- OK Cupid (7 million users)
- MetArt and sister sites (top-tier porn purveyor in terms of quality)
- A bunch of smaller stuff

It's that plus a bunch of other subjective things I sense and observe. But you're right, I should post a chart. Computer is in the shop, using smartphone for everything. Too lazy for image editing using Skitch or something now.

+5%

Had me scared for a few minutes there, I thought the party was coming to an end

Are you judging by the volume? I know we are in capitulation mode, but I can't decide if it's bottomed or will go a little further (down to $30). The trend is so overwhelmingly negative that it seems momentum could easily carry us down lower, but that could just be blood in the streets while meanwhile the fundamentals continue to grow exponentially.

I think your analysis is closest to mine of anyone on these forums, so it's good we got close to the same figures. (Unless that was tongue-in-cheek )

-5%


($58/BTC; Mild capitulation / mildly negative bubble, still may be some substantial capitulation to work through)

Based on my overall assessment of sentiment and fundamentals vs. price, with exponential growth since Jan. 2013 as the baseline trend outlook. Updated when I feel like it.

Given the shape of the chart now, I'd be a little surprised if $50 holds. We might have to go back down as far below the exponential trendline as we did above it. We got to 4x the trend (4 x 65 = $260), so we *might* need to capitulate at 1/4x the trend (65/4 = $16.25). That's the lowest I can conceive us going, barring bad news. $30 seems more plausible, and $50 may even hold.

In any case, exponential growth will resume, counting from $70. If we go all the way down to the teens it might take several months to recover from the technical damage, though.

When you think about it, a drop to $50 (at least) is needed in order to shake out all the froth and euphoria we had going on. Unless it goes below $30 (and stays there for a while) there won't be any need for a more complicated explanation than that.

Another big piece of infrastructure rapidly coming online: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1cfzru/openbitcoinstore_update_on_beta_we_started_29_new/

True. Survivorship bias is always hard to remember to figure in.

Meanwhile, the fundamentals continue their exponential rise in awesomeness: Coinbase signed on OK Cupid, and Bitpay netted MetArt and all sister sites.

Checking Reddit for signs of capitulation...

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1cfv2t/im_bailing/

Mild, still could go lower, or not. I'm not gonna try to call the bottom, but neither $50 nor $30 would surprise me. Then back onto the 2013 exponential brontosaurus.

You don't get to be "loaded" by being a panicky little bitch like most people

Despair, capitulation starting to ripen...

We need people post-Cyprus buyers desperate enough that it eclipses all trace of the euphoria they felt a week ago, and then some. Are we there yet? I don't know. We seem close at least.

<ahem>

Remember that the exponential trendline since January (cutting out the post-Cyprus bubble) has the price at around $70 now, with support more like $50. We could easily go that low. I'm only going to start worrying if we get below $30.

HOWEVER, a return to the exponential trendline at $70 may sound bad right now, but that same trendlime has us at $1,000 by September and $10,000 by Christmas. Try not to hate on it too much

Patience.

None of the many people that sold on the way up announce it, whereas almost everyone who sold at $200+ trumpets it. If it had gone to $350 (if MtGox had remained fully operational just one day longer) they probably wouldn't have. It's just survivorship bias.

The thing about bubbles is you never know how high they will go. If not for goxlag, we might be in the thousands right now, and "pop" down to the low hundreds. Selling BTC means reducing your position. You might not get on the train again for a long time. 'Tis better not to gamble with something as insanely valuable as a position in bitcoins.