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The price, being a little fluffy at the moment, is susceptible to bad news. Bitcoin Central and/or Instawallet getting raided and losing everyone's money would cause a news splash and a crash, especially since it throws cold water on the "move your money out of banks and into Bitcoin" theme that the media is running with. It would be a great buying op, could take us down to $60. Otherwise, we're likely to continue this meteoric rise.
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Evasion, recalcitrance, self-deception. Expensive habits  |
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4.4k wall at $102... very nice! We might just hit $150 in a couple weeks... but then my bubble radar will be going wild!
If it takes a couple weeks that would actually represent a cooldown. It would quiet any bubble alarms I might have had. As for reaching $100? Meh. Wake me up when we reach $1,000. (Exponential trendline support has us there by early September.) |
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A month earlier than I expected (and was teased for) back in Feb.! Feeling a bit frothy, but if it blows off it will go much higher first.
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Congrats to proudhon for manning up. I have a theory that proudhon is really Satoshi, using a brilliant campaign of reverse psychology to magically waft the price higher and higher.
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The smoothster is kickin' ass!
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 asks dwindling away... Based on what was revealed here I'm no longer putting much stock in the MtGox bid-ask spread. It seems way too easy to manipulate for free. Nevertheless, I suspect we break $100 this week (60% confident) or within two weeks (70% confident), but even if it takes until the end of April as I predicted back in February, that will still be perfectly in line with the exponential growth since January. Anything faster than that is gravy or slight froth. |
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Approach $94 and receive the smack down.
It does seem that $94 hold some sort of significance for bears. This is just the old "bash against [psychological barrier -6%] a few times, then shoot over it" pattern. 100 - 6% = 94 50 - 6% = 47 32 - 6% = ~30 20 - 6% = ~19 Even 1 - 6% = 0.94 (back in August 2012) |
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How about somewhere in between? I voted "no" but I'd have picked 85% NO and 15% YES.
Anything over the fast exponential growth trendline since January starts to feel a little bubbly to me (the faster growth of the past few weeks feels a tad frothy), though I can also grant the possibility that we've upshifted to a higher exponent. There is no way to know, but the growth since January has been incredibly steady on a log chart, so it seems best to project that that growth will continue apace. That means the farther above that exponential trendline we float, the more bubbly it feels, the more it starts "cruising for a bruising" where any minor hiccup will send the price temporarily tumbling a we revert to the mean.
Note: This still makes me an uber-bull, expecting $1,000 by October - in line with the exponential trend.
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Just for fun: Quick, without checking, how long has it been since we broke the 2011 all-time high at $32?
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True, the old ATH felt much bigger to us who have been around for a while, but an important aspect of the exponential growth we're seeing is that suddenly most of the speculators are new.
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It's my real name  |
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Most likely is that the usual heave-hoe battering ram pattern that happened at all the other psychological barriers will happen at $100, too. But this time bigger, since it's a big milestone.
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I listen to this several times a day. It's the theme song of the 2013 rally.
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I think the recent growth is 80-90% legit boom, 10-20% froth as people start to blindly pour in money. Hopefully the bear traps will spook the new weak hands enough to bring the froth-o-meter back down, but at these minor froth levels we remain poised for continued strong rally.
As to how many bitcoiners, well there are 22,000 /r/Bitcoin subscribers and at the peak yesterday there were 1,200 of them online. That does not include LURKERS, who might make up a far larger percentage. I'm going to guess half a million bitcoin users worldwide now, growing exponentially.
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Win post. Speculation and /r/Bitcoin will love this.
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Reader comments cleaned that mess of an article up nicely.
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Good, in the long run. Centralization invites attack. Anti-fragile.
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"I'm starting to think that bitcoin as a store-of-value might end up being more attractive than bitcoin as a medium-of-exchange." -Gavin Andresen, 10-17-2010
Yes, that seems to be happening now. However, if MOE function falls too much it will quell SOV advancement (i.e., slow the price rise), which will allow MOE function to grow again, which will eventually spur SOV growth, which will interfere with MOE (but less now, since market cap is bigger), etc. So they may take turns leapfrogging each other.
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