revans seems to be a master at this. Classic evader, and bears all the marks of the reasoning errors that leads to. Not worth debating, from what I've seen so far (haven't trawled this whole thread). But how much do you need to see to get the pattern?

Anyone else worried that the DDoS attacks will eventually escalate to physical attacks/infiltrations of MtGox HQ? Obviously the place should be set up with high-security, guards, multi-level access clearance, multiple offices in secret locations, etc. But I assume it's just an office anyone can waltz right up to the door of and slip a stink bomb under the door or etc. Or Karpeles could be kidnapped, moles could infiltrate their teams, etc. Think of the price drop potential. Though of course this would lead to massively more decentralization in the long run. And they are always behind the curve so they will probably not change anything until it an incident has already happened.

In the spirit of positing "what new risks will 1000x growth pose," with the multi-trillion-dollar market cap many of us are hoping for, any centralized exchanges are going to have to be Fort Knox level fortresses.

Here is where Western Union can help, if they do decide to adopt Bitcoin as they are apparently considering.

This is perfect timing.

Well the volatility is offset by the speed of its growth. As it gets less volatile, growth will slow as well. Growth speed and volatility are part and parcel with each other. Overall function as a store of value may even remain constant if these offset each other exactly.

^ Great post.

It's interesting how common misconceptions about Bitcoin shape so much of the market sentiment. Though on the other hand I must say I have found the very surest, most foolproof way to make a profit in the markets is to identify a systematic error or misunderstanding people have and trade against it. Misunderstandings take time to clear up and for their resolutions to percolate through to the everyman. During that time, the misconceptions push the price systematically either too high or too low than what it would be otherwise, so there is a *guaranteed* statistical advantage - guaranteed profit over the long term if you make many investments like this.

Right now Bitcoin is overwhelmingly more valuable as a SOV (store of value) than as an MOE (medium of exchange) even though it is arguably the MOE function that gives backing to the SOV function. This is a subtle point most people (on reddit, for example) aren't able to get, even if they've been in Bitcoin as "true believers" for a long time.

That misunderstanding is a lead weight on the price, and the post-Cyprus surge - resulting in more thought of Bitcoin as a SOV - is evidence of that. This will eventually become the conventional wisdom and by then that lead weight will be fully lifted, with much higher BTC valuations just from that one dispelled misunderstanding alone. Easy money!

Of course there are many many more misunderstandings and confusions and general ignorance that weigh down the price, and that is why this is still around the ground floor of the digital goldrush.

1) Choose a claim and stick to it. Are current bitcoiners too wealth-oriented or is the risk taken by early adopters throwing their hard-earned money and time into a nothing-currency experiment that most people shyed away from disproportionate to their reward?

2) Decentralization does not allow for plutoCRATS, because in a decetralized world there is no long-term overconcentratiom of power that is in any way comparable to the level we have today. Even imagine someone had half the bitcoins that ever existed, just as it was said that the Rothschilds once controlled half the world's wealth through their banking dynasty. This very wealthy individual still would not have access to a money printer, so once he started spending his fortune it'd deplete.

This is what people don't realize. ASICs change nothing except making the network more secure, which can only be called bullish.

Really because the fundamental indicators are all increasing exponentially. Most relevantly the number of people who even know about Bitcoin, as well as those who have taken the time to learn about Bitcoin.

nwbitcoin, your avatar looks like Frost's. Confuses me.

If this range holds, it will be an uncannily exact return to the exponential trendline, as predicted by yours truly

MID-JUNE 2013.

Great minds think alike

I think we will simply return to exponential growth along the original channel OP described here earlier (the black channel). As I said in the original thread, whenever we start wafting above the top of the black channel, the price becomes sensitive to any old reason to crash back down into the channel. If we correct below the bottom of the channel it will be time to worry.

Until then, I'll be yawning like a pro.

BitPay seems to be by far the most competent company in the Bitcoin eosystem. I wish they'd open an exchange.

Bitpay seems like the most competent company in the ecosystem. Why don't Bitpay open some kind of exchange?

Yeah am I the only one who thinks this is InsanityWolf.jpg?

I'm not sure exactly. I hope they are separate.

Also, what about TradeHill?

OP is forgetting attrition. Most of the bears sold wayyyyy early. You don't see them here talking about it because they went into hiding, though some are coming back as the price falls. The ones who called all the peaks and troughs are loud about it, so they overrepresent. A few of them will do that, but most lose their shirts trading and either go away or become strong hands as reality forces them to assess their get rich quick plans more soberly and decide that mere exponential growth is not that bad.

I voted Bitstamp just because it's the only one I've heard nothing bad about, but what about CoinLab?

One thing I've learned from this is how to spot sentiment changes. I had a bunch of theories about bubble indicators:

• Usually level-headed bulls getting inexplicably arrogant and/or dogmatic
• Former bears "seeing the light" for flimsy reasons or only because of their envy at bulls' fortunes
• Bears no longer being predominantly trollish or incoherent thinkers or people missing some obvious fundamental point, but actually raising real potential concerns or actually seeming intelligent and un-arrogant
• Double exponential growth on merely exponential fundamentals
• Glut of speculators with basic knowledge gaps about Bitcoin
• NEWS BLITZ CANNOT BRING IN NEW STRONG HANDS IN TWO WEEKS, because it takes longer than that to learn enough about Bitcoin to become a strong hand

I suspected all these might indicate froth, and it seems I was right. But the final blow-off happened too fast for me to do anything with that knowledge. Next time I'll sell 10% or so as soon as I see these signs.

Both OP and your response make you look very wise in my eyes. もうだいぶ強くなっているよ