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1521  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mt Gox having issues again on: July 31, 2011, 03:12:28 PM
Looks like database issues / hacks to me again, some hundreds of millions of fake USDs introduced into system and everything went kaboom: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=33185.msg0;boardseen#new

Seems that way.  Ideal time to launch another attack on Mt Gox (if it is indeed an attack).  Midnight on Sunday night when no one is likely to be around at Mt Gox in Japan. 
1522  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mt Gox having issues again on: July 31, 2011, 02:27:31 PM
are you 'speculating' mt gox is having issues again? Cheesy

Interesting news for speculators.  Price skyrockets from under $13 to $14.20 before all trade is suspended and all ask/bids disappear.  Will the trade be rolled back?  Things are slowly being restored now, but there is a chasm between asks and bids.  Asks $14.50+, bids around $12.60.  Probably Mt Gox having problems and hopefully not someone getting tricky with stolen accounts again.
1523  Economy / Speculation / Mt Gox having issues again on: July 31, 2011, 02:06:41 PM
Day low price just went to $2 (as reported on Bitcoin Charts), high was $14.2, and now all trades have disappeared.  Not really good enough.
1524  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will reach 5-6 dollars within 1-2 months on: July 31, 2011, 10:48:01 AM
There are real uses for Bitcoins at this moment.

You can transfer money taxfree over the world.
Paypal is getting bad press.

But I think you could be right.

Also...
I predict that there will be a lot of other kind of predictions in a predictions thread.

Correction: You can transfer bitcoins around the world tax free.  If you want to convert bitcoins to money, you then need to feed it through an exchange and a bank to get the cash.  There are fees there. 

PayPal is always getting bad press.  Has been for almost a decade, yet it's still around and as popular as ever.

Bitcoin's value is slowly limping along and falling.  $13.18 as I write this.  There are the usual excuses, such as this being the weekend, and that Dwolla transactions are delayed until Monday so traders can't take advantage of the low low bitcoin prices.  There is nothing new here, and everyone expects a dip on the weekends so there is nothing natural about it.  Bitcoin is in a natural, slow, gradual decline.
1525  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price rise after the 25 day MtGox 0% trade fee is lifted on: July 24, 2011, 02:47:29 PM
To get sustainable BTCUSD price rallies, more investors / traders need to join and add funds.

This is a key area the community could focus on.


We need to concentrate on real world bitcoin services and uses to attract people.  Trying to attract more money any other way just looks like members of a pyramid scheme trying to get more funds into the system.
1526  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price rise or fall this weekend? on: July 23, 2011, 08:32:19 AM
Looks like so many people anticipate the weekend dip that it's currently doing absolutely nothing.  Still trading in the $13.50-$13.70 range.
1527  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Bitcoin mining at 20 cents per kwh on: July 23, 2011, 08:30:52 AM
Assuming you're running at about 1.9 Mhps/Watt, that puts your average power-consumption at 1,750W (1.75kW) which is 1260kW per 30 days or $252 USD per month. 3.2 Ghps at current 1.69m difficulty @ $13.7 USD/btc is pretty close to $800/month.  That's how I'm guessing how you're close to $550/month.

An assumption about the 1.9Mhps/watt can only be made if running old hardware that's very difficult to obtain (5xxx series cards).

My set up: AMD 145 CPU, mATX mobo, 2Gb RAM, 30Gb SSD, 6950 (cannot unlock shaders any more).  330Mhash/s, slightly overclocked, RAM downclocked to half, fans at 25%, 80Plus PSU.  Using an accurate power meter it consumes 205 to 210 watts, depending on fan activity.  That's 4.75kWh per day, or 142.5kWh per 30 day month.  It produces around 0.2 BTC per day, and since I pay the equivalent of US 25c per kWh it costs me $1.19 to get $2.72 of income.  $1.53 per day.  Then take out income tax, which few people add to the calculations as they think they'll never get caught when miscellaneous USD$ appears in their accounts, and it's close to a dollar per day.  $30 per month on hardware that today costs about $350.  It's difficult to get excited.

If I could unlock the shaders or overclock further the calculation would be slightly more favourable, but power consumption goes up with hashing speed too.  Adding a second card to the PC is not that efficient as you gain by not doubling up on power consumption by the RAM/mobo/PSU, but you pay the penalty of the CPU now running at 100% due to dodgy OpenCL drivers.
1528  Economy / Speculation / Re: Long, slow slide on: July 22, 2011, 03:27:17 AM
Its looking like the slide might be over..finally..

Funnily enough if BTC's price remains relatively static and doesn't budge from $13 to $14 for the next 3 months that would be the best possible thing to happen to bitcoin.  It wouldn't make the traders and speculators happy, but it would remove the extreme volatility that makes bitcoins very unattractive for real commerce.  Long may the mediocre price continue :-)
1529  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Is "casual" mining still sustainable? Is buying a new rig stupid? on: July 22, 2011, 01:51:31 AM
If I were to spend $700 on a mining rig and get 600 MH/s out of it, and get it online in a week from today, would it pay for itself eventually?

Depends on your power costs.  That PC would recover its costs within 6 to 12 months.  You've also got to count on bitcoin's price dropping below $10 in your calculations.  Depending on your climate the extra heat generated may be welcome in winter, but cause even more power consumption in summer.  It's the hidden cost of cooling that most miners never take into account.

Many people once hoped that bitcoin's value would continue to go up with difficulty, yet for the past several difficulty increases this has proved to be the exact opposite.  Price goes down with increased difficulty.  As difficulty goes up the hype of getting rich by running your GPU flat out disappears, and with it the interest of new people to keep the whole thing going.
1530  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wednesday is RALLY day!!! on: July 21, 2011, 11:55:58 PM
Yea the problem lately though is trying to figure out when the weekend actually begins and ends lol

The weekend dip is becoming longer.  I suggest we ask Rebecca Black about the weekend and when it starts.  Friday, according to her.
1531  Economy / Speculation / Re: namecoin? big buying opportunity? on: July 21, 2011, 10:31:28 AM
Is there any plans or is it even possible to register other TLDs using namecoin? Otherwise, I don't see it as an opportunity in anyway.

What I would like to see is a plan on how Namecoin's supporters plan to get ordinary people to use their TLDs in conjunction with the global standard.  There has to be a way to get millions of ordinary Internet users to favour namecoin TLDs to make namecoin mining worthwhile.
1532  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hold on to your seats. on: July 21, 2011, 12:28:45 AM
The past increase in difficulty to 1,690,906 was one of the smallest in a while. This may change a few things when it comes to the 'cash out' or 'turn off rig' expectations.

It seems there are not as many people using free to 0.10kWh power as is often claimed on these forums.  If someone is mining with US 10 cent power they should still be adding as much capacity as possible.
1533  Economy / Speculation / Re: If I were a gambler who accept bitcoin. However, on: July 20, 2011, 12:09:58 PM
If there was a way to get bitcoins into and out of Pokerstars (or other major poker site) then bitcoins would suddenly become quite popular with US citizens.
1534  Economy / Speculation / Re: If 272.000 people today each owned 25 Btc bitcoins would be out of supply. on: July 20, 2011, 04:45:29 AM
Just a thought about how rare they are.
It only takes a few people to believe in bitcoins for them to go out of supply.

Thats how rare they are.

This calculation very much reminds me of the silver bulls, who sometimes write that if every American bought just one ounce of silver they could drive the price up by X, where X is usually 2 to 3 times.  The fact that the vast majority of Americans have no care for holding silver bullion doesn't stop the wishful thinking.  An even smaller percentage of those people would have any desire to own bitcoins.

It seems to me bitcoins are being pushed in two opposite directions.  One crowd wants to use them as a Free currency (free of government interference).  Money for the people by the people.  The other crowd wants bitcoins to rise in value (preferably exponentially) so they can make a fortune selling for government currencies.  The two are mutually exclusive, seeing as bitcoin is a highly deflationary currency.  The fact that bitcoins lost to crashed hard drives can never be regained makes the case for far fewer than 21 million ever being possible in existence.
1535  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wednesday is RALLY day!!! on: July 20, 2011, 04:38:20 AM
This is merely the pre-rally for the rally!

Let's get it to $17 before Fri.

I wanna see it.

I want to see it too... so I can sell a whole bunch of bitcoins before the price reverts to the $13.50 - $14 range.
1536  Economy / Economics / Re: low price because of repeated large sells on: July 19, 2011, 01:42:58 PM
losing 24% of your wealth in a span of 30 minutes. 

You can't deny that all it takes is one of those 3-4 individuals to make a massive sell orders for bitcoin to decrease say another 25-50% almost instantly.

I believe this will happen several times, but once it is done with the massive upside will start to rear its head.

You don't lose any money until you cash out. If you do not sell when the price drops, you have not lost any money.

That is of course true.  If you don't sell the asset at a lower price then you haven't realised the losses.

However, it's also the game US banks are playing with toxic CDOs.  They're currently marked to model, not marked to market.  The bank may say they're worth 90c in the dollar when really they're 30c.  Even though the bank has not sold the asset, and therefore not realised the losses, those losses are real and genuine.  They affect bank reserves and can cripple future lending.

Recently I applied for a mortgage and the broker wanted to know what my assets are worth right now, not when I bought them or what I think they're worth.
1537  Economy / Economics / Re: Bernanke explains why gold is not money. on: July 19, 2011, 01:38:11 PM
I can't watch the video right now but...

RP: "Why don't they hold diamonds?"
Bernanke: Long silence..... "Well its tradition, long term tradition."

Unlike gold, diamonds are not fungible, that's why they can't be money.
Maybe gold is money because of tradition but right now gold is money, if it wasn't its price would be different.
I don't want gold to be money, but is better than the dollar. And is money, that's a fact.
In some parts of the world is even used as direct medium of exchange. See the gold dinar.
See what happened to the guy that proposed it as an African international currency (Gadaffi).

Indeed.  Diamonds would be a rotten way to store value.  They come in many various grades with different colours, inclusions, and clarity ratings.  Investment gold only comes in 2 grades and you're usually guaranteed that 24 carat gold is 99.99% pure.
1538  Economy / Speculation / Re: was so happy when it was at 14.7 on: July 19, 2011, 04:49:54 AM
I sold at 14.6, waiting for the market to drop again so I can rebuy.  What does surprise me is how quickly the market dropped back.  Currently at $13.70.  I was prepared to wait until the weekend to buy again.
1539  Economy / Speculation / Re: Long, slow slide on: July 19, 2011, 03:19:45 AM
Question is, what is the "mean" that we will return to?

The long term average value of bitcoins is under a dollar, but even the most pessimistic speculator is unlikely to believe that's achievable unless there is a severe disruption to how bitcoin works (hack, economy collapse, government intervention, etc).

Currently there is a slow and steady trend downwards.  I'm using any upward spikes to sell bitcoins.  Did quite well today at $14.60, just shy of the temporary $14.70 peak.  I'll buy in again should the value drop to $12.50.
1540  Economy / Economics / Re: low price because of repeated large sells on: July 19, 2011, 12:19:42 AM
If you're mining and hoarding Bitcoins, you're speculating. It's exactly as if you made some money, then spent it by buying Bitcoins for speculation purposes.

ROTFL. If you're not buying Bitcoins, you're speculating. It's exactly as if you bought thousands of Bitcoins, then sold them for speculation purposes.

So, does that mean I'm also speculating in postage stamps, baseball cards, vintage vases, old wine, and classic cars.... by not buying them?  Great :-)
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