Invalid yet?
Edit:
Now for sure?
My count? no, not invalid, might start looking ugly at 1632 but i like what i see here |
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There is one other possibility to explain why wave C started with an abc, that is with an ending diagonal, 5 waves of 3. As the triangle has been eliminated this is now the most probable count. As a flat ABC, 3-3-5, is not a terminal move as a triangle tends to be, we can count the impulse as I-II rather than A-B, suggesting that we could see new yearly lows follow a breakdown from this point. Ending diagonals characteristically break through the lower trend line sharply, watch out for this.  The count identified is unfolding nicely. We have seen a clear impulse down forming wave I or A, a clear abc 3-3-5 reaction forming wave ii or b, well defined risk levels and a helpful set of guidelines to accompany the count. An impulse is always followed by a wave iii or C. Both will make new lows below 1400, but a wave iii could take us once again below 1000 yuan, so this could be a critical point. When an ending diagonal terminates it swiftly and fully retraces the entire move. A break below the lower trend line will probably be followed by fresh lows below 1450 within 48 hours of the breakdown. The impulse that will follow cannot pass the newly defined top after a breakdown of the ending diagonal, this is a good S/L level.  |
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Could become a spectacular weekend dump, right?
mhm, looks like its shaping up to tip about midnight sunday GMT Indicators show incoming decline, which could be epic. But how about new people entering Bitcoin via Coinbase and Circle? How does that affect supply and demand?
Its an EW thread, not FA. EW and FA are not exclusive so you cant count the fundamentals twice so to speak. One or the other, but never both. |
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There is one other possibility to explain why wave C started with an abc, that is with an ending diagonal, 5 waves of 3. As the triangle has been eliminated this is now the most probable count. As a flat ABC, 3-3-5, is not a terminal move as a triangle tends to be, we can count the impulse as I-II rather than A-B, suggesting that we could see new yearly lows follow a breakdown from this point. Ending diagonals characteristically break through the lower trend line sharply, watch out for this. |
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Where did you get the 20x leverage?
Okcoin |
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Hey chessnut, I have a few questions, if you don't mind answering. Thanks in advance.
1. How often, from your experience, does bitcoin's movements follow EW? I mean, that bitcoin's movements end up making sense in an EW perspective, and is not extremely surprising? I don't need a really accurate statistic, but just a general feel.
2. Taking a very very long term perspective, what are your thoughts on bitcoin (not bitcoin trading)? Do you think it will "go to the moon", or just end up being a good trading tool for a while and fade away?
1.) Bitcoin moves frequently in terms of EW, especially after large volatile, long pent up swings. It does not always in terms of my EW  , and sometimes it is a bit batshit crazy, but not often at all imho. Dont disregard the value of adapting and retrospective analysis, the compiling of evidence is like playing russian roulette. Some say you can count everything, but I think nah, somethings are too ambiguos or just outside of the principle in character entirely and I think those times the signal is to walk away. Watch this video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVkdfJ9PkRQ In many ways this is how the market is constantly changing in character, although it is always moving towards or from harmonic unison. 2.) I am fundamentally bullish on bitcoin, but I do not let that affect my counting (at least not any more). I am excited because I see that it may go 'to the moon' as it has before, but I also see that it may take a great deal of time longer than one might hope, and that we may still go a great deal lower than one might hope. Been lurking in this thread a while. Chessnut your pretty amazing!
I have enjoyed my finest month of trading ever, up about 1200% after managing to string about 5 trades together on 20x leverage (Im a heavy swinger). But just you wait, you'll see me make a good few bum calls inevitably |
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do you see a scenario where we break out upwards for a short/med term period? how would that fit into a count if at all?
as per lebings chart, there is also a large descending triangle with similar contact points which traditional TA says "normally" breaks out up.
this idea would fit with the depleting volume on this recent med term downtrend move, but EW doesn't care about volume right?
That's not a descending triangle, or what we would call an ending diagonal in EW. It is invalid for more than one reason, but as they tend to break out sharply and quickly I can assure you that by now the better explanation is still the original impulse count which is plausible and valid. Look at the chinese chats, its inconsistent with an ED. We could still break up, but eyes on the prize, we are looking at the moment for this potential triangle to unfold in good form. Ive never used volume in EW but we recognise the character of volume in impulses. |
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The failure of wave C to unfold as a clear impulse (at the time being) gives us a strong clue that a triangle is unfolding here as triangles unfold in five wave of 3 and are corrective moves.A triangle here changes the medium term count quite interestingly, as the decline towards 220 would become a terminal move, perhaps wave B of a larger flat, or something else, we shall see.  |
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Yeah, that's not a rule, but I can hardly remember any second waves retracing less than 50% so I'd expect this one to get at least a bit closer there.
As of late, it has begun looking like a triangle wave B. imo. see what Im seeing? I think we will know in a day or two. The zig zag would have a fittingly shallow reaction. |
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Shouldn't ii (we're currently in) retrace at least 50% of previous i, which happens to be at 269.83 (1663 on Huobi), and which is only possible if subwave b is finished?
Ive never heard of a rule that states that wave i must retrace at least 50%, although I know that it often happens and is probably a guideline. I heard another EW analyst say that time wise, as a guideline, wave ii takes 50% of the time of wave i to complete also. We have had a 38% correction and with the form of this flat so far I think its a pretty good count. |
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There's very little entropy in the phrase "There is no new thing under the sun" (In this context, I'd guess much less than 20 bits). It's easily one of the billion phrases most likely to be selected for this use so it's not really surprising to see the funds instantly vanish. Compare this with another eight-word phrase: "rebel twenty hotel solve zone arena dad east". These words were selected randomly and uniformly from a list of 2048 words using a secure RNG (you could use coins, dice, cards instead or in conjunction). Unlike "There is no new thing under the sun", I can be confident that this precise string of words did not exist anywhere until this moment. Before I revealed this precise passphrase it had, provably, 88 bits of entropy (so I'd guess it to have been about 300 billion billion times stronger). Even then, I would recommend using something stronger still for a brainwallet. While I occasionally use brainwallets with as little as 96 bits of entropy, I recommend a minimum of 128 bits to anyone that's not confident in doing the calculations themselves. For reference: - Casascius coin addresses have 128 bits of entropy and they're holding out well.
- A typical address as generated by Bitcoin Core contains 160 bits of entropy (about 4 billion times stronger than 128 bits).
Diceware, mentioned in tspacepilot's link, gives you about 12.92 bits of entropy per word so you'll want 10 words as a minimum and 13 words for maximum security. Final note: Now that I've posted "rebel twenty hotel solve zone arena dad east" online, it would make a poor brainwallet passphrase. I wouldn't care to guess at its strength but it's certainly far, far less than 88 bits. Thanks for this! helps a lot  |
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I know this is ageism but it must be asked. Chessnut is 22? Why should his opinion about anything matter, especially investments?
My opinion doesnt matter. Im just playing a fun game on the market. Im not an investor. Im just a trader and Ive been trading forex bitcoin and stocks for about 4 years. Why do I like to share my opinion on this forum? Articulating my ideas on a forum is a good way to keep a log and helps keep me objective. I have an intuition for trading and especially chess, I recently discovered that I am an INTJ by Myer Briggs personality type, be that as it may. I love to recommend this book to read. " Reminiscences of a stock operator " by Edwin Lefevre. Apart from an authentic and epic wall street story you might see things from my perspective. For what its worth Im up 34% on Dnaleors speculation game  do you know how much that is on 20x leverage? |
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There is a fair chance that this is unfolding. This could produce the form for an excellent short opportunity if it happens. waves iii iv and v that will possibly conclude the bear market may unfold clearly before our eyes toward $100-$150  But in the case of an ending diagonal wave c, there is also the chance that we head on straight to 1300-1200 in a third wave extension and who knows where it will stop. So, I would encourage nobody to take longs despite a bit of upside potential. The correction began with an abc wave A, this means it is a flat correction, 3-3-5. we ave seen a characteristically deep correction of wave A. We could rally to around $260 from here before aggressive downside, or we could go lower before a wave C correction to around $250 and then fall like a sack of bricks. There is a chance that we fall straight towards yearly lows from here but its very chancy indeed.  |
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Thanks, interesting read. amazing how one word is the difference between 6 months and 3000 years. |
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Hey guys, I thought I'd start experimenting with brain wallets to store some of my bitcoin in, so I went to the only place I know to do that. https://www.bitaddress.org/bitaddress.org-v2.9.8-SHA256-2c5d16dbcde600147162172090d940fd9646981b7d751d9bddfc5ef383f89308.html?culture=enI tried a long quote of shakespeare, but the address came out invalid according to my smart phone wallet so I tried a shorter phrase - "There is no new thing under the sun" I sent 0.001 here 14BwAbCRHJ7xbvG7GQFuxPgErJw6zXQdxQ and instantly it was relayed to this address which had 10BTC in it 1LdUHTEVxWJhrhKfy4H3VuYDnTHQVjsdBn   This is really scary that the funds were relayed instantly, I know its not the strongest phrase but there could only be two things going on here, somebody has generated a large database of popular brain wallets, or bitaddress.org is crooked. has anybody else had this experience? Can you make a brain wallet simple enough to be memorable and secure? Thanks for your thoughts! |
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Update incoming  Have a coffee while you do that (check your wallet |
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Chessnut, I'm i right on this?
4 is above 1. So I think it is wrong. sorry. i realized that too. edited now. see the form, make the count. not vice versa! learn what an impulse looks like. look at the last chart I posted, that is a good example. its much easier to see exactly what is not an impulse however. |
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