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1241  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why is crossing any whole dollar price so psychologially difficult? on: October 03, 2011, 11:09:47 PM
Bitcoin's stagnant price around $5 is terrible news for investors, but great for people who want to use it as a currency.  Imagine being a merchant selling products in bitcoins, and seeing bitcoins' value swing 20% on a daily basis.  Few merchants would tolerate such violent swings that could put them at a profit or loss on a daily basis.  Such swings were common during some trading days of the past few months.

A stagnant price gives merchants certainty.  If bitcoins remain valued at $5 until at least the end of the year that would be the best thing for bitcoin's future. 
1242  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again on: October 01, 2011, 05:53:08 PM
You mean like Bank of America?
You could have stuck a fork in BofA years ago, if it weren't for the bailouts they've received.  I doubt bitcoin will get such tender loving care.

Bitcoin is too big to fail!  Cheesy lol lol  Cheesy

The next time BoA fails, USA will print more money, making your money worth less. lol

If the USA prints more money then my money will be worth more.  Not everyone on this forum lives in the USA.
1243  Economy / Speculation / Re: Former Bear Turned Bull on: October 01, 2011, 05:51:35 PM
Something else worth considering is that bitcoins outperformed the stock market and gold and silver and some currencies over the last month to three months.

Two months ago bitcoins were worth over $10.  Four months ago they spiked to $30.  You do know bitcoins are worth $5 today, right?  I missed the part where any major stock market has fallen over 50% in the last couple of months.

The lack of correlation is a great asset though I would expect it to negatively correlate when people start to recognise it as a true safe haven currency.

How many bitcoins have you really bought?  Making statements along the lines of the public realising that bitcoins are a true safe haven currency is laughable.  Not even a super bitcoin bull would believe that.
1244  Economy / Speculation / Re: Kodak The Wheels Come off on: October 01, 2011, 05:44:06 PM
Not every traditional film company suffered with the growing popularity of digital cameras.  Fuji did pretty well to reinvent itself and sell digital cameras.  The early Kodak digital cameras were not even made by Kodak: they were outsourced Chinon designs.
1245  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again on: October 01, 2011, 09:41:46 AM
now who's gonna bail us out?

Flooz, Beanz and E-gold.
1246  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally is starting on: October 01, 2011, 09:39:09 AM
I think it will keep going up, but it shot up so fast I think a lot of people just on board the sell bandwagon. Rather then panic buying, people started selling to take advantage of the sudden spike. Hopefully it shall continue its climb, and/or have a less sudden spike like rally.

I attack any spike with sells simply because the spikes do not last.  I'm sure others do the same.  If you know the price isn't going to hold but you can make a tidy profit, you take what you can.

It is normal in a bottom forming process to give many false signals and kick out the weak hands, like you
What is a "bottom forming process"?

Look for example on the USD index botton forming recently. It was a long process of ups and downs until finally it shot up.

The thing about looking at graphs and trying to predict the future is you can only do it after its happened, by which time it's too late to trade.  Using the example graph, the US dollar is like the least ugly girl still available at the school formal.  She's the best choice of a bad bunch.  The other currency rocketing up in value right now is the Japanese Yen, a currency issued by the most indebted first world government in the world (GDP ratio wise) with a rapidly aging population and one which would be instantly bankrupt if they didn't rely on their own citizens to buy out the debt and pay very low interest rates.

Bitcoin could well be forming a 'bottom'.  People have said 'it can't go much lower!' for the past few months but I agree that much below $5 would be getting a bit silly.  The question is, is there anything to push us up to $10, $20 and beyond?  There are moves to make payment for goods via bitcoin enabled mobile phones available, but the idea is one converts the bitcoins to dollars as soon as possible.  Merchants aren't currency traders and generally don't want to take on the risk.  I have yet to see an honest idea that truly signals bitcoins are poised to head much higher.
1247  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally is starting on: October 01, 2011, 08:21:07 AM
I think it will keep going up, but it shot up so fast I think a lot of people just on board the sell bandwagon. Rather then panic buying, people started selling to take advantage of the sudden spike. Hopefully it shall continue its climb, and/or have a less sudden spike like rally.

I attack any spike with sells simply because the spikes do not last.  I'm sure others do the same.  If you know the price isn't going to hold but you can make a tidy profit, you take what you can.

It is normal in a bottom forming process to give many false signals and kick out the weak hands, like you
What is a "bottom forming process"?

It's someone sitting at McDonald's sucking down Quarter Pounders like they're going out of style.  Their bottom is forming quite nicely  Cheesy
1248  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally is starting on: October 01, 2011, 08:19:56 AM
I think it will keep going up, but it shot up so fast I think a lot of people just on board the sell bandwagon. Rather then panic buying, people started selling to take advantage of the sudden spike. Hopefully it shall continue its climb, and/or have a less sudden spike like rally.

I attack any spike with sells simply because the spikes do not last.  I'm sure others do the same.  If you know the price isn't going to hold but you can make a tidy profit, you take what you can.

It is normal in a bottom forming process to give many false signals and kick out the weak hands, like you

Someone (or some persons) have repeatedly tried to start a rally by initiating a buying frenzy.  No news about new innovative bitcoin products that people want to use, no major retailers taking up bitcoins, nothing to support the rally.  The smart money sees through the hype and knows when to take advantage of the situation.  If I'm wrong then all the low Asks will be pulled much higher and stay there the next time someone decides to get frisky with their trading.  
1249  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hold your horses. on: October 01, 2011, 06:08:19 AM
Nobody admits to buying at 30, 20, 15, and even 10 -- and yet, that's where the highest volume of $ traded hands.

Nobody likes to admit they lost money, or they participated in loser trades.  When's the last time you had a friend run up to you and say 'guess what! I lost $1000 at the casino last night!'  Cheesy

A lot of people got burned up the way up to $30 if they didn't quickly sell on the way down.  The 'buy and hold' crowd are deep in the red.  Few people possessed bitcoins of any value prior to the spike as they weren't popular before early 2011.
1250  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally is starting on: October 01, 2011, 06:03:28 AM
I think it will keep going up, but it shot up so fast I think a lot of people just on board the sell bandwagon. Rather then panic buying, people started selling to take advantage of the sudden spike. Hopefully it shall continue its climb, and/or have a less sudden spike like rally.

I attack any spike with sells simply because the spikes do not last.  I'm sure others do the same.  If you know the price isn't going to hold but you can make a tidy profit, you take what you can.
1251  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again on: October 01, 2011, 03:01:32 AM
You mean like Bank of America?
You could have stuck a fork in BofA years ago, if it weren't for the bailouts they've received.  I doubt bitcoin will get such tender loving care.

Bitcoin is too big to fail!  Cheesy lol lol  Cheesy
1252  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally is starting on: October 01, 2011, 02:57:56 AM
The 'rally' let me sell off some bitcoins at a nice profit when some silly sausage decided to spike the price to $5.35.  Well done, sir  Cheesy
1253  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why is crossing any whole dollar price so psychologially difficult? on: October 01, 2011, 02:56:50 AM
People make a big deal of the Dow Jones index falling below 10,000 (it will do so again shortly) but not 10,100 points.  People like to watch the odometer in their car tick over to 100,000km but don't give a toss about 99,912.  We like nice whole numbers that look pretty, even if they have no real significance.  I personally like to place my trades at $5.072912 or something just to make it random.
1254  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hold your horses. on: September 30, 2011, 10:29:43 AM
I think these washouts are a good thing, at this stage. Those early adopter and early heist and "teenage millionaires" bitcoins need to be redistributed. The lower it goes the better bitcoins get spread out among investors and general public. It is a good thing in my book.

So... do not hold your horses, do panic. The sooner we get a capitulation event the sooner we move on.

What I would say is people who invest their lunch money on bitcoins should leave as soon as possible, for their own good. Those who remain should be able to afford losing their entire investment without commiting suicide.

Investors need to man up and dump their fortunes into bitcoins.  Like, right now, when I have plenty of Asks on MtGox.  What happens to their fortunes after that doesn't concern me in the slightest  Cheesy
1255  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again on: September 30, 2011, 10:27:22 AM
Indeed. The dotcom bubble recovered eventually and the same will happen with Bitcoin. Due to Bitcoin's size we're simply looking at a much faster recovery in real time. It's not going to take years because Bitcoin time is faster, we're looking at months. I'm expecting a recovery soon, but within 6 months for sure.

The Dotcom bubble recovered?  When did that happen?  I recall the vast majority of dotcoms either racing towards IPOs with dubious business plans and subsequently crashing, or not getting to the sacred IPO and burning up all their capital.

The dotcom bubble was replaced by another bubble created by ultra cheap debt: the housing bubble.  But the dotcom bubble itself burst and never recovered, save for a few online businesses that were successful even before the bubble.
1256  Economy / Speculation / Re: Sudden jump in Chinese users. on: September 29, 2011, 09:40:22 AM
The Chinese love to gamble.  In casinos, on the share market.  Bitcoin offers them a great chance to have a play.  If more mainland Chinese are taking notice of bitcoin this could be great for the price.  At least it will lead to some wild price swings.
1257  Economy / Speculation / Re: My prediction: Bitcoin will flatline until the big event in 2012 on: September 29, 2011, 01:02:17 AM
I'd like to say I'm surprised people are bringing up the Mayans but I'm not... this forum is just like that.

The Mayans predicted you would say that
1258  Economy / Speculation / Re: My prediction: Bitcoin will flatline until the big event in 2012 on: September 29, 2011, 12:10:15 AM
That's like saying the world will end after the last minutes of December 31st, that's the end of the calendar...
Actually their calender ends at Dec 21.
But it isn't a arbitrary date either like our calender "after Jesus Christ" but rather calculated to coincide with unique constellations of the solar system.

In a manner of speaking it is the ultimate Astrology... if you believe in that Wink  
That's why McKennas I'Ching stuff (Timewave Zero) happens to end at the same moment as the Mayan Calender.

The Mayan calendar affects me just as much as Jupiter traversing 'near' the moon means I'll have a bad day tomorrow.  I had a conspiracy minded friend once who swore that in 1999 the world would end because the planets would line up and cause 'powerful forces' to destroy Earth.  He didn't seem to remember that prediction a few years later.  Funny that.

Maybe the Mayans just got bored with writing a calendar hundreds of years into the future and decided to stop.  The calendar on my wall finishes at 31 December 2011.  I guess that's the end of the world as there's nothing after that.
1259  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why has bear sentiment gone up again? on: September 28, 2011, 01:55:56 PM
BOOM.  Someone just fired more than 3000 bitcoins into the Bid 'wall' of $4.80, and it comes crashing down.  Rather interesting to see.
1260  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why has bear sentiment gone up again? on: September 28, 2011, 11:19:49 AM
We need new suckers, and we need them NOW.
There's one born every minute.

Unfortunately for the Bitcoin enthusiasts, they're off doing something else.

There's a steady supply of suckers, but unfortunately they need to come furnished with a large supply of cash too.  A poor sucker isn't much good to us.
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