believe this to be true, but you can cherry pick whatever Islamic scholars you want and go with their subjective interpretation of Islamic readings. The more you go further away from the literal meaning of the text, the more subjective the interpretation is.

Islamic banking laws are also anti-interest so the technology, pricing, and buying and selling of cryptocurrency money is deemed halal by many Islamic scholars who rely on the teachings of Prophet Muhammad PBUH when seeking guidance about permissibility (ultimately, only Allah knows best).

If you're buying and selling cryptocurrency for profit, then it wouldn't be halal anymore. If I'm being brutally honest, crypto will only thrive in western cultures that are more willing to accept modern technology. The majority muslim countries that are more on the progressive end might take up Bitcoin, it will just take a while. The extreme Muslim countries (Iran, Pakistan) won't be doing so any time soon.
802  Economy / Economics / Re: The dollar is surging. This is who gets helped and hurt by its newfound strength on: October 02, 2022, 04:47:39 AM
The dollar is only getting stronger because GBP/EUR is getting weaker, that is to say that the dollar is not actually getting stronger at all. I'd agree that USD is stronger than any other currency right now, but that's only attributable to the energy crisis in Europe.

US economy in recession, trillions of dollars in debt, 8.3 inflation rate. I don't think "surging" describes the current state of USD.
803  Economy / Economics / Re: Can commodities return to its price last year? on: October 01, 2022, 07:16:27 AM
The answer is actually a bit more complicated than it might seem because the core of inflation is bifurcated with respect to supply and demand.

The war in Ukraine resulted in an artificial shortage of energy and subsequent supply that caused prices to go up because demand either remained stagnant or increased. Commodities predictably went up in price which caused the inflation rate in most European countries to increase given the increased price of goods. Presumably when the war ends, prices go down as supply increases and demand maintains itself to 2021 levels (pre-war).

However, the above analysis is predicated on demand remaining stagnant which you cannot assume. The COVID-19 related spending spree saw a demand increase because the money supply was injected with nothing more than a bunch of worthless paper. Essentially, the government saw it more prudent to keep economies shut and instead provide economic stimulation to the tune of trillions across Europe and the U.S combined. If money supply is increased, then demand will go up. Combine an increase in demand with a decrease in supply, then you get double digit inflation levels.

Only expect the the rate of price increases (aka inflation) to go down to the extent the supply shortages can correct itself post war. COVID-19 money printing demand increases cannot be controlled and will drive inflation. Don't anticipate the absolute prices to go down, of course. They never do.
804  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Twitch gambling problem and Sliker issue on: October 01, 2022, 06:57:27 AM
Gambling is something you are legally could do after you turn 18, why would it be something that could be viewed by thousands of kids on twitch? I support the idea that it is not something that should be streamed, I mean this sliker dude himself is the proof that it would be a horrible way to continue your life if you are an irresponsible person.

At the end of the day, there would be a lot of people "if I only win once" type of thinking and thousands of people who watch gambling on twitch will see people win and assume they could too and end up losing a lot of money. This is why I support that twitch should ban gambling and remove anyone who continues to do it.
18 years old is the legal age for most countries but for some it can be lower than that. We know kids, they are curious so they can view these things but I think many of them won't engage with it because they can find it boring.

Video games are still the main thing that can make a kid addicted especially if they are famous e.g Roblox and Fortnite or any other kid games out there. Many people viewed gambling as a negative thing but yet there are still there so why would twitch ban it? Doing so would only make their income less. The problem is not by the gambling or the platform itself but it was the person who are irresponsible on doing that thing.


It's why I suggested earlier in this thread that there be a disclaimer marked for anyone that is displaying any gambling content. A quick search tells me that the minimum age required to sign up for a Twitch.tv account is 13 (this is absurdly young, but to each his own I suppose). If they haven't already, ban any account that is under the age of 18 from accessing any form of gambling content videos/livestream, and then put a manual waiver or user agreement for all other accounts that force the user to accept the risks of gambling, and perhaps even put a support resources for gambling addiction in there as well.

They're allowing sports betting and gambling providers in the U.S., so it doesn't make sense why they would target out game operators outside the U.S.
805  Economy / Economics / Re: Scientists say food insecurity drove international conflict 2000 years ago on: October 01, 2022, 03:47:06 AM
I suppose anything is possible but consider how much food is gone to waste every single year, and that in developed countries there's hundreds of thousands of deaths associated with overconsumption (obesity) ranging from heart disease to hypertension to diabetes. You couldn't even begin to list the adverse effects of having too much food around.

Energy is the biggest concern. No energy, no food. For food shortages resulting in famine of large and rich countries, you would need some sort of intervening and destabilizing global event that's even greater than war, almost something out of science fiction.

Imagine if everyone goes batshit crazy due to hunger. For damn sure they will do everything they can to survive another day, even if it means hurting someone for their food. It's still embedded within us for our own survival and pretty sure it'll exhibit once we reached our breaking point. The problem is, for sure the next conflict for survival will surely leave a lot of people dead—but not hungry, at least.

If civil society ever fell apart it'd be long before we run out of food. I think nuclear war resulting in famine would be the most probable outcome. But in that case, most of us would be dead long before we thought about where we would get our next meal from.
806  Economy / Economics / Re: A great resignation is incoming to the IT powerhouse of the world on: September 30, 2022, 07:26:22 PM
Personally, I lead a team of 70+ associates and around 40% of them have expressed their intent to resign if they are forced to come back to office. It's a huge challenge for many other Indian companies as well.

A huge negative economic impact will most probably follow after this great resignation but it's going to fight the current inflation in India. With less spending by people and with less growth in demand, the inflation may come within controllable range.

Any thoughts?


It's not uncommon. There are cherry picked studies that suggest remote work is more or equally as effective than in-office work but the studies are limited and have small sample sizes. The inconvenient truth is people enjoy remote work because it allows less constraint from supervisors, which means productivity goes down.

An employee in a free market has the liberty to decide what they're worth and move on from a position if the conditions aren't suitable for their needs. If people want to resign to so they can have a better work-life balance, I don't see any issues.
807  Economy / Economics / Re: America Has Lost Its Oil Buffer on: September 30, 2022, 04:18:41 PM
I understand that the price of oil has gone up due to this Russian war deal, but it has gone up so much that oil companies are making record breaking profits, which means that it didn't have to be this high, companies are taking advantage of the situation and nothing more, and they could stop that too.

The record breaking profits are just a propaganda line that's regurgitated over and over again without any context. The profit margin on oil is the only number that would add any context to the "greed" narrative that's being disseminated by the anti-oil anti-capitalist advocacy groups. I don't know what that number is, and I doubt private corporations would be willing to divulge such analytics of their business to be picked apart by the climate radicals. Any profit is too much for these folks.

Oil production cut by millions of barrels due to unprovoked war, energy prices begin to sky rocket. Is this some sort of corporate conspiracy or the probable result of supply and demand?
808  Economy / Economics / Re: 23 Countries Now Abandoning US Dollar on: September 30, 2022, 02:07:43 PM
If the countries abandon the US dollar, establish a new currency, what will be the impact on the US dollar?

USD goes down in value because of less demand. The currency inflation was major part of USD being dumped from currency reserves, the other factor is the U.S. implementing sanctions on a whim and freezing assets from country's recklessly.

Russia and China, many months ago, began conducting their transactions with their own assets and currencies instead of using USD for the transactions. Wasn't economically feasible for them to have to use intermediates if the currency continued to become worthless.

The article is overly exaggerated what it means, simply going to make trade with other country where US dollar usage is restricted or for some other reasons it doesn't mean they are settling to entirely new monetary policies and all their future international trades will be in that way. I don't really see any official statement from the governments about their new policies, all they are doing is when its possible and its actually happening due to sanction against Russia and now EU has to go with Russia to buy Oil and gas for few years.

Yes, but the impact of USD on the global economy is reduced. If you can't trade with countries using USD, you empty out your USD holdings because they become less useful.

I saw this coming years ago prior to all the war nonsense. U.S. has been sanction heavy over the last many years and it goes both ways.
809  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Putin grants citizenship on Edward Snowden on: September 30, 2022, 01:47:34 PM
It’s not merely a formality for media headlines. He as granted asylum first and later permanent residency. He has been living there since and just recently was granted the full right and privileges of a citizen.

Would that entail much benefit? What privileges does a permanent resident not have oppose to a citizen? Participation in Russian elections doesn't seem to be the greatest privilege considering they're rigged.

Right now, I don’t think a pardon would help his case as some Americans still look upon him as a traitor. Even if he’s granted a pardon which is very unlikely, I doubt he would be able to live a quiet and peaceful life in the U.S

Probably. The folks that seem him as a traitor just take their privacy rights for granted. Seems like a lot of people don't remember the Vault 7 leaks a few years after Snowden's leaks. Arguably a bigger story, no one cared.
810  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Buying Bitcoin CBDC on: September 29, 2022, 05:25:17 PM
I had several questions but can only remember one at the moment. When the government issues CBDC’s, how would you purchase BTC privately being that the CBDC’s will let them survail every transaction if they wish. Seems like a silly question being they can do the same through your bank but……

There wouldn't be any way to purchase BTC anonymously if you're using CBDC's. Theoretically if you purchase the coins from a 3rd party, it wouldn't be within the purview of the government to monitor the contents of the transaction if you disallowed them to (mark a transaction as being for related to something else other than crypto, assuming it would be legal).

Other than this, your only choice to purchase crypto anonymously is through tangible asset trades or go through an intermediary and pay off the fees entailed.
811  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation is a creeping beast on: September 29, 2022, 04:23:04 PM
....
Inflation was not only caused by the amount of money printed every year. Inflation is also often caused by the low purchasing power of the people due to the high price of goods. Moreover, the government continues to supply basic commodities from abroad, resulting in low prices for local staples. This is often due to the government's inability to control the barons over national spending.
When it comes to inflation, I think it will continue to be linked with the government as the policy maker. Apart from that, corruption in a country can also lead to inflation. Because it does not match national income and national expenditure or in other words Gross Domestic Product.

But prices come down as a result of supply shortage driven inflation. When demand increases because of too high of a money supply, the money that enters circulation is never going to be taken out. The Ukraine war is responsible for the energy prices being driven up in Europe, causing high inflation when the cost of goods go higher. That's not to say their COVID spending spree's didn't have a massive impact either.

Had the Ukraine war not occurred, you would have still seen a large inflation increase, just not to the degree we see now.
812  Economy / Economics / Re: The economic effect of people flying from RF mandatory conscription on: September 28, 2022, 07:32:47 PM
The highly valued citizens, ie doctors, engineers, IT/Computer science related specialties, will not face conscription. Their skills are more valued in the home country rather than being shipped off to war. Conscription's usually been relegated for the people that bring man power, not technical knowledge. To the extent of the war, your core competency is that you be able to hold a gun and follow orders. There's plenty of Russians to choose from.

It shouldn't affect the economy anymore than a costly war and sanctions are already affecting the economy.
813  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Putin grants citizenship on Edward Snowden on: September 28, 2022, 07:12:25 PM
This is just a formality for media headlines. Snowden was integrated essentially as a Russian citizen and has no intentions of ever leaving. Nor was Russia interested in deporting him.

I recall back to Jan. 2021 when Trump had the opportunity to pardon Snowden but was dissuaded by his colleagues, instead pardoning the usual relatives of political donors. If there was anyone to pardon Snowden, it would've been Trump. No future President would be willing to do it.
814  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Is there a coup going on in China? on: September 25, 2022, 06:39:52 AM
...

It does involve a shift of firepower, or the emergence of new firepower to go against the long standing firepower of the military. Seems like a lot of Asian countries have high compliance from the government so it doesn't really matter. I think why China was so successful with their lockdowns was this urgent sense of compliance. Their population conforms to whatever demands the CCP has for them even if they're treated as inferior.
 
The Western way of doing things, or so at least I thought until COVID happened, was a giant middle finger to the government when they engage in tyranny. The West caved in like a house of cards to the government's demands in 2020 so I don't have as much admiration. It took something like 6 months until they finally began to resist.

Just incorporate and plan to collapse the CCP from within.

How would Taiwan do so?
815  Economy / Economics / Re: Argentina to Hike Interest Rates to 75% as Inflation Nears 100% on: September 25, 2022, 03:11:41 AM
...

This sums up exactly why central banks shouldn't be interfering with free market forces. It becomes a balancing act until a correction happens and the central banks can't control the economy anymore. You're in for much less pain if you take a hands off approach, but of course, that would mean the government can't put their thumbs on the scale in order to enrich themselves.

When I read things like this, I always wonder if these policies will eventually wash up on american shores.

Banks lose money on loans with lower rates than inflation. Hiking rates higher than inflation, could eventually become necessary to the survival of the banking industry. This is a point I have not seen anyone addressing. Our level of discussion on these topics appears to be somewhat lacking in depth. There could be a desperate need for content that covers these points and some of the basics. If it can be written in a way that is easy to understand and helps people to feel better about reading and learning.

I see the question being posed: how bad will the american inflation get? On a level between argentina or the zimbabwe dollar, its anyone's guess.

The inflation reports for USD suggest that it'll come down, but it will be a slow and painful burn for USD holders. The U.S. has a economy, and equally as important a strong military, so you won't be seeing the federal reserve having to hike up interest rates to absurd levels any time soon. That's not to say it couldn't happen. I've long said USD is a sinking ship. It just won't sink today.
816  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Is there a coup going on in China? on: September 25, 2022, 03:03:19 AM
I think it's fake news. I saw the story developing a bit after flights from Beijing were canceled and the airspace was emptied. Turns out that wasn't entirely true as there were some flights over Beijing. They said public transportation was also canceled but I haven't seen any reputable news agencies confirm whether that was true either. Looks only to be twitter speculation.

You'd need a lot of firepower to remove Xi Jinping.
817  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Patriarchy in Iran on: September 24, 2022, 03:56:27 AM
This is the patriarchy that exists in all Islamic regimes. Saudi Arabia is slightly more "progressive," allowing women the basic luxuries like not wearing a hijab without arrest. Islam is extremely restrictive. For all the grief Christianity gets, it's much more adherent to modern values than Islam is.

I am surprised but also glad to see that not all Iranians accept the current theocratic regime in which everything is subject to sanction by a few religious leaders that pretend to be in the sole possession of truth. I cannot help but to think that these protests are not only against how women are treated and considered as second class and made into robots, but also due to the general economic situation of the country.

Even if some Iranians resist, it's not enough.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/08/09/muslims-and-islam-key-findings-in-the-u-s-and-around-the-world/

Seeing how many muslim dominated countries support sharia law is appalling. Iran won't even allow pollsters so we don't have some of the data for them. Goes without saying they support sharia.
818  Economy / Economics / Re: US is a ‘developing country’ on rankings that measure democracy, inequality on: September 24, 2022, 02:55:02 AM
It's the usual social scientists screeching racism at every corner ranking the U.S. as a developing country. The reality is racism doesn't play much of a role in the American democracy. Fueling tensions between races is how politicians make their money. Making minorities the perpetual victims ensures that those voters will keep reelecting the same politicians who promise change.

Quote
To illustrate his point, King referred to many of the same factors studied by Du Bois: the condition of housing and household wealth, education, social mobility and literacy rates, health outcomes and employment. On all of these metrics, Black Americans fared worse than whites. But as King noted, “Many people of various backgrounds live in this other America.”

The benchmarks of development invoked by these men also featured prominently in the 1962 book “The Other America,” by political scientist Michael Harrington, founder of a group that eventually became the Democratic Socialists of America. Harrington’s work so unsettled President John F. Kennedy that it reportedly galvanized him into formulating a “war on poverty.”

Kennedy’s successor, Lyndon Johnson, waged this metaphorical war. But poverty bound to discrete places. Rural areas and segregated neighborhoods stayed poor well beyond mid-20th-century federal efforts.

At no point are people allowed to question what precise effects real systemic racism had (Jim Crow law) apart from the individual choices someone might make, and how those individual choices affects someone's socioeconomic status.

In fact, most immigrants arriving to the U.S. are poor by nature. Does that indicate any system issue that would suggest a fundamental flaw to democracy? If a particular black American makes individual choices that are detrimental to his/her financial success, would this reflect poorly on the system or on the person?
819  Economy / Economics / Re: US Economy Is a Safer Bet Than ‘Dire’ Europe, Goldman Strategists Say on: September 23, 2022, 07:41:54 PM
The global economy is dependent on the larger economies and their stability. So U.S.A, EU, and China are all the major players. Other economies don't matter as much. EU has an energy crisis that needs to be solved, and the U.S.A has had one of the worst days in the stock market since Joe Biden took office: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/22/futures-inch-higher-following-another-day-of-losses-after-fed-rate-hike-sell-offs.html

Yep, federal interest rates rise, wall street detects sharks in the waters, and you have the worst closing in 2022, and the lowest of the Biden administration.

Unfortunately it's bad government policy that's leading to the decline of the greatest economies we've ever seen.  Self inflicted, all of it. I don't know if I see any solutions.
820  Economy / Economics / Re: US Digital Currency a ‘Unanimous Need’ to Compete With China: House Committee on: September 23, 2022, 05:27:27 PM
The question remains, what will central banks like the federal reserve do to incentivize CBDC adoption. Are there steps they can take to make CBDC attractive inflation protected assets? Would that be a concern for them?

If I had $1 billion dollars in liquidity. With an option of storing my $1 B in CBDC, gold, stocks, bonds, commodities or bitcoin. Which option would be the most attractive in this day and age considering concerns revolving around inflation and recession.

A CBDC that's pegged to an actual asset to prevent creation of new currency would never work because it defeats the purpose of why these banks want to create the currency in the first place. I don't know if there's any benefit for a country with, what they believe to be, a strong currency to create their own stablecoin. It would delegitimize their pre-existing currency by having two currencies in the same country compete with each other. It'd create economic instability if everyday consumers began to fragment. If the U.S. was interested in creating a stablecoin, I think they'd make their intentions more clear. Their intentions for now is just digitalizing USD so it allows them more control over people's finances. It becomes easier to account for versus paper cash.
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