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1141  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Goldcoin and Stablecoin proposals on: August 10, 2011, 09:51:20 PM

I'm not sure what would happen in a total doomsday scenario, but I doubt the above would happen. I don't think a new "better" currency would cause everyone to suddenly jump all at once away from Stablecoin. Instead, it would be a gradual migration where the price of Stablecoin would be consistently under the target. The transfer fee would kick in to destroy the Stablecoins at a regular rate which is exactly what we would want.

A doomsday scenario which is very likely to occur would be like the Mt Gox hack. What happens if a bunch of Stablecoin was stolen and the thief doesn't care about the exchange rate and just dumps the coins on the market. Since something like that has already happened with bitcoin, we can assume this would happen with just about any digital coin.

This scenario will cause some issues, but I think Stablecoin would survive. Lets look at each step of the thief's sale to see how Stablecoin would react.

1. The thief initially tries to dump all of his stolen coins on the market. All of the bids are cleared from the market and the price of Stablecoin drops. If the thief is able to dump all of his coins, he gets away with the money, and a bunch of others buy really cheap Stable coins. If not, He has to wait for more bids.

2. The thief still has more coins to dump and some of those with cheap coins may want to sell at a slightly higher price than they bought them at. If the transaction fees haven't change yet, this is really step one with the addition of more people selling below the fair value. When the transaction fees change, the program will now calculate a very low value for Stablecoin and end up with really high transaction fees. If the thief tries to sell, he will lose much of his stolen coins to transaction fees. Also, anyone who purchased cheap Stablecoins and wants to sell out, or anyone panicking will also pay high transaction fees. Some people will choose to pay the transaction fees, others will not.

There's the important distinction, choice. Some people will choose to return some coins to the either because the coins didn't cost them anything to begin with or they have lost faith in Stablecoins. Either way, coins are destroyed. Hoarders can hoard their coins until the price comes back up. Of course, with so many coins being destroyed, the price will come back up.

Also, the transaction fees are a disincentive for the thief to dump his coins all at once. If he does, he won't make as much money as he would if he sold them slowly. There will likely be some level where he doesn't care about the transaction fee and just wants to dump the coins. But, that would just allow some people to buy cheap coins for a while and allow some of the stolen coins to disappear.

3. Finally, some coins are destroyed, others end up with some cheap coins. The big downside, Stablecoin isn't as stable as the name suggests. It will be influenced by the market, but the goal is to always go back to a specific price. I believe it will do that even in this doomsday scenario.

I think only a real-life experiment can determine if you are right. How high should the fees go, in your opinion?

One thing I don't like about high fees is that they discourage commerce if stablecoins happen to be priced too low rather than too high. If you want the ideal coin for commerce, this doesn't work as well, since 50% of the time there are fees and 50% of the time there are not once equilibrium is reached. I agree it might work pretty well if it is mostly seen as a store of value.

One other thing that bothers me is the user who just wants to store value, and access it later when they need it. If they happen to need the money while the coin-base is shrinking, you have effectively cut off access to their funds unless they want to surrender a big portion of the supposed value of the coins. I realize that is the point (to discourage people from cashing out when prices are too low), but from a marketing perspective adoption would be much more widespread if someone else (shareholders is my vote) was bearing most of the shrinkage risk.

You may be completely right that this will work with only tiny fees and gradual destruction of coins when necessary, but any violent price swings are going to make these coins less ideal for both commerce and store of value.

If that volatility risk can be transferred somehow as I described, these coins become much better behaved, both for commerce and for storing value. The "bankruptcy scenario" I described above could fail gracefully into the fee-based system you describe, but during any normal market, you would get nearly perfect stability without any fees.
1142  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Goldcoin and Stablecoin proposals on: August 10, 2011, 09:33:48 PM

How about a very limited type of exchange within the main chain:

Every block contains a price inserted by the miner.  A block solution must contain a signature on a standard contract using the coinbase output keypair.  The contract is an option to:

    buy at the quoted price plus a standard spread (e.g., 1%)
    or
    sell at the quoted price minus a standard spread

an amount of the underlying commodity equal to the block reward.  The option expires in 10 minutes(?) and can only be exercised by solving a block with this block as its parent.  To exercise such an option, a miner must set a special flag in the next block.  The two miners have to find each other and settle up (no need to specify how) before either can claim his block reward.  They must both sign something using their coinbase keypair and submit the signatures to the network before the network will recognize their block rewards.

Perhaps the spreads don't have to be standard, the contract can specify any prices straddling the quote.  Miners would be motivated to offer good terms in order to encourage the network to accept their blocks and thus validate their rewards.


There is, I believe, a much simpler way to exchange between bitcoins and stablecoins.

If the stablecoin protocol has visibility into the bitcoin network, then stablecoin users can mark their coins as "for sale" in the network, along with a bitcoin address and price.

When the stablecoin network sees bitcoins go to the address, it releases the stablecoins to the buyer.

There are a couple issues to work out, but I believe it would work. One issue is what happens if two bitcoin users try to buy the same stablecoins at the same time (answer: a buyer could send a tiny amount of bitcoins to "lock" the coins before sending the bulk of the coins. The first person to lock the coins has the right to buy them for a set amount of time.)
1143  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Goldcoin and Stablecoin proposals on: August 10, 2011, 09:12:08 PM
It sounds as if whatever it is that your coins are "shares" of has no assets.

If a corporation, for example maybe General Mining Corporation, actually owned assets, such as, for example, a bunch of mines, a bunch of mining rigs, or even a bunch of shares in various publicly traded sold, silver, platinum, paladium, iron, copper, etc etc etc mining corporations, and used a blockchain whose genesis block issued all coins ever to be issued of that blockchain, issuing them to GMC's treasury... then GM could use its actual assets to buy back any GMC coins it had issued at the same price it had issued them at or close to that price.

-MarkM-

The asset is a share in the stream of future coins that need to be distributed as the network grows. Miners would be paid in shares, which they could sell on the open market. When more stablecoins need to be issued to keep prices down, the shareholders would get them to keep or sell.

A share in a revenue stream does have value. The exact value I would leave up to speculators!
1144  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Goldcoin and Stablecoin proposals on: August 10, 2011, 07:02:53 PM
Another note on the doomsday scenario:

Even if you have shareholders as described above, a catastrophic loss of interest in stablecoins would eventually send share prices to zero, and there would be no further leverage to take coins off the market.

At this point, the shareholders are bankrupt, and it would seem wise for the protocol to "declare bankruptcy", wipe out the old shares, wipe out the excess supply of stablecoins (replacing them with some new post-bankruptcy shares), and go from there.
1145  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Goldcoin and Stablecoin proposals on: August 10, 2011, 06:05:29 PM
I think a more direct control over the supply of coins is required. Some mechanism needs to be created that allows the user base and interest in stablecoin to shrink by a large amount while still maintaining stablecoin values.

What if stablecoin sells shares like a company? Instead of distributing all new stablecoins to miners, some of them could be distributed to shareholders.

IN ADDITION to a transaction fee when the stablecoin prices drop, the protocol could sell new shares in exchange for stablecoins, taking stablecoins off the market.

Obviously if NOBODY wants stablecoins, there is no way for it to survive, but I think an additional measure such as this could help it survive a much bigger hit.

What do you guys think? Morpheus, I'm especially interested in your thoughts, since this is your baby.
1146  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Goldcoin and Stablecoin proposals on: August 10, 2011, 05:48:50 PM
So how about we contemplate the doomsday scenario for stablecoin:

  • stablecoin starts out wildly successful, miners get rich, everybody is happy
  • Stablecoin 2.0 comes out, and nobody wants the original stablecoins anymore
  • Everyone tries to sell their stablecoins all at once, price drops 99%
  • All confidence in the protocol is lost except a couple hardcore believers holding out hope that the protocol will somehow correct itself

What should the protocol do to transfer fees in this case? Is there a 90% transfer fee? 50%? 10%? If the transfer fee is too high, who is going to want to buy stablecoins? Transfer fees penalize buyers as well as sellers. If nobody wants to buy OR sell, there is no incentive for prices to go up. Stablecoin simply dies.

It would seem that the transfer fee needs to be pretty small even when the price diverges by a large amount from the underlying asset, otherwise the new currency is completely ruined. On the other hand, if the coins cease to track the underlying asset, nobody wants to hold the coins anymore, and the currency is completely ruined.

Morpheus - have you considered how to handle a doomsday scenario like this?
1147  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: New release of MultiCoin client a branch of the BitCoin client on: August 10, 2011, 05:24:12 PM
The multicoin client will use whatever network/blockchain the config file specifies.

The default config file is $DATADIR/bitcoin.conf.
The default datdir is ~/.bitcoin/bitcoin.conf, the same as the satoshi client.

To use it with namecoins, rename bitcoin.conf.namecoin to bitcoin.conf and put it in your datadir.
If you made a /home/mot/.bitcoin/namecoin directory, and started multicoind like this:

Code:
multicoind -datadir=/home/mot/.bitcoin/namecoin

It will use the /home/mot/.bitcoin/namecoin/bitcoin.conf file.

Or specify the config filename with -conf=

Code:
multicoind -datadir=/home/mot/.bitcoin/namecoin -conf=/home/mot/.bitcoin/namecoin/bitcoin.conf.namecoin

Call rpc commands like so:


Code:
multicoind -datadir=/home/mot/.bitcoin/namecoin/ getinfo

multicoind -datadir=/home/mot/.bitcoin/weeds/ getinfo


All of this is the default behavior of the satoshi client.

So only one block-chain at a time? I was hoping it would have multiple tabs - one for each block chain . . .
1148  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: New release of MultiCoin client a branch of the BitCoin client on: August 10, 2011, 05:14:20 PM
All right, this seems worth trying out.  This could be a very important project I think.

I just built the multicoin and multicoin-qt programs.   No real issues to get it all to build.   The multicoind does not run without
some config files in place,  muticoin-qt does run, and seems to default to the bitcoin blockchain, as it seems to be downloading that now and gave me the 1AFHAdPE1GWeL6NDp1nKhCa3pFGywJVTg1 address....  more  once that is done downloading.

Edit:   been stalled at block 112,000 for awhile now...

It is an absurdly important project. Once it gets easy to make new block-chains and run them simultaneously, all kinds of crazy experiments are going to happen.
1149  Bitcoin / Press / Re: Bitcoin press hits, notable sources on: August 10, 2011, 01:29:06 PM
According to this.. we're all just being manipulated by islamic radicals.. 

Pat Dollard’s “Night Watch” Ep. 1 Jihadis, Bitcoin, and Anonymous/Lulzsec

Anarchy, Islam & Bitcoin: The New World Order Of Terror

http://ameristroika.wordpress.com/2011/08/09/pat-dollards-night-watch-ep-1-jihadis-bitcoin-and-anonymouslulzsec/


Despite the sensationalist title, the guest speaker seems to understand bitcoin fairly well. However, there's no actual evidence of Islamic terrorists using bitcoin in this story or any other. The story claims that lulzsec tweeted that they donated to the Taliban, a claim I cannot find any support for anywhere else.
1150  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: New release of MultiCoin client a branch of the BitCoin client on: August 09, 2011, 05:48:05 PM
Can anyone besides the author confirm they were able to run both bitcoin and namecoin protocols and do transactions with both using this client?
1151  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Goldcoin and Stablecoin proposals on: August 09, 2011, 05:44:08 PM
Stablecoin is an appealing goal, but ultimately it's not necessary.

Over time, Bitcoin usage will grow rapidly and then eventually stabilize. Over time, new Bitcoins are generated but in smaller and smaller quantities, so the supply will eventually stabilize.

Therefore, if we give Bitcoin a bit of time to find its long-term value, it's going to be fairly stable anyway.
We don't know how long it will take for bitcoin to get stable, or how stable it will be. Stablecoin gives us known stability right now. Also, this method of tracking an external price has a HUGE number of applications. Stablecoin is only one of them.

I can only think that only a real market can control a price of any commodity or currency and the a central bank that dumps and buys as needed to control the price would be the only way I know to make a stable currency possible.  as I said before you can peg the value of a currency to anything you want.  It's "The Trust" holders that should decide what they want to hold as there base of value of the asset holdings and just use the crypto coins to pass the value for P2P transactions.  I have almost completed the infrastructure to make all that possible in the BeerTokens model http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=9493.msg138247#msg138247.  The first beerA coins have already been minted with the new merge mining feature using MulitCoin-exp https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=24209.msg300830#msg300830.  With MultiCoin  we also can setup secure exchanges with escrow deposits to prevent third parties from stealing from a central exchange.  I will continue to develop what I feel is missing in the infrastructure to make what  sounds some of you want in the near future.  The basic concept is that the holders of "The Trust" decide how they want things to be and what needs to be changed, Not the developers and miners.  Each holder on record has a voice.  You just have to make it heard by being a part of it.

Like you, I started with the idea of a fund which would be collectively held to back up the value of new coins/tokens released. I eventually became convinced that Morpheus' idea was better due to its incredible simplicity.

I haven't tried to use Multicoin, but morpheus stated he was unable to get it to work. The future of distributed currencies is definitely going to be one client which is able to support multiple block chains, and hopefully even a distributed exchange built in for converting between them. I suggest you put some effort into getting morpheus set up to use multicoin!
1152  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: A new design suggestion: Pegged exchange rate of BTC on: August 09, 2011, 05:03:27 PM
I'm glad you guys were able to make up.

I was shocked to realize that I actually DO have a way to send him negative coins (well, something very similar anyway). By not paying him 0.1BTC he would otherwise have won, I effectively sent him -0.1 BTC here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=31057.msg443612#msg443612

I just couldn't resist the opportunity to follow-through on what I originally thought was an empty threat! :-P
1153  Other / Meta / Re: [1 BTC GIVEAWAY] 10 users will get 0.1 BTC for being my shill on this forum on: August 09, 2011, 04:58:36 PM
And the winners are:

marcus_of_augustus for being an early reply and for being funny: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=31032.msg390818#msg390818

olomana for the first solid set of criticisms: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=31032.msg391084#msg391084

notme for bringing up a solid use case for us to discuss: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=31645.msg399656#msg399656

hashcoin for his thoughts on importing data into the block chain: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=31645.msg400450#msg400450

jtimon for his numerous inciteful comments and passionate advocacy for demurrage

vector76 for another solid criticism: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=31032.msg401831#msg401831

notme again for actually being the only one to actually take my side of the argument: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=34538

bji for pointing out that it is probably not possible to get most bitcoin users to agree to a major change to the protocol: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=31645.msg401256#msg401256

jtimon again for pointing out the reliance on rising prices to make my system work: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=31032.msg402787#msg402787

jtimon yet another time for bumping my threads many times with further on-topic comments.

I excluded cunicula from getting a prize because he was a jerk to someone in another thread, then listed his donation address asking for a reward. I said I wished I could give him negative bitcoins. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=34151.msg443355#msg443355

Then later, while deciding the winners, I realized I COULD send him negative coins because he posted some intelligent comments in my threads and would have probably won a share of the prize money. By not sending coins he would otherwise have gotten, I have gotten as close to sending negative coins as is possible Smiley

I didn't have donation addresses for ANY of the winners above, so I sent PMs to each winner. Here are their responses:

That's okay, keep them for a rainy day.
(0.1 BTC will be donated to the faucet)

19QMwDKtRZVsiTposEk2RDPXVLfbABbadM

How about that?  I wasn't expecting to win anything.

Thanks for your efforts to improve the level of discussion in the forums.
(0.1 BTC will be sent to 19QMwDKtRZVsiTposEk2RDPXVLfbABbadM)

Faucet is fine.
(0.2 BTC will be donated to the faucet)

hashcoin: no response yet

Thank you. I'll start a bounty to develop freicoin.

You can send the coins to:

1N9u8az3nkztXP3xUcYFhoFsNAvARxBowq
 (0.3 BTC will be sent to 1N9u8az3nkztXP3xUcYFhoFsNAvARxBowq)

Thank you, that's generous of you.  Esp since I had nothing but criticism Wink

1N6kvsgWHSHfnScG31rBozNznrZnUBG1td
  (0.1 BTC will be sent to 1N6kvsgWHSHfnScG31rBozNznrZnUBG1td)

I admire your integrity; however, it's really not necessary to pay me for posting on your Bitcoin topic.  I do appreciate it.  You can send the bitcoins to the faucet or I wouldn't mind if you just kept them.
(0.1 BTC will be donated to the faucet)
1154  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: A new design suggestion: Pegged exchange rate of BTC on: August 09, 2011, 03:09:38 PM
May want to consider getting an education before posting. You are off-topic and out of your depth.

Well, if you say it, it must be true.  Thank you for setting me straight.

You might consider donating to show your appreciation.

Donation address: 1A76BH8MAkPGSuxZhbHAqVBp9BtX24DBe5

I hate it when people run out of logic and resort to insults. Anybody know a way to send negative bitcoins?

kjj, I think your reply showed class.
1155  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: A new design suggestion: Pegged exchange rate of BTC on: August 09, 2011, 02:47:45 PM
Pegged distributed currencies (the descendents of bitcoin) are quite possible, and they are on the way. Check out this thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=29135.0

I had my own schemes for how this could work, but I've decided that morpheus' idea is the best way to do it.

These new block chains will be highly dependent on bitcoin, for price discovery and for mining (using merged mining). If you (like me) think they will be ridiculously successful, it's time to buy some bitcoins.
1156  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Goldcoin and Stablecoin proposals on: August 09, 2011, 02:07:38 PM
The source of info on exchange rates is the single point of failure. Ever heard of the mtgox flash crash. Yup, that's failure.

Any coin traded is going to need multiple independent data sources, and some way to deal with data sources getting hacked. Keep in mind that the external price only sets a target which is approached over time by controlling supply. The actual price of the coins is set by supply and demand. A flash crash isn't going to change what people are paying for goldcoins. A sudden change like that might lower the amount of coins being generated, but it would not raise transaction fees - I expect they would come into play very slowly over a long period of time.

If the protocol sees that its data sources have wildly different prices, it won't know which target to use, and the rules to deal with that will need to be flexible enough for everyone using the coins to agree that "at block 1024, we'll stop using this compromised data source and add these two new sources". If your client doesn't vote on a decision like that, you get stuck with the new target that everyone else decides they want.

What if two of your three sources for gold prices get hacked, and there is significant disagreement on which new sources to use? In that case, you might split off a new block chain so you have two chains which recognize the old coins, but each chain uses their own rules for new coins (and new coins wouldn't be equivalent). Any old coin would get onto one of the new chains the next time it was spent.
1157  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Goldcoin and Stablecoin proposals on: August 09, 2011, 01:56:04 PM
I do not get Goldcoin. I mean, I understand the wildly awesome idea of selling free coins for the price of Gold. However, I do not understand why anyone would buy them instead of Gold itself. There is tremendous risk that Goldcoin would not actually match the price of Gold. There is exactly 0% risk, however, that Gold will not match the price of Gold. Saving transaction fees is not good enough to make up for the risk. I store gold. I do not pay transaction fees anyway.

So, lets say the first block of GoldCoins come out. What if nobody wants to buy them on an exchange? Simply reducing new supply will not help. It would be Dead on Arrival. Destroying coins will not work either. Why would I buy coins that can be destroyed? Why would I use transactions that have fees significant enough to make any difference on overall inflation/deflation rates? They would have to be huge. No thanks.

Even if the first few mined coins could be sold, the problem is new on every new block. If there are not enough buyers, GoldCoin would drop and may never come back. Price fixing on the exchanges cannot create demand, either.

I suppose you could destroy coins uniformly to get the price up. But, remember, you are destroying someones real wealth when you do that. If you need to delete half my GoldCoins to get the price up, how exactly does that help me? I paid for 10oz of gold and if I now have 5oz that means I lost money.

I am not saying Goldcoin is impossible. I just think that the equilibrium that keeps the price right would likely be a very small population of true believers. (You might be generating 1 goldcoin per day to avoid oversupply and God forbid if demand drops too fast.) Everyone else would find real gold much less risky and coin shops more convenient than Paxum/MtGox or whatever it takes to get GoldCoin. Or they buy bitcoin if they want a new currency. At least that has potential upside.


You are assuming that the protocol would dump a ton of coins in the first block. But what if rather than dump 50 ounces worth of gold coins, it only gives out 0.00001 ounces? That is worth about $0.02, and I don't think you would have trouble with oversupply.

I believe the protocol will need to err on the side of scarcity, especially early on. Artificial scarcity won't generate a massive bubble, since everyone knows the price will eventually converge with the underlying commodity, so it would be silly to pay 2x what they will be worth in a couple years. However, it will give people more confidence to hold these coins if there is more demand than availability.

I predict USDCoins (not the stable 1971 variety) will actually be the most popular one among the masses here in the states, not because it is a good investment, but because it will be easiest to understand. In other parts of the world I expect Eurocoins to be equally popular.

One thing I love about this idea is how extendable it is. If people want to trade coins denominated as Google stock, boom, Googlecoins are born. You just need agreement among all the clients on what data sources to trust and how to deal with data sources getting hacked.

It would be sweet if the integration with bitcoin will allow me to hold my money as goldcoins, stablecoins, etc, but then spend them to any bitcoin or goldcoin address. If it is a bitcoin address, then behind the scenes, the client would exchange the gold coins for bitcoins, and then send the bitcoins.
1158  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What Bitcoin stocks are good to bye? on: August 08, 2011, 08:23:31 PM
Thread title:

Quote
What Bitcoin stocks are good to bye?

Good to bye? Every last one of them is good to bye, IMHO. There may be one that is good to buy someday, but for now I don't see anything except stocks that are good to bye.
1159  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: TradeHill becoming TradeNill? on: August 08, 2011, 08:10:10 PM
Request that you update the thread title with something like [RESOLVED]
1160  Other / Meta / Re: [1 BTC GIVEAWAY] 10 users will get 0.1 BTC for being my shill on this forum on: August 08, 2011, 06:19:28 PM
Thanks to everyone who participated in these discussions.

I have decided that I like morpheus' idea better than my own, so I am locking my threads about this stuff, and I encourage anyone interested in concepts like this to check out his thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=29135.0

I will be deciding who gets payouts on my threads soon. Hopefully today.
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