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1141  Economy / Speculation / Re: some large company about to invest heavily in BTC? on: November 10, 2011, 10:49:45 PM
lol, dwolla makes an announcement that they'll be announcing something.  Therefore, they're buying bitcoins!

When you're long bitcoins and have watched them fall a very long way, any news is good news, no matter how unlikely.

I hear Muammar Gaddafi was found with a USB stick in his possession.  May have contained a wallet.dat...
1142  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will not turn...... on: November 10, 2011, 10:47:25 PM
Looks like the next leg down has begun.

Yes. I introduced some friends that have years of trading experience and they had the same feeling on bitcoin. And while talking about this bitcoin thing they said "well, many stocks gone from $100 to $1 in matter of weeks, no need to panic. When stocks go really bottom, scavengers come and buy massively, reviving the stocks"

I would like to see a stock that has fallen 99% and then been bought and revived on a massive scale.  Government intervention because the CEO declared his business 'too big to fail' not included.
1143  Economy / Speculation / Re: 3 is the magic number, and the magic number is 3 on: November 10, 2011, 12:04:59 PM
Looks like bitcoin has reached a plateau of high stability.
1144  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: First Brazilian Bitcoin investment group: 6.97% in 15 days! New Group open! on: November 10, 2011, 05:00:20 AM
Unless the investment manager is very up front about the risks involved and acknowledges investors can lose their entire investment at any time, it has all the hallmarks of a scam.  Any return of over 10%pa needs to be approached with special caution.

If the manager truly has a special secret way of playing the market they wouldn't be advertising it.  They would keep it quietly to themselves while raking in the USD/BTC.
1145  Economy / Speculation / Re: 3 is the magic number, and the magic number is 3 on: November 10, 2011, 04:54:07 AM
Trading on volatility is all fine and good, until the market leaves you behind.



You made a fatal mistake with your graph there.  You should have used a log scale so that the drop from $18 to $3 doesn't look so scary  Cheesy
1146  Economy / Speculation / Re: 3 is the magic number, and the magic number is 3 on: November 07, 2011, 11:32:31 PM
The same was said at $5 and $14.
Well, they were wrong, and I'm right - this time it's different!  Smiley

Seriously, I think the big difference is that more miners are holding rather than selling, waiting for better prices, and marginal miners have stopped mining.  Volume has been dropping, and the combination of reduced price and reduced volume is allowing speculators like myself to keep up with production.

If many miners are stilling mining yet not selling their bitcoins to cover costs, that will create a massive overhang of bitcoins to sell off should the price move higher.  Anyone waiting for prices to be significantly higher than $3 will be very disappointed.

1147  Economy / Speculation / Re: did you buy a bitcoin today? or maybe yesterday? on: November 07, 2011, 10:10:12 AM
Bought one, and sold one.  The market is dead at the moment.  Little volume, no price movements.
1148  Economy / Marketplace / Re: [BETA] MTGox websocket API, testers wanted on: October 30, 2011, 11:00:19 PM
Websockets have been dead for about a week.  Nothing on MtGox's support page about it.  Does MtGox even know, or do they care?  It seems not.
1149  Economy / Speculation / Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented? on: October 29, 2011, 08:25:05 AM
$3.75!  We're well on our way back to $10+!  I can feel it, the boom is here and it's only going to get stronger.

Maybe....
1150  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's that time again! Rally is coming soon :) on: October 28, 2011, 01:31:05 AM
$3.25 peak, already down to $2.95.  Almost 10% off already.  I hope people enjoyed the rush.
1151  Economy / Speculation / Re: Number of users connected to MtGox Live on: October 28, 2011, 01:08:25 AM
Forget MtGox Live.  MtGox Websockets have been down for a few days now.  Tried to connect from two separate internet connections.  MtGox should get onto this quick, as it affects some bot traders.
1152  Economy / Speculation / Re: Requests to Santa Manipulator on: October 27, 2011, 11:59:33 PM
Did you leave out a plate of cookies and milk for Santa Manipulator, young man? Wink

Santa Manipulator prefers a good vodka.
1153  Economy / Speculation / Re: Has anyone reported bitcoin capital gains or losses on their taxes? on: October 26, 2011, 09:55:46 PM
When I converted bitcoins into dollars through BitPiggy and that money hit my real bank account, I declared the money as income.  Tax costs have always been included in my calculations for mining profitability.
1154  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many of you have been Zhoutonged? on: October 25, 2011, 02:04:07 PM
Bitcoin is so volatile I really don't see why people want to short it.  Today we saw the price go from $2.83 to $2.44 to $3 and back to $2.64 within 2 hours.  One super spike can wipe out most positions. 

Pick any moment in time and bitcoin could be worth 20% less or 20% more within minutes.  Impossible to predict.
1155  Economy / Speculation / Re: European bank accounts of exchanges are frozen on: October 24, 2011, 11:32:21 AM
Link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49664.0

Possibilities:

1. Bitcoins become harder to buy - i.e. price goes up

We're looking for more buyers to drive the price up.  Making bitcoins harder to buy can only make the price fall as liquidity disappears from the market, and those left holding bitcoins wonder if they can readily find a buyer in the near future.  It's only European accounts and not US, but still, it's a fair chunk of cash.
1156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Dropped below $3 on: October 24, 2011, 11:30:11 AM
Interesting spike from $2.92 or so to $3.08.  Pretty much instant up and down.  Asks all dried up to that level and the bids followed, then it dropped back down again.

Everyone pulled their asks suddenly?  Unlikely.  MtGox has a bit more explaining to do.
1157  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many of you have been Zhoutonged? on: October 24, 2011, 09:56:49 AM
Bitcoin is a project that supersedes national borders. It was created by a japanese guy, so please don't presume that american schools of thought have a monopoly on the bitcoin economy. There is no place for nationalistic sentiment on these boards.

Allegedly Japanese.  No one has met Satoshi, and it's unknown whether 'he' is a pseudonym for one or several people.  Bitcoin could have been created by a guy in Inner Mongolia for all we know, and given a Japanese name to increase its credibility.
1158  Economy / Speculation / Re: Dropped below $3 on: October 24, 2011, 09:12:00 AM
This is just the pause that refreshes.  The price will be well above $3 very soon.  Short term profit taking at the moment.

I don't want to sound like a 'bear' all the time (I prefer the term realist myself), so there's a bullish prediction.
1159  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am predicting a spike above $3 on: October 23, 2011, 01:25:54 PM
What Im pretty sure off, is that it would spur a slow, but more organic growth, like trade between individuals, "ebay" kind of stuff. Right now even on this forum, most things that are put up for sale are denominated in dollar, and can mostly be bought with dollars.

I remember buying a PCIE 1x to 16x adapter on eBay to use for mining (using USD$) and trying to sell it (unsuccessfully) on these forums for bitcoins.  Back then I wanted 1.6btc to cover costs.  Now I would need to ask for 8.  If I bought the adapter in bitcoins it's quite possible I would have sold it for the original number of BTC, plus whatever the postage cost would be in my currency.  It's virtually impossible to divorce one's self from every day money.  Postage in $3 bitcoins costs a whole lot more than it used to.

But then the gamblers took over and turned it in to a casino, driving up global prices and actually hindering trade. Most economist will tell you you need some speculation, to act as "grease", but more than 25% speculation is a recipe for bubbles and bursts, which hinder the economy, and for instance farmers now no longer use future markets, as it has lost its purpose and has become purely a casino.  In our bitcoin economy its far far worse than that, its more like 99% speculation and 1% trade.  So anything that gets that ratio down, even if only temporarily, I can only see as a good thing.

It does very much seem like we're replacing one semi regulated casino (share markets) with a completely unregulated casino. 
1160  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am predicting a spike above $3 on: October 23, 2011, 11:04:21 AM
If bitcoin cant survive the loss of Mt Gox, it doesnt deserve to survive. Sure there will be a PR blowback, but I think it would be one the best things that could happen for bitcoin to not have an easy way to cash in or out, for a while at least. That would really force everyone to use it as banter, as the only way to obtain bitcoins would be mining or conducting trade. The only way to unload your bitcoins would be buying stuff with bitcoins. Circulation of bitcoins would drop dramatically, but actual trade would likely spike and me thinks thats precisely what bitcoin needs.

If the only way to use bitcoins would be to trade them for good or services, how do those goods and service get purchased to make the trade?  There is one, perhaps two degrees of separation at all points in the chain between bitcoins and your national currency.

Then there is the question of why anyone would want to use bitcoins if that were the case.  Why trade in a market with a few hundred, possibly a few thousand participants, where using a conventional currency means you can trade with many millions?

Merchants love the no charge back feature of bitcoins, but customers hate it.  On another BitcoinTalk forum there's debate on whether a very cheap FPGA miner solution for US$499 is actually legit.  Those people who have signed up and paid the money all say 'if it's not legit, I'll get my money back through my card/PayPal'.  I wonder if they would be so keen if they had to pay up in bitcoins.

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