I remember back in late 2014 and early 2015 I was looking for Bitcoin ASICs. There was an individual that was selling some Antminer S3. From what I recall they were like $300-$500 (can't exactly remember).

I contacted the guy and wanted to buy them for like $100 and he said no. Then I remember there was a day, maybe first week of January 2015 when BTC had a huge crash. Like I think it was the lowest low ever since. I decided to contact him again and this time I jokingly offered $50 each and to my surprise the guy said "yes" and wanted to meet immediately. I assumed he wouldn't show up however I decided to meet him somewhere public anyways. To my surprise he showed up, took my $50 per S3 and we parted ways. Shortly after that day the profitaiblity of BTC mining went up and BTC was never that low again. Well I think there was a day in middle of 2015 when it broke $200 on Bitfinex to like $150 but it quickly corrected and went higher.

Feel bad for that guy because most likely he never ROI'd on those S3's. No idea if he was hodling the BTCs mined or just market selling everyday for fiat.

I have a feeling that in the next few weeks it will be easier and easier to get GPUs. The mining profitability has been reduced significantly and many people already assume we are in the bear market, so most likely people won't be buying any more GPUs.

Its hard to say that will happen. We might get a rally into the $50K and then trade sideways for the next year or so. OR we might go down further into the $20K area if all his energy FUD keeps being announced and Elon and Musk keep posting negative views on BTC and crypto in general.

I would say its 50/50 we topped. Hope you guys took some partial profits along the way.

Alot of people got their accounts liquidated. And its sad to hear of a few that took their lives. Its like the story of that kid last year that committed suicude due to Robinhoods bad option info. He entered some options strangle trade. Where he was long and short at the same time but for some reason it showed that he was negative half a million dollars. And instead of contacting support he got depressed and took his life and his parents are suing Robinhood right now.

Basically it was nothing but a visual error with the way how buggy the software is, he never owed that much money. He might of been in profit even. However I guess he didn't have experience and knew exactly how it worked and assumed he lost all that money. Even if he lost all that money, he could of just declared bankrupcy which would of been better than taking his life.

Posts like this are the reason why you need to wait until bitcoin makes a move before you either go long or short. There are many traders right now which lost tons of money. And they redepositted more money into their exchange account and are reverenge trading.

Basically they want to make it all back, so they are using leverage and most likely whether they go long or short they will get liquidated. Most likely if they go short, we will retest the $42K area at least and stop them out. Then they will trap bulls and most likely retest the $30K low and take out even more traders. It could trade like this for weeks. And people will get liquidated because they are caught in the chop. Best to wait and see which way it goes and then make a move.

There was like $8B or so in liquidations which was about 750,000 different liquidations. So assuming most people only had 1 position, that is almost a million investors which got liquidated. Some maybe didn't have enough margin in their account at the time to refill and for others they probably ended up losing everything.

Then there are those that bought BTC back at $33K earlier when it was rallying and most likely they never took profit because they were expecting at least $100K bitcoin and they set their stop loss at break-even. Or they got scared when they saw $30K and basically got out at break-even because they don't want a repeat of 2017 where it goes from $20K all the way to $3K.

Yes its great that he is buying more and more however he should of bought all these bitcoins back in the $10-$25K area. Right now his average is like $25K. And the issue is that if bitcoin keeps going lower and lower, the share price of his stock will go down. The share holders will not like that.

If they can, and especially the people that lend him the money, they might get scared with all this "bitcoin not friendly to environment" and might get him to sell for break-even or a small loss rather than going down with the ship and being forced to liquidate BTC which is never a good thing.

The issue with Saylor is that he is way too overexposed to BTC. His problem was buying more and more, and borrowing money to buy more and more. He had a great entry at $11K at first however he kept adding more and more as the price went higher and higher. What is worse he borrowed debt to buy more BTC. And every week or so he was tweeting that he bought 200 BTC here and there.

A few days back he tweeted that he bought using the Cash app. So most likely he is maxing out his credit card buying bitcoin. He seems addicted. And its great and all. However if bitcoin keeps dipping into his average, he might get in trouble and might get pressure to sell some of his holding. He has like 100K BTC which won't be easy to unload, especially in a neutral or bear market. Hence you need to becareful.

Right now is neither the time to buy or sell. Need to see what will happen in the next few days. There is a good chance we might break $30K and head to the $20-25K area, if we go there then that is the place to buy, not here. If you want to buy here then buy some but not all. I am pretty sure the market is thin on capial because everybody bought in the $50K area and everyone is out of money.

If you want to buy, then wait for confirmation first, wait until $42K breaks and heads to like $45K and buy on some pullback then. This way there is a good chance that $30K was indeed the low and you will pay a little higher but at least you won't be sitting at a loss. Currently we don't know where the market will take us.

Are you talking about the tokens on the ethereum network like USDC or USDT or other ERC 20 Tokens or are you talking about other POW coins like Litecoin and Dogecoin and Monero?

Because when ETH goes POS you won't be able to mine ETH at all, so the fees from people doing ERC20 transactions will go to the POS. And you can't mine ERC20 coins, not possible.

But you can still mine other coins like Litecoin or Dogecoin or Monero and you can even mine ETC which uses the same algo (pretty much) as ETH.

If it recovers quick like in March 2020, then its possible to go to a new ATH however this drop was over 50% from ATH, it was huge. And many people got liquidated and most likely left the market. Generally everybody was waiting for a dip, so there should of been enough buyers to prevent it from dropping below $50K let alone $40K all the way to $30K.

If we chop around for the next few weeks instead of gaining a large percentage everyday. Then I think its safe to assume that $65K was the top. Things were getting out of control especially with Doge going to $1 almost and all those people making crazy gains of those doge coin copy cats that Vitalik ended up donating to Covid19 relief fund. Way too many people were making way too much money,.

There are a few reasons why it crashed all the way to $30K.

First one is that there was lots of people who first invested in bitcoin at $32-36K area. Look at the daily chart, this is the area where we spent alot of time in. If you look at volume profile there is lots of volume in this area. Most likely these people never took profit at $65K and instead they just put their invested to sell at break-even and hence why it had a huge candle in that area.

Second reason is most likely everyone selling prior because they assumed Tesla must of sold because it was hard to describe what Elon meant in certain tweets. Especially when he said "indeed" to someone saying that "Tesla probably sold BTC" and it caused all this panic.

So I guess this thread is concluded pretty much. What I predicted pretty much happened.

For most of April and May the funding rate was mostly flat, then when we started to head towards $40K, the May and June futures started to trade with no premium. Then as we broke $40K, they started to trade at a discount.

Then what happened is exactly what I predicted. Everybody that did cash and carry would close the trade. They closed their short and had to dump their BTC spot holdings which led to this massive crash. Hence the huge crash and huge OI decline by 30%.

So there is a good chance that $65K might of been the top for this cycle. Hard to say, maybe 50% sure.

How much juice do you really think there is left for Doge? Yes its possible for $1 however keep in mind that for Doge to stay at $1 it will need $500,000,000 worth of buys to offset the new mined coins per month, do you think its sustainable. I don't think so.

Even if it does go to $2-3, it will be temporarily and will come back down. The issue will be if there is a bear market there will be massive selling and people will all run for the hills and Doge might see a 95% loss within a year or so which is what happened with most alt coins in 2018.

Alot of people don't actually like that Justin guy and its the reason why the coin suffers. If you follow him on twitter you can see why. However he does do some good to the overall crypto community. Like that time he had dinner with Buffet and it was for crypto promotion. And during the GME and AMC pump he got tons of Robinhood people to join the crypto community.

The coin has alot of utility due to the Tether token because of its cheap fees however. As ETH and BTC fees are going higher and higher, people will probably start using Tron more and more if they want to move Tether around. However not every exchange has Tether on the Tron network and this is an issue. Mostly its on Ethereum and Bitcoin.

I don't think it will go to $5K. However keep in mind that is possible that we might head to $20K some day. With that Elon tweet alone we lost like 25%, basically we were at almost 60K and almost touched 40K. So with enough panic don't be surprised for the selling to accelerate.

If you look at volume profile, it shows where the most volume occured. There was tons of volume at $33K and $19K and $11K. So those people are sitting on huge profits. Unless they took profits already, they will most likely "go for breakeven" if price goes back to their entry. So either of those can be the low. Most likely $33K might be the lowest.

Unless we go below $35K I think we are still in a bull market however any terrority where we lose 40-50% from ATH, then I would look and maybe take profits on a bounce if that happens. So if we go down to like $32K and top is $64K, the 50% bounce would be like $48K where would be a good place to take some partial profits in case the bear market is actually starting.

I think this is the flush we needed. Way too many people made money. Look at all those who became millionaires with their Doge investments or NFT or DeFI or even those free airdrops. This obviously wasn't going to go on forever. So hopefully $40K holds and in a few months we will revisit ATH.

Providing another update!

So the purpose of this thread was to prove my theory. Will the futures predict a market top?

So right now the May and June Bitcoin futures are trading at a discount. A few months prior the June futures was trading at 10-15%. Which means tons of people did a cash and carry trade. They bought spot BTC and now they are closing their cash and carry trade. So they are dumping BTC while they are covering their future short and profiting the 10-15% premium.

So I am going to be watching the monthly futures closely and what we will see is the open interest go down. And this will lead to selling pressure. So if price is trading sideways or upwards AND open interest is heading downwards, it means there is massive sell pressure from cash and carry trades. So we might easily head into the $35K's area before heading back up to ATH.

I think you can say the bear market started if it goes to the $30k's area and doesn't bounce back up towards the high $40ks. Right now its only -35% pullback from ATH and most of this is due to the Elon musk tweets he is giving out projecting a bad image towards bitcoins environmental impact which we already knew about.

So in a few days I think this will all pass. Hopefully he stops tweeting all together and even stops with his Doge promotions. Because many bitcoin and eth people keep tweeting to him that Doge is a shitcoin and he is replying back saying bad things about bitcoin and other POW coins.

We will see if the $42K area holds which is strong support on the weekly.

Can he even legally say that he sold it? I mean crypto is still mostly unregulated however the issue is with TSLA stock. If he says that they sold it, people will know that it was at a profit of at least 50% and it will affect the value of the stock, this can be considered insider trading.

When he said 'indeed' I don't think he meant that they sold the entire position. I just think that the Bitcoin people were distrespectful why he choose doge. They called it a shitcoin and maybe hurt he ego and this is why he is saying bad things about BTC.

Either way, pretty crazy how those few tweets caused a huge BTC crash pretty much, even starting with the TSLA doesn't accept BTC for cars anymore.

I am pretty sure he was ordered by his board or by IRS to stop accepting BTC. Its one thing if you accept BTC for something small like $100 but for a $100,000 car its a different story. I think they evaulated how it might lead to money laundering and accounting issues with IRS they decided it would be too much of a headache and decided to not accept it.

Drug dealers could buy tesla's, and then sell those tesla's as a money laundering scheme or something similar. If Tesla sold other items such as cell phone or clothes which were cheaper then maybe they would still be accepted however with how expensive these cars are they probably would run into too many issues.