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861  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 19, 2018, 07:33:09 PM
Full Disclosure: I voted "No" in the current poll. I'm actually feeling the most excitement I've felt since I was approaching retirement.

This can only mean one thing: We're likely to test $1k, with my track-record  Undecided
Short 5-10% in ~1% increments until the reversal then buy back. Worst case the losses are tiny (after re-buy at higher level). Best case you've got 20 to 40% more corn.

I don't see $1k with all the investment banks buying in behind the curtain though. Would take some braindead OTC whales to trade at that price.


Well, it looks like everything is going according to the best scenario. Either this was the final drop (which I don't think so) or worst case we can go for a final capitulation FROM a higher price (ie: $4.5K to $3K) in January-March.

I also go for the second scenario because I suspect we haven't been able to accumulate enough at the bottom. Next time many will be prepared for a stronger faster bounce on huge volume.

This is fine.
In the context of the time frame this is a fairly "V shaped" bounce. 

But that's a bit hopiumy I think...  I think your "B" scenario makes more sense.
When x80 short?

do never say that again !! Roll Eyes
100x? Shocked
862  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 19, 2018, 06:51:07 PM
Well, it looks like everything is going according to the best scenario. Either this was the final drop (which I don't think so) or worst case we can go for a final capitulation FROM a higher price (ie: $4.5K to $3K) in January-March.

I also go for the second scenario because I suspect we haven't been able to accumulate enough at the bottom. Next time many will be prepared for a stronger faster bounce on huge volume.

This is fine.
In the context of the time frame this is a fairly "V shaped" bounce.  

But that's a bit hopiumy I think...  I think your "B" scenario makes more sense.
When x80 short?
863  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 19, 2018, 02:52:05 PM
Are we going to $4,000 boys? It sure feels like the bear is dead! Is this the part in the cycle where the majority bitches that this is a fools rally? Because it sure feels like it!
Called it the other day. Was printing money with altcoins rallying and BTC trends have been converging towards flatness. Two very compelling buy signals for BTC. I can still see us going down, but in the short-term thanks for the free corn. Sure feels like FOMO though, as it becomes increasingly evident that institutions are accumulating. At this rate that whole MMO thing might actually work out. Aw jeez forever dot com.
864  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2018, 09:19:00 PM

I don't get the point of those headlines. Technically higher population means higher amount of students thus increasing student debts. Without all the details about rates of repayment and where the money comes from those types of headlines are pretty pointless. I'd be more worried about the dollar printing press than increasing absolute debt (not that I know or care enough about the debt market to make any claims for or against it).

For reference. One billion students taking out a loan of $1000 would amount to total student debt of one trillion. And $1000 is an amount that nearly anyone could pay off with interest in their lifetime. No details, no information.
865  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2018, 09:15:34 PM
Greenspan predicts stagflation in fiat world.

https://qconline.com/business/investment/personal-finance/alan-greenspan-investors-should-prepare-for-the-worst/article_b5b32707-3764-562b-95e9-e1602618e663.html
https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2018/12/18/alan-greenspan-stock-market.cnn-business/video/playlists/business-markets-investing/

What would be the consequences for bitcoin?
Last time it happened in the 70ies, gold performed exceptionally well, stocks did not do anything for 12 years (with multiple sharp drawdowns and recoveries) and bonds cratered.
Hopefully, btc would replace gold here.

At around 2028-2030, interest rates would be very high and, hopefully, the new bull market in bonds would begin.
I intend to capture that yield then and there.

"451: Unavailable due to legal reasons

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Nice meme.
866  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2018, 07:19:01 PM
A few of my friends, who were watching from the sidelines for the past years, have started showing real interest in the past few weeks (following the dump from 6k). And I mostly run around nerd circles, so perhaps this 'delayed' increase in activity could be a sign of fresh casual blood FOMOing in?

Alternatively Craig & Co trying their playbook again.
867  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2018, 06:27:21 PM
Btw, have ANY of the ICO's actually delivered anything barely useful or profitable already?
Double post due to edit:

Most ICOs have been profitable if you even partially dumped the pumps.

Profitable products? Don't think so, but keep in mind that startups generally take a few years to generate profit (if they survive). Edit: There's at least one hedge fund that outperformed the market on the way up and down (bigger gains, lower losses). Went from ~3m to ~6m and now sitting at ~4m. Started late 2017.

There are a some ICOs that look promising if you care about profits, although they're technically not aligned with the vision of Bitcoin, but rather mass adoption of crypto in general.

Then some that could work out with decent ideas, but ultra high risk due to marketing and adoption and the imminent threat of bankruptcy due to bear market.



I am thinking one of the differences during the next bull market is that there won't be no ICO craze as in this last one. That's surely a positive thing that will make everything much more sane. Not so good for ethereum though.

Btw, have ANY of the ICO's actually delivered anything useful or profitable already?
I wouldn't be so sure about that. It would probably at least be much more cut throat though, as most people should've realized that buzzword filled toilet whitepaper doesn't mean shit. That could also imply more absurd gains for those that do make the cut, with even steeper losses for full blown trash.

I intend to watch the newcomers closely.
In a bull market some will do very well. Hopefully, not EOS.
The point is to absorb the gains obtained in those into more btc (before they crash).
That's been my game for a while now. Variable 10-40% in alts (depending on how hard they moon and how fast I dump) and skimming profits over to the BTC trading and BTC long stashes. Very pleased with the results and the on-going thrill despite bear markets.
868  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2018, 06:18:12 PM
I am thinking one of the differences during the next bull market is that there won't be no ICO craze as in this last one. That's surely a positive thing that will make everything much more sane. Not so good for ethereum though.

Btw, have ANY of the ICO's actually delivered anything useful or profitable already?
I wouldn't be so sure about that. It would probably at least be much more cut throat though, as most people should've realized that buzzword filled toilet whitepaper doesn't mean shit. That could also imply more absurd gains for those that do make the cut, with even steeper losses for full blown trash.
869  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2018, 04:41:18 PM


Thats a good one! But whats the chance that a no-coiner is going to want to read it? Most of them are already dead set on the "bitcoin is a bubble" theme.... All I hear is tulips this, pyramid that...



Thank you!



Wait, what? So you opened an 80x margin long by mistake, got the extreme luck that the price went in your favor and instead of thank the gods and close it and reopen with a more sane leverage you decide to... what? Let it go until you get rekt?
y house gone

More like: Oops, I accidentally got a house.... Well, not a house, but definitely a nice new car.
Not if you don't close the long. Reopening with half the profits at 40x would be quite a hefty gamble, but sensible. What you're doing implies a mentality that'll lead to more losses than you're prepared to handle. I hope for you that I'm wrong and wish you all the best, but damn.
870  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2018, 03:25:20 PM
The pump continues! Meanwhile on reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/a5y84e/03jan2019_bitcoin_users_on_brink_of_second/

Can somebody explain me what this guy is trying to achieve and what can be the consequences? FUD? Don't think it will be heavily supported but anyway....
The proposed action is actually significant, when seen in the context of Wall Street coming in, with bitcoin rehypothecation and all it entails.  Also fractional reserve on the exchanges... also... you get the idea.
Caitlin Long has been writing about the effects of a fork on rehypothecated bitcoins, but she wasn't the one who first realized the implications.  Trace Mayer mentioned it to her in an interview.
I think the Jan 3 "Proof of Keys" may have been Trace Mayer's idea, but I'm not sure.
The difference is that non-physical Bitcoin instruments will merely be like betting on the outcome of a horse race. They're unlikely to have a significant impact on the market as it matures.
871  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2018, 02:35:20 PM
Anyone have experience with Gunbot? I was thinking of getting a trading bot and trying it out and seeing if it is worth anything or I might just lose cash.
I don't have any experience with it, but chances are that it works well in more or less sideways markets or predictable channels, and gets wiped-out during bull-runs or dumps. Also, if you can buy the bot it probably sucks, because otherwise there would be no incentive for anyone to sell and thus ruin their own profit margin. And Gunbot licenses are pretty cheap, so I wouldn't expect much from it in the first place.
872  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2018, 02:31:25 PM
The second sounds pretty bullish to me. Especially considering that JPM got caught red-handed buying Bitcoin after calling it a scam/ponzi.
873  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2018, 01:52:29 PM
Here is an interesting opinion of Jim Rogers (which I completely disagree with, but i always like to listen to what opponents say):

https://youtu.be/tNSXWkApxU8?t=410

He basically says that if bitcoin/crypto would be successful, government can simply abolish it like England abolished scrip in the 30ies by making trading NOT in Bank of England notes (pounds) a TREASON.
Don't simply dismiss this, hopefully, wrong notion because he is an old fogie since this is Jim Rogers, again, who happens to know about commodity markets quite a bit.
He is not short, but not long either and acknowledges that he might be wrong in his skepticism.

I think that he is wrong because bitcoin provides a standard/reference point, is apolitical and not 'owned' by a particular government plus could accelerate the commerce in due course.
Being neutral would make it resistant to the moves that he described, unless there is cooperation among G20.
What do you guys think?

This would require a collaborate effort by every single government in the world of Economies that actually matter. Otherwise there will be individual countries not going that route, which would simply cause the windfall to exclusively benefit those that do not treat freedom of choice as treason.

In short, interesting to think about, but almost surely irrelevant when it comes to realistic outcomes.
874  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 11:28:13 PM
EVERYONE PAY ATTENTION TO ME!

HOLY SHIT. I ACCIDENTALLY LONGED AT 80x instead of 8x AT 3237. Talk about a lucky day! Of course I noticed my mistake but by the time I could correct it, we were impaled on a fast green dildo!



 Not bad.  So the beer's on you tonight?


Maybe not tonight. I am hanging on to this long for a while like a bad gambler with an alcohol addiction. Still kind of hoping for another pumperino. Bollinger band constricting, Palms are sweaty
Knees weak, arms are heavy
Vomit on my sweater already
Mom's spaghetti

Wait, what? So you opened an 80x margin long by mistake, got the extreme luck that the price went in your favor and instead of thank the gods and close it and reopen with a more sane leverage you decide to... what? Let it go until you get rekt?
y house gone
875  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 09:42:23 PM
I wonder if days like this drive r0ach to drink.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZoiJM1vlfc
876  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 09:38:56 PM
I wonder if days like this drive r0ach to drink.
Sewage? In the spirit of Jenkem.
877  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 07:10:59 PM
If we compare it with a Smartphone it was invented in 1992, the first good Smartphone came on the market in 2005, with a number of users of 2%, 7 years later 54%, 11 years later 81%, today no one doubts that a Smartphone be a very useful gadget, Bitcoin will not take so long.

They didn't require you to take a financial risk after having a deep ponder over the nature of money itself.

That's a stretch for most of the world's population.
Sure, but faster and cheaper transactions aren't a stretch. In good parts of Europe "real-time" wire transfers have just arrived, and they are neither free nor do they transfer to an arbitrary recipient. Exchange rates eventually becoming redundant with global adoption is anything but a stretch as well. It's just a matter of infrastructure, and where there is money to be made people will build.
878  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 06:47:38 PM
Touché.
879  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 06:30:55 PM
"major news"

Care to elaborate or trolling?
Technicals got pushed over the edge and we're going up (I'm still not really buying it though). Whales and MSM will be claiming major news. Just like they claimed major doom for the past year. If not now, then soon.
880  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 06:29:54 PM
The nerd in me just creamed his pants.
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