...

frankuestein, unamis76, Holliday

Thank you all for your insights into the way that BTC works in these circumstances.  We are now entering into terra icognita for me, beyond my limits to intelligently (?) comment.

Higher fees are not the whole solution (though perhaps an important part.)  The system itself must get more robust.

Many of us have been complaining (when the system is under stress) for at least as long as I have been here at bitcointalk.  I am perplexed and dismayed that the developers and miners cannot or will not FIX this.

Aaaanndd it may get worse...

If the developers and the miners blow this (screw up implementation), that might be a death-knell.   "Sudden Death" as the whole Bitcoin Ecosystem suffers a horrible blow that prevents new people from coming in and scaring off people like me who are tired of the developers and miners not WORKING (together) to get this fixed.

And it might get even worse...:

If they do not put in a permanent fix (or system or upgrade path), then we may see all of this again in 2, 3, 4 years as BTC keeps growing. It would be thoughtless for them NOT to plan that the system will grow, and hence anticipate future issues.  I hope they are thinking ahead...


*  *  *

AgentofCoin

You raise good points.  It may very well be that costs of the BTC Ecosystem may be higher than alternatives.  And I can live with (say) $0.50 - $1.00 fees (low kb sized trx) as I too value BTC vs. other payment methods.

But, we still may continue to have such problems even if EVERYBODY pays fees like $0.50 and keep the same volumes of trx we see now.

...

frankuestein just wrote:

"BTC won't be lost forever.

Some third party services, merchants or even people like you and me using a wallet like Electrum can set an expiry date for a payment request. An example of a use case could be to prevent customers from submitting payments after the quoted price is no longer valid.

That's why your bitcoins won't be lost and wallet addresses don't expire. In case you send bitcoins to a third party service like kraken or you use a payment gateway like coinbase, you'll have to follow its rules and this is not bitcoin's 'fault'."


Bitmixer.io for one has addresses that expire in 24 hours.  They then DELETE the address & account info.  As far as I know, that means any BTC arriving late is GONE.  And that would be terrible for the unwary who might lose a big chunk of money when the blockchain is stopped-up...

Keep in mind that while I am NOT a programmer, I continue to have my doubts re BTC (and its critical on- and off-ramps) can survive a determined attack by .gov, especially should they all act in concert (likely sooner or later).  The "Big Rhino" (US government) employs smart and determined people too.  Many of these .gov employees RESENT the freedoms that we still have in cyberspace.  It will likely get harder and harder to maintain privacy & financial freedom...

If it becomes sufficiently burdensome for "the masses" (I am one of them) to buy and spend BTC or other cryptos (got to have that gold delivered somewhere), that would never mean mass adoption.

And that, dear readers, is why I stay diversified.  You never know.

...

It's chappin' my butt too.  I just paid $0.97 a little while ago, it confirmed right away (first block).  I sent one out yesterday with $0.90 or so, it took a couple of blocks even using ViaBTC's acceleration service (they only take 100 trx per hour though).

This is serious, as there are some wallet addresses that EXPIRE after a certain number of hours, if the trx does not go through, BTC could be lost forever...



EDIT: Interesting observation there, Holliday.

...

I today just paid BTC0.00085 (approx. $0.97) for a 223 byte trx.  91,000 unconfirmeds when I did that.  It confirmed at the first new block.

Most of my transactions are "important", so I will just pay up for the next while.  But, I am almost done with moving BTC around, so I will let my BTC lay low for awhile and hope the miners & developers get their act together and fix this...

...

OK, I just sent off a trx (very simple, 223 bytes) and paid $0.97 fee.  It went out at 3:42 PM (US ET).

That's apparently a big fee, but when I checked the mempool (via blockchain.info), it had 91,000 (!!), so I decided on a big fee.

While writing this post, I checked, and the trx was just confirmed (3:47), and the mempool is now "down" to 89,000.


This really, really needs to be fixed.  Come to a consensus, guys (developers, miners).  Else you may KILL Bitcoin.

Programmers are a bright bunch.  For enough money (I postulate HUGE amounts) someone may come up with a way.

Hear you re controlling flows of money.  That's why I think someone will find a way...

...

As I write there is another huge number of transactions in limbo.

Time to solve this problem, guys (lead developers).  Shape-up and fix this.

I grow somewhat disenchanted w/ BTC, even w/ paying higher fee (when I can) or w/ acceleration.

...

Comments on SHTF and TEOTWAWKI

This should perhaps be a more extended essay, but I pass along these thoughts as they seem to be not much discussed especially in the whole precious metals vs. cryptos conversation.

Which "investment" is the "best" all depends on what happens.  That is such a simple-minded statement, but a neglected thought (and more complex than the statement appears at first glance) in most of these discussions of a SHTF.

It has always been my working thesis that none (let's say very few) of us can know the future.  It is too complex, and whatever variables that Armstrong can crunch (and his work appears to be of great value) cannot foresee events caused by the Beijing Butterfly's flapping wings...  Imagination and information (which Armstrong has) cannot cover all the bases.

Nonetheless, there are trends that do appear to be unstoppable, or nearly so.  iamnotback & Armstrong, IMO, both appear to be correct in their general analyses of trends that look to be very powerful, and even explanatory, in shaping events to come.

* * *

SHTF and TEOTWAWKI are really two separate sets of events (the way I look at them) that overlap.  First comments on my take of the theme of SHTF.

A "SHTF" can be as mild as a 2008 stock market crash, which of course was pretty shitty to those who were exposed...  But the term SHTF seems to be used more (here) as a bigger event, let's say the most commonly cited SHTF would be a large-scale financial collapse that shuts down many parts and conveniences of modern society, but leaves the infrastructure intact.  This set of possibilities would be similar in scale & scope to the Great Depression of the 1930s, in that the electricity stayed on, the factories were left intact (if idle for awhile).  A version of this kind of SHTF would likely leave many impoverished (perhaps no credit cards functioning, no access to their bank accounts), but the bulk of our fixed investments (includes bridges, etc.) that provide great societal value would stay intact.

Of course a SHTF would likely, surely even, manifest itself in unpredictable ways.  Thus, I try to cover many bases, as I certainly cannot predict how this wrinkle vs, another would turn up...

iamnotback refers to various historical scenarios, for example (ex-Yugoslavia, FerFal's experiences in Argentina) where silver and gold were not used as "money" (perhaps "currency" would be the better term).

This apparently is true.  In my own studies of societies in crisis, I have not yet read of one using silver coins as their Medium of Exchange.  It always has been the nearest strong currency (US$, the DM) that such societies adopt.  We can learn from the experiences of the past...

[I hold a little, not much but some, silver]

You never know, so a small holding of silver makes some sense.

Gold is best used as a Store of Value, but it is unclear if gold's role as the premier store of value will always continue so.  In a severe SHTF, gold might only be able to be used:

1)  For large transactions (eg, buy a small farm for 20 oz)

2)  To preserve wealth through a difficult time (similar to the idea of gold being "insurance")

I also acknowledge iamnotback's comment on use of gold to pay for items in a country like the Philippines, or possible almost anywhere, might lead to missing fingers due to robberies...  Use of gold to pay for groceries (etc.) might become rather problematic than is foreseen.

Nonetheless, we can observe the behavior through history of the very wealthy to gain clues as to "what works".  The Rothschilds have been exposed to peril on-and-off for centuries.  They have invested their very large wealth in castles, vineyards, fine art.  They also own a large amount (how much is unknown) of gold.  The castles, art and vineyards can all be confiscated in a SHTF, perhaps later to be returned to the descendants of those whose wealth was so taken.

Gold, however, can be hidden...

Crypto(s) have a place in many of these kinds of events.

Note that all larger-scale events mentioned here are "SHTF Scale" events.

* * *

A "TEOTWAWKI" is not just a larger-scale SHTF, in my opinion.  While my concept of a TEOTWAWKI is perhaps slightly different than the "consensus opinion", it has guided my thinking in how to think about and prepare for it.

While a SHTF would be comparable to the Great Depression, the scarier TEOTWAWKI is more like McCarthy's The Road, or perhaps Orwell's 1984 would be apt as well.

No electricity.  Famine & thirst almost everywhere.  Anarchy and chaos (the bad kinds).  No modern comforts.  Pandemics and violence.

In such, I believe that I would just give up beyond a certain point.  Gold would be useless, or nearly so in the worst scenarios...

My characterization of TEOTWAWKI also eliminates cryptos as a valid asset.  Sorry, but paper wallets mean nothing in a world of wandering refugees.  In these kinds of scenarios, only a water well and guns & ammo count for much.  But what happens when the ammunition runs out...?

* * *

In thinking about Doom Porn, I also looks at the probabilities.  Various kinds of SHTF, IMO, are more likely than the more horrific TEOTWAWKIs.  The impact of the latter is much greater, but the probability is lower.

So, in sum, as we cannot accurately predict the future (we can identify issues and make guesses as to probabilities), I have chosen to diversify my assets (assets in all meanings of the word).

That is why I hold some gold.  More than the average HODLER, but gold is not, as iamnotback mentioned in various comments, a panacea.  As he also wrote:

"There are no panaceas."

...

tabnloz & iamnotback

Thank you both for making this recent discussion reach a higher level than I had even hoped for.  Armstrong is a fount of ideas I see nowhere else, even if sometimes wrong.

Nor had I ever considered that TB might come back, bigger and badder than ever.

I believe it was the Chinese who said that problems are never resolved.  Only put away for a time, just to come back later.*


* Or maybe that was Armstrong...   


* * *

tabnloz just referred to Jim Rickards' new book.  I read it a couple of months ago (as I have read his earlier books).  Highly recommended.

...

I still feel (and have for years) that someone is going to make a LOT of money by setting up an easy & hassle-free way to buy BTC without all the fuss & bother of verification (KYC/AML).   This would bring a LOT of money into that exchange.  Yes, it would be hard for that outfit to find a home country, get trust and be able to get into the banking system..., sure I understand all that.

But, programmers in some cases are among the brightest people on our planet.  Someone is going to figure this out (ah, not me, I am not a programmer) and make a mint.  A gold mine to the one who finds the Key here...

...

I would be somewhat interested in learning more about this opportunity.  I would be a passive investor only.

If any project advances to your satisfaction, sanbel, I would welcome a PM with a few details.

...

I think an active ETF that trades Bitcoin price would be a good thing.  For the ETF to actually be worth anything, it would have to actually own BTC, no?  Else it is just a paper fraud.

And with a BTC ETF, Bitcoin would gain great visibility as people learn about it, get educated and use it.

...

Well that is good news.  But, how good?

Well, to answer that, I hope that we can get some feedback from people who actually have been to Arnhem recently (or better yet LIVE there) and hear their experiences.

Has anyone actually been there?  Please tell us of your BTC experiences.

Were your two confirmed transactions confirmed by another mining pool (ie not ViaBTC)?

I had a few small transactions (w/ fee of BTC0.0001 each) confirmed before a block won by ViaBTC came along.  I am curious as to how ViaBTC would be able to do that.

But, good on ViaBTC to offer such a service!

...

tabnloz

It's hard to say how a BAD FUTURE would come down upon us.  Whether hard & fast or Japan-like slow & grinding.  Or some combination or something else.

* * *

A couple of Armstrong links for the thread to enjoy.

Europe is suffering from vegetable shortages due to cold weather in Spain:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/extreme-cold-hitting-europe-creating-food-shortages/

A gold standard would not work (I agree, so does FOFOA):

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/trump-gold-standard/



This link got all kinds of attention today and yesterday (at Zero Hedge and shtfplan.com as well):

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/entertainment-industry-is-leading-charge-to-civil-war/

All kinds of bad shit lookin' to happen.......

...

I have to grant r0ach a point re Armstrong NOT changing his predictions in response to new data (Trump winning).  My general understanding of how to analyze events is to update models and predictions as new facts come in.

* * *

"Everyone wants a weaker dollar."

-- a prominent blogger

What that means, and how likely real action will be taken is a key question.  In the end, a weaker dollar is what we will get.  It may get stronger for a while as money flees the weaker currencies, but a weaker dollar is the end-game.

The working scenario that I follow (along with a small group of active investors I associate with) is that we will likely get some kind of unpleasant deflation followed by a hyperinflation.  This has happened so many times in history that it seems to be a tool for .govs.  A hard deflationary event is hated by banks and other powerful types, so once it hits, .gov will bail-out its buddies (and make themselves temporarily popular with its citizens) by printing.

...

This whole War on Cash is getting worrisome and tiresome.  For sure it is an assault on our liberties, in a variety of ways.

-- Electronic cash in banks are at risk of being hacked!
-- Would you really want .gov to be able to follow all of your purchases?
-- First comes negative interest rates..., should people try to withdraw their cash, then bam!  Hammer comes down.  We lose...

Yes, vote any politicians OUT who support these very bad ideas.

Yes, BitHodler, it is nice that a mining pool has offered to help move small-fee (BTC0.0001 or more) transactions.  I "accelerated" some 10 transactions when I was stripping a mobile wallet that had small amounts in various addresses.

And, yes, it was free!  I also should note that some of those transactions were confirmed BEFORE ViaBTC won a block.  I have no explanation for that.  Just lucky?