First, let me say that SatoshiDICE is awesome and I wish it the best.
High risk doesn't always mean high reward. The fact that Erik is taking the vast majority of the money to reinvest personally in Bitcoin should tell you what he thinks the better bet is.
Now, I'm all for diversification of one's portfolio but there are a lot of negatives here that have me failing to see the 10x valuation.
Apologies in advance if any of these have already been addressed in this thread:
Btcx – Thank you! Your comments are much appreciated, and it is refreshing to see some genuine, valid critique of the offering. As you took so much time to craft your concerns, I’m happy to address each in turn.
First, on your comment above that I’m taking “the vast majority of the money to reinvest personally in Bitcoin” – let’s remember that this is the vast majority of only a small minority of my ownership of SD. I am not trying to sell this casino in any way, shape, or form. I’m selling a tenth of it – basically a tenth of my claim to the future profits. I will be receiving the money raised in the form of Bitcoin, and of course, as I have a deep passion for Bitcoin, I’m not selling this for USD. This indicates my investment preference for BTC over USD, indeed, but it does not indicate a serious preference of BTC over SatoshiDICE. Again, I’m only selling a tenth of the later in exchange for the former. And, I’m only willing to even let that tenth go at the price starting at .0032 per share.
So it is thus accurate to say that I prefer 32k BTC instead of 10% of SatoshiDICE, but I would not prefer 15k BTC instead of 10% of SatoshiDICE. My investment preference only shifts to the BTC at the 32k for 10% exchange rate. Further, I wouldn’t sell another 10% for an additional 32k btc, for at that margin my preference shifts back to SD.
If some portion of the Bitcoin investment world has a matching inverse time preference to to mine, and is thus willing to pay 32k BTC for 10% of SD, then we all have a deal and the exchange is made. Otherwise, my exchange preference and that of the market do not align, and we continue on as we were.
1. Service is potentially illegal in many jurisdictions, including the US.
Perhaps. But so are a large number of Bitcoin businesses, including both MPEx and GLBSE themselves. The site is not hosted in the US, nor registered in the US, nor does it hold any bank accounts in the US. There is no reason to claim it is a US entity – it’s not an entity at all, it’s just a website that enables wagering with cryptographic coupons. Zynga Poker is legal in the US, because it doesn’t use “real money.” I think a fair argument can be made that SD is similarly legal.
With that said, there is no denying legality risk. If there were no legality risk, the offering price would be higher.
2. I can't tell if this is actually a registered legal entity, nor whether the paperwork has been properly done to allow investment and protect investors.
It is not a registered legal entity. It’s a website. I’m not sure what “properly allow investment” means. The terms are stated, they are clear, and I have signed them with provable identification. Bitcoin is a free market, and this is a voluntary contract. I understand most of the world does not operate in this way, but that’s part of the problem, and I’m spending my life fighting it. Not by protesting with signs and letters to congressmen, but by building alternatives and living by my principles.
3. The deal structure doesn't resemble so much a company taking investment as it does an individual shareholder selling shares. Your money, by in large, won't be reinvested in the company.
This is true. According to the prospectus, 10% is going to a very large European print campaign, and the new website has already been paid for. Beyond that, the funds are my own and I’ll do with them what I wish. Some will inevitably be spent furthering my remaining 90% stake in SD (my incentives in that regard are not changed at all by such a small equity offering), some will inevitably be spent on other BTC projects. Most of it will be saved for possible future opportunities in this world we’re trying to build.
4. Is Erik actively involved in growing the business full time or is he devoting the majority of his time to other projects?
Full time, no, but yes I’m actively involved in growing it. Everyone reading this knows about SD because I’ve grown it and I will continue to do so (it would be quite silly to work on a site of which I own 100% only to stop working upon owning 90%). And indeed, the site doesn’t require full time management. Part of its charm is the low overhead in time resources. My full time job is with BitInstant. SD is one of a handful of projects I work on.
5. It sounds like the company hasn't been keeping any reserves so if it does get hit with a big lawsuit or other expense, what happens? Does Erik come out of pocket?
This is false, the company has over 7k BTC in reserves currently. If there were legal challenges to SatoshiDICE, it would be deducted from net profits. Let’s remember here that the site currently earns 33k BTC per year in net profits, and can certainly afford legal assistance if needed, but if harmful legal attention was brought to SatoshiDICE we’d probably have bigger problems within the BTC world as a whole. Legal risk is part of the business – though investors in this IPO are not liable for anything, other than potential lost profits.
6. If the site is targeted for attack, as other gambling sites are, your hosting bill could quickly become $10k/mo, eating away 1/3 of the profits.
The site has been DDoS’d a couple times and this has not been a problem. By the nature of the structure, let’s remember that bets to the site are placed via the Bitcoin network, not the website, so in case of some massive attack on the site, we just post the bet addresses somewhere else temporarily and most players can continue playing without a hiccup. The only real attack against SD’s playability would be if the BTC network was under attacked and in that case, again, we have bigger problems.
7. Is it more likely or less likely that if Bitcoin is still around in 5 years it will have faced some form of regulation?
No idea… depends which country we’re talking about. SatoshiDICE needn’t exist in any specific country. It is not tied to a bank account.
Your question is more relevant to Bitcoin as a whole, and this of course is the great question we’ll all face in the coming years. By NOT investing in SD, you don’t really escape the risk you’re mentioning here, because in the case that BTC gambling was under legal attack, the value of the BTC you hold will drop substantially.
8. If Bitcoin goes bust, what of value is left for the shareholders? Does the business have any revenue streams not entirely dependent on Bitcoin?
If Bitcoin goes bust and is not replaced by another cryptocurrency, SD is probably worthless… but so are the BTC you chose not to invest, no?
If Bitcoin goes bust and another cryptocurrency arrives, SD would almost certainly adopt it and continue on (and this is fundamentally why Bitcoin, or the Bitcoin concept at least, will almost inevitably win against its competition).
9. Does the company possess any assets that are not easily replicable? Any especially valuable trade secrets, patents, trademarks or other intellectual property? How about even user information?
The brand name and massive ubiquity of the site are not easily replicable. The free advertising and word of mouth discussion the site gets from its current position is not replicable. Holding 6 of the top 7 addresses in the Bitcoin blockchain is not easily replicable. The business relationships and reputation I have with people are not easily replicable. The integration into blockchain.info’s wallet and mobile app are not easily replicable.
Beyond that, the concept can be (and is) copied.
10. Just because the clone attempts so far have failed, that doesn't mean future ones will. For $300k, someone could do a lot more than clone SD, and own 100% of it.
Can they do a lot more than SD if SD also raises 300k…? Ponder on that a while and you’ll discover one of the main reasons I’m doing this
11. A bet on a fully Bitcoin-dependent business is generally riskier than a bet on Bitcoin itself, and in this case the expected return doesn't justify it.
I fully agree with the first part of that statement, I say the same thing to lots of people. Betting on a Bitcoin company is almost certainly riskier than betting on Bitcoin itself. If the return you expect doesn’t justify it, then it’s best for you to stay in BTC. We can both agree that it is SatoshiDICE’s future which will dictate whether the investors at the IPO get a good return. At zero growth, perhaps it’s a wash given the opportunity cost of the coins. However, with even small growth in the site the dividends + share appreciation should make any investor who’s not seeking 7% returns per week happy.
12. What prevents Erik from taking a salary or hiring someone to replace him, or taking on other expenses that will drastically reduce profit? Is there a board of directors he works for?
In the prospectus and contract it states that SD doesn’t pay salaries and salaries wouldn’t be deducted from net profits. Good question, though.
13. Low barrier to entry.
See question 9, above.
14. Botched funding round eliminates any possibility for a serious company to purchase SD in the future.
Only if SatoshiDICE doesn’t grow and perform to a standard that the future investor would find attractive. There’s always a price for everything, and the price to buy 10% of SD today won’t be the same price in a year, and I can almost guarantee that. The gamble will be whether it’s higher or lower. Further, if not all the shares are purchased at this price, I wouldn’t call that “botched” – it just means the market disagrees with me on the valuation, and that’s fine. If the market disagrees with my valuation, life goes on, and I keep the shares and the profits in that case and will continue building it as I have been.
15. Acts of god.
This is a risk for all businesses everywhere, no? Holding your Bitcoins as you are now exposes them to acts of god… though I hear CoinBase’s new ewallet has a feature to protect against deity risk.
As someone with experience in investing in startups, I'm going to have to steer clear of this one. Even if all the business stuff were above board, I'd think that for all the negatives, the valuation wouldn't be greater than 2x, and even that's a stretch. Again, I'd much rather just put my money in to Bitcoin or save it for a promising Bitcoin business that actually needs it to grow, not just to cash out the owner. Anyway, can't blame Erik for trying. I'd gladly take his end of the deal all day long.
I respect your opinion, and greatly appreciate your questions. You say you’d gladly take my end of the deal all day long, but of course, the only way you can be in my position is to own a piece of SD so that when the Macau casino buys it you’ll be on the selling side…
Oh, and why raise the funds before the new site is launched? Usually, you launch your thing and then use that as a basis for raising money at a higher valuation.
This is a good point, and primarily I chose to release this a bit early because of the Pirate issues. I thought it’d be wise to offer an investment to Bitcoinworld that had transparency and profits which were A) verifiable and B) sustainable. If Bitcoiners are only looking for investments paying a few percent per week, I unfortunately have no idea how to offer such a thing.
Again, btcx, I sincerely appreciate the intelligent comments.
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