Yup, major trendline breakthrough functions as a Schelling point. So it has some definite, measurable influence. However, whales can do what they want. Still, statistically speaking, breaking such a trendline is significant.

Did Vessenes actually take credit for the price rise?

I am already sure, just like in the real world, that EVE's economy works only because their resident economist is relatively hands-off. Fascinating economy they have there, though, complete with real for-profit businesses completely in-game and spontaneously created by players. If only they did this with WoW and the others.

Even if they cheated, the official price would still rise. There have to be a number of big investors who won't/can't get any exposure to BTC until this ETF is created. Dropping a few billion into the pot is going to spike the price in an extreme way, regardless of any shenanigans (which, in any case, should be much harder to pull with a Bitcoin ETF, especially one started by Bitcoin enthusiasts).

this is nice work, but it needs to be on log scale to be useful for comparison in the way I think everyone is hoping for.

Before the Internet, experts were experts. You usually only ever heard a security expert talk about security, an economist talk about economics, or a physicist talk about physics.

Now experts still get audience, same as before, but they can talk about anything. Yet we still have the impression that experts are always reliable, since back when they only spoke about things in their field they generally were. The result is they make a lot more mistakes, and sometimes people get misguided because they trusted the expert.

This is most apparent when non-economists who have no understanding of economics speak on a subject that, unbeknownst to them, actually requires a solid understanding of economics.

Sure an ETF can be used to manipulate prices, but before that this ETF would have to push the Bitcoin price WAYYYYYY higher.

No more Bitcoins for sale?!

If this happened, people would figure out what was going on and distrust the compromised devs. Even if they were threatened not to tell anyone, people would figure it out by their silence and finally by actually looking at the code. If the manipulators were persistent enough, it would just result in all the devs (new devs) being completely pseudonymous, but with reputation, similar to Dread Pirate Roberts. It would slow down development for a while, but not stop it.

I find it basically indisputable that PayPal could streamline its business in quite a few ways by adopting Bitcoin. The only question in my mind is how much that corporate meme of adopting new technology "threats" rather than trying to squash them has really taken root.

The fact that PayPal has mentioned Bitcoin and talked about using it makes me think they are considering it through the former lens. Probably the bottleneck at this point is that there's no guarantee from their perspective that Bitcoin will last and not fail somehow. That possibility brings the business proposition toward the more tenuous "let's do this as a learning experience because we'd like to be at the forefront of cryptocurrency when it fully arrives." I'd like to believe that PayPal is that forward-thinking, but who knows. Maybe next year when Bitcoin is more established.

I also think Western Union might get there first.

It's a stab at a possibly useful indicator.

Looks like a perfectly even split so far. Perhaps this means dumb people are just dumb. Or maybe it means the market will level out from here, settling at around $75 for a while.

Back in April most of the posters I considered "low-caliber" were bulls, and it got me a bit worried to be in such company. What do you think now?

Note 1 : Of course post quality is rather subjective. Feel free to answer subjectively

Note 2: I'm not asking the reverse. That is, I'm not asking whether it is the bulls or the bears who are idiots. I'm talking only about posters you find useless: what is their predominant position. For example, you could vote that the lamest posters are all bulls (or bears), but still legitimately maintain that there are many insightful, intelligent, articulate bulls/bears.

Please do not name names. Everyone has to start somewhere on the learning curve. The point of this is strictly for market insight.

Speculating miners still have to spend (or sell) the coins to obtain any actual real-world benefit. The point being that miners can only hoard insofar as they forego reaping any real-world benefit - that is, only insofar as they do not exert any actual purchasing power. In short, hoarding or control of the money supply comes at a hefty cost.

Moreover, people only hoard coins in order to one day use them. The value appreciation they gain is offset by the risks they take on by not using their coins right away. Everyone has their dis-hoarding point, some immediately, some much later (trading present indulgence for the possibility of greater future gains).

Bitcoin is experiencing a healthy correction, just like gold and silver. Relax.

How do you figure it's bigger? In percentage terms or absolute? In percentage terms the 2011 bubble was bigger and more abrupt. In absolute terms we've already popped way farther than in 2011 (but absolute price should be irrelevant anyway).

Weird sentiment here. Altcoin adoption and government interest in Bitcoin are both bullish for the BTC price.

If you understand Bitcoin and its implications, you know the price must rise very high sooner or later. If you don't understand, go study!

Why? That'd be a worse rout than 2011. I can't see any reason why it should be as bad as 2011, let alone worse.

+1

Though timing might be different.

For what it's worth, I recall Jim Rogers recently said he expects things to start unraveling after summer, or if not then after fall. He's finally buying gold again. He seems to have been right about just about everything, including gold's correction.

My own guess is that BTC will continue sliding down over the next few weeks/months, perhaps to $50 if things get dire enough (very bad news could push it even lower of course), but that the global economy is sitting on a powder keg. Japan especially, but also Europe and the US. The next crisis could come at any time, and when it does Bitcoin (and gold) could skyrocket. Note that depending on the type of crisis the opposite might happen first, temporarily (remember 2008).

Despite my short-term bearishness, I wouldn't be tempted to sell core positions in either asset; there's too much pent up steam to get cute with trading in and out of the long-term play of the century (Bitcoin) or your SHTF insurance policy (gold).