And?

Interesting. This indicates it will be several years before we reach mainstream adoption valuations (~$10,000-$100,000), whereas the 2013 exponential trend has us reaching mainstream early next year. That makes this slower trend look more realistic.

However, this common estimate at BTC price upon reaching mainstream adoption seems like it could be an artifact of the common misconception that Bitcoin derives the bulk of its value from its medium-of-exchange usage. Since it quite obviously derives the vast part of its valuation from its store-of-value functionality, mainstream adoption figures should be far, far higher. Trace Mayer has a figure of several million dollars per bitcoin just to accoint for tax haven accounts all being shifted to Bitcoin. Not to mention everything else. And not to mention the massive efficiency gains Bitcoin will bring about. With all that factored in, this slow exponential growth seems like it could take 20 years to reach mainstream.

Furthermore, adoption curves are S-shaped, meaning it could actually take much longer than this (~50 years) to reach mainstream adoption at this slow rate. This brings us back to the current trendline (doubling every 5 weeks until inflection) as looking quite good again.

Exactly. It never fails to amaze me that people imagine the early adopters multiply their net worth by 100 and then just let it all sit in BTC. Then of course in the next breath they say Bitcoin is going to fail or is worthless so who would want it? Doublethink at its finest.

OP: The main value of Bitcoin is as a store of value, and that invalidates most of your concerns. Also Y U NO LOG CHART?!

ElectricMucus: You seem to have elevated grasping at straws to a fine art I don't have you on ignore, but this is becoming a real pattern. I did enjoy your exponential growth history post, or the idea of much slower exponential growth as a pessimistic possibility (still very bullish long term).

No weekend dip because the crash left plenty of fiat in the exchanges. People don't have to wait until Tues/Wed for their bank transfers to clear.

While news coverage is certainly the most ephemeral of fundamentals, several people in this thread are making the familiar basic error of confusing absolute growth with relative growth. It's like scoffing at the miniscule growth of a penny stock, from $0.01 to $0.03. "What're you so excited about? The price hasn't changed hardly at all. It only grew two cents!"

Same psychological error, different angle. Now I see why rpietila wants to price things in mBTC; it's a natural compensator for this human tendency to confuse the absolute with the relative (a very expensive error for investors).

Price ceilings are set by competition, not cost.

By all means, if you have money in BTC you can't afford to lose, take profits now as it could be a bull trap.

However, keep in mind that the "cheering crowds" at $50 have been and continue to be eclipsed by exponentially larger crowds that only cheer at $100, then only at $200, etc.

"People" and "cheering crowds" point to exponentially growing sets, each with a higher entry point. These are moving goalposts.

As long as the fundamentals continue to grow exponentially, yes. In 2011 the fundamentals were not growing in concert with the price.

"This" (today) is too short-term to tell, but overall since I posted the OP a few months ago the "fast exponential run-up" scenario seems to be playing out to a tee.

"Needless to say, it'd be a white-knuckle roller coaster ride with plenty of euphoria and ample gut-spilling scares. Millionaires and billionaires would be born, profits would be taken heartily all the way up, bubbles would be called constantly, and many would miss the train - perhaps multiple times. Most of all people would be wondering WTF was going on, endless theories would be postulated and debated."

Yes, this. Their immediate interest can only be in boosting their profits in existing business, not jumping into Bitcoin exchange as a business (hardly anyone uses Bitcoin yet!). Bitcoin can drive their back end invisibly from the customer's perspective.

Or customers could choose a "fast cash" option "powered by the Bitcoin network" that is cheaper and faster than usual.

We have people emailing them...we need to appeal to their bottom line, not try to convince them to get into Bitcoin as a business. Once they start using it they may make that decision on their own, but for now it's just a tool to streamline their operations (massively).

Proudhon is Satoshi.

See OP for the methodology. It's a number pulled from my nether-reaches, with a basic grounding in exponential growth since January, tempered by news, sentiment here and on reddit, a few obvious technical considerations, and various miscellaneous indicators that remain in an exponential trend.

In a rapid upsurge, like today, there isn't enough time for most of those things to change so the Bubble-o-Meter will often look similar to a simple percentage change from the exponential trendline (note that it's a lot lower than that right now; the change off exponential is pushing 60% now - at the end of the day this meter is just my personal assessment).

Whether 30% should be taken as a sign to sell, and how much to sell, depends on your portfolio and goals. I don't day trade, so it has to exceed 50% to get my attention.

Selling a few % to strength for portfolio balance is one thing, but dump all your coins?? Uhh, no.

Also, the "fuck you" option should be in the middle, so it looks like the poll itself is flipping you off. Pollmaking 101

Gold treading water. Bitcoin spurting upward.

Good idea, perhaps. Calculating...

For enticement?