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1901  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: The bottom will drop out of the alt market soon on: May 15, 2016, 09:31:04 AM
... the only person more wrong on BTC than Anonymint is Armstrong.

You and Armstrong are both wrong on the future of BitCON:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1465136.msg14854131#msg14854131

As for the price action I predicted, stay tuned...

I think Armstrong will end up being correct about bitcoin (not surviving the other side of 2020) let's see..  Cheesy

It is not clear if it will destroyed or merely turned into a tool to confiscate wealth, and a better Paypal for the masses. My bet is the totalitarian variant of the future. Click the link above to find out why. Men need a tyrant.

I very much doubt it becomes a "better" Paypal for the masses for the simple reason that it isn't better.

I would be bet on failure over widespread usage of a coopted system. In fact I'd lay significant odds on that bet. (Though failure is somewhat difficult to define precisely -- let's say significant loss of value and usage.)
1902  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [neㄘcash, ᨇcash, net⚷eys, or viᖚes?] Name AnonyMint's vapor coin? on: May 15, 2016, 07:53:31 AM
Mods are deleting my factual posts from the Vcash (VanillaCoin) thread:


A reply of yours, quoted below, was deleted by the starter of a self-moderated topic.

The forum mods didn't, the Vcash scammers deleted it. Use the unmoderated thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1441959.0

Warning about self-moderated Vcash threads: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1472763.0
1903  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: POLL: Should the DAO approve Slock.it's proposal? on: May 15, 2016, 05:47:36 AM
Smooth, have you read the thread on the DAO forum about the Slock.it proposal? There literally hundreds of comments ripping it apart Smiley

No. Frankly I only have a small stake in DAO and I follow or am involved with a lot of different projects so it is a real PITA to visit all these separate forums. I have been following some of the discussion on reddit, but I didn't see a lot about the slockit proposal specifically. If there is something particularly useful please post or send me links.

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I think the most prudent thing would be for the DAO to take some time and get its shit together before even considering any proposal.

That is quite prudent, especially considering that the scale of DAO is now far beyond what anyone could have predicted. It needs to adjust and adapt.
1904  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: POLL - Which Crypto will be the first zero fee microtransaction coin with GUI? on: May 15, 2016, 05:33:47 AM
STEEM already does this, and has since the blockchain launched two months ago. No fees or PoW.

EDIT: No GUI unless you count a web wallet, so I guess it doesn't quite satisfy the OP
1905  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [ANN] Spondoolies-Tech - carrier grade, data center ready mining rigs [UNMOD] on: May 15, 2016, 03:41:50 AM
I have no idea why they deleted my posts discussing the reasons why "carrier grade" miners were a bad idea (or at best a risky bet on high BTC prices and continued rapid price appreciation that didn't pay off). It certainly doesn't improve my opinion of them though.

It was deleted in mistake, go ahead and post again.

I have a better suggestion that should help prevent any future mistakes: Let's just all stay here and carry on the discussion on the unmoderated thread.
1906  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Monero ICO on: May 15, 2016, 03:40:30 AM
here is Dashcoin, which Evan Duffield tried to buy and close, only to have the project switch repos and continue.

Yeah, what a success story

You're missing the the point: It couldn't be shut down like Crypti, just because the developer(s) wanted to cash in.

(BTW, while it's obviously a small coin and mocking or bullying it based on size is pretty pathetic, its value is higher than it was before the shutdown attempt.)
1907  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [ANN] Spondoolies-Tech - carrier grade, data center ready mining rigs [UNMOD] on: May 15, 2016, 02:39:53 AM
I have no idea why they deleted my posts discussing the reasons why "carrier grade" miners were a bad idea (or at best a risky bet on high BTC prices and continued rapid price appreciation that didn't pay off). It certainly doesn't improve my opinion of them though.
1908  Economy / Securities / Re: NastyFans: The Bitcoin Enthusiast Fan Club (est. 2012) on: May 15, 2016, 01:49:56 AM
Do can i joint it?  Huh

Normally yes, you can join by signing up on the web site (nastyfans.org) and buying one or more seats. However, I read something here about the nastyfans services being down (including seat trading?) so it may some time before that is possible again.

1909  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: POLL: Should the DAO approve Slock.it's proposal? on: May 14, 2016, 11:44:37 PM
The proposal should be approved for a small amount of seed capital after which the progress of development, and the quality of the financial disclosure (i.e. accounting for how it was spent), can be carefully evaluated for another possible small renewal.

This is especially critical given the new and experimental nature of the DAO concept and business model. If slock.it is able to abuse its privileged position (i.e. why is slock.it literally the only proposal on the DAO fundraising web site?) to syphon a large amount of funds from the DAO with minimal accountability, then the DAO will be a failure right from the start.

I have several thousand DAO tokens, treating it as an experiment, so in practice my vote counts almost not at all. My plan is to split off and retrieve my funds if I see the DAO having been 'captured' by slock.it and used as a piggy bank for imprudent and excessive spending on a very risky concept. For now that appears quite likely, but I suppose some miracle is possible.
1910  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Why would anyone buy this DAO crap? on: May 14, 2016, 11:23:52 PM
I bought a little because I got confused by all the mania and thought it was Powerball. When is the drawing?
1911  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Monero ICO on: May 14, 2016, 11:22:03 PM
Actually I mean just like LISK is doing now.

Monero is doing fine, near peak market cap after two years (a peer group you can count on one hand easily), good liquidity, etc. Just as it has outlasted countless temporariy-hot ICO, etc. projects that allegedly had better ways to pay for development, it will likely outlast LISK as well.

Furthermore, unlike projects such as Crypti, no one could "close the project" even if they wanted to. You would have to convince literally 100% of the developers and community members -- something that isn't ever going to happen -- otherwise the project would continue. A good example here is Dashcoin, which Evan Duffield tried to buy and close, only to have the project switch repos and continue.

I would guess these two observations are not unrelated. A good test as to whether a supposedly decentralized cryptocurrency is worth giving any attention at all is to consider whether it would be plausible for someone to close it down.
1912  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [neㄘcash, ᨇcash, net⚷eys, or viᖚes?] Name AnonyMint's vapor coin? on: May 13, 2016, 10:39:01 PM
You make an interesting comment at that linked post:

Quote
We know Haskell won't be preferred by many programmers, because it has been around a long time and is still stuck at 0.5% market share

The language popularity results have become quite a mess. While Java and C have slowly fallen out of favor and C++ popularity has collapsed, it isn't clear what is replacing them other than a lot of fragmentation.

It might be interesting to survey the top, say, 30 or 50 languages and reslice the data by features (and combos of features) to see what programmers want that way rather than looking at specific languages. As you say, anything (and by this I mean features or collections of features) that has been around for a long time and is not gaining in popularity is probably not a good bet any time soon.

1913  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: The bottom will drop out of the alt market soon on: May 13, 2016, 12:40:38 PM
There is leverage from lending BTC for income, but if holders fear counterparty risk and instead pull their coins off exchanges that will only squeeze the shorts and drive the price higher, potentially much higher. I don't think anyone really knows how much short leverage is out there.

If they fear counterparty risk, they will cause a stampede and cause counterparty defaults.

The slowdown in buying from n00bs, can cause the price to drop, which will cause the enriched shorts to pile on (cash out their initial investment and gamble the profits) overshooting to the lower low bottom. Plus all the copycats chasing the trend especially with the "world is falling down" hysteria.

V bottom on steriods. Buy the bottom same as in 2009.

I don't see any of this happening with BTC. I agree with r0ach that it is a lot like cash here. In a bank run, banks fail because people want cash, not deposits. Exchanges may fail because people want physical BTC but it won't make physical BTC less valuable, it will make it a lot more valuable.

But paradoxically people may want USD, especially cash, even more than BTC, which wouldn't be anything new, so the BTC price in USD may fall even though the deleveraging of BTC shorts is acting to push it higher.

r0ach, the problem is that most of BTC's current value is risk-on speculation. If speculators want to de-risk, then BTC goes down. That competes with wanting hard assets (driving BTC up), and it isn't clear which effect dominates. I suspect down, because I don't think BTC has matured enough to be viewed as a safe haven by anyone other than a few crypto heads. Someday it may get there, but not yet.


1914  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: The bottom will drop out of the alt market soon on: May 13, 2016, 12:03:47 PM
Exactly because their leveraged obligations and margin calls are in cash. And that is not Bitcoin "cash".

I don't think you're taking into account what demographic is actually being "squeezed" in a liquidity crunch.  The people who own most of these things (BTC) are already rich in the first place and have no debt.  The people who aren't rich and own them have some totally insignificant amount.

The real people getting squeezed are the middle class Americans with McMansions, private schools, and cars they can't afford.  What is the common denominator of that group?  They all own stocks and none of them own Bitcoin.  People on the bottom and middle are the ones being squeezed.  Stocks are mainstream, Bitcoin and gold aren't.  Therefore, the stock dump will be horrific while things such as Bitcoin, as long as the confidence level is high (from 12.5 block reward halving bubble gains) will not only not go down, but will probably be going up as a safe haven from banks that will Cyprus you because Bitcoin is cash without counterparty risk.

Well I lately more and more realize that Bitcoin is funnel where n00bs come in to buy and miners cash out. The stalwarts don't buy more, as they are few in number and already have their big portion.

So an interruption in the stream of n00bs might have a domino deleveraging effect, since many people loan their BTC short to earn extra revenue.

Leverage may be hiding where you think you see only HODLers.

Also with the halving and marginal miners not wanting to turn their ASICs into door stops, they may be in a more strained position and need to deleverage in a contagion.

There is leverage from lending BTC for income, but if holders fear counterparty risk and instead pull their coins off exchanges that will only squeeze the shorts and drive the price higher, potentially much higher. I don't think anyone really knows how much short leverage is out there.

I'm ignoring halving effects, miner ASIC doorstops, etc. I don't know how to analyze that.
1915  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: So what's the deal with smart contracts? on: May 13, 2016, 11:50:46 AM
Miners can not operate anonymously nor do anything useful with selfish mining or double spends as long as they are mining on pools, which the huge majority of the hash rate is currently doing.

Incorrect. Just by being on a large pool, they inherently are mining on the correct block more often than the minority of the hashrate, which instead have to wait for propagation delay.

That's not evidence of Bitcoin operating outside a Nash equilibrium, which was CfB's argument. Most of the hash rate 80%+ obviously mines on very large pools. The rest may do something else, and it might even be a bad decision on their part, but that little 20% doesn't really affect how Bitcoin operates.

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Also a mining farm mining (or oligarchy of them) with 33% of the hashrate even if mining on a pool, can still do the selfish mining attack without informing the pool. Remember Bitcoin never implemented Meni Rosenfeld's oblivious mining shares fix to prevent share withholding attacks. This is assuming the pool supports getblocktemplate so the miner can set his own transaction block hash.

I don't know which pools support getblocktemplate, but there's no evidence of anyone using it (most if not all ASIC gear just connects directly to the pool and uses stratum). Seems like that concept mostly died when Luke-Jr lost the original argument with slush.
1916  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: So what's the deal with smart contracts? on: May 13, 2016, 11:45:27 AM
Miners can not operate anonymously

Why? https://socrates1024.s3.amazonaws.com/consensus.pdf: "Abstract—We present a formal model of synchronous processes without distinct identifiers (i.e., anonymous processes) that communicate using one-way public broadcasts."

I haven't read that paper but from the abstract it isn't obvious how this would relate to miners on a pool which is almost all Bitcoin mining right now.
1917  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: So what's the deal with smart contracts? on: May 13, 2016, 11:29:36 AM
r0ach = Half of BTT? Well maybe there are lot of sock puppets on here, lol. 

Anyway, I don't think you can easily answer "how much reputation" cost, but you can't say that failure to take short term advantage is not a Nash equilibrium when reputational costs exist, because that is an alternate consistent explanation.

Miners can be anonymous, they can collude, frankly saying, this "reputation" topic doesn't look as a solid counterargument against the claim that Bitcoin operates out of an equilibrium.

Miners can not operate anonymously nor do anything useful with selfish mining or double spends as long as they are mining on pools, which the huge majority of the hash rate is currently doing. Only the pools themselves could do that, and they aren't anonymous.

If a large anonymous solo miners existed and had the opportunity to engage in selfish mining but didn't, your theory would be validated, but how could this ever be tested? I think it is impossible.

You could argue that a bunch of large miners would be better off on private pools or something, and by choosing to use public pools they are not in a Nash equilibrium, but the whole argument becomes complex, since pools benefit when other miners join them, so there is an incentive to be public, large visible actors such as Bitmain might be better off using a visible public pool since it isolates them from false accusations of misconduct, etc.

Also, the theory of selfish mining has some repeated game problems, since it assumes everyone else doesn't selfish mine. If others selfish mine, the defense is to selfish mine yourself, and if multiple large miners of equal size all selfish mine, then it is obvious none retains any advantage. If there are several large miners (or pools), they may be better off not bothering to start the conflict, especially given even small potential for reputational consequences.

1918  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: So what's the deal with smart contracts? on: May 13, 2016, 11:10:44 AM
That paper does not demonstrate any party is necessarily operating out of a Nash equilibrium. Selfish mining is detectable, so mining pools, being visible and identifiable entities, face reputational costs for engaging in it. That very plausibly makes it unprofitable. Also, some forms rely on network conditions that may not exist.

If there were some sort of undetectable or unattributable selfish mining known to be compatible with the current network conditions, and we could tell that weren't happening then you could correctly make the argument you did, but that is a contradiction.

I guess one time we might see a valid experiment would if a big pool does an exit scam. Under the reputational-cost theory, such a pool should selfish mine right before the exit, though it still might not be worth the trouble to actually implement for relatively modest gains.

We had Deepbit which got 51% of hashing power and noone detected an abuse attempt. We had GHash.io which got 51% of hashing power and an abuse attempt was detected.

What did keep Deepbit operator honest (they are Russians BTW, half of BTT thinks Russian = con-artist)?
How much reputation did that doublespending against a casino cost to GHash.io operator?

r0ach = Half of BTT? Well maybe there are lot of sock puppets on here, lol. 

Anyway, I don't think you can easily answer "how much reputation" cost, but you can't say that failure to take short term advantage is not a Nash equilibrium when reputational costs exist, because that is an alternate consistent explanation.
1919  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [ANN] Spondoolies-Tech - carrier grade, data center ready mining rigs on: May 13, 2016, 10:56:43 AM
But the SP20 isn't as loud (or at least isn't nearly as annoying) as the SP10; the form factor also made it more accessible than the SP20's rack case. And because the core voltage is fully adjustable it's still viable at some consumer-available electric rates a year and a half after it was introduced. I think that was his point.

I remember plugging in my first SP10 (one of the early non-preorder batches) when i was running a few S1 units. Within seconds i knew that this was not meant for home mining, the sound was horrific at full speeds.


I tink spondoolies greatest problem was that they designed an amazing combination of hardware and software in anticipation of BTC>$1000. The SP50 would have been a hands-down king of the hill if bitcoin prices were high enough to cover its expensive hardware component choices.

in terms of $/TH (not even including the specialty PSUs), the Sp50 would probably cost at least 50% more to produce that whatever bitmain sold as an S9/S10 competitor. In the midst of a mining race, the manufacturing is a trivial part of the final pricing, but when things reach an equilibrium (as it has over the last few months), sales prices realign with manufacturing cost and only the cheapest products find sales. This is why bitfury is well-posed to take the crown with thier simple string designs and software

I agree they apparently made high quality equipment (which I think they called "carrier grade") but frankly that was really, really stupid. This is not audiophile gear or even laptops, nor is it carrier gear.

Mining is 100% a commodity business that is set up to race to the bottom. Lowest costs wins.

If I remember you correctly from the good old days of mining, you've been a miner long enough to understand how important it is to optimize your costs and get the most from the least.

They might have been able survive had BTC prices stayed high, but it didn't make their strategy a good one.
1920  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XVC] Vcash (former [VNL] Vanillacoin) cryptocurrency unmoderated discussion on: May 13, 2016, 10:45:34 AM
EDIT: This reply was deleted from a moderated Vcash discussion thread. It is otherwise unmodified.

Ah, there he is, roflmao. Picture is complete. Changed from sockpuppet to your own account bro? You are bringing old news and we don't give a damn about it. You people make the first letter of fud become alive haha

FYI, I have no sock puppet accounts, and have never used any sock puppet accounts.

It isn't "old news" because last I checked, the Vcash code was still violating the Bitcoin license. I haven't checked very recently though, if he has addressed the issue constructively you can let us know, although that still doesn't excuse the false claims about having been written from scratch or that he built it from the ground up.
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