Hey guys, I did post the formula I'm using earlier to have someone take a look at it... No one gave any feedback.
You're right. I glossed over it, as it didn't look immediately decipherable to me.  Looking at it now.. Here is another shot with the source that calculates 30 day luck: I store blocks as they are found, hashrate is collected every minute, I added some comments to explain what numbers are being used... function getThirtyDayLuck($crud, $diff) {
// get 30 day average time between blocks
$blocks_query = $crud->rawSelect("SELECT COUNT(*) FROM found_blocks WHERE time > DATE_SUB(NOW(), INTERVAL 30 DAY) ORDER BY time DESC");
$blocks = $blocks_query->fetch(PDO::FETCH_ASSOC);
$block_count = $blocks['COUNT(*)'];
$avg_elapsed_seconds = 2592000 / $block_count; // 2592000 seconds = 30 days
// get 30 day hashrate average
$hash_query = $crud->rawSelect("SELECT AVG(global_rate) FROM pool_stats WHERE id > DATE_SUB(NOW(), INTERVAL 30 DAY)");
$hash_avg = $hash_query->fetch(PDO::FETCH_ASSOC);
$hashrate = $hash_avg['AVG(global_rate)'];
// 30 day expected time to block
// Difficulty * 2**32 / hashrate = expected number of seconds to find a block
$thirty_day_expected = round($diff * pow(2, 32) / $hashrate);
// Get luck as %
return percentage($thirty_day_expected, $avg_elapsed_seconds, '2')."%";
}
I'm relatively certain this is accurate, but am open to any suggestion as always.... The immediate problem that jumps out at me is the difficulty changes at least twice a month, closer to three. You need to store some value for each block as it happens, and then calculate it across your range when you display it. This is what I do for Eligius: For each block, store: - average solve time - actual solve time - timestamp of the block then some SQL: for last 10 blocks: SELECT sum(AvgSolveTime) / sum(ActualSolveTime) FROM Luck where Height >= (select min(Height) from (SELECT top 10 Height from Luck where Height <> 0 order by blocktimestamp desc)); for last 12 hours: Select Sum(Luck.AvgSolveTime) / Sum(Luck.ActualSolveTime) FROM Luck Where BlockTimeStamp > (Now - 12 hours); And so forth. You can see the code in github for M's Pool Monitor. M EDIT: Then do a sanity check against a presumably known good source, like p2pool.info.  |
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There are all sorts of things that can affect expected payout. One is luck. Another is how long that user has been here. If both users are past the 3 day PPLNS period, then the numbers are probably caused by luck, but could also be an error on the website. M |
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Someone explain this to me please P2pool Luck Thirty Days 142.57% according to http://minefast.coincadence.com/p2pool-stats.phpDoes this mean on average you would have earned around 50% more on this pool than on say btcguild (which has 95.209% average for 30 days)? Every pool has variance. Right now p2pool appears to be on the positive side of luck. That said, I'm not sure this number is right. According to http://p2pool.info/, it's 127.4%. M |
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Hooray! All 40 AntMiner S3s we ordered will be delivered on Thursday and then shipped same-day to anyone who bought through us on Amazon! For reference, our order times were as follows: 30 units: 2014-06-30 14:03:31 10 units: 2014-06-30 14:10:42 Ps, there's 2 left if anyone's interested  I almost pulled the trigger to grab them, but a bit too high on the price. Don't suppose you'd take 1.6 BTC for them both? I'd accept 1.8 with free shipping within the US. PM me if interested. Let's see... odds of 1.5 BTC hitting ROI: slim to none that makes 1.8 BTC hitting ROI: even less likely I think I'll pass. M |
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That's pretty sweet! Thanks! M |
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Hi, have an old issue, doesn't matter platform (xp, or win7) 32 bit and/or 64bit system.
PJ:API ERROR & word "Zero" across the top, and recently in the preview window, only displays 5 of 10 miner workers.
I'm using BTCGuild's API. Have download the pgm several times, but can't get past this.
also, with using the blockchain.info the calculate/save doesn't not work for me...
any thoughts or advise?
Thanks,
Your sharecounts are causing an internal sign 32-bit variable to overflow. I'm working on changed it to unsigned 64-bit. In the meantime, if you reset your share counts on BTCG, the problem should go away. Or you can wait until I've had time to test my fix. M Hi, tried to reset the share count on BTCG, but the problem still exists. is a new release due out soon ? I'll see if I can get it out soon. M |
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P.S. Hope they work with p2pool!
I would be VERY surprised if they do. M |
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I've been following this thread quite regularly and felt compelled to contribute with a posting. I purchased a total of 14 S3's via two separate Batch 1 orders (Create Times 2014-06-30 14:20:15:0 & 2014-06-30 20:32:58.0) and still haven't received any shipment updates on either of them. I share everyone's frustration regarding this not-so-smooth roll-out, especially since $6,200 USD (10 BTC) of my money is being held up without earning any interest.
After confirming my orders with BitMain, I purchased the necessary amount of PSU's to accommodate this purchase. I have to assume the S3’s I eventually get won’t share the specifications we all thought would come with every device, which means the money I most-likely overspent on PSU’s could have went towards something, ANYTHING else.
I think what gets under my skin the most is it feels as if they are using the overall good reputation as a shield from this mishap. In my opinion, I think this was evident in their statement indicating we could obtain a BS refund or whack ass future discount. I doubt BitMain would agree if I told them I decided, after an agreement we’d made, to deduct the amount I owed them for an S3 by 7.7% because I decided I was going to lower the hashing power/rate by about 30 GH/s as soon as I received it.
The icing on the cake was that I decided not to use the $800 in coupons for two S2’s in the week leading up to the S3 release. Never again will I pre-order with this company. First time, shame on you. Second time, …
Hello Community,
Finally, we can make a promise now. We will open the sales of S3 in the Beijing Time tonight 22:00. Beijing is in the UCT+8:00 Time Zone.
The price will be 0.75 BTC per unit in the first. The first batch of S3 will be shipped between the July 10th and 20th.
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My M's Pool Monitor can do the monitoring/alerting for you. (see sig)
If you're using your own private node, then you can use whatever name you want for each worker, and it'll all go to the same address.
If it's a public node, it's not quite so simple.
M
Hmm.. Yes, I am using public nodes. I'll have to figure something out I may have to join a pool that lists the hash rates publicly like http://61.219.119.37:9332/static/dashboard/miner.html?id=1Fgn9Q9GiV6QtuNegAog1wYpWXDAkt1z6o and use kimonifyto create an API for me out of it Thanks All nodes should list miner hashrates. The simple solution is to use a different address for each miner. M |
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Order date 2014-06-30 14:35:01. Still unshipped.
What the hell? Initial release was planned 10th. Still nothing dammed.
I believe they said between the 10th and 20th. M |
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How can I look up my hashrate quickly and easily for a specific worker? I see my payout address listed on all the p2pool nodes (i.e. http://107.170.116.123:9332/static/ under Payouts if a block were found NOW) Is there a json api or some URL i could bookmark that would quickly give me my hashrate? I want to implement some sort of warning system to alert me if my workers die. If someone knows how to do this, that would be most appreciated My M's Pool Monitor can do the monitoring/alerting for you. (see sig) If you're using your own private node, then you can use whatever name you want for each worker, and it'll all go to the same address. If it's a public node, it's not quite so simple. M |
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the pool average is 11.8%.. so 5% is wasted. I didn't check, but it wouldn't surprise me if p2pool.org does have a 2% fee.
which goes back to Mike Hearn's post - people don't know how p2pool works so they'll just say "11.8% is wasted, lolz, [insert pool name here] is so much better and they charge a lower fee than p2pool charges" and they think p2pool.org is "The P2Pool." It's unfortunate that p2pool.org doesn't present itself better. M |
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it's too bad, I think that guy actually believes 17% is wasted work and he actually thinks there is a 2% fee the pool average is 11.8%.. so 5% is wasted. I didn't check, but it wouldn't surprise me if p2pool.org does have a 2% fee. M |
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Why is DOA shares SO high?
17% work loss AND 2% fee.. oh yeah this is the answer. Use Eliguis 100% FREE
Don't use p2pool.org. There are lots of better and free alternatives. Post your location, I'm sure there's someone here with a node local to you. M |
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Similar text, but not the same. Thanks for the reminder. M |
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Am I the only one seeing less shares lately?
That's how it works when there's more hashrate. The share difficulty goes up, so the number of shares you get will go down. That will affect your payout. However the pool should get more blocks, so it should even out. (Share difficulty is currently at 3.1 million, the highest I've ever seen it.) M |
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Bitmain said on 8th july: The bulk PCB will be arriving tonight, and we will start first batch production tomorrow. First batch usually takes a longer time than later. We may ship the S3 -B1 on or before 14th So keep calm  They said "may". So the 20th is still within their estimate IMHO. M |
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As few pages of posts done i will say...thank you who ever voice i heard in my head to not send any BTC at this moment for s3.
Bitmain is good but already late with this s3 preorder.
Sorry to say but thats reality of small bitcoin miners. None of you who paid can do anything at this stage.
But my prediction is that at least 2 batches will be posted same time. To catch up the backlog.At this moment again purchasing btc and selling it would make you a bit more than all this waiting for s3.
Not spreading fud as i will purchase s3 once guys will shout whats the charge to get it in UK. But at this stage is a bit silly to send btc and wait.
For me no more preorders. I learned the lesson hard way, even if this is bitmain.
Did they not say between the 10th and the 20th? M |
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