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1521  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price increases are just getting started on: May 16, 2011, 10:56:43 PM
@dacoinminster, i believe you keep making the same analytical mistake, which is to be estimating the size of a 'market' and assuming that that size directs the fundamental value of a bitcoin. in the way you seem to want to be analyzing the fundamental value of a bitcoin, the proper measure is instead the demand for a bitcoin in equilibrium.

as a test, consider: what would prevent the scenario you describe (which is unlikely anyway for all sorts of reasons, and is actually not novel with you; there were discussions about it months ago) from being done with bitcoins that are at a tenth of their present value? a hundred? ten times? a hundred times? you're telling a story about fundamental value that is entirely orthogonal to fundamental value. it would be like saying that the price of hard disks has to increase because of all the new bandwidth devoted to youtube and bittorrent.

the fatwallet discussion gets this right, at least in concept. http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/finance/1090435/m15946753/#m15946753. you can plug in whatever figures you want to that kind of analysis, but at least it gives a good way to think about it.

as to the specifics of what you're saying, bitcoin is probably not anonymous enough to achieve it, and it's not clear there's enough demand for it. pretty anonymous betting and bookmaking institutions exist in most developed countries outside the united states, and they haven't taken over the economy or caused those countries' currencies to skyrocket. the fees for more mainstream transactions are already not very high, and most large traders don't care much about anonymity (or even the pseudonymity bitcoin provides).

the more typical story of bitcoin as a potentially useful payment system for goods and service is both more compelling and more realistic.

If Satoshi had designed bitcoins to stop at 21 billion, instead of 21 million, bitcoins would be worth 1000x less. If that's what you are saying about whether this is possible with cheaper bitcoins, then I agree with that part.

The equation I use is two parts:

1) How many USD are going to try to go into bitcoins?
2) What percentage of bitcoins are not for sale at any price (in the near term)?

The facts that I see driving stock traders towards bitcoins are as follows:
1) Cost per trade could theoretically be pennies instead of dollars (order 100x cheaper per trade)
2) Possibility to trade in ways that don't currently exist (like betting against stocks that have no shares available for short-borrowing, and have no options or futures contracts being traded - there are a huge number of little stocks that fit this description)
3) Possibility to trade anonymously (can you explain why you believe bitcoin is not anonymous enough for this?)
4) If designed correctly, there would be no central server which can be shut down to stop the trading activity
5) Ability to design and publish my own bet, on any security I want, and wait for somebody to take me up on it

Perhaps I haven't looked hard enough, but I haven't been able to find anyplace in the U.S. or outside the U.S. which offers even one of these advantages.

No matter what assumptions I make, the number of USD going into bitcoins always works out to be "at least a few billion USD". I doubt if half of the bitcoins in the world could be bought up, no matter how high the price goes, at least not in the near term.

It may be a long time before somebody becomes a trillionaire because of their bitcoin holdings, but I believe that bitcoins are more likely to bring about the world's first trillionaire than any other economic force I can think of.
1522  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The $1000 Bitcoin, yes it's worth at least that. on: May 16, 2011, 09:48:15 PM
But the real thing, that is many people using BTC in their everyday lives, has yet to happen.

This is a common misconception - that bitcoin must achieve widespread usage in order to be obscenely valuable.

As an average consumer, bitcoin doesn't offer me much that I don't already have. If bitcoin must be used for groceries to be successful, I'm selling all of mine today.

As a stock trader, the potential to trade ANY type of contract on ANY security at 100x cheaper price per trade completely anonymously changes everything. I probably won't actually do it myself (at least not at first - I'm too scared of the law man), but other people will do it in hordes.

People in Nigerian internet cafes will be able to bet a few pennies on any stock for any country in the world. Huge hedge funds will be able to place gigantic bets without anyone knowing where the bet came from.

It will be epic, and they will buy a couple of those bitcoins from me.
1523  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The $1000 Bitcoin, yes it's worth at least that. on: May 16, 2011, 07:09:41 PM
I 100% agree with the logic in post #1. In fact, I recently said something similar myself (see my signature).
1524  Economy / Services / Re: [GIG] Earn BTC for unghosting craigslist ads on: May 16, 2011, 06:20:51 PM
I'm now officially paying $1USD for every three ads posted (33.3 cents per post). This is retroactive for all posts you guys have done already.

I'm having trouble accessing bitcoin.org right now, so I apologize if I am slow to respond to PMs.

Everyone who has posted offers above is either posting ads for me, or is getting started on it.
1525  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How is the current market state NOT a bubble? on: May 13, 2011, 11:59:12 PM
I believe that the current rise in price is extremely bad for bitcoin as a whole. I don't view it as a bubble at all. I see it as a wall.

The problem is that almost the entire BTC economy is based on BTC vs. USD (or other current currency).

Who cares how much a bitcoin is worth if sites are simply adjusting the price of their goods for sale in BTC to the current value of the dollar.  It doesn't ever have to stop going up. It simply means that today a gallon of milk is .5BTC and tomorrow it could be .25. so if you go to buy .5BTC today it is 4USD if you go buy the BTC tomorrow it could be 8USD but the value of the milk hasn't changed. (Admittedly, I am not the best at putting my thoughts into sentences.)

The reason it is bad is that the seller of actual products, the ones who will help balance this whole thing out, that take the biggest risk right now because they have to pay for their product in USD... As the value of BTC increases, so does their risk in accepting it. For example, Biddingpond.com, how do I set a reserve price in BTC today for a product I want to sell. Today it may be fair. Tomorrow it could look ludicrous. Even worse, how do I bid on anything until the last minute? I know people snipe auctions anyway, but why list something for a week then. It would be crazy to bid until the last minute.

I am no economics guru. Grin Just posted this to see if I am missing something here or if my thinking is correct. Please educate me if I am wrong. Huh

Dafishman

You are quite right. All transactions should be denominated in USD, and the proper number of BTC should be sent when it is time to pay.

Bitcoin price fluctuations are NOT ideal for everyday transactions. That's why I suggested we need to create contracts that allow for the "StableCoin" via bitcoin derivative contracts. Read about it here.
1526  Economy / Services / Re: [GIG] Earn BTC for unghosting craigslist ads on: May 13, 2011, 09:23:08 PM
Why do you have to come from the US? I'm from canada, and craigslist works fine from here. oh, and i'll post for $0.10 per ad.

Canada should be fine. I'll send you a PM shortly.

I'm just trying to warn that Nigerian IP addresses and the like probably won't work for this Smiley

I'm already getting people started on this. I'm guessing people will update their prices once they get a feeling for how easy/hard this is.
1527  Economy / Services / Re: [GIG] Earn BTC for unghosting craigslist ads on: May 13, 2011, 08:24:33 PM
How many ads are there to do?

I'm willing to do it for .05 - .10 BTC per ad.

I'm going to do a few and see how this goes. I have posted hundreds in the past, and may do so again.

Please post prices in USD, so this thread will still have meaningful prices a month from now.
1528  Economy / Services / Re: [GIG] Earn BTC for unghosting craigslist ads on: May 13, 2011, 08:01:14 PM
Are you the guy all over craigslist offering to pay for the use of video cards?
It's not nearly as profitable as you might think. It's surprisingly hard to get people to install software from a random stranger they found on a craigslist ad Smiley

Still, ever the optimist, I'm willing to spend a few BTC to keep trying.

If anybody wants to discuss particular craigslist ads, mine or otherwise, please start a new thread. I would like this thread to be mostly bids so that people wanting this service can find workers quickly.
1529  Economy / Services / [CLOSED] Earn BTC for unghosting craigslist ads on: May 13, 2011, 07:51:00 PM
This gig is now closed. Original posting is below.

Quote
I do a LOT of business on craigslist, and even though my ads aren't spam, I have posted so many ads that my IP address is now perma-ghosted (anything I post pretends to be live, but doesn't show up in search results).

My ads only rarely get flagged, but I need some people who can "unghost" my ads by posting them from a clean IP address and dummy email account. If they later get flagged, that's my problem. You just get paid to get them up.

What you will need:

1) An IP address that hasn't been banned by Craigslist (that rules out ALL public proxies, and possibly most non-US IP addresses)
2) A U.S. phone number (for anyone posting more than just a couple ads)
3) Ability to create a dummy email address for the sole purpose of forwarding emails to me
4) Enough common sense to not discuss the ads here (that will just get them flagged)
5) Basic familiarity with craigslist, computers, and bitcoin

I will provide you with:
Text ads for you to post
Bitcoins, at $0.33 USD rate per ad posted (according to the current MtGox exchange rate at the time of payment)
1530  Economy / Speculation / Re: call an end to the rally on: May 13, 2011, 07:20:00 PM
It is my personal opinion that the rally is just getting started (see my sig).

There WILL be a peak, followed by panic selling, followed by wild price swings, possibly followed by higher peaks (or not), and then hopefully the market will reach some level of stability at some price. The final stabilized price is anybody's guess.

Hopefully before the peak, somebody will create a way to short bitcoin, so that people who call the peak can profit from the drop too Smiley
1531  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price increases are just getting started on: May 13, 2011, 07:13:12 PM
I too have considered posting comments questioning the viability of bitcoin, just so that prices would fall and I could buy some more.

Instead, I started this thread so I could sit back and watch the early adopters get filthy rich. Maybe one of them will send me a tip someday Smiley
1532  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How is the current market state NOT a bubble? on: May 13, 2011, 07:01:56 PM
For two weeks and no major reasons other than speculation, the price has gone from 2$/BTC to over 8$/BTC ....I've been on the forums for a long enough time to say that people talk more about getting rigs for mining, selling the currency for USD (equivalent), on pure speculation of the price. The actual commerce behind it isn't backing the price. I don't want Bitcoin to fail (I don't think it will in the long run) but bubbles hurt when they pop & market crashes are bad.

I don't believe 2$ to 8$ within two weeks is a healthy jump with so little to back it up. People are making such a killing in exchange rates at that point, the Bitcoin becomes the commodity itself to sell for an insane exchange rate.

I am completely certain it is a bubble, which sucks if you want to buy some bitcoins on the cheap.

HOWEVER, it is my personal opinion that the bubble is just getting started (see my sig).

There WILL be a peak, followed by panic selling, followed by wild price swings, possibly followed by higher peaks (or not), and then hopefully the market will reach some level of stability at some price. The final stabilized price is anybody's guess.
1533  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Mining too profitable? on: May 13, 2011, 07:00:04 PM
1) ATI cards everywhere are going out of stock, or are selling for huge markups.
2) It takes awhile for that ATI card you bought to get to you

You could almost meta-speculate on bitcoins by buying and selling ATI cards Smiley

Prediction: Within a couple years we will see hardware designed specifically for bitcoins.
1534  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Bitcoin is not used as money anymore on: May 13, 2011, 04:45:57 PM
Bitcoin price fluctuations are NOT ideal for everyday transactions. That's why I suggested we need to create contracts that allow for the "StableCoin". Read about it here.
1535  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Thoughts on modifying the bitcoin codebase to implement a complementary currency on: May 13, 2011, 04:39:19 PM
If you want to make a complementary currency, here's one for you: StableCoin.

Bitcoin is awesome if you want to speculate on the future of bitcoin, but that volatility makes the currency less useful for the everyday transactions it was designed for.

Stablecoin could be pegged to the USD, but backed by bitcoin and bitcoin speculation. For instance, I want to buy and sell S&P 500 futures using digital currency, but my profits and losses are obliterated by the wild bitcoin fluctuations. So I buy some stablecoins, which I do my business in, then cash out with my 2% winnings without worrying about what bitcoin values might do in the meantime.

A Stablecoin would just be an enforceable contract between me and a bitcoin speculator. The contract would be an agreement for me to sell bitcoins to the speculator at a set price in the future. I owe the bitcoins, and the speculator owes USD. I get protection from price swings, the speculator gets to profit from bitcoin price increases.

This contract could be settled entirely in bitcoins. For instance, the contract could be that I give the speculator 1 bitcoin on July 1st. The speculator agrees to give me $100 worth of bitcoins on July 1st. I now have a bitcoin which is worth $100, no matter what bitcoin prices do in the future. If the price on July 1st is $50, the speculator owes me 2 BTC. If the price is $1000, the speculator only owes me 0.1 BTC.

I really don't have any idea what protocol would be required to do this, enforce the contracts, etc, but I believe there will be a lot of demand for something like this in the future.
1536  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Has anyone already payed Bitcoin-related taxes? on: May 12, 2011, 10:56:52 PM
This is an important question, and will be come increasingly important as more people start getting significant bitcoin income.

I plan to talk to a tax accountant, but I believe I will be able to treat my bitcoins as if they were any other collectable coin. That is, if I make money selling them someday, I'll be treated as if I sold any other appreciating asset. Same thing as if I had bought some confederate dollars at a flea market that appreciated wildly for some reason.

In the meantime, I'm careful that my USD inflows (selling bitcoins) match my outflows (investing in mining and bitcoin projects), which I am hoping will make tax time simpler.
1537  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price increases are just getting started on: May 12, 2011, 10:52:16 PM
But we're not there yet. Not in users, usability, support, hell I still believe the protocol is not stable after minting. The hype is nice and all, but there's A LOT to be fixed still. Hyping price jumps are nice but only do so much, we need this thing polished, used in more real trading, and designed fit for real market sizes. Prices are either just getting started or they'll just drop again if nobody overcomes current weaknesses. That top-or-flop question is much more interesting than estimating some later price within some scenario.

You are quite right about usability, but usability will get better really fast as more developers get interested.

As for the protocol, if there is a weak point there we are all doomed, but I personally think that anything like that would have been exploited by now.
1538  Economy / Economics / Re: What spurred the New Rally to $6? on: May 12, 2011, 10:03:48 PM
I know why the price is going up so much. It's in the new signature I just made:
1539  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: Cooperative mining (180Ghash/s) on: May 12, 2011, 09:11:17 PM

Quote
i also like that the account name changes color if active or not makes it easyer to sort thru

Actually you have time of last submit here already, but agree that some visual thing would be nice.


The greasemonkey script also has an option to color-code by how recently a worker has sent in data. Look at the first post in this thread for a link to the script.

And any time anybody mentions my script, I always put out the hat for some shameless begging. If the script makes your life easier, please donate: 19hMEAaRMbEhfSkeU4GT8mgSuyR4t4M6TH
1540  Other / Obsolete (buying) / Re: [closed] $100 MtGox USD for sale on Ebay on: May 12, 2011, 07:16:53 PM
Why not just lower your buy it now price?

Overhead costs described earlier in this thread (ebay, paypal, shipping)
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