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it's why I dont like posting the short term charts.
We have been denied of a clear valid abc reaction. Its a mess. considering the longer term view that we are heading towards lower 100s, we are at risk that we continue down from this point, although further sideways and highs to around 1550 are still fair game considering the reaction is not technically complete. A break through 1400 is obviously very bearish.
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hello chessnut, is your forecast still valid?
Seems the already small bullish wave is losing momentum.
Its on the edge but not yet invalidated. ok seems toast now |
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hello chessnut, is your forecast still valid?
Seems the already small bullish wave is losing momentum.
Its on the edge but not yet invalidated. |
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Hi Chessnut how YOu predict timeframe? How long it will take to reach target in Your opinion?
Should be around about 8 hrs  ..... lol yeah should be more than 8hrs, could be up to double that. time is hard to say. |
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Can we set limit orders in this thread LOL
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BUY @ 232.47
set the alarms!
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Zero, $100, current price is all the same to me. Not worth selling at these prices, i'll be back to trade when we in the thousands. Seriously though we could just as easy go sideways for 6 months from here, can 1 whale really push a market down, only if the market wants to go down will the whale do that.
Very sensible  this is good decisive trading. ^^ (but its not EW analysis  ) |
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Serious question, but what price point would you consider your current wave count invalid and reassess it?
I think a move to mid $100's is possibly (imho unlikely) but wouldn't that be a terrifying capitulation point for all those - like me - that think the bear market may finally be over!?
I think I mentioned that 320-340 was invalidation territory. Needless to say, Im not worried about that right now. It seems likely to me that we have been given the evidence we need that the bear trend is set to rapidly continue. This is the evil work of Benjamin the whale he tweeted last night at 1670, the very top "the fun has just begun" - I have warned that my count was aligned with his plans to "gox" the market not long ago. I think it is the plan of the elite that there is a raid across exchanges, driving the price to a final and brief low of $100, possibly less. Yes, a move to $100 would surely be intimidating to the most stubborn believers, although I firmly believe this is where the limits of the bear market will be reached. Black Arrow, I believe that bitcoin will undergo mass adoption and grow greatly, and I believe in fundamental factors as described will come into play eventually, but just weeks ago the price dropped 50% within days to $150. Right now the price is weak. What is your evidence that the situation has changed? bitcoin is evidently vulnerable, and so long as the situation doesn't change in the next month, I believe that EW theory is a great guide for us to pick the bottom with. Please though, this is not a FA thread. lets keep it clean. |
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How low you think we'll go? Do you think we'll go sub $220 and proceed to head down to 100? Or do you think we go something like 267-242-280 and then down?
too early to tell m8. if this is the beginning of the next grand wave down, then I think we may go as low as $150-$70. It might take days before we can consider if this is a continuation or consolidation. |
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Can you please post a chart with your counts if you don't mind? Also, almost 20% in 2 days.. this alone is a very bearish signal.
I do not wish to post 1-5m charts here any more, just hourly and above. Look at previous charts I have posted, they are still relevant. I think here is approximately the top, I am very confident we will be capped by 1680. Any 1m-5m charts calling the top are really not tradable unless you can react to changes like I can, in which case you would have a better idea yourself anyway. I love the theory, it works great, but I cant help feeling lucky every time this happens. |
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We didn't. 1680 CNY seems to be very close to be broken from here. What's your take now?
bearish. this is just the beginning of a multi day correction. |
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From a non EW perspective there is little chance we will see sub $100. I think this is where EW analysis falls down honestly, as if looking at arbitrary (albeit possible) market patterns will explain what the largest and most influential traders are doing in this market, because it does not.
The charts reflect the forces acting upon them. There may be large players accumulating bitcoin, but large money wise investors still have trust issues depositing large sums of money into exchanges, and their demand will not be expressed on the main exchanges. By your logic, $150 should never have happened. Would you really be surprised by a brief spike down to $100? Its not a matter of certainty, but all factors remaining the same, I expect it in principle. |
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Can you please post a chart with your counts if you don't mind? Also, almost 20% in 2 days.. this alone is a very bearish signal.
I do not wish to post 1-5m charts here any more, just hourly and above. Look at previous charts I have posted, they are still relevant. I think here is approximately the top, I am very confident we will be capped by 1680. Any 1m-5m charts calling the top are really not tradable unless you can react to changes like I can, in which case you would have a better idea yourself anyway. |
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You guys think we'll make a short term top around $260?
I was thinking that many people seem to be eager to pick up at sub 200 so if we make new lows, I feel like it should be shortlived and it'll be obvious that it is a bottom. But bottoms are rarely easy to tell which is why I think that we may not see new lows.
A short term top may already be in place but a move towards 260 is not unlikely. After some consolidation between here and 1400 yuan we might take another leg up higher towards 1800, but it is equally likely at this point that we will begin the last greater leg towards new lows to conclude the bear market around $100. That was pretty close at $258. In your last count, you calculated the distance of breakout from its preceding triangle. Does it land between $255-260? Don't you think once we enter sub 220s again from here, it would be very likely to head downwards? Yes, I think if we pass 220 we will be on our way to new yearly lows. we could consolidate above that possibly before another leg up also, but I prefer the bearish take. It seems like this impulse in over, we have clearly had a fifth wave erupt from a iv wave triangle on the smaller time frames which concludes two degrees of impulse. we will likely head down to 240 from here. |
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You guys think we'll make a short term top around $260?
I was thinking that many people seem to be eager to pick up at sub 200 so if we make new lows, I feel like it should be shortlived and it'll be obvious that it is a bottom. But bottoms are rarely easy to tell which is why I think that we may not see new lows.
A short term top may already be in place but a move towards 260 is not unlikely. After some consolidation between here and 1400 yuan we might take another leg up higher towards 1800, but it is equally likely at this point that we will begin the last greater leg towards new lows to conclude the bear market around $100. |
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