I browse crypto Twitter from time to time and the way the sentiment shifts is crazy. Today everybody is bullish. Yesterday everybody was bearish, before that it was vice versa and so on.

We are basically trading the range here from $30-41k or so. We can stay in this range until late Aug and people are going to get chopped to bits trying to long or short this. Hence best to wait for confirmation on the upside or downside first.

I remember back in 2014 when the mempool was near empty, you never had to check what fee to use. The default fee everybody used back then was 10000 sats. Which at $200 a coin was like 2 pennies. I would basically do daily withdraws from my exchange, sometimes for small amounts less than $100.

Would send it back and forth pretty much, never had to worry about fees. Now 7 years later I rarely do any Bitcoin transactions. If I want to move across exchanges I use alts like LTC. Before I used to use ETH but those fees are also high from time to time.

And I am pretty sure many other people do the same, hence the reduced transaction volumes goes down. $20 a fee might be cheap sometimes but when you think of it, look how much stuff you can buy yourself for $20. And the fees add up. It’s not normal paying $200 a month just to do a few crypto transactions.

If you are planning on having the GPU inside an enclosed case and you want it to be quiet (not silent) then you can get away with 1 GPU. If you want more than 2 then forget about it. Even with high flow silent fans one of the GPUs will overheat (the 2nd GPU) and you will need to increase your airflow or open up the case to get proper ventilation.

You can’t do this in an office. You will have an important meeting and people are going to be wondering why is his PC so damn loud. It’s not professional. ASICS you can forget about. Those are as loud as a vacuum cleaner pretty much.

Right now we have basically a head and shoulders on the daily/weekly with the neckline being ~$29-$30K and shoulders being $42K with $64K as the head. Currently many traders are going to be trading this area of interest.

Most likely if we break $29K strong and don't close as a wick, then most likely we will see $25K perhaps even $20K later on. If we break the $42K with strength then we can easily go to $50K and most likely there will be strong resistance at $48K and $56K because that is where most the volume was traded and many people are holding the bag at those levels. Most likely out of fear they will want break-even there.

Watching videos that the Chinese mining farms are posting on their Twitter showing them powering off their ASICS. It actually reminds me of how I once had to also shut off my ASICS. It was also sad. Powering off the power bar and saying goodbye to the very last hash.

Wonder what will happen with this huge shutdown. Obviously difficult will adjust but wonder how long until these fairly profitable ASICS find another country to mine in.

These days cashing in large amounts especially if you want to be anonymous and untraceable is very difficult. Back in the day you could meet someone on localbitcoins and just trade BTC for cash. Now localbitcoins has gone full KYC. Another method was you could go to a bitcoin ATM and sell it there. Sure the fees were high however it was quick and anonymous. These days most bitcoin ATMs in my area require KYC also.

So if you made serious cash with bitcoin. Just use a real exchange, withdraw it to your bank account and just pay your taxes. The headache is not worth it. Even if you could go to a bitcoin ATM everyday and withdraw like $2K a day, it would take you forever to withdraw a decent amount like $100K. And where would you keep in that cash? In your house? What if there is a fire?

Stock prices barely dropped due to the FOMC. Today we had a gap down on the stock indicies because SPY and Dow30 ETFs had a dividend so thats why it dropped a large amount. The bigger drops were with Gold and Silver. However bitcoin seems to have taken a bigger drop.

This is bearish because it sets a bad sentiment. People are assuming inflation is not bad as they assumed and people are buying the dollar again. The dollar was very cheap and people want to get in now before it goes higher and higher. So bitcoin is suffering as a result.

Who knows. Maybe next week this entire move can easily reverse and we can be at ATH in stocks and BTC might go back >$40K again.

If the OP is really serious he should make an account on Deribit and buy the Dec 31 2021 $16000 PUT option. Currently this option costs 0.03BTC. around $1100. So if BTC goes to $12K anytime before the end of the year, that option will be worth at least $4000, most likely much higher due to the premium. So unless BTC is $12K on Dec 31 2021, it will be worth maybe $5-6K.

So with a $1100 investment the OP can easily 5-6x his money. And even if he is wrong and it goes to like $19K, he will still most likely double or triple his money. He can also buy the Sept 24 2021 $16000 Put for only $400 currently. So if it goes to $12K before Sept 24th, that option will be worth at least $4K so he will 10x his money.

Most likely the high difficulty, lower price, and EIP 1559 are having an impact. I had a few old RX GPUs listed for sale on Craiglist. I had 2 people who were going to buy the RX GPUs on the weekend. However as soon as EIP 1559 was announced they both cancelled on me.  The price of ETH was much lower than it is now so people were already getting scared.

Also once the profitability drops way below $1/day/gpu then there will be alot of people who won't see the investment as wise. Like why buy a $1000 GPU to make less than $1/day. The ROI will be almost 3 years. Even if ROI was gauranteed many won't see it as a good investment and they will just put their money in stocks.

Usually home insurance never covers anything if its related to a business activity. If you run some shop, and you get robbed then the insurance won't cover it. Same with people who are driving for Uber. Since their car is used for commercial purposes they need special insurance. If you ever tried buying auto insurance in the last 2-3 years, you get constantely asked whether this vehicle will be used for Uber, taxi for hire, delivering packages from Amazon, delivering Uber Eats, etc.

If you are in some accident while you were delivering some Uber Eats and you had regular insurance they won't cover you. So mining activites also won't be covered. I've been mining for years and never had any issues. I haven't heard of any home miner burn down their house. I heard of maybe 2-3 actual large mining farms in China burn down but they had like 1000 ASICs.

What I learnt after owning tons and tons of GPUs which were mostly used for mining, never change the thermal paste unless its a fairly new card. If you got a GPU you have been mining for >3 years, don't change the thermal paste.

What happens is that the factory paste hardens and sticks to the GPU chip, to seperate from the heatsink you will need to use force to break it lose, and by doing this you will form microcracks in the solder balls between the GPU and PCB board. So after a few weeks you will get issues with the GPU. Your rig will crash, won't start, or you will get BSOD upon Windows boot. And the temps didn't improve at all in the first place.

If your GPU is fairly new then you can do it because the paste is probably still fresh and won't be glued to the GPU.

I am pretty sure that most miners don't have extra insurance to cover home crypto mining. They assume that if they just have regular home insurance that covers fires that its sufficient. Fires are rare so I don't think there are too many cases where a mining rig burnt down an entire home. Most of the issues I had in the past some cable melted and the rig just crashed, it never started any fires.

If fires were more common I am pretty sure we would have many people on here complaining saying that their mining rig burnt down their house and their insurance didn't cover it since mining is a business and they didn't have supplemental insurance to cover it. Wonder what others will say about this issue.

What I have learnt being in crypto since 2014. The best time to sell is when you think it can't stop going higher and best time to buy is when you don't think it can stop going lower and lower. Right now people are already bearish and the sentiment is bad. I don't think this is the high, I think we will go higher in the $40Ks most likely somewhere to like $48-50K and it'll top out there for a few months.

There are many people who bought at those levels who will want to get out at break-even. And more people bought at $55K who will also want to cash out so I don't think we will reach $55K in the next few weeks. Most likely sideways for a few months and then maybe ATH later in the year.

We might or might not break the $30K area again and heads towards the $20K area. Many people will probably sell when we touch $20K and that will be the perfect time to buy.

$40K is not that important what is important is the $42-$43K area. Reason why because a few months back $42K was our old ATH and later on when we broke it and then started to dip, we went to $43K, and when we broke down last month and hit $30K we bounced all the way to $42K and got rejected again.

People are bearish now according to the funding rates so I am assuming we will get a huge squeeze if we break $42-43K. However the markets lately have no volume, so I don't think we will break ATH until at the very least Fall or Winter of 2021. You can tell just by looking at the low fees for bitcoin and ethereum transactions.

I at first also assumed it might be bitcoin reversed however when we hit $42K ATH and we came close to retesting this area, in the chart below it didn't come close to the pivot so I knew it wasn't bitcoin.

The chart is basically short term bullish but long term bearish. It had a long downtrend and its time for some upside. It had a failed low and it also breached the prior pivot high and made a new higher high as it bounced.

So most likely it'll go a little higher however it'll eventually run into some resistance and probably start to head back down. If it goes back down it'll probably resume this trend and break to newer and newer lows.

Setting stop at $40174 doesn't really make much sense. The $40K isnt resistance, the resistance is more like $42K. $42K Was the ATH a few months ago, then we broke it and we went to like $43K on a dip. Then when we broke all the way down to $30K we got rejected at $42-$43K or so. So the smart play would be to put your stop near those areas because if it breaks $42K then most likely the next resistance will be closer to $50K and you don't want your position underwater this much.

I think the reason why this trade didn't work is because the stop was way too tight. So great R:R however you can get easily stopped out like you did. Better to wait for confirmation first before guessing where this train is going to stop.

What is interesting is that a few days ago someone opened some $500,000,000 short position on bitcoin. That position is currently underwater, I think the average fill was like $36K or so. Nobody knows why they would open a position so big. Maybe they know something. However there is no other reason to open a position this big really. You can't make much profits by doing a cash and carry since the short is costing him more.

There is a good chance that this position might eventually get claimed by the user depositing the BTC and just closing the position without moving price. This happened before actually and when the position was opened was a top pretty much. Then a few days later they just claimed the position. Most likely did it not to move the markets too much.

Lately in the past week there was tons of bullish news. One of them was the El salvador which made bitcoin a legal tender. This is huge news because it means that other countries might make it legal tender also. Another one was Saylor annoncing that they want to raise for debt to buy bitcoin. Intitially it was $400M then it was $500M which was accepted however the total amount that people offered was $1.6B actually, which implies that there is still huge demand there.

Yesterday there was a positive tweet from Elon Musk again. Claiming that they still hold 90% of BTC and that they will accept bitcoin again when 50 % of the energy is clean. Which is funny because currently 75% of all bitcoin mining is based on clean energy, not sure he got that memo.

He tweeted yesterday, that they are still holding 90% and only sold 10% to test liquidity. And that they will start accepting BTC for Tesla purchases once 50% of the electricity is used by clean sources. Some say this is the reason BTC kept rallying up to $40K where a day before it looked like it was going to break $35K and head for $30K.

So once again his tweets seem to be affecting the market. Another one is Saylor who first announced an $500M bitcoin offering purchase and today he announced that they want to dilute the Microstrategy shares up to $1B so they can use the funds to buy more BTCs.

Really curious what the stock price of Microstrategy will be tomorrow when the markets open.

What a difference 24 hour can make. Yesterday I made a post here saying that things are not looking good and most likely we will retest $30K and break then. And we are almost at $40K right now. I took a short at $36K and it didn't work. Because yesterday it looked like it was going to break-down.

However whether the Elon tweet had anything to do with it or not we will most likely break $40K soon and probably retest that $42K resistance. Very crazy how it completly turns around on you when you start getting bearish. So most likely when everyone gets bullish it'll go back down probably.