Oh yeah that brings back nostalgia, that game does... So yeah i'd have to say I have played it before maybe once or twice. That game gave me 0.6 BTC when I had 0 in my wallet... I made a very, very high return on that 0.6  |
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i learned a very simple thing: if something guarantees more than 7% per year it is likely not worth looking into it. they all blow up.
that said, i am incredibly eager to learn what your business really is, pirate. i bet it makes a great story..
When I can't make money doing it or just get tired of it, i'll let everyone know. I promise you there will be a lot of people going "WTF, Damn, why didn't I think of that." You can't tell me you haven't thought... If I had a Satoshi for every toothpick sold... WTF, Damn, why didn't I think of making a massive ponzi  Kidding. Thank you pirate |
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PM'd Pirate about withdrawal request, 10 mins later coins are in my wallet. Fassstt  Good luck, Pirate! ppp.... my best is under 30 seconds. Ditto. same here |
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IPO tomorrow  |
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let me guess
nz, australia or uk
fail |
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It does seem like the lenders would be better off buying a mini rig with that kind of money (if someone covers all 3500), or just buying mining bonds.
This is different from the lender investing in a RIG or a mining company because it doesn't depend on difficultly or price of BTC. The lender knows exactly how much he/she will be getting over the next 2 years, with no fluctuation. This is about the same as a bank loan as mentioned earlier in the thread. A large part of bitcoins is not using the banks is it not? I think it would be interesting and more appropriate to have the loan in bitcoins because I will be getting bitcoins from mining, provided the lender doesn't want to be paid back in cash I wont have to convert the coins to cash. 10% APR => 21% over 2 years. To underperform that, you need less than 0.8% returns per month, geometrically averaged over the next 24 months. The difficulty/block reward ratio would need to go up 48 times over the next 24 months in order to even reach 0.8%, let alone a geometric mean of 0.8% over 24 months. It just seems like a sure bet that mining bonds are going to pay out more than this. |
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if this is legit https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=81045.msg910403#msg910403 (the images are posted backwards) is likely that bitcoinica dont know exactly how much money they own me, own you, own anyone, i bet they try to figure out just that looking at logs backups mtgox history etc etc want to speculate when bitcoinica will goon the market and buy bitcoins ,do it but, imo will be stupid to make that, they should seek a private lender instead of going into the market Buying 18K BTC wont move the market much, even if they buy 18K in one go. Right now it will bump from 5.13 to just under 5.2. That would be enough to start a small rally, because the resistance above 5.2 is a little better. |
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Given all the proof you provided, I cannot help but admit that you are right about Pirate. I am withdrawing immediately.  sarcasm |
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That's one happy motherfucker.
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Intriguing, but can you give some more explanation behind the profit calculation? Have you surveyed a market sample, or is that number just an educated guess?
The founder tells me that the number was a result of monitoring actual arbitrage opportunities and calculating the resulting profit. However, since it is a penny auction system, some of the profits are dependent on the number of people who play. The Ringcoin team expects this to be quite high, as the money raised from the IPO will be used to "advertise heavily," according to the document. |
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Enter or update a bid orderPublic spreadsheet for bond sellersSummaryThis is an unofficial mining bond bid orderbook. Its purpose is to increase liquidity in the Bitcoin mining bond market. You are indicating your willingness to buy a specified number of generic 1 MH/s bonds at a specified price by filling out this form. This form may be used to create "bids" without tying up coins on GLBSE for long periods of time. Note: To update your bid, fill the form out again and change some amounts. Please use the same username. Note to orderbook viewers: Please use the bottom bid for each person as the most current information about that person's demand (see previous note). PM me to have your bids removed or modified, if you wish to do so.
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Nope, that's not how it works  "A pair of bonds will be traded on GLBSE for different assets. The pair of bonds will be named HEDGE.<ASSET>.LONG and HEDGE.<ASSET>.SHORT. The .LONG assets believe that the ASSET will meet its contractual obligations as detailed in the HEDGE.<ASSET>.LONG contract. The .SHORT assets believe that the ASSET may not meets its contractual obligations as detailed in the HEDGE.<ASSET>.SHORT contract." Our asset's contractual obligations are to pay 1.28 if Pirate does not default, and 0.32 if he does. Thus, even if Pirate defaults, we will be meeting our obligation, which is to pay out 0.32. Perhaps you mean to make a PIRATE.LONG and PIRATE.SHORT pair? Just an example, the obligation will be specified in the HEDGE.<ASSET>.LONG/SHORT contract. Thus in that contract the obligation would be that the PPT.A bond would return 1.28 BTC at maturity. If it did not then it would not meet its obligation as specified in the HEDGE.<ASSET>.LONG/SHORT contract. For other assets it would be if they return x number of dividends in a set time period. That makes sense, but it would make more sense to call it HEDGE.PIRATE.LONG/SHORT. Just a suggestion. By the way, good idea. |
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Is there any reason all of the active rounds have had their expiration clock set to 83.33 hours?
Yup, that's how I revived them. |
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I'm looking for a loan to expand my mining operations. This is a long term loan lasting 2 years, I will be paying 10% APR. Payments will be quarterly, for a total of 8 even payments. I will be purchasing FPGAs with this loan. I have free electricity but only to a point, the low power usage of FPGAs will assure that I stay under the limit and guarantee me profits. Id prefer no more then 7 lenders with a minimum deposit of 500 bitcoins but Ill consider making exceptions. I will provide ID and whatever else is requested. Feel free to ask questions. These are some past trades Iv completed on this forum, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. It does seem like the lenders would be better off buying a mini rig with that kind of money (if someone covers all 3500), or just buying mining bonds. |
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Promo: zombie rounds!In response to the downtime, I have decided to spend 50 BTC out of pocket to revive some old rounds whose jackpots have already been paid out
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Hey I seem to have lost a deposit. I sent 2 coins to 1K7hjpjHwJSfXAMdyoTU1eALpbF2FQh9vL (transaction ID: 1c15d52b19e4918e74188bb9d12782ee853e2834b6789b7190ec32695c91610e) for http://bitcoinduit.com/rounds/298 it must have happened right after the crash but my client allowed me to send them  Can I get some assistance or maybe a refund? This game: http://bitcoinduit.com/rounds/209 won't let me send a deposit, but there's still time left, and I'm hoping to get the timers reset since there's only 5 hours left. 2btc sent to "tonto's public wallet" edit for explanation: I'm in charge of the Bitcoinduit codebase and wallet, but not the alerter. The alerter is frequently going down recently and we will release a fix soon. In the meantime, refunds are being sent out to anyone who asks for them. |
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Example
Alice own shares of PPT.A but there is risk that Bitcoin Savings & Trust will default causing her to only be paid 0.32 BTC per PPT.A bonds she holds. Alice speculates that BST has a 10% chance of defaulting before she receives payment of 1.28 BTC per bond as promised in the PPT.A contract.
Using a probability of default (PD) of 10%, Alice can calculate her expected loss. Her exposure at a default (EAD) is 1.28 BTC, as she is suppose to be paid 1.28 BTC at the maturity of the bond. If BST does default she is able to recover 0.32 BTC, which is a recovery rate (RR) of 25%. Alice's actual loss given a default (LGD) would be 75%.
The expected loss (EL) is:
EL = PD * LGD * EAD
where,
PD = probability of default
LGD (loss given default) = 1 - RR
RR (recovery rate) = collateral / bond face value
Alice thinks BST has a probability of default of 10%. Using the equation:
EL = 0.10 * 0.75 * 1.28 BTC
EL = 0.096 BTC
Alice would expect to lose 0.096 BTC for every PPT.A bond.
Alice wants to remove this risk, so she purchases some HEDGE.PPT.SHORT bonds.
Bob is a speculator. He sees that HEDGE.PPT.LONG will pay him if PPT pays out the 1.28 BTC at maturity for their bonds in a certain amount of time. He also sees that in case of default by BST, PPT.A will only pay 0.32 BTC per bond. Bob feels that BST only has a 10% chance of defaulting and thus Bob has a 90% chance of receiving a return on his investment. He purchases some HEDGE.PPT.LONG bonds.
At the end of the auction, 900 of the HEDGE.PPT.LONG bonds sell for 0.10 BTC each and 100 of the HEDGE.PPT.SHORT bonds are sold for 0.10 BTC each. The proceeds from the bond sale are then held in trust.
Going back to Alice. She only purchased one HEDGE.PPT.SHORT bond at 0.10 BTC. It turns out that BST did default and was unable to pay interest. This caused PPT.A to only pay Alice 0.32 BTC for the bond that she held. As Alice held 1 of the 100 HEDGE.PPT.SHORT bonds and PPT.A failed to pay the face value at maturity, Alice's HEDGE.PPT.SHORT bond receives her distribution of the funds held in trust. The pot is valued at 100 BTC [900 .LONG bonds * 0.1 BTC + 100 .SHORT bonds * 0.1 BTC]. The 2% fee is imposed on the HEDGE.PPT.LONG proceeds 0.02 * (900 bonds * 0.1 BTC ), which comes out to 1.80 BTC. The total funds distributed to the HEDGE.PPT.SHORT is 98.2 BTC [100 BTC - 1.8 BTC fee]. There are a total of 90 outstanding HEDGE.PPT.SHORT bonds and each bond would receive 1.091111 BTC per bond.
As Alice also received 0.32 BTC from PPT.A and 1.091111 BTC from HEDGE.PPT.SHORT, Alice was still able to make a profit, assuming she did not pay more than 1.4 BTC per PPT.A bond. Bob does take a loss of his speculation as the HEDGE.PPT.LONG matures worthless.
In the case that PPT.A does pay the 1.28 BTC face value at maturity then Alice gets her 1.28 BTC but she loses the 0.10 BTC on the HEDGE.PPT.SHORT bond she purchased. Bob on the other had holds a HEDGE.PPT.LONG bond, and thus gets paid from the pot. Subtracting the fee, the pot is now 99.8 BTC. There are 900 total HEDGE.PPT.LONG bonds, thus, each bond receives 0.1108889 BTC, a 10.9% return for Bob.
Nope, that's not how it works "A pair of bonds will be traded on GLBSE for different assets. The pair of bonds will be named HEDGE.<ASSET>.LONG and HEDGE.<ASSET>.SHORT. The .LONG assets believe that the ASSET will meet its contractual obligations as detailed in the HEDGE.<ASSET>.LONG contract. The .SHORT assets believe that the ASSET may not meets its contractual obligations as detailed in the HEDGE.<ASSET>.SHORT contract." Our asset's contractual obligations are to pay 1.28 if Pirate does not default, and 0.32 if he does. Thus, even if Pirate defaults, we will be meeting our obligation, which is to pay out 0.32. Perhaps you mean to make a PIRATE.LONG and PIRATE.SHORT pair? |
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Note that the summary document was written over a week ago, as a first draft, and should not be treated as completely authoritative.
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GLBSE asset: https://glbse.com/asset/view/REBATEDescription: "BitcoinRebate brings arbitrage and penny auctions together in a new, exciting and most importantly, a profitable way. BitcoinRebate leverages ZipConf to instantly deliver player Bitcoin to multiple exchanges." Essentially, BitcoinRebate uses a penny auction to enable its users to bid for arbitrage opportunities. Whoever wins gets the profit. BitcoinRebate will be both a profitable webapp and a demonstration of ZipConf's potential. "Dividends will be paid to preferred shares on the 1st of every month. In the case that the dividend can not be paid out, the profits will be saved and paid out on the following payment date." "The current estimated profits are 2000 BTC per month, by the second month of operations, which is equal to 1000 BTC in dividends owed to the outstanding 25,000 preferred shares. This corresponds to an average of 0.04 BTC per share, or a 20% monthly return relative to the face value of the preferred share." "This offering is for 25,000 shares." (each share yields 1/50000 of the profits of REBATE to the bearer) Summary document on Google Docs |
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