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Yeah, nothing is assured. Even if it continues in a near-perfect exponential run for another six months and is at $800 or something, a glitch or government crackdown or exchange hack could send the price down into the nether-reaches again. There is no guarantee, and although the upside potential isn't so hard to get a handle on, it takes people quite a while to ascertain the potential risks.
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If there was some sort of predictable doubling of price, speculation would simply immanentize such price changes, discounted for the market's time value. So it would be a vertical price change.
Not exactly, for three reasons. 1) Predictable by some is not predictable by others. Especially, many people do not yet understand Bitcoin or its growth potential. It seems to take newbies several months before they understand it enough to be comfortable investing in it, and the learning curve can be much longer for the less tech-savvy or less economics-savvy. 2) Short-term volatility throws people off. 3) Most subtly, and I think this is the point that the technical analysts miss: with Bitcoin, "the market" is not a static number of people, but a constantly growing one. Since this growth is mediated by the network effect, the growth of "the market" (the totality of people who have even heard of BTC and take it seriously, know how to buy it and keep it, and are qualified to evaluate BTC as an investment) may well be exponential. |
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Are we still on track?
Yep, on a log scale chart the run-up since January just looks like a straight line. It was lagging just a bit behind until today. |
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$36.5Doesn't feel real without wall pics 
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$36
Really? This slow upward climb is getting pretty boring. We haven't had a drop in prices worth talking about in months. I joined this bitcoin thing for thrill of speculation, not the predictible steady increase in value. Can something interesting happen already? *yaaawwwn* This boringly steady exponential growth is lulling me to sleep. |
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*Moves sell order from 38.43 to 39.78*
I think you got the decimal in the wrong place  |
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We remain on target  |
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Also, once Namecheap gets their Bitcoin API figured out, things will go nuts/dominoes.
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Either way, it should be the same for the last, high, low, and weighted average. It looks ridiculous and illogical to see the Last being higher than the High.
I'd go as far as to say that it damages the image of Mt. Gox for new users. Any investor looks at that and goes, "They can't even get their ticker right??"
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This is called the 'monte carlo fallacy', if it's black it must be red.......soon.
Read again. |
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$35 |
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1) Either Bitcoin goes to $0 in a few years or to very high levels like $10,000/$100,000+.
2) Supposing it's going to the high figures, it logically must traverse a path from its current price of $35 to those high numbers. That path must be very steep on average, or it won't make it there in a few years. The slower it goes right now the faster it will have to eventually go, and it would certainly not be surprising in this scenario if it continued growing rapidly right now.
3) Therefore, if you think there is a decent chance Bitcoin could be successful, there is no cause to be surprised if it continues growing at breaknecks speeds for several years.
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Explained Bitcoin to a room full of people last night.
It went from "Why would you want them, who backs them, isn't this a ponzi?" To "Where can I buy some?" in under 15 minutes.
congrats. how? Let me guess, it was at a "anonymous weed user" meetup? Ah, no. That would've taken only 1 minute. LOL! Nah, it was actually a room full of mostly southern people that were over 50. As to how, I grab a piece of paper and start drawing out how it works. I tell them to stop and ask questions at any time. It's the 4th time I've done it this way, made believers every time. I used to work at Circuit City when it was still in business. If I could sell worthless Monster HDMI cables, I think I can sell worthwhile Bitcoin. Make a Youtube video? |
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r84km7Z7DqVrbb19cnHeq1Paqk8qwwVkf
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We're going to be battling deflation myths all the way up, may as well get used to it.
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Until more information is forthcoming, I'm going to assume OpenCoin's so-called "Ripple" implementation is just another pre-mined alt-coin (XRP), but this time with corporate backing and using Ripple as its mask to get in good with the Bitcoin community. What does OpenCoin care if the debt features of the system never take off and everyone just uses XRP like BTC? They just profit all the more, providing no one notices the bait-and-switch until after the system has reached critical mass.
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The myth of "fair price" is why so many continue to be wowed by exponential network-based growth.
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Well it is kind of Communist, so the flipside is you can always get your own XRP over in the bread line |
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I also think "scam" is an unwarranted accusation. Ugly, brazenly opportunistic crippling of Ripple for profit, false advertizing at this point about bring open source, and misleading statements from some about XRP being valueless - sure. But not a scam. Anyone investing in cryptocurrency has to understand what they're getting into, and that includes investigating these points.
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It seems to me that a PoW task that can only be performed by humans could prevent against a 51% attack. Something like a CAPTCHA whose solution is obvious once found but still takes time to solve and can't be done by computer, yet is totally objective. Generally only math problems seem to have the right characteristics, except that a computer wins on those.
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