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881  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 25, 2013, 04:00:21 PM
Since the Bitstamp API is broken, here's the Bitstamp info as of 20 seconds ago.

882  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 25, 2013, 03:56:09 PM
When will someone make a service that will truly revolutionize the way we use bitcoin? An app/webservice that would oversimplify the use of bitcoin, making it accessible to the common folk who don't want to spend time getting to know bitcoin. Also something that would mitigate the exchange risk/confirmations duration problem.

It's pretty depressing how slow innovation has been in this regard.  5 years later and user friendliness is still a lonnnnnng way off.  No one has built even, say, an iphone app that lets you send bitcoin to friends with the "scary stuff" running in the background (interfacing w/ public keys, etc.).  Normal people don't give a shit about interfacing with public/private keys.  They want to click on a picture of their friend and send them bitcoins.  This blows people minds in computer science that everyone isn't "technical minded".

In fact, the closest thing so far to being user friendly and "non scary" is probably Coinbase.  Anything else I'd be afraid of recommending to a non-nerd.  Seriously... would you send your grandma to blockchain.info??  lol

Just wait for Trezor. Because if you make it look cute and easy through a fancy app, all that'll happen is thousands of lost bitcoins and PR debacle. Things will happen in their due course, each stage happening when it is ready to happen.
883  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 25, 2013, 03:50:56 PM
When will someone make a service that will truly revolutionize the way we use bitcoin? An app/webservice that would oversimplify the use of bitcoin, making it accessible to the common folk who don't want to spend time getting to know bitcoin. Also something that would mitigate the exchange risk/confirmations duration problem.

This is why I'm not a believer in the recent "mass adoption" rants. Bitcoin is still a bitch to get involved in for the computer illiterate and average Joe.

Who's talking mass adoption right now? The recent volley of good news only means relatively greater adoption than before, therefore relatively higher prices.
884  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 25, 2013, 03:47:41 PM
Stamp is having API issues, and maybe trading issues. Losing its virginity in this choppy market action I guess.
885  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 25, 2013, 03:41:21 PM

Nice article for goldbugs to read. Tokyo meetup is getting good-sized, but these are mostly non-Japanese people, and Osaka meetup is in low single-digits, very nascent, with like 1-2 Japanese. Give it a few weeks and some otaku will make their own group, thanks to Gigazine's very helpful and well-read posts.
886  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Bitcoin cost $1,000 someday? $10,000? My opinion: No. on: October 25, 2013, 03:33:08 PM
I find your lack of vision disturbing Grin
887  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 25, 2013, 03:28:42 PM
What happened is China just bounced off support at 1000. Either this psychological barrier will hold and stem further selling, or it breaks and we correct deeper, to like 150-160. Then we'll be well rested and ready for the continued run-up.
888  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 25, 2013, 03:18:13 PM
Anyone willing to call a bottom?

$160ish

Sounds plausible as an overcorrection. China being so close to 1000 kind of messes up the technical picture, so who knows, but either way quick recovery within the week.
889  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 25, 2013, 03:12:22 PM
Now fully corrected. It might overcorrect a bit more (quite a bit more if China falls through support at 1000), then continue upward. Or it could bounce around here for a few more days before going higher. Either way, it is going higher, past the all-time high. Don't be spooked by violent gyrations, as these are commonplace in Bitcoinland.
890  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mother of all Cups? on: October 25, 2013, 02:22:32 PM
I also think the correction/pause will last a week or so. Given a whole week and given how fast we moved up without ever testing support, a dip down to $140 might even happen, as part of price discovery. If we'd built more of a base at $150 that wouldn't be necessary, but it will of course freak people out, no matter how many volatility warnings they hear in advance. EDIT: I just checked again and we did test support at 150, so I'm revising this to say it's unlikely to correct that far. $160 seems more likely, then probably quickly back up.

Rapid price rises always entail big volatility. It's just the nature of the beast. To think that we'll just go up to $100,000 in a series of smooth rallies and plateaus with never more than tiny corrections is pretty funny, but judging from many of the comments here it's the typical way people actually imagine a bull market, if unwittingly.
891  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mother of all Cups? on: October 25, 2013, 02:12:46 PM
Since going up within the next few days would still feel bubbly, I hope it either camps out around $200 or has a little mini-crash to shake out a few weaklings. I guess a crash would be slightly preferable? Either way, it's soon to go much higher.

Hm, this talk sounds familiar.

Oh yeah, it sounds like the first week of April.

And it sounds stangely familiar to the talk on April 10... something about shaking out the weak hands.

How did that work out again...?

It sounds like what people familiar with the Bitcoin market say during every correction, and yes, it's working out quite well for those who aren't so scared of their own shadow that they jump off whenever the price moves down. Markets. Don't. Move. In. Straight. Lines. The people who realize this will continue taking the money of the people who don't.
892  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - China wall movement tracker on: October 25, 2013, 08:11:45 AM
Where we are is overbought. We needed a breather, and a little crash will do just as well.

With Bitcoin, exponential growth tends to continue until it gets even faster than exponential, at which point it is bound to correct soon. And usually it will overcorrect. Then it usually continues its trend until that trend is exhausted. I definitely do not think this trend (of the past few weeks) is near exhaustion. A correction at the hugely overbought levels of a day or two ago was practically a foregone conclusion. I was expecting it and hoping for it (or for flatlining, but Bitcoin gets bored with that). We still have a few more days of correcting to do before the trend catches up to current price levels, so further correction is welcomed and expected. Then we might overcorrect a bit then get back on the uptrend, or just get straight back on the uptrend.

So far the bouts of selling we are seeing now could hardly be any healthier and expected. It's the quintessential healthy retracement. And probably has a little more correcting to do. Then up!
893  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mother of all Cups? on: October 25, 2013, 04:01:59 AM
Since going up within the next few days would still feel bubbly, I hope it either camps out around $200 or has a little mini-crash to shake out a few weaklings. I guess a crash would be slightly preferable? Either way, it's soon to go much higher.
894  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - China wall movement tracker on: October 25, 2013, 02:49:53 AM
It's really quiet in china today... Probably not a good sign

It's the best sign possible. Going up would be bad, going down would be bad. Only jumping around in a tight range would be equal, but quiet is just as good. We need to take a breather, and being able to do it without having to go down is slightly better than going down and up again.
895  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 25, 2013, 02:47:18 AM
The laggards will still be far better off in a Bitcoin world than they are now (except the bankers, politicians, and most government contractors). A Bitcoin-powered world is one where the pie is immeasurably bigger.
896  Economy / Speculation / Re: What would happen to price if someone would buy Bitcoins with 1 Billion dollars? on: October 24, 2013, 10:28:21 PM
Or someone with $1B would just invest in Bitcoin startups.

Good point, even Fortress was saying the market cap is too low for them to invest. A lot of the money that's now going to startups could start going directly into Bitcoin once the market cap is higher. Not to mention all the hedge funds waiting on the sidelines for the market cap to rise to acceptable levels for them not to be a whale in swimming pool.
897  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin analysis – The coming weeks on: October 24, 2013, 10:24:15 PM
Coming weeks:

Week 1 - Neutral/dippy as we take a breather from the overboughtness
Week 2 - UP
Week 3 - UP
898  Economy / Speculation / Re: What would happen to price if someone would buy Bitcoins with 1 Billion dollars? on: October 24, 2013, 10:01:33 PM
They'd buy through Second Market or Pietila's network or some dark source to avoid slippage, then a while later we'd see steady, massive swells on the exchanges (sort of like we're seeing now, but that could just be China or SR or something else).
899  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin analysis – The coming weeks on: October 24, 2013, 09:55:24 PM
Conflict of interest is a foregone conclusion in Bitcoin. That's just the nature of the beast. You think the Coindesk writers don't own bitcoins?
900  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 24, 2013, 09:50:44 PM
I really wish people would stop worrying so easily (and stop expecting price won't jump around). Learn to shrug off volatility, because it is NOT going to be a smooth ride as we go to $10,000 or $100,000. You'll get shaken off unless you're made of steel.

It was obvious we had to take a breather. Double-exponential growth never lasts. Exponential can, but not double-exponential. Hanging around the $200 mark for a week is required in order to get back onto the exponential trendline, which we got ahead of. We of course won't sit exactly at $200 but will bounce around a bit. It's just killing time until the rise continues.
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