why are shares so cheap on the BF PT right now? I don't know why anyone would sell for less than 1.5 btc.
It seems like low-liquidity markets such as Bitfunder, which often have some random guy sell 100 shares, driving down the price by .1, dictate the price for the rest of the market. It's a strange phenomenon. And it's strange because the rest of the market, as in the Auctions forum, routinely does hundreds of shares of sales without dropping the price. Include the fact that most people want to get 'direct' shares, and you get a pretty good idea of why auctions here are going for 1.5BTC each currently while the price is bad on passthroughs. Not my auction  |
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why are shares so cheap on the BF PT right now? I don't know why anyone would sell for less than 1.5 btc.
It seems like low-liquidity markets such as Bitfunder, which often have some random guy sell 100 shares, driving down the price by .1, dictate the price for the rest of the market. It's a strange phenomenon. And it's strange because the rest of the market, as in the Auctions forum, routinely does hundreds of shares of sales without dropping the price. |
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bump! around 15 hours left
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quadratic > exponential
I don't think that's true either  |
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I am hoping we switch to solo-mining soon. Both pools have suffered downtime issues today, including DDoS attacks, and, in Bitminter's case, pure server overload from the additional ASICMINER power. This results in a great deal of lost profits. Of course, we're getting healthy dividends as is, but we are 20% of the network now and it's time to move  |
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This is definitely the last one today, if you don't believe NOR know math you can go home  If you do either, and buy bitcoins, you will be very rich 
I used a cocktail party example today, regarding bitcoin's utility and adoption:
When 1 person in the ball of 1000 (0.1%) uses bitcoin, it means zero utility and 1 evangelist vs. 999 crowd. It takes 999 one-on-one conversations to tell everybody about a thing that is completely useless, so it is very slow. This must grow by 100% to reach
When 2 people in 1000 (0.2%) use bitcoin, it means 1 utility (utility is defined by number of connections between bitcoin users, expressed as a factorial (k-1)!) and 2/998. It takes 499 conversations to tell about a practically useless thing. This must grow by 100% to reach
4 people in 1000 (0.4%) -> 6 utility (4-1)!, 4/996. It takes 249 conversations to tell about a thing that is slowly getting useful, and the group pressure begins to form, as the same conversation may have 2 bitcoin users. This must grow by 100% to reach
8 people in 1000 (0.8%) -> 5040 utility (8-1)!, 8/992. It takes only 124 conversations (8 times faster spread than when bitcoin had 1 user and no utility, and the utility is growing very fast) This must grow by 100% to reach
16 people in 1000 (1.6%) -> 1.3*10^12 utility (16-1)!, 16/984. SINGULARITYWhen this is reached, the utility tends to infinity. Notice that it took exactly as much time to reach 2 from 1 as it takes to reach 7 billion from 2. In this example, we are now half way between 1 and 2 people, and bitcoin is slowly exhibiting any utility whatsoever. If the utility does not correlate with spread, we will reach $300k anyway, but it will be 3 years from now. If it does correlate, bitcoin adoption can and will happen in 3-6 months. - The utility will grow factorially (factorial growth >> exponential growth(!)) - The spread rate is inversely correlated with the number of current users The number of possible connections between two users out of N is actually N choose 2, which is quadratic... |
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I tried to refute this theory last time someone posted it, but it seems like it does have some correlational confirmation...
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This is not an over reaction. You need to realize that this is a Chinese government sanctioned news outlet. Bitcoin would not be on CCTV if it was not 100% endorsed by the Chinese government. Also btcchina was down for maintenance. |
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ID Username Shares Price
---ACTIVE BIDS---
77 yxt 1 1.3
84 nottm28 3 1.21
73 fhh 50 1.2
82 mrtg 50 1.2
72 Rodyland 20 1.19
76 gog1 75 1.19
80 eastpk 35 1.19
81 Ajay 16 1.19
---OUTBID---
81 Ajay 34 1.19
83 hiima 2 1.19
64 GoldenWings91 1 1.18
65 yxt 1 1.18
66 SilentSonicBoom 2 1.18
67 puexam 1 1.18
68 nlive 50 1.18
69 hephaist0s 5 1.18
70 fpgaminer 15 1.18
71 dozerz 5 1.18
74 box27 1 1.18
75 Nancarrow 18 1.18
78 BigBitz 8 1.18
79 dbasql 3 1.18
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ID Username Shares Price
---ACTIVE BIDS---
57 yxt 1 1.3
63 nottm28 3 1.21
53 fhh 50 1.2
60 mrtg 50 1.2
52 Rodyland 20 1.19
56 gog1 75 1.19
62 eastpk 35 1.19
61 hiima 2 1.19
44 GoldenWings91 1 1.18
45 yxt 1 1.18
46 SilentSonicBoom 2 1.18
47 puexam 1 1.18
48 nlive 9 1.18
---OUTBID---
48 nlive 41 1.18
49 hephaist0s 5 1.18
50 fpgaminer 15 1.18
51 dozerz 5 1.18
54 box27 1 1.18
55 Nancarrow 18 1.18
58 BigBitz 8 1.18
59 dbasql 3 1.18
IDs do not correspond to post numbers, it's part of my script and should be ignored.
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how much mh/s = 1 share?
We are mining at approximately 17 TH/s, so 42.5 MH/s per share. |
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Name | Quantity | Price | Remaining
----------------------------------------------
yxt | 1 | 1.3 | 249
fhh | 50 | 1.20 | 199
mrtg | 50 | 1.20 | 149
Rodyland | 20 | 1.19 | 129
gog1 | 75 | 1.19 | 54
eastpk | 35 | 1.19 | 19
hiima | 2 | 1.19 | 17
GoldenWings91 | 1 | 1.18 | 16
yxt | 1 | 1.18 | 15
SilentSonicBoom | 2 | 1.18 | 13
puexam | 1 | 1.18 | 12
nlive | 50 | 1.18 | -38
As far as I can tell, this is the correct bid table. |
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Assuming 1.9 is invalid: Name | Quantity | Price | Remaining
----------------------------------------------
yxt | 1 | 1.3 | 199
fhh | 50 | 1.20 | 149
mrtg | 50 | 1.20 | 99
Rodyland | 20 | 1.19 | 79
gog1 | 75 | 1.19 | 4
hiima | 2 | 1.19 | 2
GoldenWings91 | 1 | 1.18 | 1
yxt | 1 | 1.18 | 0
SilentSonicBoom | 2 | 1.18 | -2
puexam | 1 | 1.18 | -3
nlive | 50 | 1.18 | -53
(Down to -50) ...left out eastpk's 1.19 bid, which should be up there |
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Voted x6, don't need the coin, I have enough |
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Assuming 1.9 is invalid: Name | Quantity | Price | Remaining
----------------------------------------------
yxt | 1 | 1.3 | 199
fhh | 50 | 1.20 | 149
mrtg | 50 | 1.20 | 99
Rodyland | 20 | 1.19 | 79
gog1 | 75 | 1.19 | 4
hiima | 2 | 1.19 | 2
GoldenWings91 | 1 | 1.18 | 1
yxt | 1 | 1.18 | 0
SilentSonicBoom | 2 | 1.18 | -2
puexam | 1 | 1.18 | -3
nlive | 50 | 1.18 | -53
(Down to -50) |
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Bitcoin prices have always followed the principle of least expectation...
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Double digits incomming I remember when that would've been a bullish statement, way back in July 2012... |
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Bitfountain mentioned in CCTV report! http://tv.cntv.cn/video/C10329/e5ee4fe9a62b4b24b1080327faaafcb7This is as accurate a translation as I can get for that section: On the biggest mining pool in the Bitcoin community [BTCGuild], one miner, with ID 67717, has been at the top of the hashrate rankings for a while. "Oh, that guy is called friedcat, and he runs a company in Shenzhen," [says a Chinese Bitcoiner.] "This 67717 account is the fastest miner in the world." Although there are only 4 people in [friedcat's] company, it is making 286,000 renminbi a day. Not only miners have benefitted from the Bitcoin boom. The mining hardware manufacturers, too, have become centimillionaires [in CNY].
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Wow, they mentioned friedcat |
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