Alia just started a new thread in the Gambling subforum titled Proving that my gambling script works.I was once selling a gambling script (for which I received a lot of backlash) and was called a scammer. I am saying that it is profitable in the short run - people do not believe me.
Every day, for the next 10 days, starting from 12:10 AM UTC, I will use the script.
1 bit will be wagered on Bustabit and 3 bits will be wagered on Cryptobust. You can follow along daily, since the times have been set in stone, and will not change. You can even watch me play, if you wish to do so. I will screen record each run through and post it here.
Note: I am no longer selling the script, I just want to prove people wrong.
Anyway, the aim for each run will be a 20% ROI. I recommend 5-10% ROI with the script, but 20% will be my aim each time. As I stated previously, the script usually works 9/10 times or more. So, I will be running it a grand total of 20 times (once on each site daily).
If the script does not yield 20% ROI 18 times out of 20, I will admit that I "lied", and will leave the forum. I will also send a few bits to people who warned against me.
If the script yields 20% ROI 18 times out of 20 (or more)... well, then I guess my point has been proven.
We will see. You shall all see.
PS: If you have mathematically sound reasoning below, your post shall stay. If you have words of encouragement, the post will stay. If I lose more than 2 times and you want to roast me, the post will stay.
If you insult me for no reason, I will delete your post. If you spam irrelevant stuff here, I will delete your post. Trolls, please return if I lose (aka not happening)
One of the two sites (Cryptobust) also has an open scam accusation.That was the wrong cryptobust, I assume the correct one is cryptobust.io Edit: I have made a post about alia's chances of winning based on the terms she outlined in the above post. If the script does not yield 20% ROI 18 times out of 20, I will admit that I "lied", and will leave the forum. I will also send a few bits to people who warned against me.
If the script yields 20% ROI 18 times out of 20 (or more)... well, then I guess my point has been proven.
18 times of 20 is 90%. ROI - 20%. Expected value is 1.08. There's a chance of 92.5% to reach so easy target without using any scripts. So, you would not prove anything. At a 1% house edge, which both of these sites have, the simple chance of 20% return is 82.5%. The chance of alia getting 18, 19, or 20 of these 82.5% chances in a group of 20 is as follows: (For those unfamiliar, this uses the Binomial Distribution to find the chance of k successes out of 20 trials. Here we are interested in k=18, k=19, and k=20 so we sum those results). This comes out to 0.294233 (rounded to the 6th decimal place), or 29.4233%. So basically, the chance of alia's script working (according to the known laws of probability) are around 29.4%.I have my doubts about the legitimacy of this because screen recordings can be faked, livestreams could have been pre-recorded and such, but I won't get any more into that in this post. |
|
|
|
Although a little bit superficial, as someone that actually attends a university, I find it hilarious that alia would call it "college". I don't think I've ever heard anybody here refer to it as "college" instead of "school". Could easily be a regional difference or something but it immediately stood out to me, like someone trying to lie about something they're not familiar with. Maybe you could start with addressing the original concerns in the OP, which could be primarily done by: It is weird that someone would enter into a three year signature campaign. Who is to say that aTriz will have something to advertise sex months from now, let alone three years from now.
When physical items are being sold, it is customary around here to post a picture of said item with a piece of paper that has the date written on it, along with the username of the person selling the item. This will prove the seller at the very least has possession of said item.
Thanks for the information, I was not aware of this. I'm happy that at least one good thing came out of this thread.
I'm 100% down for that. I would prefer nullius, condoras, aTriz, RHavar, theymos, Lauda - any of them. Let's put an end to the speculation, let me prove it to you.
Thanks, but no. I do not do video calls for several reasons. I'm really not sure who is *trustworthy* enough and is willing to do this. I've crossed out the people who should not do this or do not want to (me). I agree, you probably would be unable to get a good handle of if they are telling the truth in two minutes. I sent a picture of me typing out the literal post I sent minutes after. If that is not good enough proof, then I will send a "timestamped" image once I am back from college. |
|
|
|
There's a company called Chainalysis that provide services like this. They market to companies mostly, people that want to manage risk. |
|
|
|
|
That time is the target to change the difficulty, it works based on the number of blocks mined instead of real time passing.
So for example, with Bitcoin blocks are expected every 10 minutes. If the network's hashrate magically doubled, we would be seeing new blocks on average every 5 minutes. This means that the next difficulty adjustment would come twice as fast. If then after this difficulty adjustment, all this new hashpower left the system, we would be seeing blocks on average every 20 minutes. This is because the difficulty readjusted to compensate for the new hashpower, but then it left the system. This new change would mean that the next difficulty adjustment would come twice as slow, meaning that the network would have 20 minute blocks for a much longer time, and the network throughput would struggle because of this.
|
|
|
|
In case anybody wants to see it, here is my post that was deleted from alia's "gambling method" thread. A reply of yours, quoted below, was deleted by the starter of a self-moderated topic. There are no rules of self-moderation, so this deletion cannot be appealed. Do not continue posting in this topic if the topic-starter has requested that you leave. You can create a new topic if you are unsatisfied with this one. If the topic-starter is scamming, post about it in Scam Accusations. Many of you have probably seen my gambling service thread, where I enjoyed great success gambling deposits for users. The purpose of that service was to (along with bring some profit for myself) test and tweak some gambling scripts and methods I've been working on. I'm going to be putting up two products for sale here. The Player Edge ScriptThis script is designed for crash sites, and has been backtested against around 2 years worth of data. This script is intended for use on provably fair sites (not sites where game outcomes are not calculated via cryptographic hashes), which ensures that all odds remain mathematically calculable. The script itself is not proprietary - the strategy itself is rather primitive. However, the specific numbers have been tweaked and tested hundreds of times by me personally, and I have come up with what I believe to be the perfect script. Obviously, results may vary, but in my experience, this is a golden script and you cannot go wrong with it. Take a look at my thread and look at all the profit that was made - that too, with a very shoddy version of Player Edge. Historically, this script is able to give me upwards of 10% on each round of playing, and is also able to indicate, in a way, the coming games' outcomes based on immediately preceding games. Note that although this script can work automatically, it is best to keep a take-profit point below 30% (it is what I usually do, and it has worked out absolutely superbly). To minimize saturation, I am only selling 15 copies of this script, and the price per script will be 0.99 BTC. To ensure safety of delivery, I highly recommend that the script should be sent via PGP encryption. If your mode of communication is compromised and the script is leaked due to an error on your side, you will be held accountable. Additional MethodThis is a personal method for a specific gambling site that I have been using for many years, and it has consistently delivered me profit. It is not a script (so it cannot be automated) nor is it as mathematically sound as Player Edge, but it is a method that I believe in, and something that works for me every day. Keep in mind that the daily expected profit is about 6 to 10%, and you will require a free VPN (or even better, a MAC spoofer) for this method to work most efficiently. I will be selling 45 copies of this method, and it will be priced at 0.44 BTC. My Skype is live:aliaarmelle - please feel free to add me if you have any further questions about the working or purchase of either Player Edge or the additional method. I'm happy to answer any and all queries in detail, but I will not compromise the exact details of any of the above products unless a purchase is made. Please do not try to negotiate, and please do not try to get me to sell extra copies, because everything mentioned here is set in stone. Have a great day! Reselling any part of the script/method in any way, shape or form, including accidental leakage, is a breach of my terms of service. Doing so will result in a scam report, and where applicable, a police report. Note that you will also be put on my personal hitlist, which is something you do not want. Gamble safely and responsibly,
and please only gamble if/when it is legal in your jurisdiction. I will not be held responsible if you are not allowed to gamble (eg. you live in a country where gambling is banned, you are underage, etc.) and you use these products, because the decision to use them will be your own. Any legal consequence that occurs due to use of these products is solely your responsibility.Was given a vouch copy of the method by op and played around with in with funds from the faucet.
In my limited experience if it, I profited and worked perfectly. Would recommend.
I made an extremely good ROI, and I’m sure that others who buy the method will experience similar results. Thanks, Alia!
I'm failing to see how a MAC spoofer could assist you in any way. MAC addresses are destroyed at each device along the way and never make it to any website. |
|
|
|
Do you have stats on average return on investment solely for dilution fees based on the time of investment?
Wouldn't it be zero? For every dilution fee that was paid by an investor, an equal amount was received by investors. So the sum is zero, and so the average is zero. At least it would have been if Daniel didn't just refund people out of his own pocket. It's.....been a long day. You're totally right. I should stop staring at so many numbers... |
|
|
|
Withdraws from the exchange are free, up to 10 per calendar month. Each exchange after the 10th during that month is also charged a 0.002 BTC fee, but your free quota resets at the beginning of the next month. See here: https://gemini.com/transfer-fee-schedule/ |
|
|
|
If you were going to build a new cryptocurrency exchange, how would you do it? Would you use existing open source software such as Peatio, would you create a custom made platform, or would you try to use one of the existing decentralized exchange platforms? Consider from a business perspective as well as a developer's perspective...  Short answers for the questions above: I would not ever use existing source codes. Open source is tempting easy way to build something fast. However I always consider simple rule of thumb "If something is literally money-printing press, why it is free?" Even though I might not know what is wrong with the source, I don't want to waste time and money to find out. It can be anything from inability to handle loads to poor algorithmic or backdoors injected into it. I simply don't want to find out. I would not try doing decentralized exchange. I don't see how it is possible to create both scaleable and fast decentralized trading platform. I have been reading lots of suggestions and projects but they all are deeply flawed and crippled compared to professionaly made exchanges. What would be my obvious focus? Customer support. I see even best players on the field mishandle or neglect customer support and public relations. I don't hold most of the exchanges famous for lack of support (except a few) that accountable for it. A lot of them have just been hit with a massive influx of users that they weren't expecting. Then there's Coinbase. |
|
|
|
-snip- This is false. The most important trait of RNGs is that the next result cannot be predicted, even knowing the previous result. You are claiming to have beaten RNGs, and if you had you would be using this exploit to win money from sites yourself, not sell a "method" to other people. Incorrect, although each individual value is calculated through random variance, patterns between numbers can still be identified. Also, an RNG is very different from a simple (0.99/odds) calculator, where the expected odds of each number has a percentage that has been set. For example, we know that the odds of hitting two 100+x's in a row are 0.00009801. I'm selling the method mainly for altruistic purposes (I have already made quite a bit of profit for myself as well as investors; sharing the method not only helps others, but allows me to make some additional money without worrying about variance). Just because you can find a pattern in the numbers that have already been generated does not mean that pattern extends to the proceeding numbers. You're describing extrapolation and it's not at all helpful for this. |
|
|
|
able to indicate, in a way, the coming games' outcomes based on immediately preceding games. 1. Are you saying your script can predict the future outcomes to a certain level? 2. Would this also work on the new Bab v2? (since you mention "crash games") 3. Also, just for the record, are you claiming that players have a positive expected return based on these methods? Or do you agree they are just gambling and likely to lose money? Keep in mind that the daily expected profit is about 6 to 10% 4. So if you start with 1 BTC. You will have 1*1.06^365 = 1,724,411,147 BTC after 1 year. And that is the worst-case scenario, 10% is even a lot more. Why sell if you can make almost 2 billion BTC from only a single BTC in 1 year? Excellent questions. It is important to note that no matter what, gambling will always be EV- for players and EV+ for the casino owners. Given an infinite amount of time, no script or player can beat the house edge. However, this script is not intended for long-run use. Use it like I do - get in and get out. This way, the script is able to play in a scenario of random chance, and is not subject to the long-run house edge advantage (this is why I named it Player Edge; because it adds more fairness to the game). Keep in mind that although running this script for 30 mins can double your money, running it for 24 hours will almost certainly cause you to lose it. Included with the script will be my usage guide (which allows me to make consistent profits). This is why I recommend you to set a TP of 10-30%, as that is where usage is optimal. Since games are based on variance, they are also subject to a degree of mathematical probability. You can say quite safely that there will not be two games with a 1000x multiplier adjacent to each other within your lifetime. You can also say that the odds of getting two games above 1.01x adjacently are quite high, and so on. Based on preceding games, the script can indicate (to a mathematical extent) what kind of games are about to come consequently. It is naturally not foolproof; but it can purely indicate. This is false. The most important trait of RNGs is that the next result cannot be predicted, even knowing the previous result. You are claiming to have beaten RNGs, and if you had you would be using this exploit to win money from sites yourself, not sell a "method" to other people. |
|
|
|
|
If I were to attempt to write a similar program in Rust, are there documents anywhere that outline how I could generate keypairs efficiently like this?
|
|
|
|
Over the years Bitcoin has lost a great deal of privacy and anonimity. I would dare to say that it isn't almost anonimous at all. Therefore the need for bulletproof transactions has emerged. But at the moment I'm not sure how efficient this will function if it will at all. And if you want to trade and use exchanges you can't stay anonimous because exchanges are legaly obliged to collect users data in order to keep legitimate business.
But for some deal of anonimity you can always try to use Bitcoin mixers.
Bitcoin has never been anonymous, only pseudo-anonymous. Addresses are completely traceable identifiers. You could make an argument that Bitcoin may have gained privacy due to changes in wallets (generating a new address for every receipt of coins instead of re-using them). Excluding exchanges, which aren't directly a part of Bitcoin, I think the privacy situation may have gotten slightly better. However, with the rise of Bitcoin there's been the rise of chain analytics groups trying to trace coins. So I think it's important that privacy improvements to Bitcoin on a protocol level are still being considered. |
|
|
|
The dilution fee has been lowered from 10 % to 1 %. Investors that have paid more in dilution fees than they have gained have been refunded the difference in fee rate.
That's good news. Do you have stats on average return on investment solely for dilution fees based on the time of investment? |
|
|
|
Sence that you mention investments,can we have a date or a time schedule for LTC investments? Maybe you already say something about this in a previous post but i wasn't follow for some days now... We have also lowered the BTC withdrawal fee by 50%, I hope the network fees will stay low.
That's great news indeed. If BTC though rise up fast,again,then the fees will be up again...  Until then,let's enjoy this reduce!  Ethan mentioned in chat that LTC investments won't come until after ETH is implemented. |
|
|
|
Anyone that has an old wallet.dat from early Bitcoin-qt days has tested it by the way? Any problems?
Do legacy and segwit addresses show up fine the GUI? got some screenshots to see how it looks like? I can't install it currently, im out and will not be back home for a while.
The old wallet loaded OK but it is empty so I couldn't test beyond that. To use Segwit you need a new wallet anyway so I renamed that and it made a new Segwit one automatically. Getting a new receiving address give a Segwit one start '3'. I'm still trying to work out how to get a bech32 address. Edit: Official release thread has appeared https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3024763.0Well I remember reading achow101 saying that if you had an old bitcoin-qt wallet.dat and opened it with 0.16 it will automatically convert it to the new format and you don't need to do anything annoying like creating an empty one and sending all of your coins over the new wallet.dat which is hell. And also I got some coins on a bech32 electrum address, I've read I can't export it because it will not work properly... when this will be fixed? I guess I will leave them on electrum's wallet for the time being. Im also still paranoid about the new format. I assume the seed is impossible to see and therefore safer than electrum's hd format right? What do you mean "impossible to see"? The seed still has to be stored in the encrypted wallet.dat |
|
|
|
We have also lowered the BTC withdrawal fee by 50%, I hope the network fees will stay low. I am thinking about introducing dynamic fees that would reflect the current mempool status.
Cheers,
Ethan
Dynamic fees would be fantastic. Maybe you could talk to RHavar about that, I know he's done some amazing things with busta's withdraw system. But in the meantime, lowering fees is still good |
|
|
|
|
I've never used a Debian-based system before and I'm a little lost. Nothing seems to recognize the device, neither the Chrome app nor Electrum.
|
|
|
|
Bonjour, Si vous avez supprimé votre clé privée, il n'y a aucun moyen de la récupérer sauf si vous avez effectué une sauvegarde. Merci d'utiliser le forum français la prochaine fois, ce forum est uniquement en anglais. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=13.0 |
|
|
|
If you watch the network hashrate you can clearly see large portions coming online and offline.
Like Danny said, there is no way to watch the actual hashrate of the network. You can only observe how many blocks they have mined, and estimate their hashrate from that information. |
|
|
|
I'm trying more to find a way to industrialize it and minimize user interaction.
Also, i'm trying to find out what can be a the safest way to interact between the 2 devices.
For information, i'm planning to use AES 256 to encrypt the private keys on the cold device part.
- exporting unsigned transactions through qr-code seems complicated when it comes to +2K characters. I thought about cuting the transaction into 5 smaller qr-code with different colors and concatenate the transaction on the other device. Seems a bit complicated, right ?
- if i plan to have a physical connection between the devices, then, what about a usb cable that has a two-way read/write function on a 'temp' storage ? in clear: ability to deposit/read files and detect the presence of new files. Can it be safe ?
thanks
Sounds like you're almost talking about hardware wallets. Hardware wallets are devices which hold the private keys on them. You connect them to online computers, which build unsigned transactions and send them to the hardware wallet to sign. The transactions are then signed by the hardware wallet when the user presses a button confirming the transaction, the details of which are usually displayed on a screen. This way the private keys never touch the online device |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
