We REALLY need something like this. In the meantime, while this is in development people can try my "futures" experiment: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=10008.0

I think it should be a good gauge about how much demand there is for bitcoin derivatives.

If you guys have opinions on where the bitcoin prices are going, put your money where your mouth is!: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=10008.0

If I do this again, maybe I'll do +/- 5% instead of +/- $0.50 to win.

I see it in block explorer. I sent 0.1 BTC to your address. 4 more people are gonna get the freebie!

I'll use the best data available from the biggest exchange running. If for some reason winners cannot be chosen in a way that seems fair to me, I will just return all bitcoins to the original betters.


Buy some bitcoins

All bets are publicly visible here: http://blockexplorer.com/address/1945qfobZxdnmVJ6qBd4FgcVcWBhDXKiTV

Probably anybody who bets should also post it here so that previous betters get notified by the forum, and this thread stays more visible to other potential betters who might give you their money

Hmmm. I should probably mention the bitcoin futures experiment I am running: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=10008.0

50 BTC sent. You can view the bond here: http://blockexplorer.com/address/168bokgyuxUYp1HL7xeyZzQCj7dEKZQyuR

I can't think of any reason why it woudn't be safe to place bets now. Let me know if you guys can think of any other problems.

I just realized that there is no incentive to be one of the first people to bet. The first 5 people to post in this thread that they placed a bet of any size (include your address and the amount) will receive 0.1 BTC sent to the betting address from my personal wallet (not from the futures pool), to kick things off.

Sure. Obviously the closer we get to July 1st, the more confident someone can be about a bet they place. If I had no time component, all the bets would come in at the end.

Consequently, a bet placed 10 days before July 1st is weighted at half the weight of a bet placed 20 days before July 1st. If you bet 30 bitcoins one day before July 1st, you would receive the same winnings as another winner who bet 1 bitcoin 30 days before July 1st.

Make sense?

Note: my previous post in this thread has now been updated.

Very good point. This is NOT a good way to hedge against a bitcoin collapse (such a hedge would have to be denominated in a currency other than bitcoins, by definition). Betting on anything from a 50% drop to a big gain, however, should be quite profitable if you are right.

Of course nobody has placed any bets yet. I'm looking into posting a bond of my personal bitcoins with someone to prove my honesty.

Update: See the first post in this thread for current bond information.

Since there is no bitcoin futures market, I'm starting one. Speculate now on the value of bitcoins on 7/1/2011.

This is an experiment, so please don't bet your life savings.

Rules:

1) All bets will be tracked at this newly created address in a currently-empty wallet: http://blockexplorer.com/address/1945qfobZxdnmVJ6qBd4FgcVcWBhDXKiTV
2) The "bitcents" represent your bet on the USD price of bitcoins on July 1, 2011 at noon U.S. pacific time. Examples:
      a) A bet of 1.13 BTC sent to that address is a bet of 1.13 BTC that bitcoins will be worth $13 USD on July 1st
      b) A bet of 12.08 sent to that address is a bet of 12.08 BTC that bitcoins will be worth $8 USD on July 1st
      c) A bet of 0.15 sent to that address is a bet of 0.15 BTC that bitcoins will be worth $15 on July 1st
      d) You can use sub-cents if you want. A bet of 0.015 BTC is placed on $1.50 per bitcoin
3) Winnings will be put in one pot and distributed as follows:
      a) 98% of the pot will go to the winners (those within + or - $0.50 of the final value, inclusive)
      b) 2% of the pot will go to me
      c) The pot will be split among winners by the size of their bet multiplied by the number of days in advance they made their bet (days will be fractional with resolution in seconds, per block explorer timestamps)
      d) Winnings will be returned to the sending address, so use the real bitcoin client, not a managed wallet
4) The reference price on July 1st will be determined by me, using my browser on MtGox, at exactly noon PST pacific time. If for some reason I am unable to do this, I will rely on MtGox records and/or forum members posting the price in this thread. I will do my best to be fair, and I will not be betting any of my own bitcoins, so I should be impartial.
      e) I will post the final price and who I think the winners are and how much they should get here for community vetting. I will allow for comments to accumulate over the following weekend, and then pay out on Monday Tuesday following the holiday weekend if there is no great scandal.
5) If an excessive amount of bitcoins are bet, I will probably seek a trusted forum member to hold some of the bitcoins so they aren't all in my care. My first choice would be _mndrix, followed by GavinAnderson. I would consider other highly trusted members if neither of them want to do it. Edit: See bond info below
6) New: As an incentive to kick things off, I'm offering 0.1BTC each to the first 5 betters: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=10008.msg144375#msg144375

Obviously placing multiple bets at different prices is going to be a common strategy.


Update: Michael Hendrix (of Coinpal/Coincard fame) has agreed to hold 50 of my personal bitcoins as a bond against any mishaps with the money. You can see where he posted in the thread below with his PGP signature agreeing to hold my bond. You can view the bond here: http://blockexplorer.com/address/168bokgyuxUYp1HL7xeyZzQCj7dEKZQyuR

For posterity, here is the email I sent him:

This is a terrific idea. I love the integration with Ebay. I don't need anything on Amazon right now, but I dropped 0.1BTC in your well just for being awesome.

I do lots of PHP, but I am in the U.S., so I haven't bothered trying to freelance here. People in other countries will be way less expensive.

It's all about supply and demand. We all know the upper-limit on supply (21 million bitcoins, most of which aren't for sale). That just leaves demand.

I've given it a lot of thought, and I believe that demand is going to be insane, for reasons that are rarely discussed on this forum. You can check out my reasoning in the thread in my signature: Bitcoin price increases are just getting started

Here, let me google that for you: http://www.google.com/search?q=craigslist+tor+ip

Thanks for the ads guys. Keep them coming!

Sadly, no. The level of trust people have in Craigslist spam asking them to install some random guy's software on their PC is shockingly low

Still, I am refining my pitch and hoping for the best.

Everybody who has posted here or has sent me a PM is either posting or getting set up to do so.

Please note that if you have trouble finding cities to post in that don't already have my ad, just wait a few days and look again. If I ever decide to stop paying for ads, I will post notice here.

This contract stuff could be incredibly important. What I don't see here is how to enforce the single most important kind of transaction bitcoin will be useful for: the bet.

Example: Person A wishes to bet Person B whether the price of bitcoins will rise or fall over the next 30 days.

Desired features:
 - If person A and person B agree on who won the bet, no third parties are needed
 - If they don't agree, a third party mediator settles the dispute and decides who gets the money
 - Both persons commit their bitcoins, and they are locked (can't be spent) until the bet is over
 - The terms of the bet (i.e. how to decide who won) are encoded in the contract and permanently embedded in the block-chain. The terms can be viewed by either party, and can be viewed by the mediator if they must be brought in to settle a dispute. In this case the terms might be: "If MtGox average of highest and lowest price on July 1st 2011 is lower than $10, person A gets all bitcoins, otherwise person B gets them. Disputes will be settled by person C." (bitcoin addresses and email addresses would be included for all parties)
 - The mediator should be able to take a fee if their services are needed

If someone is able to describe how the above contract system could be used for a bet like this one, I would be VERY interested. Extra points if the bet can pay out partially to both parties, i.e. "Person A pays 5 BTC now to get $50 USD worth of bitcoins from person B on July 1st 2011"

I also got this spam. I assumed it was just someone on the forum trying to be funny.

It amused me so much that I almost sent a little tip their way. But then I thought about how much that tip might be worth someday.