double bottom on gox
What? On the 1d chart ^^ Double bottoms and no girl pics ... this is bearish indeed I know right? |
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Bitcoin protocol failure ? Mtgox bankruptcy ? Bitstamp illegal activity inside EU ? Sure;;; bitcoin will go far.... FAR CLOSE TO 10$
What Bitstamp stuff are you talking about? |
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never sell everything if you think the price will go up in the long run. Make a separate long-term and trading stack.
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We can't seem to get a break these days: flash crashes, phishing, malleability attacks ... Good luck Bitfinex team! May the next week bring you more sleep  . |
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From this crap, you taught all the lenders a thing. Never pay the protection fee since they are protected from default anyway with your arbitrary halt, this is why those lenders get 200% per year, risk/return factor.
And you told the SHORTers here that there will never be cheap shit to be bought since you will protect the LONG guys and the lenders anyway.
I am sure a spike from $700 to $4900 and back to $700 would have been dealt with in the same way. And if lenders are protected better with a clear system, lending capital will increase and borrowing rates will go down. |
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So let me get this straight...
Go long --> crash down due to domino effect of longs closing --> saved by roll back of trades
Go short --> crash down due to domino effect of longs closing --> lose by roll back of trades (not able to close position at a profit)
Go long --> crash up due to domino effect of shorts closing --> lose by roll back of trades? Will you roll back trades in this instance?
Go short --> crash up due to domino effect of shorts closing --> saved by roll back of trades? Will you roll back trades in this instance?
So we are paying you for a service that if I wanted to profit during a crash, would be impossible?
You say you roll back trades due to lenders losing money, but I've asked multiple times how can lenders loose if positions are forced closed before the possibility of lenders loosing, with no answer.
Who cares if the price goes to zero, some people get cheap coins, lenders don't lose a thing, and the next trade after zero can be any number, possibly only a penny less than before the domino effect began.
I lost money last night because ___________?
If you can give me a legit answer to my last question, which defies everything said in this entire post, then I will give up. If not, give me my profit I should have earned. Pretty simple deal if you ask me.
I think the answer is that you will be able to profit from a crash, but not from a flash crash, and you will be able to profit from a bull run, but not an flash short squeeze. People seem to be making a "lenders versus traders" story out of this, but let's not forget that for every trader that was short or who had really low buy orders, there is another trader who was leveraged long with a liquidation price at $200 or something like that. These longs are screwed too by flashcrashes. I honestly think that if there were the type of crash in which the lenders would lose like 10% of their capital, bitfinex would uphold this. But last night would have wiped out nearly everybody. I believe almost every liquidity provider remaining (and future ones) would have packed their bags, left, and never return. The End for margin trading. So really, again, I think we need to come up with a transparent plan on how these types of flash crashes will be handled in the future, because they WILL happen again. |
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Well first, if Bitcoin needed a central regulatory authority to decide its 'fair value' why not just hand it over to the Federal Reserve? They have a hell of a lot more experience than the current exchanges.
Don't think anybody is suggesting something like that. Maybe, but I'm not so sure starting a 'club' like that is a good idea, it reeks of potential exploitation/corruption to me.
I think this issue can be resolved w/o extensive inter-exchange regulation.
agreed |
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I can understand halting trades when the margin calls have caused a significant difference b/w stamp and BFX, but a flat '10% per hour to decline is too much' centralized all exchange halt like a few people here are suggesting sounds ridiculous.
What would you call such a system? 'FinCEN BTC, the first centralized authority in crypto!'
For a number of reasons the idea is nauseating.
I really haven't thought that proposal through, but if it was a good idea, and all/most exchange owners would agree on it voluntarily, then whats so nauseating about it? So long as nobody gets forced to implement these things at gunpoint, and people with a different opinion have the opportunity to start up or use another exchange, what would be the big deal? However, I doubt a uniform rule like that over multiple exchanges will ever be used in practice. |
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I can understand halting trades when the margin calls have caused a significant difference b/w stamp and BFX, but a flat '10% per hour to decline is too much' centralized all exchange halt like a few people here are suggesting sounds ridiculous.
If Bitfinex had enough BTCs on bitstamp today, Stamp might have flashcrashed too. |
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I'm not sure why so many people think a volatility cap is a good idea for any exchange. To a certain extent I guess I agree, but half of us only trade crypto because of the volatility.
Most of us coming from forex/stock markets and any trader with 'more than 3 neurons' (as the BFX devs put it) would immediately abandon BTC markets if a strict cap similar to other markets was every put in place.
Its really a risk/reward problem, even trading bitcoin comes with the inherent risk that your exchange will just run off with your money not to mention the sort of problems people have discussing here with 'halted' trading. In addition if you have an experience with forex/stock exchanges/brokers trading bitcoin is like stepping back into the dark ages. The fees are insane, there's no regulation, support for the trading platforms in pitiful by comparison, none of your funds are insured.
My forex account is not only insured for 2 million but I also earn interest just on the deposit (not for lending just for having money on the exchange). In addition most brokers offer ninjatrader, metatrader, or some other kind of support (the working version I might add), along with a number of other custom trading tools.
If the volatility is gone the traders will be too.
I also might add most of the markets mentioned as a precedent for such a policy have brokers that offer 300:1 leverage or more.
So something like 10% per hour would not be enough for you? |
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Hi Raphael,
How would you explain the erasing of the long positions that people had right after the crash as if they never existed? I believe that deleting an already
filled position is a borderline scam. Please correct me if I'm wrong and elaborate.
Thanks.
During a flashcrash at the big stock exhanges, trades get reversed too... |
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Hi Raphy or Giancarlo,
Could you just confirm that the flashcrash trades are/will stay rolled back?
PS: Bitcoins occassional volatility makes trading on margin unpractical. Imho the Bitfinex platform can only survive if there are clear rules about what happens in cases of extreme volatility. I like both the idea for an automatic pause and the option for lenders to take over the position of the trader during extreme volatility. Maybe it is possible to enable asymmetric trading up till a certain level during the pause? (allowing shorters to get out of their position while simultaneously helping the severe crash). I haven't really thought it through, but I think we need to come up with a solid and transparent action plan.
I think traders can live with a world in which they can't profit from flash crashes (but only from 'slow' changes of 10% per hour or so), so long as they feel that they are being treated fairly according to the rules.
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Dafuq, that thing was real??
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I like how we are going back to discussing society etc. instead of randomnly shouting out "HODL!". There is hope for us yet . Big swings in your capital and talking about it is fun and all, but only speaking about bulls and bears gets boring after a while  . |
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Those be some strong claims. Doubts about them, I have.
I am presuming you are talking about the "where does the money come from to pay the interest"-situation.
That is a major component. In and of itself, it would not make collapse inevitable, but it forms the foundation upon which collapse is built. The system was designed to rent-seek in the margin, draining the energy made available by economic growth, on an exponential growth model. The system can no longer work as designed, because the exponential growth assumption has reached end-of-life. The energy available is declining. It could in hypothetical principle be adapted, modified, to conform to the new material conditions; however, other factors make that impossible, in particular the fragility of low-diversity tightly coupled systems: Ok, so a "Chris Martenson crash course" view, if I can summarize it as such. Me being a little know-it-all b*tch, I have to point out that this takes into account several other aspects of the world, besides the purely mathematical (which you already admitted). I am not saying I disagree with you, just that "mathematical certainty" gets thrown around too quickly, when it's really the underlying model that should be the object of discussion. It is useful to characterize ecological systems by their path through a three-dimensional phase-space, the axes of which are energy requirements, interconnectedness, and diversity. Ecological systems, incorporating predator-prey dynamics, are attracted to a lemniscate path through this phase space. When energy requirements approach the limits of available energy, interconnectedness is high, and diversity is low, the system is reaching a catastrophic portion of the trajectory, and a very rapid motion to a loosely-coupled, low-energy, high-diversity region ensues.
The predators are about to become carrion, upon which a new diversity will feed.
Ok, I 'll need some more time to process this, has an interesting ring to it (although I'll probably just forget to do it)  . Thanks for the nice reply. |
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Staying under $250 for longer than a quick dip would raise my eyebrows...
If and how I would react to such a eyebrow situation depends on my interpretation of the fundamentals.
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It is mathematically inevitable that debt-based monetary systems will explode. It does not require any particular economic theory or political ideology to recognize this, merely mathematical literacy.
Those be some strong claims. Doubts about them, I have. I am presuming you are talking about the "where does the money come from to pay the interest"-situation. |
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LOL. You can say what you want about us yanks, but tonight, the line was held by Americans at Coinbase. I probably hate my government worse than you do, but I've never been more proud of my countrymen.
Are concepts like national pride and patriotism really needed in Bitcoinland? I don't think so. +1 +2 |
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Obviously its Americans who are buying the fuck out of bitcoin. Kinda pisses me off that this spread reaches it's peak when I want to be buying and when I pulled the last of my coins out of Gox, the spread was the other way so I lose the spread every fucking time. But make no mistake, it's supply and demand and the yanks are coming.
Coinbase account holders have access to our bank accounts and can buy all we want and we're obviously buying the hell out of this drop. Once again, we have to bail out Europe and the rest of the world. Getting to be a habit. You ungrateful bastards can still suck it when the dollar fails and we still get to keep world reserve currency status!
In Europe, we have an exchange, we have ATMs and there are several European countries with greater adoption per capita. Check sourceforge. Once again, we have to bail out Europe and the rest of the world.
Once again??? From Nazis, Commies, etc. Those crosses on the cliffs over Normandy aren't just landscaping. But ummm you kindalike are europeans if we think about history? It's just a matter of how long you wanna go. Or are you saying you we're in normandy? Your reasoning is too rational. The main thing to remember is that he is a hero, and the rest of us are shit. |
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