If you switch your charts to a logarithmic scale, things look much less dramatic,
So? Of course it makes things look much less dramatic. That's the whole point of the logarithmic system and a log scale... Don't understand people's obsession with the log scale graph in this forum. It changes nothing...
If you don't understand you probably haven't considered the difference between relative and absolute growth. Relative growth is what matters from an investment perspective. Regular charts distort the changes by magnifying the recent relative changes and shrinking older relative changes. They therefore systematically distort investment decisions. Moreover, Bitcoin is experiencing exponential growth in almost every measurable indicator, including of course price. Log charts are simply far more suited to analysis of exponential growth phenomena; otherwse you have to try to eyeball a exponential curve as if it were superimposed the price movements to check whether it is moving in line with the exponent, which is rather difficult and error-prone. It's way easier to look at a log chart and see whether the price is moving in a straight line or not (the BTC price was, but in the past three weeks it has started lilting upward). |
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This is almost exactly what I see as well. To those that agree: remember, part of the nature of exponential is that continually takes everyone by surprise. It is very hard to eradicate the cognitive biases that cause this effect, even for those that recognize it.
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Perfect storm, indeed. The way things are going you'd almost think we have a mole in the ranks of the elite.
When you think about it, if you were a Rothschild, you may be fabulously wealthy but you still get sick and die, among other unavoidable inconveniences. Bitcoin has the possibility of doing things that even insane wealth cannot: it could make the world so efficient that technology and commercialization and safety standards can all improve to groundbreaking degrees.
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♪Hoooooooooooooooooooold! For the longest time♪
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Crazy fast exponential growth with endless WTF. |
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Bubbling up above exponential again (we are at early/mid-May prices now ($140), according to trendline).
The practical point here is probably that the price is vulnerable to bad news, but otherwise is likely to continue bubbling up for quite some time before reverting to the "merely" exponential mean.
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I personally believe that US Americans are not yet aware of the full scale impact that Bitcoin will have on the world so we could be looking at 1000 $ per BTC by May
That's so true. You can just look at the tenor and lack of research in recent news reports. But, I've also noticed that this time around, there's a bigger batch of people who now understand it, and another new batch of newbs (mainstream media) with the same "criticisms" (misunderstandings) that we've all heard before. This seems to be a cycle as the bitcoin sphere expands further and further out. Planetary shift. |
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20% premium? Seems higher than ever before (not that I've been looking that much, but...)
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We'll see knife-downs aplenty, but it looks like we're going for a giant punctuated by a big bubble top at the end (pricked fairly early if we're lucky)
What are you talking about? Why are we looking for a big bubble top? *scratches head* I remember thinking your posts are usually relatively rational. Later. Not now. First a huge, legitimate, only slightly frothy run-up. A run that large is likely to end in a bubble, but that's just par for the course. Right now I think we are only in a very mildly bubbly situation that will look like nothing compared to what's coming. It is inevitable to have some froth when price runs up so fast and consistently, even if that run is for legit reasons. That froth will only build, even as legit reasons build as well. It'll be a mix; a very profitable mix. To be clear, I expect that "popped bubble" to bring us down to a price much higher than where we are now. Bad news is the only thing that could stop this, but of course bad news is always in the cards. Why not a sustained, semi-exponential rise with many smaller corrections along the way? We can all win this way. Also, no sour taste in the mouth and angry bad vibes from newbs who buy at the top of said bubble. We have been dealing with the negative externalities of the first mega over hyped bubble crash for the past 2 years.. That is sort of what I meant. A big bubble from, say $600 (big froth starts) to $5000 (froth dissipates + panic selling), popping back down to $400 (and continuing the exponential rise again) would be the type of thing I'm talking about. Note: These numbers are pretty arbitrary. Also: Time horizon is the next few weeks and months, barring any major bad news. And also: Confidence level: Hunch  |
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We'll see knife-downs aplenty, but it looks like we're going for a giant punctuated by a big bubble top at the end (pricked fairly early if we're lucky)
What are you talking about? Why are we looking for a big bubble top? *scratches head* I remember thinking your posts are usually relatively rational. Later. Not now. First a huge, legitimate, only slightly frothy run-up. A run that large is likely to end in a bubble, but that's just par for the course. Right now I think we are only in a very mildly bubbly situation that will look like nothing compared to what's coming. It is inevitable to have some froth when price runs up so fast and consistently, even if that run is for legit reasons. That froth will only build, even as legit reasons build as well. It'll be a mix; a very profitable mix. To be clear, I expect that "popped bubble" to bring us down to a price much higher than where we are now. Bad news is the only thing that could stop this, but of course bad news is always in the cards. |
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We'll see knife-downs aplenty, but it looks like we're going for a giant planetary expansion punctuated by a big bubble top at the end (pricked fairly early if we're lucky)
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If we can just HOLD on to the reins of a rampaging bull about to kick into massive overdrive.
All the best, Gentlemen. See you on the other side.
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I'm longing for those old days of actually intelligent, halfway-sensible trolls.
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So long as the community around bitcoin is only interested in denominating the value of their goods/services/investments in USD instead of BTC bitcoin will remain a penny stock and have no chance of becoming a currency. The deflationary nature is a very bad thing for a currency to have and you are all slowly seeing why (while still not connecting the dots and continuing to think bitcoin will actually be a world currency one day). You're so close to getting it.
You tend to forget that bitcoin is really really young and little in capitalization, hence, it is unstable. It will stabilize over the years and then it will be more easy to use for a greater variety of day to day transactions. Gold is deflationary but nobody sees gold as bad!!  The gold standard was abandoned for a reason? Yes, of course. Goverments and bankers couldn't confiscate people's belongings via inflation. Don't you agree? Inflation exists to insure an active economy and is not only a good thing but is entirely necessary for a functioning currency/economy based off of that currency. Out of control inflation can be bad but if your currency gets to pick one nature and your choices are inflation or deflation then the choice is obvious to anyone who doesn't have more conspiracy theories and paranoia than sense. Have you ever taken an economics class or read a paper or book in your entire life? LOL. You swallowed your government propaganda like a good little schoolboy I can see. If the mainstream understood economics they'd stop being perpetually surprised at every development. |
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Doesn't sound like that to me. Plus that would be silly. Why ever not just use Bitcoin?
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4chan, and a few other hosts besides Namecheap.
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The new CEO obviously seeks to sweep out the cobwebs...more like take a high-powered grenade launcher to the cobwebs.
So what about PayPal? They're as hampered by fiat as anyone. Market cap is higher, though. Maybe when BTC reaches $800 they will also decide not to fight the phantom force but to join it.
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