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1181  Economy / Speculation / Re: The manipulator is back!!! on: October 19, 2011, 01:04:15 PM
bitcoin prices will make another low at 60% probabilty and the buy trigger is quite far away: now 4$.

Any buying now carries the risk of catching a falling guiliotine knife.

Agreed, people seem to think btc will hit a bottom, and immediately turn stable and start increasing.  That isn't how it's gonna happen.  It will likely hit a bottom, it will rise a bit, then people will start selling before it dips again, people like minsc will go all in and buy a buttload, drive the price up a bit, people who didnt get to bail on the way down will bail before it drops again, causing another crash, people won't buy in this time, and it stagnates, drops a little further, etc.

It may well be the end of bitcoin we are watching.  Buyer beware.   

As long as the price keeps bouncing up and down, bots are feasting on simple trades.  I recently unleashed my custom written bot and it's doing rather nicely.  The only time I lose out is when the market has a massive surge up or down and doesn't retrace its previous levels (eg. trades at $5 are a pipe dream today).  I wonder how many purely human traders there are in the market?
1182  Other / Off-topic / Re: 1GH/s, 20w, $500 — Butterflylabs, is it a scam? on: October 19, 2011, 03:55:27 AM
Hey, if it's real I'll order one.  I appreciate the early adopters testing the waters by ordering.  Their reward is $100 off the product's final price if it is real ($499 vs $599), or chargebacks through PayPal if it isn't.
1183  Economy / Speculation / Re: Great Bidwall on: October 19, 2011, 12:52:23 AM
Bid 'wall' is gone.  I'm not surprised in the least.
1184  Economy / Speculation / Re: It Would be nice... on: October 18, 2011, 08:06:45 AM
If all you traders out there just ahad a little faith in bitcoin (put maybe 500USD, more than enough, and try and make as many bitcoins as possible instead of USD.

Would help a much more positive market rathern than USD n cashing out.

Im not very experienced but im sure it would help rather than playing for USD...

Am I wrong? if so, why?

Depends on the trader's motivation.  It's in no one's interests to see bitcoin fail.  I would define failure as the value either falling to cents per bitcoin, the depth disappearing or the volume traded per day falling to low levels.  Bitcoin itself won't "fail" as long as 1 miner is left mining.  But it can essentially fail through lack of liquidity.

We could put the question a different way: Do most share market traders actually care about supporting the companies they are trading?  Or are they just there to extract as much money, and as quickly, as possible out of the moving share price?
1185  Economy / Speculation / Re: Great Bidwall on: October 18, 2011, 08:03:07 AM
http://imagebin.org/179615

Someone set a ~$39,000 bidwall. Could be even larger, I counted only what's at 2.5. What impact can this have?

None.  It's purely psychological.  Try firing a few hundred bitcoins into it and watch it crumble.  Someone is trying to say 'look, bitcoin won't fall below $2.50'.  Trouble is, they did exactly the same thing at $3.50, $4, $4.50, etc.  Look where that got us.
1186  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bubble not yet popped on: October 18, 2011, 04:25:45 AM
No, it's a good proxy for overall bitcoin ecosystem sentiment.  They're bullish and expecting BTC to go up, not down.  Anyone expecting lower BTC prices (like me) has already shut down.

Peak hashing power was 5.4 gigahash on deepbit.   Currently at 3.1.  Looking like about 60% of us are still bullish.

I've just shut down my (deepbit) miner for another day, as 'free' power from my solar PV array has finished for today.  I wouldn't discount the possibility that a large proportion of miners on deepbit have 'free' power (solar PV, or stealing it from someone else), are on fixed power contracts (which will go up long after they finish mining due to the lag effect), or have some of the cheapest power on Earth and don't mind having hundreds of dollars in hardware producing cents per day.

Then there are the optimists, who see the current crash as temporary.
1187  Economy / Speculation / Re: If you're not out, get out. on: October 18, 2011, 03:09:11 AM
Of course... if either Nagle or Foo was confident in their predictive ability, they would've shorted btc at 5:1 leverage on Bitcoinica and made a fortune. They can still short if they're confident. But I'm guessing they prefer to make predictions without backing them.

If there had been Bitcoin options in June, offered by a counterparty strong enough to pay off if the price tanked, I would have bought some.

Bitcoinica is only a month old, and already their customers are complaining about troubles getting money out.  I wouldn't deal with any options dealer who didn't have a contractual commitment to settle by day T+3.  I suspect that a lot of people are going to end up holding the bag when the exchanges shut down.

Bitcoin also had a few 25%+ intra day upward swings on the way down too.  Just one or two of those events could have wiped out any position with Bitcoinica.

The market is too small and immature to provide a serious short selling service.  I doubt one will thrive with the current volatility.
1188  Economy / Speculation / Re: How much have you made/lost on investing in BTC? (including any hacking losses) on: October 18, 2011, 02:09:45 AM
Typical pyramid.  A few winners, a whole lot of losers, and a few lucky people breaking even.

Sounds a bit like most financial markets.  The one really important distinction between a classic pyramid scheme and bitcoin is that a pyramid scheme usually has an entry fee to pay the people further up the pyramid.  Bitcoin software has always been free.  There's also some valueless product being sold at the heart of the pyramid to make it look legitimate.
1189  Economy / Speculation / Re: No rally? on: October 17, 2011, 11:38:15 PM
I'm sure no one actually expected a rally after such a large drop.  A real rally, not the $2.26 -> $2.64 rally.  It's still a handy profit for the very few people who managed to catch it.

Right now bitcoin is a great day trading tool.  It's sadly not something I'd want to hold for more than a couple of days.  30% drop yesterday.  Yikes.
1190  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Great Bitcoin Collapse of 10/17/11 on: October 17, 2011, 11:02:28 PM
The Debt Collector: Bring out yer dead.
[a man puts a bitcoin on the cart]
Large Man with Bitcoin: Here's one.
The Debt Collector: That'll be $2.
The Bitcoin That Claims It Isn't: I'm not dead.
The Debt Collector: What?
Large Man with Bitcoin : Nothing. There's your $2.
The Bitcoin That Claims It Isn't: I'm not dead.
The Debt Collector: 'Ere, he says he's not dead.
Large Man with Bitcoin: Yes he is.
The Bitcoin That Claims It Isn't: I'm not.
The Debt Collector: He isn't.
Large Man with Bitcoin: Well, he will be soon, he's very ill.
The Bitcoin That Claims It Isn't: I'm getting better.
Large Man with Bitcoin: No you're not, you'll be stone dead in a moment.
The Debt Collector: Well, I can't take him like that. It's against regulations.
The Bitcoin That Claims It Isn't: I don't want to go on the cart.
Large Man with Bitcoin: Oh, don't be such a baby.
The Debt Collector: I can't take him.
The Bitcoin That Claims It Isn't: I feel fine.  Look at me! Already up to $2.60 and starting another bull market!
Large Man with Bitcoin: Oh, do me a favor.
The Debt Collector: I can't.
Large Man with Bitcoin: Well, can you hang around for a couple of minutes? He won't be long.
The Debt Collector: I promised I'd be at the Satoshis'. They've lost nine today.
Large Man with Bitcoin: Well, when's your next round?
The Debt Collector: The Weekend.
The Bitcoin That Claims It Isn't: I think I'll rise in value!
Large Man with Bitcoin: You're not fooling anyone, you know. Isn't there anything you could do?
The Bitcoin That Claims It Isn't: I feel happy. I am valuable!
[the Debt Collector glances up and down the street furtively, then silences the Bitcoin with his a whack of his cluestick]
Large Man with Bitcoin: Ah, thank you very much.
The Debt Collector: Not at all. See you on Weekend.
Large Man with Bitcoin: Right.
1191  Economy / Speculation / Re: Crash to $2 imminent. Willing to bet. on: October 17, 2011, 10:40:28 PM
Even the fanciest log graph isn't likely to put a gloss on 90% price drop from peak.

But why compare to a peak that was nothing but a speculative bubble? Compare it to 12 months ago and it still looks good Smiley Particularly if you take into account the increased numbers of coins since then.

Why compare today's bitcoin price to 2010, when hardly anyone mined or even knew about bitcoins?  The vast majority of miners joined in April and May, when prices were already above $5.
1192  Economy / Speculation / Re: Crash to $2 imminent. Willing to bet. on: October 17, 2011, 03:24:33 PM
Wow, I leave for a couple of hours and someone broke bitcoin.  $2.26.  Just... wow.  I'm honestly surprised the market has capitulated so fast and deep.

Some posters have blamed the bears on this forum for the fall from $20+ to $2.  Well, if a few bears are enough to crash an entire market then bitcoin has very serious problems. 

Can we finally bury the notion that bitcoin is in a bull market?  Even the fanciest log graph isn't likely to put a gloss on 90% price drop from peak.

At least now we should see miners quitting en mass, and returning the difficulty level to something more realistic.  50% off would be nice.  I can't believe the majority of miners left out there are power thieves or on fixed contracts.
1193  Economy / Speculation / Re: Crash to $2 imminent. Willing to bet. on: October 17, 2011, 09:06:22 AM
I hope price drops to $1 or below. The resulting difficulty will make solo mining feasible again.

i agree, but there would be a long delay before we'd see such a difficulty... i wonder if it will go under a million soon.

If difficulty doesn't suffer another hefty drop in the next two weeks, miners are irrational.  The bottom appears to be falling out of the market and it doesn't make sense to keep mining at a hefty loss.
1194  Economy / Speculation / Re: $3.20 is the new $3.68 on: October 17, 2011, 09:03:49 AM
Time to change the title again  Shocked
1195  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you think the real leading Price indicator is? on: October 17, 2011, 09:02:50 AM
For a currency where everyone can see everyone else's transactions, there seems to be precious little information about who (as a general group, not individual) is dumping bitcoins right now.  Early adopters getting out?  People who speculated in June/July/August and lost cutting their losses? 
1196  Economy / Marketplace / Re: [BETA] MTGox websocket API, testers wanted on: October 17, 2011, 07:33:09 AM
I have just been informed on #mtgox IRC that websockets are read-only.  Have been for a number of weeks.  Subscriptions don't work and it's not possible to view your own executed trades.

It's possible get around this limitation, but it really makes the system slow and a bit cumbersome to use.  It would be so much more convenient to get instant confirmation of your own trades.
1197  Economy / Speculation / Re: $3.68 is the new $4. on: October 17, 2011, 05:24:23 AM
Not early adopterS, early adopter.  Only one can cash out, the others must hold the bag until the recovery many months later.  One teen with 50k coins can take us to parity with the dollar.  Oh, and rebuild his position on coins afterward, too.

Oh, closure of the #3? #4? btc exchange counts as bad news.  They couldn't function on tiny $/day volume.

MtGox has 90% of the market anyway, with TradeHill making up most of the rest.  I don't really see an exchange with maybe 1% market share closing as being particularly bad news.

The last acknowledged exchange hack was several weeks ago of a minor exchange.  A few thousand bitcoins at most. 

If MtGox has financial problems then we can stick a fork into bitcoin and declare it done.  Without MtGox people would have extreme difficulty in converting their bitcoins into cash (and vice versa), and the price would collapse to cents per bitcoin overnight.
1198  Economy / Speculation / Re: $3.68 is the new $4. on: October 17, 2011, 05:06:00 AM
Massive dump of bitcoins to $3.12 and a weak rebound to $3.20.  Is this it?  Are early adopters who didn't sell off months ago, now in sell off mode?  No recently announced hacks, no bad news, so it seems someone with a lot of bitcoins is exiting the market.
1199  Economy / Marketplace / Re: [BETA] MTGox websocket API, testers wanted on: October 17, 2011, 03:38:46 AM
You need to include certain bytes before and after every json message. I think no newlines. This would be hard to do in telnet. I suggest taking a hard look at this post which has haskell code that I think would still work:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5855.msg87198#msg87198

That works fine.  I wasn't sending the \x00 and \xFF at the beginning and end of each message.

I can successfully unsubscribe from the depth feed using:
{"channel":"24e67e0d-1cad-4cc0-9e7a-f8523ef460fe","op":"unsubscribe"}

However when I try to resubscribe I get the following error:
{"message":"Unknown command","op":"remark","success":false}

I have tried all sorts of combinations of subscribe messages, but none seems to work.  I also can't subscribe to my own channel.

The following all fail:
{"channel":"24e67e0d-1cad-4cc0-9e7a-f8523ef460fe","op":"subscribe"}
{"channel":"24e67e0d-1cad-4cc0-9e7a-f8523ef460fe","op":"mtgox.subscribe"}
{"op":"subscribe","channel":"24e67e0d-1cad-4cc0-9e7a-f8523ef460fe"}
{"op":"mtgox.subscribe","channel":"24e67e0d-1cad-4cc0-9e7a-f8523ef460fe"}
{"op":"subscribe","24e67e0d-1cad-4cc0-9e7a-f8523ef460fe"}
{"op":"mtgox.subscribe","24e67e0d-1cad-4cc0-9e7a-f8523ef460fe"}

I looked at the haskell code and tried that subscription message first, then tried various other combinations.

hPutFrame h $ "{\"op\":\"mtgox.subscribe\"," ++ key ++ "}"
1200  Economy / Marketplace / Re: [BETA] MTGox websocket API, testers wanted on: October 17, 2011, 01:26:20 AM
You need to include certain bytes before and after every json message. I think no newlines. This would be hard to do in telnet. I suggest taking a hard look at this post which has haskell code that I think would still work:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5855.msg87198#msg87198

Thanks for that.  I'll try putting \x00 before my message and \xFF after and see how that goes. 
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